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Production Operation Management Junaid Zamir SP06-BB-0010
Chapter 1 –  Operations and Productivity
What Is Operations Management? Production is the creation of goods and services Operations management (OM) is the set of activities that creates value in the form of goods and services by transforming inputs into outputs
Organizing to Produce Goods and Services Essential functions: Marketing – generates demand Production/operations – creates the product Finance/accounting – tracks how well the organization is doing, pays bills, collects the money
Why Study OM? OM is one of three major functions (marketing, finance, and operations) of any organization We want (and need) to know how goods and services are produced We want to understand what operations managers do OM is such a costly part of an organization
What  does it covers Planning Organizing Staffing Leading Controlling Basic Management Functions
Design of goods and services What good or service should we offer? How should we design our products and services?  Managing quality How do we define quality? Who is responsible for quality? areas it covers
Process design What process will the product require? What equipment and technology is necessary for these processes? Location strategy Where should we put the facility? On what criteria should we base the location decision? areas it covers
Layout strategy How should we arrange the facility? How large must the facility be to meet our plan? Human resources and job design How do we provide a reasonable work environment? How much can we expect our employees to produce? areas it covers
Supply chain management Should we make or buy this component? Who are our suppliers and who can integrate into our e-commerce program? Inventory, material requirements planning, and JIT How much inventory of each item should we have? When do we re-order? areas it covers
New Trends in OM Global focus Just-in-time performance Supply chain partnering Rapid product development Mass customization Empowered employees Environmentally sensitive production
Productivity Challenge Productivity is the ratio of outputs (goods and services) divided by the inputs (resources such as labor and capital)
Measurement Problems Quality may change while the quantity of inputs and outputs remains constant External elements may cause an increase or decrease in productivity
Productivity Variables Labor  - contributes 10% of the annual increase Capital   - contributes about 38% of the annual increase Management  - contributes about 52% of the annual increase
Chapter 4 –  Forecasting
What is Forecasting? Its is the art and science of predicting a future events. It uses historical data to predict future. It deals in areas of Production Inventory Personnel's
Short-range forecast Generally for less than 3 months Used for planning purchases, job scheduling Medium-range forecast For 3 months to 3 years Sales and production planning, budgeting Long-range forecast 3 +  years New product planning, research and development Forecasting Time Horizons
Distinguishing Differences Medium/long range  forecasts deal with more comprehensive issues and support management decisions regarding planning and  products, plants and processes Short-term  forecasts tend to be more accurate than longer-term forecasts
Product Life Cycle Product design and development critical Frequent product and process design changes Process modifications High production costs Limited models Research & development Forecasting critical Product and process reliability Competitive product improvements and options Increase ability Standardization minor changes Increasing stability of process Product improvement and cost cutting Little product differentiation Cost minimization commonality Introduction  Growth  Maturity  Decline
Types of Forecasts Economic forecasts Address business cycle – inflation rate, money supply, housing starts, etc. Technological forecasts Predict rate of technological progress Impacts development of new products Demand forecasts Predict sales of existing products and services
Forecasting Approaches Used when situation is vague and little data exist New products New technology Involves intuition, experience e.g., forecasting sales on Internet Qualitative Methods
Forecasting Approaches Used when situation is ‘stable’ and historical data exist Existing products Current technology Involves mathematical techniques e.g., forecasting sales of color televisions Quantitative Methods
Qualitative Approaches Delphi method Panel of experts make forecasts Sales force composite Forecasting technique based on salespersons estimates of expected sales. Consumer Market Survey Input from potential customers
Quantitative Approaches Naive approach Assumes demand in next period is the same as demand in most recent period Moving averages It is a series of airthmatic means used to monitor little or no trend Weighted moving average Used when trend is present
Form of weighted moving average Weights decline exponentially Most recent data weighted most Requires smoothing constant  (  ) Ranges from 0 to 1 Subjectively chosen Involves little record keeping of past data Exponential Smoothing
Exponential Smoothing New forecast = Last period’s forecast +  a   ( Last period’s actual demand  –  Last period’s forecast ) F t  = F t  – 1  +   a( A t  – 1  -  F t  – 1 ) where F t = new forecast F t  – 1 = previous forecast a = smoothing (or weighting)  constant  (0  ≤  a  ≤  1)
Forecasting obtained by observing response variable at regular time periods Time Series Forecasting
Persistent, overall upward or downward pattern Changes due to population, technology, age, culture, etc. Typically several years duration  Trend Component
Regular pattern of up and down fluctuations Due to weather, customs, etc. Occurs within a single year  Seasonal Component
Repeating up and down movements Affected by business cycle, political, and economic factors Multiple years duration Often causal or  associative  relationships Cyclical Component 0 5 10 15 20
Unsystematic, fluctuations Due to random variation or unforeseen events Short duration and  nonrepeating  Random Component M T W T F
Chapter 5 –  Design of Goods  and Services
The good or service the organization provides society Top organizations typically focus on core products Customers buy satisfaction, not just a physical good or particular service Fundamental to an organization's strategy with implications throughout the operations function Product Decision
Product Strategy Options Differentiation Shouldice Hospital Low cost Mobile Phones Rapid response Wal-mart
Product Life Cycle Product design and development critical Frequent product and process design changes Process modifications High production costs Limited models Research & development Forecasting critical Product and process reliability Competitive product improvements and options Increase ability Standardization minor changes Increasing stability of process Product improvement and cost cutting Little product differentiation Cost minimization commonality Introduction  Growth  Maturity  Decline
New Product Opportunities Understanding the customer Technological change Political/legal change Market practice, professional standards, suppliers, distributors Developing new products faster can result in a competitive advantage
Quality Function Deployment Identify customer wants Identify how the good/service will satisfy customer wants Relate customer wants to product hows Evaluate competing products Compare performance to desirable technical attributes
Manufacturability and  Value Engineering Benefits: Reduced complexity of products Additional standardization of products Improved functional aspects of product Improved job design and job safety Improved maintainability (serviceability) of the product Robust design
Issues for Product Development Robust design Modular design Computer-aided design (CAD) Computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) Virtual reality technology Value analysis Environmentally friendly design
Defining The Product First definition is in terms of functions specifications are developed during the design phase Manufactured products will have an engineering drawing Bill of material (BOM) lists the components of a product
Engineering drawing Shows dimensions Bill of Material  Lists components, quantities and where used Shows product structure Product Documents
Service Design Service typically includes direct interaction with the customer Increased opportunity for customization Reduced productivity Cost and quality are still determined at the design stage Delay customization Modularization Reduce customer interaction, often through automation
Chapter 6 –  Managing Quality
Defining Quality The totality of features and characteristics of a product or service that bears on its ability to satisfy stated or implied needs American Society for Quality
Quality and Strategy Managing quality supports differentiation, low cost, and response strategies Quality helps firms increase sales and reduce costs Building a quality organization is a demanding task
The Flow of Activities Organizational Practices Leadership, Mission statement, Effective operating procedures, Staff support, Training Yields: What is important and what is to be accomplished Quality Principles Customer focus, Continuous improvement, Benchmarking, Just-in-time, Tools of TQM Yields: How to do what is important and to be accomplished Employee Fulfillment Empowerment, Organizational commitment Yields: Employee attitudes that can accomplish what is important Customer Satisfaction Winning orders, Repeat customers Yields: An effective organization with a competitive advantage
Different Views User-based – better performance, more features Manufacturing-based – conformance to standards, making it right the first time Product-based – specific and measurable attributes of the product
Implications of Quality Company reputation Perception of new products Employment practices Supplier relations Product liability Reduce risk Global implications Improved ability to compete
Key Dimensions of Quality Performance Features Reliability Conformance Durability Serviceability Aesthetics Perceived quality Value
Costs of Quality Prevention costs - reducing the potential for defects Appraisal costs - evaluating products, parts, and services Internal failure - producing defective parts or service before delivery External costs - defects discovered  after delivery
TQM Total Quality is a description of the  culture ,  attitude  and  organization  of a company that strives to provide customers with products and services that satisfy their needs. It covers entire organization, from supplier to customer Requires commitment by managements toward excellence in all aspects of products and services that are important to the customer
Seven Concepts of TQM Continuous improvement Six Sigma Employee empowerment Benchmarking Just-in-time (JIT) Taguchi concepts Knowledge of TQM tools
Continuous Improvement Represents continual improvement of all processes  Involves all operations and work centers including suppliers and customers People, Equipment, Materials, Procedures
Six Sigma Two meanings Statistical definition of a process that is 99.9997% capable, 3.4 defects per million opportunities (DPMO) A program designed to reduce defects, lower costs, and improve customer satisfaction
Employee Empowerment Getting employees involved in product and process improvements Techniques Build communication networks  that include employees Develop open, supportive supervisors Move responsibility to employees
Quality Circles Group of employees who meet regularly to solve problems Trained in planning, problem solving, and statistical methods Very effective when done properly
Benchmarking Determine what to  benchmark Form a benchmark team Identify benchmarking partners Collect and analyze benchmarking information Take action to match or exceed the benchmark
Just-in-Time (JIT) Relationship to quality: JIT cuts the cost of quality JIT improves quality Better quality means less inventory and better, easier-to-employ JIT system
Taguchi Concepts Engineering and experimental design methods to improve product and process design
Tools of TQM Tools for Generating Ideas Check sheets Scatter diagrams Cause-and-effect diagrams Tools to Organize the Data Pareto charts Flowcharts Tools for Identifying Problems Histogram Statistical process control chart
Inspection Involves examining items to see if an item is good or defective Detect a defective product Does not correct deficiencies in process or product It is expensive Issues When to inspect Where in process to inspect It is necessary for both services and good industry.
Chapter 11 –  Supply Chain Management
The Supply Chain Supply chain management is the integration of the activities that procure materials and services, transform them into intermediate goods and the final product, and deliver them to customers
Supply Chain Management Transportation vendors Credit and cash transfers Suppliers Distributors  Accounts payable and receivable Warehousing and inventory Order fulfillment Sharing customer, forecasting, and production information
Make-or-Buy Decisions Maintain core competence Lower production cost Unsuitable suppliers Assure adequate supply (quantity or delivery) Utilize surplus labor or facilities Obtain desired quality Remove supplier collusion Obtain unique item that would entail a prohibitive commitment for a supplier Protect personnel from a layoff Protect proprietary design or quality Increase or maintain size of company Reasons for Making
Make-or-Buy Decisions Frees management to deal with its core competence Lower acquisition cost Preserve supplier commitment Obtain technical or management ability Inadequate capacity Reduce inventory costs Ensure alternative sources Inadequate managerial or technical resources Reciprocity Item is protected by a patent or trade secret Reasons for Buying
Outsourcing Transfers traditional internal activities and resources of a firm to outside vendors Firms outsource information technology, accounting, legal, logistics, and production
Supply Chain Strategies Negotiating with many suppliers Long-term partnering with few suppliers Virtual companies that use suppliers on an as needed basis
Vertical Integration Figure 11.2 Baked goods Computers Watches Calculators Dealers Finished goods (customers) Circuit boards Distribution systems Forward integration Flour milling Integrated circuits Automobiles Current transformation Steel Backward integration Farming Silicon Iron ore Raw material (suppliers) Vertical Integration Examples of Vertical Integration
Virtual Companies Rely on a variety of supplier relationships to provide services on demand Fluid organizational boundaries that allow the creation of unique enterprises to meet changing market demands Exceptionally lean performance, low capital investment, flexibility, and speed
Vendor Selection Vendor evaluation Find potential vendors Determine the likelihood of them becoming good suppliers Vendor Development Training Engineering and production help Establish policies and procedures
Vendor Selection Negotiations Cost-Based Price Model  - supplier opens books to purchaser Market-Based Price Model  - price based on published, auction, or indexed price Competitive Bidding  - used for infrequent purchases but may make establishing long-term relationships difficult
Distribution Systems Trucking Moves the vast majority of manufactured goods Railroads Capable of carrying large loads Airfreight Fast and flexible for light loads May be expensive Waterways Typically used for bulky, low-value cargo
Distribution Systems Pipelines Used for transporting oil, gas, and other chemical products
Chapter 12 –  Inventory Management
Inventory One of the most expensive assets of many companies representing as much as 50% of total invested capital Operations managers must balance inventory investment and customer service
Functions of Inventory To separate various parts of the production process To save firm from fluctuations in demand and provide a stock of goods that will provide a selection for customers To take advantage of quantity discounts To hedge against inflation
Types of Inventory Raw material Purchased but not processed Work-in-process Undergone some change but not completed A function of cycle time for a product Maintenance/repair/operating (MRO) Necessary to keep machinery and processes productive Finished goods Completed product awaiting shipment
ABC Analysis ABC analysis  is a business term used to define an inventory categorization technique often used in material management. Analysis of a range of items which have different levels of significance and should be handled or controlled differently.
ABC Analysis When carrying out an ABC analysis, inventory items are valued  with the results then ranked.  "A class" inventory will typically contain items that account for 80% of total value, or 20% of total items.   "B class" inventory will have around 15% of total value, or 30% of total items.   "C class" inventory will account for the remaining 5%, or 50% of total items.
Record Accuracy Accurate records are a critical ingredient in production and inventory systems Allows organization to focus on what is needed Necessary to make precise decisions about ordering, scheduling, and shipping Incoming and outgoing record keeping must be accurate Stockrooms should be secure
Holding, Ordering, and Setup Costs Holding costs -  holding cost  is money spent to keep and maintain a stock of goods in storage  (rent, space, insurance and security) Ordering costs - the costs of placing an order and receiving goods Setup costs - cost to prepare a machine or process for manufacturing an order
Cycle Counting Items are counted and records updated on a periodic basis Often used with ABC analysis  to determine cycle Has several advantages Eliminates shutdowns and interruptions Eliminates annual inventory adjustment Trained personnel audit inventory accuracy Allows causes of errors to be identified and corrected Maintains accurate inventory records
Independent Versus  Dependent Demand Independent demand - the demand for item is independent of the demand for any other item in inventory Dependent demand - the demand for item is dependent upon the demand for some other item in the inventory
Inventory Models for Independent Demand Basic economic order quantity Production order quantity Quantity discount model
Basic EOQ Model The ordering cost is constant. The rate of demand is constant The lead time is fixed The purchase price of the item is constant i.e no discount is available The replenishment is made instantaneously, the whole batch is delivered at once. Economic order quantity  is the level of inventory that minimizes the total inventory holding costs and ordering costs.   Assumptions :
Reorder Points Inventory level of an item which signals the need for placement of a replenishment order., taking into account the consumption of the item during order lead time and the quantitu required for safety stock.
Production Order Quantity Model Used when units are produced and sold simultaneously
Production Order Quantity Model Inventory level Time Demand part of cycle with no production Part of inventory cycle during which production (and usage) is taking place t Maximum inventory
Quantity Discount Models Reduced prices are often available when larger quantities are purchased TC =  S +  H + PD D Q Q 2
Safety Stock Use safety stock to achieve a desired service level and avoid stockouts ROP  =  d x L  +  ss
Chapter 13 –  Aggregate Planning
Aggregate Planning Aggregate planning  is an operational activity which does an aggregate plan for the productions process, in advance of 2 to 18 months, to give an idea to management as to what quantity of materials and other resources are to be procured and when .
Aggregate Planning Aggregate planning has certain prerequisite inputs which are inevitable. They include: Information about the resources and the facilities available. Demans forecast for the period for which the planning has to be done. Cost of various alternatives and resources. This includes cost of holding inventory, ordering cost, cost of production through various production alternatives
The Planning Process Long-range plans  (over one year) Research and Development New product plans Capital investments Facility location/expansion Intermediate-range plans  (3 to 18 months) Sales planning Production planning and budgeting Setting employment, inventory, subcontracting levels Analyzing operating plans Short-range plans  (up to 3 months) Job assignments Ordering Job scheduling Dispatching Overtime Part-time help Top executives Operations managers Operations managers, supervisors, foremen Responsibility Planning tasks and horizon
Aggregate Planning Strategies Use inventories to absorb changes in demand Accommodate changes by varying workforce size Use part-timers, overtime, or idle time to absorb changes Use subcontractors Change prices or other factors to influence demand
Aggregate Planning Options Hiring, layoff, and training costs may be significant. Avoids the costs of other alternatives. Varying workforce size by hiring or layoffs Inventory holding cost may increase. Shortages may result in lost sales. Changes in human resources. Changing inventory levels Disadvantages Advantages Option
Aggregate Planning Options Loss of quality control; reduced profits; loss of future business. Permits flexibility and smoothing of the firm’s output. Sub-contracting Overtime premiums; tired workers; may not meet demand. Matches seasonal fluctuations without hiring/ training costs. Varying production rates through overtime or idle time Disadvantages Advantages Option
Aggregate Planning Options Uncertainty in demand. Hard to match demand to supply exactly. Tries to use excess capacity. Discounts draw new customers. Influencing demand High turnover/ training costs; quality suffers; scheduling difficult. Is less costly and more flexible than full-time workers. Using part-time workers Disadvantages Advantages Option
Aggregate Planning Options Customer must be willing to wait, but goodwill is lost. May avoid overtime. Keeps capacity constant. Back ordering during high-demand periods Disadvantages Advantages Option