Climate change is anticipated to increase risks from natural hazards like flooding, hurricanes, and landslides. More extreme weather and rising sea levels will displace populations and damage infrastructure. Crop production and food supplies will also be impacted. To reduce risks, we must address underlying vulnerabilities and lack of preparation. Sustainable emergency management requires local involvement, updated plans, resources and building resilience through redundant systems and capacity development. Disaster risks are also linked to poverty, inequality and lack of good governance.

1. Climate Change
and Disaster Management
Prof. David Alexander
Global Risk Forum - Davos

2. Climate change effects

6. Anticipated climate change effects:-
effects:-
• major population increases at coasts
with rising sea level and land loss
• more extreme physical forces lead
to more frequent and intense floods,
hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...
• major changes in food chain:
chain:
crop production, soil erosion, etc.
• disease reservoirs change geographically
• less available coastal land.
land.

7. Wind speed and hurricane damage are
non-linearly related: small increases in wind
speed can lead to huge increases in damage

8. What does the old magnitude-frequency
rule mean in real-life situations?
Magnitude
Logarithm of Frequency Magnitude
return period

9. Risk: value of probable costs and losses
Falling hazard Rising vulnerability
Hazard: probability of occurrence
with diminishing Y
IT
Vulnerability: potential damage
probability of B IL with increasing
RA seriousness of
occurrence E
LN potential
Vertical axis scales:
V U
consequences
HA
ZA
RIS
RD
K
Risk as product
of hazard and
:
vulnerability
Total annual
:
predicted
costs and losses
:
Severity
Fat-tailed
distribution

10. FREQUENCY HAZARD
RISK
MAGNITUDE VULNERABILITY
Catastrophist
viewpoint
RISK
RISK
Uniformitatian
viewpoint
HAZARD HAZARD

11. Hazard or risk
amplified
Arbitrarily defined
disaster threshold
by lack of
mitigation
FREQUENCY OF HAZARD
Frequency /
impact level
RISK (R) OR
Hazard or risk
mitigated
VULNERABILITY (V) OR IMPACT LEVEL

12. World Vulnerability
to Disasters

13. Courtesy of Dr Terry Cannon

14. Courtesy of Dr Terry Cannon

15. Imbalances
Population
Wealth
Poverty
Land area

16. Priorities?
Source: news.bbc.co.uk

17. Katrina:
an emergency
management
dêbacle

18. HURRICANE KATRINA
A balance sheet computed with hindsight:-
hindsight:
• impact scenarios ignored
• forecasts shrugged off
• wind loading factors not taken into
account sufficiently in structural design
• reliance on fallible structural protection
• inadequate emergency plan
• inadequate evacuation
planning and management
• slow and inefficient Federal response
• Hurricane Ivan lessons not implemented.
implemented.

19. A "classquake"

21. Squatter settlement
in Bangladesh Flood level
Normal river level
Rather than mitigating the sources of
vulnerability to disaster, globalisation is
maintaining, exporting and reinforcing
them by its divide-and-rule strategies

22. Disaster risk and poverty

23. Disaster risk and other risk:-
• Intensive risk: high concentration
of mortality and disaster losses
• Extensive risk: geographic dispersal
of population to low-intensity risk
• Everyday risk: crime, political
violence, food insecurity, pollution,
lack of clean water and sanitation
• Poverty: relative and absolute,
leading to marginalisation
• Poverty and vulnerability are
almost (but not quite) synonymous.

24. A double standard: $3,500,000,000 to
save hedge funds, $100,000,000 to
save the victims of Hurricane Mitch

25. In 2005 the rich
countries donated
$4.5 billion to the
countries affected
by the Indian
Ocean tsunami
At the same time,
the U.N. was not
able to raise
$30 million for the
major crisis in Dafur

26. Total:
Total: life is
Newly generally
generated:
generated: precarious Economic:
Economic:
caused by people lack
changes in adequate
circumstances occupation
Vulnerability Technological
Delinquent:
Delinquent: technocratic:
technocratic:
caused by caused by
corruption,
corruption, the riskiness
negligence, Residual:
negligence, Residual: caused by of technology
etc. lack of modernisation

27. Disaster Management
in a Changing World

28. The components of risk
Magnitude
Physical disaster Frequency
Duration
Location of hazard
Exposition
Environment
Lifestyle and earnings
Human Resistance
Health
vulnerability
Adjustments
Resilience Risk reduction activities
Preparations for disaster
After Ian Davis (2005)

29. Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure
= Risk → Disaster
Hazard x WASTE x Exposure
= Risk → Disaster

30. Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable.
Over the period 1950-2000 the world
saw increases of:
• 250% in the number of recorded disasters
• 500% in number of disasters with victims
• 500% in the number of affected people
100
• 1500% in the total 80
152 bn US$
cost of disasters U.S$ billion 60
• 1640% in the cost 40
of insured damage. 20
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Economic losses in disasters

31. Then (1950s) Now (2011)
Under-reporting of More complete
disasters recording
Counting only direct Quantifying indirect
effects effects
Smaller population of Larger population,
hazardous places greater densities
Less inequality Growing inequality and
marginalisation
Less fixed capital at Relentless accumulation
risk of fixed capital
Simpler socio-economic More complex networks
networks

32. Evolving Large
strategic technological
situation hazards
Instability Complex
threats hazards
'Na-
'Na-tech'
Civil Defence (hybrid)
Civil Protection hazards
Enhanced Natural
natural hazards hazards
Evolving Major
climate geophysical
change events

33. Armed aggression
on the part of states Natural disasters
Civil defence Civil protection
"Homeland security" "Civil contingencies"
(civil defence) (resilience)
Armed aggression
"Generic" disasters
on the part of
groups of dissidents

34. Natural Anthropogenic
Techno- Inten-
Natural Social
logical tional
disasters disasters
disasters disasters
Civil
defence
Civil
protection
"Civil
contingencies"
"Homeland
Security"

35. "Civil Civil
contingencies" protection The
management security
industry
Emergencies
and disasters
"Homeland Business
security" continuity
Complex management
emergencies

36. Civil protection:
protection:
What are the what degree of What role for
limits of civil political support? the security
contingencies industry in
management?
management? the general
emergency?
Emergencies
Homeland and disasters
What
security:
security:
relationship
is reduction
of business
in civil liberties
continuity
acceptable?
Complex emergencies:
emergencies: management
How much aid from with civil
donor countries? authorities?

37. Hazard
monitoring &
Disaster forecasting
management
Policies
Major Plans Human &
incident Procedures material
management Protocols resources
Incident
management
Population
(community)
protection

38. Resilience and
Sustainability

39. An asset is not A hazard is not
vulnerable unless hazardous unless
it is threatened Resilience it threatens
by something something
Hazard RISK Vulnerability
Extreme Elements
events at risk
Exposure

40. Knowledge
Knowledge of
of hazards
community
and their
vulerability
impacts
DRR
Knowledge
of coping
Disaster capacity and
Risk resilience
Reduction

41. Population
(community) Plans,
protection procedures,
protocols
Disaster risk
reduction
Hazard
forecasting, Human
monitoring, Incident and material
etc. management resources

42. needs to be needs to be shortened
lengthened
preparation
repair of
for the warning Emergency basic
next event management Reconstruction
services
impact
Sustainable reduction
of risks and impacts

43. Sustainable emergency management:-
management:-
• is centred upon the local level
(but is harmonised from above)
above)
• has the support and
involvement of the population
• is based on plans that are fully
disseminated and frequently revised
• is a fundamental, every-day service
every-
for the population and is taken seriously.
seriously.

44. Attitude:
• positive outlook
RESILIENCE
• ingenious approaches
• searching for solutions
• involving other people
Redundancy
• expensive but worthwhile
• alternative solutions
Preparedness: • extra capacity
• emergency plans
• monitoring & forecasting
• warning & evacuation
• public information

45. -
negative
Risk perception
factors +
positive
Total
vulnerability
Risk DIALECTIC Risk
amplification mitigation
factors factors

46. Mitigation Preparation
and risk and
reduction warning
Linkages
Recovery
Emergency
and
action
reconstruction
Integration
through planning
and training

47. Global drivers
e.g. weak governance
Underlying
risk drivers
e.g. vulnerability
Poverty
Everyday risk
Intensive risk
Extensive risk
Disaster risk and poverty
Poverty Disaster
outcomes impacts

49. Conclusions: what we need:
• governance: the action or
governance:
manner of governing (OED)
• participatory democracy and using
the concept of stakeholders
• transparency, freedom from corruption,
transparency,
economic probity and good government
• the importance of protecting livelihoods
• linking the disaster risk reduction agenda
to the climate change adaptation one.
one.

50. The disaster manager needs...
• to have a political profile
• to be adaptable to rapid and
profound changes in political
priorities, environmental and
demographic circumstances
• to monitor the climate change
agenda, science and debate
• to ensure that his or her
programmes are sustainable.
sustainable.

51. Thank you
for your
attention!