#ChoiceBroking #Currencyhighlights - India’s WPI Inflation plunged to 3.57 percent in September

1. Currency Highlights
17th
Oct’2016
HighLights:
 India’s WPI Inflation plunged to 3.57 percent in September
 US Core Retail Sales grew by 0.5 percent in the last month
 Euro Zone Trade Balance at surplus of 23.3 billion Euros in August
 US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to 87.9-mark in Oct’16
Indian Rupee recovered from its lows and appreciated more than 20
paise to end at 66.72 against the US dollar on Friday. The currency
appreciated on account of selling of dollars from banks and exporters.
Further, decline in country’s retail and wholesale inflation data led to
positive movement in the currency.
However, sharp upside in the currency was capped due to outflow of
foreign funds. Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers in
the Indian equity markets as they sold shares worth of Rs.846 crore on
Friday, according to the provisional data available with NDSL. Indian
Rupee moved in the range of 66.7038 to 66.8925 in Friday’s trading
session.
India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation plunged to 3.57 percent in September as against a rise of 3.74 percent in August.
WPI food inflation fell to 5.75 percent in last month from 8.23 percent in August. WPI fuel inflation surged to 5.58 percent in
September when compared to increase of 1.62 percent a month ago. WPI manufacturing inflation grew marginally to 2.48 per-
cent in September with respect to 2.42 percent in August.
US Dollar Index grew by 0.5 percent in Friday’s trading session due to favourable economic data from the country. However,
sharp rise in the currency was capped due to rise in risk appetite in global markets which led to decline in demand for the low
yielding currency.
US Core Retail Sales grew by 0.5 percent in September as against a decline of 0.2 percent in August. Producer Price Index (PPI)
increased by 0.3 percent in the last month. Retail Sales rose by 0.6 percent in previous month as compared to drop of 0.2 per-
cent in August. Core PPI increased by 0.2 percent in September with respect to 0.1 percent a month ago. Prelim UoM Consum-
er Sentiment plunged by 3.3 points to 87.9-mark in October when compared to 91.2-level in September.
Euro against dollar fell around 0.8 percent on Friday on account of strength in the dollar index. However, sharp downside in
the currency was cushioned as a result of favourable economic data from the region along with upbeat global market senti-
ments.
Euro Zone Trade Balance was at a surplus of 23.3 billion Euros in August as against a surplus of 20.8 billion Euros a month ago.
The Sterling Pound dropped around 0.55 percent in Friday’s trade as a result of weaker dollar. However, sharp fall in the cur-
rency was prevented due to upbeat global market sentiments.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.5 percent in Friday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global
market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 98.08 97.53 0.55 0.56
USD/INR(Spot) 66.71 66.79 (0.08) (0.12)
USD/INR(NseOct) 66.81 67.02 (0.21) (0.31)
EUR/INR(Spot) 73.20 73.85 (0.65) (0.89)
EUR/INR(NseOct) 73.65 73.97 (0.32) (0.43)
GBP/INR(Spot) 81.32 81.85 (0.53) (0.65)
GBP/INR(NseOct) 81.81 81.85 (0.04) (0.05)
JPY/INR(NseOct) 64.09 64.63 (0.54) (0.84)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR prices have been trading in sym-
metrical triangle pattern and shown breakdown of its
symmetrical triangle pattern. However, price has formed
bearish candle stick on daily chart.
Moreover, price has shown breakdown of its rising trend
line at 65 levels. On the other hand price has shown
breakdown of its rising trend line at 65.60 levels on daily
chart.
Furthermore, prices have been trading below its 21 DE-
MA, which suggest short term trend is negative.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading below
at 45 levels which suggest further weakness in the pric-
es.
So for trading perspective, one could use sell in the
range of 64.30 with SL of 64.70 for Target of 63.80 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
On daily USDINR prices have been trading in falling
channel formation from past few weeks and prices have
been facing resistance at upper band of channel pattern
at 67.05 levels. The pair has formed bearish candle stick
with appealing volumes.
On the other hand, prices have been facing resistance of
horizontal trend line at 66.95 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DEMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor RSI has traded below 60 levels,
which suggest further weakness in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could sell in range 66.90
with SL of 67.25 for target of 66.20.
Currency Highlights
17th
Oct’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.49 66.68 66.74 66.87 66.93 67.06 67.25
JPYINR 63.27 63.73 63.91 64.19 64.37 64.65 65.11

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
17th
Oct’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The EURINR pair has shown breakdown of its descend-
ing triangle pattern at 74 levels on daily chart. On the
other hand price has shown breakdown of its symmet-
rical triangle pattern at 74.80 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below its 21 DE-
MA, which suggest short term trend is down. The pair
has shown breakdown of its horizontal trend line at
74.70 levels on daily chart.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing below 60 which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart, which add more bearishness in
the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 73 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
On daily GBPINR prices have been taking support of its
falling trend line at 81.20 levels. Moreover, prices have
been trading below 21 HEMA, which suggest short term
trend looks positive.
The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick
pattern on daily chart, which is bullish pattern.
A momentum indicator MADC has given positive Cross
over on hourly chart, which gives the sign of bullishness
in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading in over-
sold zone levels on daily chart, which suggest the possi-
bilities of bounce back in the in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards
83 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 80.77 81.27 81.54 81.77 82.04 82.27 82.77
EURINR 73.07 73.41 73.53 73.75 73.87 74.09 74.43

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
17th
Oct’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
17.10.16 17th-19th M2 Money Supply y/y 11.4% 11.6% Actual< Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
17.10.16 17th-19th New Loans 949B 1000B More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
17.10.16 2:30 PM Final CPI y/y 0.4% 0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
17.10.16 2:30 PM Final Core CPI y/y 0.8% 0.8% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
17.10.16 6:45 PM Industrial Production m/m -0.4% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
17.10.16 9:45 pm FOMC Member Fischer
Speaks
More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
17th
Oct’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.10.15 13:17:10 +05'30'