#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights - Indian Rupee depreciated to a one week low in Friday’s trade

1. Currency Highlights
24th
Oct’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee depreciated to a one week low in Friday’s trade
 Euro Zone Consumer Confidence at negative 8-level in current
month
 UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing fell to 10.1 bn Pounds in Sep-
tember
 Belgian NBB Business Climate was at negative 1.8-mark in October
Indian Rupee came under pressure to touch one week low and depre-
ciated around 8 paise to end at 66.89 against the US dollar on Friday.
The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from banks
and importers. Further, weak domestic market sentiments led to neg-
ative movement in the currency.
Moreover, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt markets
kept pressure on the currency. From October 3-19 (in the last 11 con-
secutive sessions), FIIs sold $1.19bn in debt, while in the last six trad-
ing sessions they sold $361.85mn in equity markets.
On the domestic front, India’s new monetary policy committee was concerned about economic growth, and saw the downturn
in retail inflation and slack in the economy as an opportunity to cut the key policy rate, according to the minutes of its first
meeting released on Tuesday which restricted sharp fall in the currency.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.83 to 66.94 in Friday’s trade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for
the dollar was seen at 66.8943 and Euro stood at 72.9750 as on 22nd
Oct’16.
US Dollar Index gained around 0.4 percent in Friday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global markets which led to
increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of estimates
of unfavourable economic data from the country.
Euro against dollar fell around 0.4 percent on Friday on account of strength in the dollar index along with weak global market
sentiments. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of favourable economic data from the region.
Belgian NBB Business Climate was at negative 1.8-mark in October as against a decline of 2.2-level in September. Euro Zone
Consumer Confidence was at negative 8-level in the current month.
The Sterling Pound declined around 0.14 percent in Friday’s trade as a result of strength in the dollar index. Further, weak
global market sentiments kept the currency under pressure. However, sharp fall in the currency was restricted due to favoura-
ble economic data from the country.
UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing declined to 10.1 billion Pounds in September as against a rise of 10.3 billion Pounds in Au-
gust.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.12 percent in Friday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in glob-
al market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 98.62 98.29 0.33 0.33
USD/INR(Spot) 66.92 66.85 0.07 0.10
USD/INR(NseOct) 66.91 66.83 0.08 0.12
EUR/INR(Spot) 72.84 73.03 (0.19) (0.26)
EUR/INR(NseOct) 72.91 73.43 (0.52) (0.71)
GBP/INR(Spot) 81.82 81.95 (0.13) (0.16)
GBP/INR(NseOct) 81.79 82.01 (0.22) (0.27)
JPY/INR(NseOct) 64.50 64.45 0.05 0.08
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR prices have been trading in sym-
metrical triangle pattern and shown breakdown of its
symmetrical triangle pattern. However, price has formed
bearish candle stick on daily chart.
Moreover, price has shown breakdown of its rising trend
line at 65 levels. On the other hand price has shown
breakdown of its rising trend line at 65.60 levels on daily
chart.
Furthermore, prices have been trading below its 21 DE-
MA, which suggest short term trend is negative.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading below
at 45 levels which suggest further weakness in the pric-
es.
So for trading perspective, one could use sell in the
range of 64.45 with SL of 64.80 for Target of 63.80 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has been trading in falling wedge pattern from
past few months and prices have been facing resistance
of its upper band at 67 levels. On daily USDINR prices
have been trading in falling channel formation from past
few weeks and prices have been facing resistance at up-
per band of channel pattern at 67.05 levels.
On the other hand, prices have been facing resistance of
horizontal trend line at 66.95 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor RSI has traded below 60 levels,
which suggest further weakness in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could sell in range 66.95
with SL of 67.25 for target of 66.30.
Currency Highlights
24th
Oct’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.69 66.80 66.85 66.91 66.96 67.02 67.13
JPYINR 63.72 64.06 64.28 64.40 64.62 64.74 65.08

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
24th
Oct’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The EURINR pair has shown breakdown of its descend-
ing triangle pattern at 74 levels on daily chart. On the
other hand price has shown breakdown of its symmet-
rical triangle pattern at 74.80 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below its 21 DE-
MA, which suggest short term trend is down. The pair
has shown breakdown of its horizontal trend line at
74.70 levels on daily chart.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing below 60 which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart, which add more bearishness in
the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 72.20 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
On daily GBPINR prices have been taking support of its
falling trend line at 81.20 levels. Moreover, prices have
been trading below 21 HEMA, which suggest short term
trend looks positive.
The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick
pattern on daily chart, which is bullish pattern.
A momentum indicator MADC has given positive Cross
over on hourly chart, which gives the sign of bullishness
in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading in over-
sold zone levels on daily chart, which suggest the possi-
bilities of bounce back in the in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards
82.60 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 77.84 78.18 74.99 78.52 75.33 78.86 79.20
EURINR 72.81 73.09 73.27 73.37 73.55 73.65 73.93

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
24th
Oct’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
24.10.16 5:20 AM Trade Balance 0.41T 0.21T Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; JPYINR
24.10.16 6:00 AM Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.4 50.6 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; JPYINR
24.10.16 12:30 PM French Flash Manufacturing
PMI
49.7 50.2 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURNR
24.10.16 12:30 PM French Flash Services PMI 53.3 54.3 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
24.10.16 1:00 PM German Flash Manufacturing
PMI
50.9 51.9 More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
EURINR
24.10.16 1:30 PM Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52.7 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
24.10.16 1:30 PM Flash Services PMI 52.2 52.4 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
24.10.16 6:30 PM FOMC Member Dudley
Speaks
More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency; USD
24.10.16 7:15 PM Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.6 51.5 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
24th
Oct’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd,
ou=Research Department,
email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.10.22 13:16:11 +05'30'