This document discusses crisis and risk management. It defines a crisis as an event that harms the normal livelihood of a population, such as a natural disaster. Risk identification and management are important to mitigate crises. A risk assessment measures the magnitude of potential loss from an event and the probability of it occurring. Risks can be tolerated, treated, terminated, or transferred through strategies like avoidance, reduction, retention, and insurance.
Bijan Yavar is a research fellow, PhD student, and founder and CEO of MEPCO. The document discusses definitions of risk, emergency, crisis, and disaster from perspectives of both certainty and uncertainty. It provides details on definitions of disaster risk and crisis from various sources. Crisis is defined as a point of change that can have both negative and positive outcomes, while disaster refers to events beyond a community's capacity to respond on its own.
Crisis management involves planning, managing, and evaluating responses to crises. Effective crisis management requires:
1) Advance planning through structures, plans for various crisis scenarios, and training exercises.
2) Clear leadership and coordination during a crisis using integrated command systems.
3) Post-crisis evaluation to improve future preparedness and response based on lessons learned.
Risk is defined as an uncertain event that could positively or negatively impact project objectives. Risk management is the systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risks. It involves identifying potential risks, analyzing their likelihood and impact, and developing a risk response plan to mitigate, avoid, transfer, or retain each risk. Key steps in the risk management process include using tools like risk breakdown structures and risk profiles to identify risks, prioritizing risks using qualitative and quantitative approaches, and determining appropriate risk responses to monitor and manage risks throughout the project lifecycle.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in disaster risk reduction including hazard, vulnerability, risk, and disaster. It defines these terms and explains how they are related. The document also outlines the major components of disaster risk management, including risk analysis, risk reduction, disaster management, and recovery. It describes strategies within each component and discusses both progress that has been made and continuing challenges in comprehensive disaster risk management.
An overview of risk management for undergraduates at the University of Wisconsin, Eau Claire. Also includes thoughts on the credit crisis. Preseted on 11.17.09.
The document discusses key aspects of emergency management for sport facilities and events. It defines FEMA as the Federal Emergency Management Agency and their role in coordinating disaster response. Emergency management is defined as preparing for, responding to, and recovering from emergencies. The document also outlines the phases of emergency management including mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. It discusses different types and scopes of emergencies from local to catastrophic. Integrating an emergency management plan into the organizational culture requires staff awareness and training. Having an emergency medical response plan can help facilities rapidly respond to medical situations.
Bijan Yavar is a research fellow, PhD student, and founder and CEO of MEPCO. The document discusses definitions of risk, emergency, crisis, and disaster from perspectives of both certainty and uncertainty. It provides details on definitions of disaster risk and crisis from various sources. Crisis is defined as a point of change that can have both negative and positive outcomes, while disaster refers to events beyond a community's capacity to respond on its own.
Crisis management involves planning, managing, and evaluating responses to crises. Effective crisis management requires:
1) Advance planning through structures, plans for various crisis scenarios, and training exercises.
2) Clear leadership and coordination during a crisis using integrated command systems.
3) Post-crisis evaluation to improve future preparedness and response based on lessons learned.
Risk is defined as an uncertain event that could positively or negatively impact project objectives. Risk management is the systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risks. It involves identifying potential risks, analyzing their likelihood and impact, and developing a risk response plan to mitigate, avoid, transfer, or retain each risk. Key steps in the risk management process include using tools like risk breakdown structures and risk profiles to identify risks, prioritizing risks using qualitative and quantitative approaches, and determining appropriate risk responses to monitor and manage risks throughout the project lifecycle.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in disaster risk reduction including hazard, vulnerability, risk, and disaster. It defines these terms and explains how they are related. The document also outlines the major components of disaster risk management, including risk analysis, risk reduction, disaster management, and recovery. It describes strategies within each component and discusses both progress that has been made and continuing challenges in comprehensive disaster risk management.
An overview of risk management for undergraduates at the University of Wisconsin, Eau Claire. Also includes thoughts on the credit crisis. Preseted on 11.17.09.
The document discusses key aspects of emergency management for sport facilities and events. It defines FEMA as the Federal Emergency Management Agency and their role in coordinating disaster response. Emergency management is defined as preparing for, responding to, and recovering from emergencies. The document also outlines the phases of emergency management including mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. It discusses different types and scopes of emergencies from local to catastrophic. Integrating an emergency management plan into the organizational culture requires staff awareness and training. Having an emergency medical response plan can help facilities rapidly respond to medical situations.
This document discusses earthquake risk in Indonesia and the role of insurance in disaster risk reduction. Indonesia is highly prone to earthquakes due to its location between major tectonic plates. Several major quakes in recent years have caused significant loss of life and property damage. Earthquake insurance provides a means to transfer risk and share the financial burden of potential losses. While insurance can help mitigate risks, it is important it does not reduce incentives for risk reduction and resilience measures.
This document provides guidance on security risk management (SRM) for non-governmental organizations (NGOs). It details a SRM process that includes preparing a security risk assessment (SRA). The SRA process involves assessing the operational context, threats, and vulnerabilities, analyzing risks by evaluating impact and likelihood, and identifying mitigation measures to reduce risks. The overall SRM process aims to help NGOs safely achieve their missions by managing security risks through a standardized, systematic approach.
Why Traditional Risk Management fails in the Oil+Gas Sectorjanknopfler
ย
The document discusses risk management in oil and gas projects. It finds that traditional risk management often fails for such projects due to their unique challenges, including large scale, technology requirements, and sensitivity to market conditions. The highest rated risks for projects are found to be technological and scheduling, while for plant turnarounds the top risks relate to obtaining adequate resources. The document recommends establishing a common risk breakdown structure, holding cross-functional risk workshops, quantifying risks, using specialized risk management software, and clearly communicating high impact risks without mitigation plans.
This chapter discusses risk management and describes the key components of an effective risk management process. It outlines the five main steps: planning, assessment, handling, monitoring, and documentation. Planning involves establishing an organization and procedures for identifying, analyzing, and mitigating risks. Assessment identifies potential risks and analyzes their probability and impact. Handling develops and implements options to reduce probability or impact of risks. Monitoring tracks risks and risk handling effectiveness. Documentation records all risk management activities and results. The process aims to proactively identify and address risks to reduce negative impacts and crises.
British airways brand management,crisis managementMicky Lyf
ย
British Airways, often shortened to BA, is the flag carrier airline of the United Kingdom and the largest airline in the United Kingdom based on fleet size. When measured by passengers carried, it is second-largest in United Kingdom (behind easyJet). The airline is based in Waterside near its main hub at London Heathrow Airport.
A British Airways Board was established by the United Kingdom government in 1972 to manage the two nationalized airline corporations, British Overseas Airways Corporation and British European Airways, and two smaller, regional airlines, Cambrian Airways, from Cardiff, and Northeast Airlines, from Newcastle upon Tyne. On 31 March 1974, all four companies were merged to form British Airways. After almost 13 years as a state company, British Airways was privatised in February 1987 as part of a wider privatisation plan by the Conservative government. The carrier soon expanded with the acquisition of British Caledonian in 1987, followed by Dan-Air in 1992 and British Midland International in 2012.
The document provides an overview of crisis management and business continuity planning. It discusses the basic causes of business crises, defines what constitutes a crisis, and outlines various models and approaches for crisis management. It also defines what a business continuity plan is, describes the key elements and topics that should be covered in a plan, and discusses some common misconceptions about business continuity planning. The overall document serves to introduce the reader to concepts in crisis management and business continuity planning.
1 im ts in colorado emsac november 2011 powerpoint presentationmickitrost
ย
The document discusses Incident Management Teams (IMTs) in Colorado. It describes the IMT structure based on the Incident Command System and different types of IMTs from Type 1 to Type 5 based on size and capabilities. The key roles of an IMT include assisting the existing incident organization with command, control, coordination, support and management. Planning for each operational period is an important IMT function and is outlined in an Incident Action Plan. The document provides guidance on when an IMT may need to be activated such as during multiple operational periods, with large numbers of resources, or heavy media attention.
This document discusses crisis management and provides an overview of key topics including:
- The nature of crises, how they are defined for different organizations, and common features of crises.
- A crisis management model involving antecedent conditions, the intrinsic and perceived crisis, immature and mature crisis responses, and review/feedback.
- Elements of crisis planning including gathering intelligence, assessing risks, risk management, and developing crisis communication plans.
- The importance of identifying audiences, communication methods, and messages as part of crisis communication planning.
The presentation provides guidance on building organizational capacity to effectively manage unforeseen crises through prevention, planning, and developing a crisis-prepared culture.
This presentation is about the Baguio CDRRM-DOC and how it operates during times of emergencies/disasters, based on all applicable mandates and legal basis within its jurisdiction and within the scope of applicable laws. All images used in this presentation are properties and copyrighted by their respective owners. ยฉBaguioCDRRMC 2013. All rights reserved.
This document discusses the concept of resilience. It defines resilience as "the skill and capacity to be robust under conditions of enormous stress and change." While resilience is simple to define, it is difficult to develop in today's complex, rapidly changing world. The document argues that organizational resilience requires the ability to respond quickly to unforeseen changes, even chaotic disruptions. It also discusses the importance of resilience and examines some of the components involved in cultivating resilience within an organization, including strategic planning, infrastructure development, and business continuity planning.
School Incident Management Presentationguestd6096bf
ย
The document discusses key principles of the National Incident Management System (NIMS) and Incident Command System (ICS) and how they can be applied to school-based emergencies. It explains that NIMS provides a standardized framework for incident response that improves coordination between responding agencies. The ICS establishes clear lines of command, management sections, common terminology and organizational structures to effectively respond to various incidents. The document outlines ICS roles and responsibilities and how schools can integrate NIMS and ICS principles into their emergency plans.
The Incident Command System (ICS) is a model for command, control, and coordination of emergency response at the site level.
ICS is โOrganized Common Senseโ
The Risk Management Plan outlines how risks will be managed for a project. It defines roles for identifying, analyzing, and mitigating risks. Risks will be documented in a risk log and the top risks will be prioritized. Key activities include risk identification, analysis, planning mitigation approaches, resolution, and monitoring. Risks will be reevaluated weekly and escalated if mitigation is not effective.
CBIZ Risk Alert: STEPS YOU CAN TAKE TO MANAGE THE RISKSCBIZ, Inc.
ย
Is your organization still sorting through the implications of the disaster and its aftershocks?
If so, you may find the following list of areas to watch and questions to ask helpful as a way to keep your efforts on track in identifying and mitigating the business and financial risks.
For more information visit https:/www.cbiz.com/ras/
The document discusses the Hospital Incident Command System (HICS) used at UCSF Medical Center to coordinate emergency response. HICS provides command, control and coordination during an emergency through a standardized organizational structure with sections for command, operations, planning, logistics and finance. It also outlines the roles and responsibilities of personnel during emergencies, including initiating HICS, setting up a hospital command center, and maintaining personal preparedness kits.
Managing in Tough Times provides guidance for third sector organizations facing financial difficulties. It covers identifying and managing risks, adjusting to changes like staffing pressures, preparing for redundancy or closure. The guide offers advice on communication, consultation, collaboration, mergers and managing finances during tough economic times. The goal is to help organizations continue providing services effectively through periods of uncertainty and change.
COVID-19 Crisis Management Toolkit for Family Business (Executive Summary)Devin DeCiantis
ย
As the short-term impact and longer-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to develop, LGA has developed a collection of slides for you to share freely with your family, your Board and your executives to help them make sense of the situation and build a common vocabulary and toolkit to deal with the crisis.
The slides include practical advice for enterprising families and their key governance entities (Boards, Family Councils, C-Suite, Foundations) for developing a short-term crisis response plan, as well as ideas from our Risk Practice for designing a longer-term Family Enterprise Risk Management (FERM) program. We have also included updated data and analysis on the pandemic more generally.
You can download an Executive Summary here on SlideShare or visit our Crisis Portal at the link below for full reports on each section plus links, videos and additional resources:
https://www.lgassoc.com/insights/covid-19-family-business
Be safe and we hope this is helpful,
- Your LGA Global Advisory Team
This document provides an overview of critical thinking, situation awareness, and decision making. It discusses threat and error management and how critical thinking, situation awareness, and decision making are essential processes in TEM. The document covers topics like gathering data, understanding information, planning ahead, assessing risks, and making choices to control thinking and improve safety. It emphasizes controlling biases, seeking multiple perspectives, and continuously learning to enhance expertise.
The document discusses risk management in IT projects. It defines key risks like threats and vulnerabilities and explains two approaches to risk assessment: qualitative and quantitative. It also outlines four common strategies to manage risks: mitigation, avoidance, acceptance, and transference. Managing risks is important for IT projects to help them be successful and avoid potential problems. Being able to identify, evaluate, and prioritize risks is an essential part of the risk management process.
Risk management is the process of identifying, assessing and controlling threats to an organization's capital and earnings.ย These threats, or risks, could stem from a wide variety of sources, including financial uncertainty, legal liabilities, strategic management errors, accidents and natural disasters
Risks which are not capable of avoidance, prevention, reduction to a large extent or assumption may be transferred from one party to the other party. The basic objective of insurance is to transfer the risk of a person to the insurance company which has easily spread it over a large number of persons insuring similar risks. As such, for handling risks which involve large financial losses or which are dangerous, insurance is a means of shifting such risks in consideration of a nominal cost called premium.
Positioning project, programme and portfolio risk Dr David Hancock
ย
What is meant by risk and is it different from the project, programme, portfolio and organisational perspective. How does it differ fro Major Projects and what about wicked, tame and messes.
This document discusses earthquake risk in Indonesia and the role of insurance in disaster risk reduction. Indonesia is highly prone to earthquakes due to its location between major tectonic plates. Several major quakes in recent years have caused significant loss of life and property damage. Earthquake insurance provides a means to transfer risk and share the financial burden of potential losses. While insurance can help mitigate risks, it is important it does not reduce incentives for risk reduction and resilience measures.
This document provides guidance on security risk management (SRM) for non-governmental organizations (NGOs). It details a SRM process that includes preparing a security risk assessment (SRA). The SRA process involves assessing the operational context, threats, and vulnerabilities, analyzing risks by evaluating impact and likelihood, and identifying mitigation measures to reduce risks. The overall SRM process aims to help NGOs safely achieve their missions by managing security risks through a standardized, systematic approach.
Why Traditional Risk Management fails in the Oil+Gas Sectorjanknopfler
ย
The document discusses risk management in oil and gas projects. It finds that traditional risk management often fails for such projects due to their unique challenges, including large scale, technology requirements, and sensitivity to market conditions. The highest rated risks for projects are found to be technological and scheduling, while for plant turnarounds the top risks relate to obtaining adequate resources. The document recommends establishing a common risk breakdown structure, holding cross-functional risk workshops, quantifying risks, using specialized risk management software, and clearly communicating high impact risks without mitigation plans.
This chapter discusses risk management and describes the key components of an effective risk management process. It outlines the five main steps: planning, assessment, handling, monitoring, and documentation. Planning involves establishing an organization and procedures for identifying, analyzing, and mitigating risks. Assessment identifies potential risks and analyzes their probability and impact. Handling develops and implements options to reduce probability or impact of risks. Monitoring tracks risks and risk handling effectiveness. Documentation records all risk management activities and results. The process aims to proactively identify and address risks to reduce negative impacts and crises.
British airways brand management,crisis managementMicky Lyf
ย
British Airways, often shortened to BA, is the flag carrier airline of the United Kingdom and the largest airline in the United Kingdom based on fleet size. When measured by passengers carried, it is second-largest in United Kingdom (behind easyJet). The airline is based in Waterside near its main hub at London Heathrow Airport.
A British Airways Board was established by the United Kingdom government in 1972 to manage the two nationalized airline corporations, British Overseas Airways Corporation and British European Airways, and two smaller, regional airlines, Cambrian Airways, from Cardiff, and Northeast Airlines, from Newcastle upon Tyne. On 31 March 1974, all four companies were merged to form British Airways. After almost 13 years as a state company, British Airways was privatised in February 1987 as part of a wider privatisation plan by the Conservative government. The carrier soon expanded with the acquisition of British Caledonian in 1987, followed by Dan-Air in 1992 and British Midland International in 2012.
The document provides an overview of crisis management and business continuity planning. It discusses the basic causes of business crises, defines what constitutes a crisis, and outlines various models and approaches for crisis management. It also defines what a business continuity plan is, describes the key elements and topics that should be covered in a plan, and discusses some common misconceptions about business continuity planning. The overall document serves to introduce the reader to concepts in crisis management and business continuity planning.
1 im ts in colorado emsac november 2011 powerpoint presentationmickitrost
ย
The document discusses Incident Management Teams (IMTs) in Colorado. It describes the IMT structure based on the Incident Command System and different types of IMTs from Type 1 to Type 5 based on size and capabilities. The key roles of an IMT include assisting the existing incident organization with command, control, coordination, support and management. Planning for each operational period is an important IMT function and is outlined in an Incident Action Plan. The document provides guidance on when an IMT may need to be activated such as during multiple operational periods, with large numbers of resources, or heavy media attention.
This document discusses crisis management and provides an overview of key topics including:
- The nature of crises, how they are defined for different organizations, and common features of crises.
- A crisis management model involving antecedent conditions, the intrinsic and perceived crisis, immature and mature crisis responses, and review/feedback.
- Elements of crisis planning including gathering intelligence, assessing risks, risk management, and developing crisis communication plans.
- The importance of identifying audiences, communication methods, and messages as part of crisis communication planning.
The presentation provides guidance on building organizational capacity to effectively manage unforeseen crises through prevention, planning, and developing a crisis-prepared culture.
This presentation is about the Baguio CDRRM-DOC and how it operates during times of emergencies/disasters, based on all applicable mandates and legal basis within its jurisdiction and within the scope of applicable laws. All images used in this presentation are properties and copyrighted by their respective owners. ยฉBaguioCDRRMC 2013. All rights reserved.
This document discusses the concept of resilience. It defines resilience as "the skill and capacity to be robust under conditions of enormous stress and change." While resilience is simple to define, it is difficult to develop in today's complex, rapidly changing world. The document argues that organizational resilience requires the ability to respond quickly to unforeseen changes, even chaotic disruptions. It also discusses the importance of resilience and examines some of the components involved in cultivating resilience within an organization, including strategic planning, infrastructure development, and business continuity planning.
School Incident Management Presentationguestd6096bf
ย
The document discusses key principles of the National Incident Management System (NIMS) and Incident Command System (ICS) and how they can be applied to school-based emergencies. It explains that NIMS provides a standardized framework for incident response that improves coordination between responding agencies. The ICS establishes clear lines of command, management sections, common terminology and organizational structures to effectively respond to various incidents. The document outlines ICS roles and responsibilities and how schools can integrate NIMS and ICS principles into their emergency plans.
The Incident Command System (ICS) is a model for command, control, and coordination of emergency response at the site level.
ICS is โOrganized Common Senseโ
The Risk Management Plan outlines how risks will be managed for a project. It defines roles for identifying, analyzing, and mitigating risks. Risks will be documented in a risk log and the top risks will be prioritized. Key activities include risk identification, analysis, planning mitigation approaches, resolution, and monitoring. Risks will be reevaluated weekly and escalated if mitigation is not effective.
CBIZ Risk Alert: STEPS YOU CAN TAKE TO MANAGE THE RISKSCBIZ, Inc.
ย
Is your organization still sorting through the implications of the disaster and its aftershocks?
If so, you may find the following list of areas to watch and questions to ask helpful as a way to keep your efforts on track in identifying and mitigating the business and financial risks.
For more information visit https:/www.cbiz.com/ras/
The document discusses the Hospital Incident Command System (HICS) used at UCSF Medical Center to coordinate emergency response. HICS provides command, control and coordination during an emergency through a standardized organizational structure with sections for command, operations, planning, logistics and finance. It also outlines the roles and responsibilities of personnel during emergencies, including initiating HICS, setting up a hospital command center, and maintaining personal preparedness kits.
Managing in Tough Times provides guidance for third sector organizations facing financial difficulties. It covers identifying and managing risks, adjusting to changes like staffing pressures, preparing for redundancy or closure. The guide offers advice on communication, consultation, collaboration, mergers and managing finances during tough economic times. The goal is to help organizations continue providing services effectively through periods of uncertainty and change.
COVID-19 Crisis Management Toolkit for Family Business (Executive Summary)Devin DeCiantis
ย
As the short-term impact and longer-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to develop, LGA has developed a collection of slides for you to share freely with your family, your Board and your executives to help them make sense of the situation and build a common vocabulary and toolkit to deal with the crisis.
The slides include practical advice for enterprising families and their key governance entities (Boards, Family Councils, C-Suite, Foundations) for developing a short-term crisis response plan, as well as ideas from our Risk Practice for designing a longer-term Family Enterprise Risk Management (FERM) program. We have also included updated data and analysis on the pandemic more generally.
You can download an Executive Summary here on SlideShare or visit our Crisis Portal at the link below for full reports on each section plus links, videos and additional resources:
https://www.lgassoc.com/insights/covid-19-family-business
Be safe and we hope this is helpful,
- Your LGA Global Advisory Team
This document provides an overview of critical thinking, situation awareness, and decision making. It discusses threat and error management and how critical thinking, situation awareness, and decision making are essential processes in TEM. The document covers topics like gathering data, understanding information, planning ahead, assessing risks, and making choices to control thinking and improve safety. It emphasizes controlling biases, seeking multiple perspectives, and continuously learning to enhance expertise.
The document discusses risk management in IT projects. It defines key risks like threats and vulnerabilities and explains two approaches to risk assessment: qualitative and quantitative. It also outlines four common strategies to manage risks: mitigation, avoidance, acceptance, and transference. Managing risks is important for IT projects to help them be successful and avoid potential problems. Being able to identify, evaluate, and prioritize risks is an essential part of the risk management process.
Risk management is the process of identifying, assessing and controlling threats to an organization's capital and earnings.ย These threats, or risks, could stem from a wide variety of sources, including financial uncertainty, legal liabilities, strategic management errors, accidents and natural disasters
Risks which are not capable of avoidance, prevention, reduction to a large extent or assumption may be transferred from one party to the other party. The basic objective of insurance is to transfer the risk of a person to the insurance company which has easily spread it over a large number of persons insuring similar risks. As such, for handling risks which involve large financial losses or which are dangerous, insurance is a means of shifting such risks in consideration of a nominal cost called premium.
Positioning project, programme and portfolio risk Dr David Hancock
ย
What is meant by risk and is it different from the project, programme, portfolio and organisational perspective. How does it differ fro Major Projects and what about wicked, tame and messes.
This document discusses operational risk management (ORM) for flight safety courses. It provides an overview of ORM, defines key ORM concepts like risk and hazard, and outlines the six-step ORM process of identifying hazards, assessing risks, analyzing risk control measures, making control decisions, implementing controls, and supervising and reviewing the process. The goal of ORM is to protect personnel and resources while maximizing capabilities and mission effectiveness.
This document summarizes the key findings of a collaboration between the World Economic Forum and other organizations on the topic of global risks. It identifies several current global risks that are highly likely or damaging, such as terrorism, pandemics, and natural disasters. However, it also examines how certain risks are interconnected and how the combination of multiple risks can create greater impacts, as was seen with Hurricane Katrina. The document argues for more collaborative, multistakeholder approaches to improve understanding and mitigation of global risks.
Introduction to Risk ManagementMana.6330OverviewTatianaMajor22
ย
The document provides an overview of risk management, including definitions of risk, types of risk (operational, reputational, business, cyber), categories of corporate risk, approaches to managing risk (avoidance, reduction, transfer, retention), sources of risk that can lead to crisis, and the stages of crisis management (pre-crisis, crisis response, post-crisis). It also discusses risk fundamentals such as perception of risk, risk approaches, cause and effect analysis, resilience, risk management processes, and factors to consider within an organization.
Calculation of Estimated Risk for Individual/Familymandalina landy
ย
Risk is an undesirable future event that may or may not occur. There are several types of risks including likely events, events with high impact, events outside of your control, and unknown events. Risk management involves identifying risks, reducing risks, contingency planning, and risk monitoring. Risk exposure is a calculation that assigns a numeric value to risks by multiplying the probability of occurrence by the total loss, allowing risks to be compared. A risk matrix is an alternative tool that can prioritize risks differently than risk exposure calculations. Property damage refers to harm caused to public or private property either by people who are not the owners or by natural phenomena.
Risk management: the systematic application of management policies , procedures and practices to the tasks of identifying , analysing , assessing , treating and monitoring risk.
This document discusses the concepts of risk and risk management. It defines risk as the chance of harm, loss, or negative consequences. Risks can be physical, financial, or related to reputation. Risk management involves identifying risks, measuring their probability and severity, controlling risks through prevention or mitigation, and financing risks through insurance or other means. The document provides examples of different types of risks like political risk and discusses challenges in practical risk management like organizational competence and conflicting objectives.
CHAPTER 7ย Risk Assessment, Security Surveys, and PlanningLEARNIN.docxchristinemaritza
ย
CHAPTER 7ย Risk Assessment, Security Surveys, and Planning
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After completing this chapter, the reader should be able to
ยท โ ย define risk and risk assessment.
ยท โ ย list and describe five distinct types of risk that threaten individuals and organizations.
ยท โ ย discuss management techniques associated with risk elimination, reduction, and mitigation.
ยท โ ย evaluate risks to determine vulnerability, probability, and criticality of loss.
ยท โ ย conduct a risk assessment utilizing subjective as well as objective measurements.
ยท โ ย conduct a security survey.
ยท โ ย analyze needs identified through a risk assessment.
ยท โ ย develop appropriate courses of action to eliminate, reduce, or mitigate risks identified in a risk assessment.
ยท โ ย discuss the importance of the budget process.
ยท โ ย demonstrate knowledge of crime prevention through environmental design.
ยท โ ย demonstrate knowledge of emergency planning.
INTRODUCTION
A major focus for security management is the concept of risk. Subjective information as well as objective measurement instruments (such as a security survey) are used in an essential first step of a planning process designed to identify and assess the threat posed by each risk source. As the planning process proceeds, security personnel make recommendations and determine the financial impact of any potential risk mitigation strategy. Planning activities also involve preparation for emergency situations and consideration of anticrime measures available through environmental manipulation.
THE CONCEPT OF RISK
Risk Defined
Riskย may be defined as the possibility of suffering harm or loss, exposure to the probability of loss or damage, an element of uncertainty, or the possibility that results of an action may not be consistent with the planned or expected outcomes. A decision maker evaluates risk conditions to predict or estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes. From a security perspective, risk management is defined as the process involved in the anticipation, recognition, and appraisal of a risk and the initiation of action to eliminate the risk entirely or reduce the threat of harm to an acceptable level. A risk involves a known or foreseeable threat to an organizationโs assets: people, property, information, or reputation. Risk cannot be totally eliminated. However, effective loss prevention programs can reduce risk and its impact to the lowest possible level. An effective risk management program can maximize asset protection while minimizing protection costs (Fay,ย 2000; Fischer & Janoski,ย 2000; Kovacich & Halibozek,ย 2003; Robbins & Coulter,ย 2009; Simonsen,ย 1998; Sweet,ย 2006).
Types of Risk
Generally, risk is associated with natural phenomena or threats created by human agents. Natural risks arise from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, and storms. Risks created by human beings include acts or failures to act that lead to crime, accidents, or environmental disaster. As many as five distinct types of risk threaten individuals a ...
Case Study on Risk management in M&A_Anuj Kamble_Veronica BarredaAnuj Kamble
ย
This document provides an overview of risks involved in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and risk management processes. It defines risk and discusses different types of risks companies may face, including business, market, credit and liquidity risks. It then explains what risk management is and why it is important for identifying risks and developing strategies. The document outlines the M&A process and various financial risks involved at different stages. It emphasizes the role of risk management in mitigating risks and improving the success of M&A deals. The document uses a case study of a pharmaceutical industry merger to evaluate risks, opportunities and provide recommendations.
Risk management in software engineeringdeep sharma
ย
The document discusses risk management in software engineering. It defines risk as a potential problem that may or may not occur, causing negative impacts. It categorizes risks as project risks, technical risks, and business risks. It outlines the risk management paradigm of identifying, analyzing, planning, tracking, controlling, and communicating risks. It also discusses establishing a risk mitigation, monitoring and management plan to document the risk analysis work. The key is to identify risks early, evaluate and prioritize them, then develop and implement risk mitigation plans.
This document provides information on how to conduct a risk assessment. It defines key terms like risk, hazard, and probability levels. It presents a decision matrix for evaluating risk with categories from catastrophic to negligible harm. It then outlines the 5 simple steps to conducting an assessment: 1) identify hazards, 2) decide who could be harmed, 3) establish control measures, 4) record findings and inform those at risk, and 5) regularly review the assessment. The overall goal is to understand and reduce risks in the workplace.
The document discusses risk assessment, job safety analysis, and hazard identification for construction site work. It provides definitions and guidelines for conducting risk assessments and job safety analysis (JSA). The key points are:
1) Major accidents on construction sites are often due to lack of knowledge about job hazards and controls. JSA helps by training workers on task hazards and safe work procedures.
2) JSA involves breaking jobs into steps, identifying hazards for each step, and developing control measures. It improves safety understanding and ensures written work methods.
3) Examples of a risk assessment and JSA are provided to demonstrate how they identify hazards for activities like scaffold erection and dismantling, and establish preventive measures.
effective risk management systems can best be achieved in an atmosphere of trust.
Successful risk management provides assurance that the organisationโs objectives will be
achieved within an acceptable degree of residual risk.13 It also creates an environment in which
quality improvement occurs as the natural consequence of the identification, assessment and
elimination or minimisation of risk. Risk management can therefore also be considered as an
aspect of the organisationโs ongoing continuous quality improvement program.
This document defines key terms related to disaster management and public health, describes the causes and phases of disasters, and explains concepts of emergency management. It defines terms like crisis, disaster, hazard, vulnerability, risk, and emergency. It discusses how development can increase vulnerability to disasters and explains the five phases of a disaster: pre-emergency, impact, acute, post-emergency, and repatriation/rehabilitation. The document also outlines the public health impacts of disasters and the four phases of emergency management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.
Module 1 - Introduction to Risk Management.pdfmarjondimafilis
ย
This document provides an introduction to risk management. It begins by defining risk and different approaches to defining risk. It then discusses the four main types of risks: compliance, hazard, control, and opportunity risks. It also covers risk classification systems and how to describe risks. Finally, it discusses the origins of risk management and its importance for managing organizations and changes in the marketplace.
An overview of natural hazards, focusing on tectonic and early warning systmes; leans very heavily on the article: "Global early warning systems for natural
hazards: systematic and people-centred
By Re?d Basher*"i
The document provides information on risk assessment, job safety analysis (JSA), and how to conduct them properly. It discusses that the majority of construction accidents are due to lack of knowledge about job hazards and controls. JSA covers this gap by training workers on each job task and how to perform it safely. It outlines the steps to conduct a JSA, including selecting a job, breaking it into steps, identifying hazards for each step, developing controls, and monitoring. The benefits of JSA include improved safety understanding and ensuring written work methods for all jobs.
This document provides an overview of the history of food as culture in Armenia dating back to 8000 BCE. It discusses how ancient Armenian agriculture and culinary traditions have influenced other ancient civilizations and survived into modern cuisine. The document also presents the concept of "conscious food" or meaningful eating, which values food based on its viability rather than calories. It emphasizes the spiritual nature of humans and our connection to nature. Finally, it provides an introduction to the digestion process and the relationship between digestion and mental activity.
This document discusses the concept of conscious eating from an ethnobotanist and food technologist's perspective. It covers several key points:
1) A culture's food culture expresses its traditional skills and is based on how food impacts thinking, psychology, philosophy, behavior and lifestyle.
2) For Armenians, eating is more dependent on consciousness than the food itself.
3) It provides an overview of the Armenian food pyramid and discusses the basics of natural nutrition, including how the body digests and processes foods like carbohydrates, fats, and proteins.
4) Protein is particularly important as it forms and develops the person and is necessary for life. Those who cannot digest protein will die
Agriculture inovation is future of armenia strategic adviceARMEN MEHRABYAN
ย
Armenia has opportunities to become a center for agricultural innovation between Europe and Asia by leveraging its strategic location, climate conditions, and trade agreements. The document proposes establishing an Agriculture and Food Production Innovation Center to help agribusinesses innovate, compete, and reach new markets through services like product development, processing advice, and market access support. Investing in the Center could strengthen Armenia's agricultural sector and rural incomes by promoting high-value production like organic crops and functional foods in demand globally.
2019 armenian agriculture and economic crisesARMEN MEHRABYAN
ย
This document discusses strategies for Armenia to address an impending economic crisis and strengthen its agriculture sector and rural livelihoods. It recommends shifting from an input-based model to a knowledge-based, innovative system tailored to local conditions. Key steps for the government include identifying vulnerabilities, boosting education and research, protecting genetic resources, strengthening extension services, and pursuing both short-term relief and long-term strategies. Main challenges are developing infrastructure, ensuring food availability and safety, improving land management, promoting organic production, and cultivating high-value crops through advanced technologies. The overall goal is to enhance resilience, food security, and rural incomes in a sustainable manner.
2018 armenian agriculture policy development notesARMEN MEHRABYAN
ย
1. Armenia's agriculture sector faces challenges including low productivity, lack of innovation and investment, and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Most of the country's poor live in rural areas and depend on agriculture for their livelihoods.
2. To respond to food security demands and maximize agricultural performance, the government needs to shift from an input-based model to knowledge-based, innovative practices. It must strengthen training, research, and extension systems while improving market infrastructure, food availability, and the regulatory environment.
3. The main challenges for Armenia's food industry are developing market and regulatory systems, increasing productivity through new technologies and management practices, and improving access to financing while conserving genetic resources and the environment. National agriculture
Dr. Armen Mehrabyan established the Armenian Dinner Concept in 1998 in Boston to prepare and share traditional Armenian dishes. The concept is based on a philosophy of "conscious eating" that considers the relationship between food, nature, and society. Meals are prepared according to the food calendar and seasons rather than fashion, and aim to communicate and unite people through food. The Armenian dinner evenings bring together chefs and food experts from around the world to experience and discuss Armenian culinary traditions and philosophy.
Armenian agriculture chellenges and opportunities 2018ARMEN MEHRABYAN
ย
This document provides recommendations for improving agriculture and rural development in Armenia from 2018-2025. It identifies key challenges such as economic uncertainties, climate change, and poverty. Opportunities include Armenia's favorable location, climate, soil, and trade agreements. The document recommends focusing on community livelihood enhancement, high value agriculture, innovation, and market integration to boost incomes and food security. It also proposes establishing an Agriculture and Food Production Innovation Centre to help businesses innovate and access markets. The overall goal is to develop a sustainable agriculture sector that improves rural livelihoods and reduces vulnerability.
CapTechTalks Webinar Slides June 2024 Donovan Wright.pptxCapitolTechU
ย
Slides from a Capitol Technology University webinar held June 20, 2024. The webinar featured Dr. Donovan Wright, presenting on the Department of Defense Digital Transformation.
A Free 200-Page eBook ~ Brain and Mind Exercise.pptxOH TEIK BIN
ย
(A Free eBook comprising 3 Sets of Presentation of a selection of Puzzles, Brain Teasers and Thinking Problems to exercise both the mind and the Right and Left Brain. To help keep the mind and brain fit and healthy. Good for both the young and old alike.
Answers are given for all the puzzles and problems.)
With Metta,
Bro. Oh Teik Bin ๐๐ค๐ค๐ฅฐ
A Visual Guide to 1 Samuel | A Tale of Two HeartsSteve Thomason
ย
These slides walk through the story of 1 Samuel. Samuel is the last judge of Israel. The people reject God and want a king. Saul is anointed as the first king, but he is not a good king. David, the shepherd boy is anointed and Saul is envious of him. David shows honor while Saul continues to self destruct.
Andreas Schleicher presents PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Thinking - 18 Jun...EduSkills OECD
ย
Andreas Schleicher, Director of Education and Skills at the OECD presents at the launch of PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Minds, Creative Schools on 18 June 2024.
This document provides an overview of wound healing, its functions, stages, mechanisms, factors affecting it, and complications.
A wound is a break in the integrity of the skin or tissues, which may be associated with disruption of the structure and function.
Healing is the bodyโs response to injury in an attempt to restore normal structure and functions.
Healing can occur in two ways: Regeneration and Repair
There are 4 phases of wound healing: hemostasis, inflammation, proliferation, and remodeling. This document also describes the mechanism of wound healing. Factors that affect healing include infection, uncontrolled diabetes, poor nutrition, age, anemia, the presence of foreign bodies, etc.
Complications of wound healing like infection, hyperpigmentation of scar, contractures, and keloid formation.
How to Manage Reception Report in Odoo 17Celine George
ย
A business may deal with both sales and purchases occasionally. They buy things from vendors and then sell them to their customers. Such dealings can be confusing at times. Because multiple clients may inquire about the same product at the same time, after purchasing those products, customers must be assigned to them. Odoo has a tool called Reception Report that can be used to complete this assignment. By enabling this, a reception report comes automatically after confirming a receipt, from which we can assign products to orders.
1. Crisis and Risk Management
(introductive description)
Russia, North Caucasus, 2006
Prepared by Dr. Armen Mehrabyan
Crisis means that normal livelihood of population is harmed by disaster. It could be any
disaster including natural. Thatโs why risk identification and management are important.
Livelihood with
development Livelihood
interventions (5) recovered
crisis 5
by own
Normal baseline 4 6
means (6)
livelihood 3Livelihood with
2 emergency (3) or
Effect of 1
rehabilitation
crisis on
interventions (4)
livelihood Livelihood after
Thresholds
shock (1) - after crisis (1)
- with coping mechanism (2)
Livelihood with - food secure (3)
coping - economical secure (4)
- improved livelihood through
mechanism (2) development (5)
Source: Matthias Molle (Beneficiary Assessment Methodology)
Once risks have been identified, they must then be assessed as to their potential severity
of loss and to the probability of occurrence. These quantities can be either simple to
measure, in the case of the value of a lost building, or impossible to know for sure in the
case of the probability of an unlikely event occurring. Therefore, in the assessment
process it is critical to make the best educated guesses possible in order to properly
prioritize the implementation of the risk management plan.
The fundamental difficulty in risk assessment is determining the rate of occurrence since
statistical information is not available on all kinds of past incidents. Furthermore,
evaluating the severity of the consequences (impact) is often quite difficult for immaterial
assets. Asset valuation is another question that needs to be addressed. Thus, best educated
opinions and available statistics are the primary sources of information. Nevertheless,
risk assessment should produce such information for the management of the organization
that the primary risks are easy to understand and that the risk management decisions may
be prioritized. Thus, there have been several theories and attempts to quantify risks.
Numerous different risk formulae exist, but perhaps the most widely accepted formula for
risk quantification is:
Rate of occurrence multiplied by the impact of the event equals to risk.
2. Later research has shown that the financial benefits of risk management are less
dependent on the formula used but are more dependent on the frequency and how risk
assessment is performed.
In business it is imperative to be able to present the findings of risk assessments in
financial terms. Robert Courtney Jr. (IBM, 1970) proposed a formula for presenting risks
in financial terms. The Courtney formula was accepted as the official risk analysis
method for the US governmental agencies. The formula proposes calculation of ALE
(annualized loss expectancy) and compares the expected loss value to the security control
implementation costs (cost-benefit analysis).
3.1. Risk Assessment
Risk assessment is measuring two quantities of the risk R, the magnitude of the potential
loss L, and the probability p that the loss will occur.
Risk assessment may be the most important step in the risk management process, and
may also be the most difficult and prone to error. Once risks have been identified and
assessed, the steps to properly deal with them are much more programmatical.
A risk assessment is an important step in mitigating the impacted of climate changes. It
helps you focus on the risks that really matter with the potential to cause real harm. This
proposed methodology of risk assessment tells you how to achieve that with a minimum
of fuss. This is not the only way to do a risk assessment and there are other methods that
work well, particularly for more complex risks and circumstances. However, we believe
this method is on of the most straightforward.
A risk assessment is simply a careful examination of what could cause harm to people, so
that you can weigh up whether you have taken enough precautions or should do more to
prevent harm. Workers and others have a right to be protected from harm caused by a
failure to take reasonable control measures.
Natural disasters can ruin lives and affect country business. Thatโs why it is required to
assess the risks so that you put in place a plan to control the risks.
3.1.1. Five steps to risk assessment
๏ Identify the hazards
๏ Decide who might be harmed and how
๏ Evaluate the risks and decide on precautions
๏ Record your findings and implement them
๏ Review your assessment and take appropriate measures
Part of the difficulty of risk management is that measurement of both of the quantities in
which risk assessment is concerned can be very difficult itself. Uncertainty in the
3. measurement is often large in both cases. Also, risk management would be simpler if a
single metric could embody all of the information in the measurement. However, since
two quantities are being measured, this is not possible. A risk with a large potential loss
and a low probability of occurring must be treated differently than one with a low
potential loss but a high likelihood of occurring. In theory both are of nearly equal
priority in dealing with first, but in practice it can be very difficult to manage when faced
with the scarcity of resources, especially time, in which to conduct the risk management
process. Expressed mathematically,
Financial decisions, such as insurance, often express loss terms in dollars. When risk
assessment is used for public health or environmental decisions, there are differences of
opinions as to whether the loss can be quantified in a common metric such as dollar
values or some numerical measure of quality of life. Often for public health and
environmental decisions, the loss term is simply a verbal description of the outcome, such
as increased cancer incidence or incidence of birth defects. In that case, the "risk" is
expressed as:
If the risk estimate takes into account information on the number of individuals exposed,
it is termed a "population risk" and is in units of expected increased cases per a time
4. period. If the risk estimate does not take into account the number of individuals exposed,
it is termed an "individual risk" and is in units of incidence rate per a time period.
Population risks are of more use for cost/benefit analysis; individual risks are of more use
for evaluating whether risks to individuals are "acceptable".
Risk of losses due to vulnerability and Benefit gain
Potential risk treatments
Once risks have been identified and assessed, all techniques to manage the risk fall into
one or more of these four major categories: (Dorfman, 1997) (remember as 4 T's)
๏ท Tolerate (aka retention)
๏ท Treat (aka mitigation)
๏ท Terminate (aka elimination)
๏ท Transfer (aka buying insurance)
Ideal use of these strategies may not be possible. Some of them may involve trade-offs
that are not acceptable to the organization or person making the risk management
decisions.
4.1. Risk avoidance
Includes not performing an activity that could carry risk. Avoidance may seem the
answer to all risks, but avoiding risks also means losing out on the potential gain that
accepting (retaining) the risk may have allowed.
4.2. Risk reduction
Involves methods that reduce the severity of the loss. Modern software development
methodologies reduce risk by developing and delivering software incrementally. Early
methodologies suffered from the fact that they only delivered software in the final phase
of development; any problems encountered in earlier phases meant costly rework and
often jeopardized the whole project. By developing in iterations, software projects can
limit effort wasted to a single iteration. A current trend in software development,
5. spearheaded by the Extreme Programming community, is to reduce the size of iterations
to the smallest size possible, sometimes as little as one week is allocated to an iteration.
4.3. Risk retention
Involves accepting the loss when it occurs. True self insurance falls in this category. Risk
retention is a viable strategy for small risks where the cost of insuring against the risk
would be greater over time than the total losses sustained. All risks that are not avoided
or transferred are retained by default. This includes risks that are so large or catastrophic
that they either cannot be insured against or the premiums would be infeasible. Any
amounts of potential loss (risk) over the amount insured are retained risk. This may also
be acceptable if the chance of a very large loss is small or if the cost to insure for greater
coverage amounts is so great it would hinder the goals of the organization too much.
4.4. Risk transfer
Means causing another party to accept the risk, typically by contract or by hedging.
Insurance is one type of risk transfer that uses contracts. Other times it may involve
contract language that transfers a risk to another party without the payment of an
insurance premium. Liability among construction or other contractors is very often
transferred this way. On the other hand, taking offsetting positions in derivatives is
typically how farms use hedging to financially manage risk.
Some ways of managing risk fall into multiple categories. Risk retention pools are
technically retaining the risk for the group, but spreading it over the whole group
involves transfer among individual members of the group. This is different from
traditional insurance, in that no premium is exchanged between members of the group up
front, but instead losses are assessed to all members of the group.
Risk Management
Risk management is the process of measuring, or assessing, risk and developing
strategies to manage it. Strategies include transferring the risk to another party, avoiding
the risk, reducing the negative effect of the risk, and accepting some or all of the
consequences of a particular risk. Traditional risk management focuses on risks stemming
from physical or legal causes (e.g. natural disasters or fires, accidents, death, and
lawsuits). Financial risk management, on the other hand, focuses on risks that can be
managed using traded financial instruments.
In ideal risk management, a prioritization process is followed whereby the risks with the
greatest loss and the greatest probability of occurring are handled first, and risks with
lower probability of occurrence and lower loss are handled in descending order. In
practice the process can be very difficult, and balancing between risks with a high
probability of occurrence but lower loss versus a risk with high loss but lower probability
of occurrence can often be mishandled.
Intangible risk management identifies a new type of risk - a risk that has a 100%
probability of occurring but is ignored by the organization due to a lack of identification
ability. For example, when deficient knowledge is applied to a situation, a knowledge risk
6. materializes. Relationship risk appears when ineffective collaboration occurs. Process-
engagement risk may be an issue when ineffective operational procedures are applied.
These risks directly reduce the productivity of knowledge workers, decrease cost
effectiveness, profitability, service, quality, reputation, brand value, and earnings quality.
Intangible risk management allows risk management to create immediate value from the
identification and reduction of risks that reduce productivity.
Risk management also faces difficulties allocating resources. This is the idea of
opportunity cost. Resources spent on risk management could have been spent on more
profitable activities. Again, ideal risk management minimizes spending while
maximizing the reduction of the negative effects of risks.
5.1. Steps in the risk management process
Establishing the context involves
1. Planning the remainder of the process.
2. Mapping out the following: the scope of the exercise, the identity and objectives of
stakeholders, and the basis upon which risks will be evaluated.
3. Defining a framework for the process and an agenda for identification.
4. Developing an analysis of risk involved in the process.
5.2. Identification
After establishing the context, the next step in the process of managing risk is to identify
potential risks. Risks are about events that, when triggered, cause problems. Hence, risk
identification can start with the source of problems, or with the problem itself.
๏ท Source analysis Risk sources may be internal or external to the system that is the
target of risk management. Examples of risk sources are: stakeholders of a drought
project, employees of a trading company, etc.
๏ท Problem analysis Risks are related to identify threats. For example: the threat of
losing crop/profit, the threat of abuse of privacy information or the threat of accidents
and casualties. The threats may exist with various entities, most important with
shareholder, customers and legislative bodies such as the government.
When either source or problem is known, the events that a source may trigger or the
events that can lead to a problem can be investigated. The chosen method of identifying
risks may depend on culture, industry practice and compliance. The identification
methods are formed by templates or the development of templates for identifying source,
problem or event.
Common risk identification methods are:
๏ท Hazards risk identification. Identification the risks on the base of most frequently
hazards.
๏ท Objectives-based risk identification. Organizations and project teams have
objectives. Any event that may endanger achieving an objective partly or completely
7. is identified as risk. Objective-based risk identification is at the basis of Enterprise
Risk Management - Integrated Framework
๏ท Scenario-based risk identification. In scenario analysis different scenarios are
created. The scenarios may be the alternative ways to achieve an objective, or an
analysis of the interaction of forces in, for example, a market or battle. Any event that
triggers an undesired scenario alternative is identified as risk.
5.3. Risk Charting
This method combines the above approaches by listing Resources at risk, Threats to those
resources Modifying Factors which may increase or reduce the risk and Consequences it
is wished to avoid. Creating a matrix under these headings enables a variety of
approaches. One can begin with resources and consider the threats they are exposed to
and the consequences of each. Alternatively one can start with the threats and examine
which resources they would affect, or one can begin with the consequences and
determine which combination of threats and resources would be involved to bring them
about
5.4. Create the plan
Decide on the combination of methods to be used for each risk. Each risk management
decision should be recorded and approved by the appropriate level of management.
The risk management plan should propose applicable and effective security controls for
managing the risks. For example, an observed high risk of drought in agriculture could be
mitigated by acquiring and implementing Early Warning System. A good risk
management plan should contain a schedule for control implementation and responsible
persons for those actions.
According to ISO/IEC 27001, the stage immediately after completion of the Risk
Assessment phase consists of preparing a Risk Treatment Plan, which should document
the decisions about how each of the identified risks should be handled. Mitigation of risks
often means selection of Security Controls, which should be documented in a Statement
of Applicability, which identifies which particular control objectives and controls from
the standard have been selected, and why.
5.5. Implementation
Follow all of the planned methods for mitigating the effect of the risks tray to avoid all
risks that can be avoided without sacrificing the entity's goals, reduce others, and retain
the rest.
5.5.1. Review and evaluation of the plan
8. Initial risk management plans will never be perfect. Practice, experience, and actual loss
results will necessitate changes in the plan and contribute information to allow possible
different decisions to be made in dealing with the risks being faced.
Risk analysis results and management plans should be updated periodically. There are
two primary reasons for this:
1. to evaluate whether the previously selected mitigation methods are still applicable
and effective, and
2. to evaluate the possible risk level changes in the business environment.
5.5.2. Limitations
If risks are improperly assessed and prioritized, time can be wasted in dealing with risk of
losses that are not likely to occur. Spending too much time assessing and managing
unlikely risks can divert resources that could be used more profitably. Unlikely events do
occur but if the risk is unlikely enough to occur it may be better to simply retain the risk
and deal with the result if the loss does in fact occur.
Prioritizing too highly the risk management processes could keep an organization from
ever completing a project or even getting started. This is especially true if other work is
suspended until the risk management process is considered complete.
It is also important to keep in mind the distinction between risk and uncertainty. Risk can
be measured by impacts x probability.
5.5.3. Areas of risk management
As applied to climate changes, risk management is the technique for measuring,
monitoring and controlling the agriculture operational risk on a farm's balance sheet. The
Basel II framework breaks risks into market risk (price risk), credit risk and operational
risk and also specifies methods for calculating capital requirements for each of these
components.
5.5.4. Farming Enterprise risk management
In farming enterprise risk management, a risk is defined as a possible event or
circumstance that can have negative influences on the Agriculture Enterprise in question.
Its impact can be on the very existence, the resources (human and capital), the products
and services, or the customers of the enterprise, as well as external impacts on society,
markets, or the environment. In a financial institution, enterprise risk management is
normally thought of as the combination of credit risk, market risk, interest rate risk, and
operational risk.
In the more general case, every probable risk can have a pre-formulated plan to deal with
its possible consequences (to ensure contingency if the risk becomes a liability).
9. From the information above and the average cost per employee over time, or cost accrual
ratio, a project manager can estimate:
๏ท the cost associated with the risk if it arises, estimated by multiplying employee costs
per unit time by the estimated time lost (cost impact, C where C = cost accrual ratio
* S).
๏ท the probable increase in time associated with a risk (schedule variance due to risk, Rs
where Rs = P * S):
๏ท Sorting on this value puts the highest risks to the schedule first. This is intended to
cause the greatest risks to the project to be attempted first so that risk is minimized as
quickly as possible.
๏ท This is slightly misleading as schedule variances with a large P and small S and vice
versa are not equivalent. (The risk of the RMS Titanic sinking vs. the passengers'
meals being served at slightly the wrong time).
๏ท the probable increase in cost associated with a risk (cost variance due to risk, Rc
where Rc = P*C = P*CAR*S = P*S*CAR)
๏ท sorting on this value puts the highest risks to the budget first.
๏ท see concerns about schedule variance as this is a function of it, as illustrated in the
equation above.
Risk in a project or process can be due either to Special Cause Variation or Common
Cause Variation and requires appropriate treatment. That is to re-iterate the concern about
extremal cases not being equivalent in the list immediately above.
5.5.5. Risk management activities as applied to project management
In project management, risk management includes the following activities:
๏ท Planning how risk management will be held in the particular project. Plan should
include risk management tasks, responsibilities, activities and budget.
๏ท Assigning a risk officer - a team member other than a project manager who is
responsible for foreseeing potential project problems. Typical characteristic of risk
officer is a healthy skepticism.
๏ท Maintaining live project risk database. Each risk should have the following attributes:
opening date, title, short description, probability and importance. Optionally a risk
may have an assigned person responsible for its resolution and a date by which the
risk must be resolved.
๏ท Creating anonymous risk reporting channel. Each team member should have
possibility to report risk that he foresees in the project.
๏ท Preparing mitigation plans for risks that are chosen to be mitigated. The purpose of
the mitigation plan is to describe how this particular risk will be handled โ what,
when, by who and how will it be done to avoid it or minimize consequences if it
becomes a liability.
๏ท Summarizing planned and faced risks, effectiveness of mitigation activities and effort
spend for the risk management
5. 6. Risk management and business continuity
10. Risk management is simply a practice of systematically selecting cost effective
approaches for minimizing the effect of threat realization. All risks can never be fully
avoided or mitigated simply because of financial and practical limitations. Therefore
farmers have to accept some level of residual risks.
Whereas risk management tends to be pre-emptive, farm management planning (FMP)
was invented to deal with the consequences of realized residual risks. The necessity to
have FMP (for large scale farming organization) in place arises because even very
unlikely events will occur if given enough time. Risk management and FMP are often
mistakenly seen as rivals or overlapping practices. In fact these processes are so tightly
tied together that such separation seems artificial. For example, the risk management
process creates important inputs for the FMP (assets, impact assessments, cost estimates
etc). Risk management also proposes applicable controls for the observed risks.
Therefore, risk management covers several areas that are vital for the FMP process.
However, the FMP process goes beyond risk management's pre-emptive approach and
moves on from the assumption that the disaster will realize at some point.
Crisis Response and Assistance Monotoring
Logical framework
Impac t
The overall change to which the outcomes contributes to
achieve
Outcomes Foreseen improvem ents of the situation of the beneficiary
Outputs Products, goods, services, skills generated
Ac tivities
Actions or work needed for the project im plementation
Inputs Financial, human & material resources needed
11. 7.1. Creating SMART Objectives
Project outcome: โ60 percent of farmers in the district of Gulu, northern Uganda,
will have covered 70% of their basic food needs (maize, beans
and sesame) through own production within 1 year, through the
distribution of agricultural inputs (improved varieties, tools and
fertilizer)and improved cultivation practices under the prevailing
security situationโ.
To make sure that an objective is sufficiently detailed, use the SMART-rule:
S specific specifies exactly the result 60% of farmers in the district of
Gulu, northern Uganda
M measurable the result can be tracked will have covered 70% of their
basic food needs (maize, beans
and sesame) through own
production
A attainable should be realistic the approach chosen will enable
attaining the objective
R relevant to the intended result influencing factors have been
taken into consideration
T time-framed indicates a specific period within 1 year
12. 7.2. Monitoring and Evaluation
7.2.1. Indicators for Measurement
Objective hierarchy Indicators Means of Risk and
verification assumptions
Impact Improve the living Increased % of Impact Security remains
standards of farmers. population: assessment, the same, no
- with access to statistics from further
schools & health health post and displacement,
services; schools, EFSA school and health
- reaching food from WFP, post working
selfโsufficiency; CFSAM reports, normally
- ability to cover
cash expenditures
Outcome P1: increase food - Food availability Impact No adverse
self-sufficiency with a per household; assessment, climatic
30% higher staple - reduced EFSA from conditions, access
food production dependency on WFP, to land not
(maize and beans) food aid; Impact restricted, security
after the first - food purchased assessment, remains the same,
harvest. by households; Field farmers have the
P2: increase - shortened hunger observations, necessary inputs
production by 20% gap. Attendance list and tools for
through improved - % of farmers to training implementing the
agricultural practices using improved course learned practices,
- applying newly technologies; - Impact access to market
learned technologies. increased assessment, and demand for
P3: increase cash production; EFSA from vegetables exists
income by 10% after - reduced WFP,
one season by selling workload in the
produce from field.
vegetable cultivation. - Cash availability;
- reduced debts.
Output - Production; - Kg of maize and
- improved skills; vegetables;
- income - obtained
knowledge;
- amount of
currency.
Activities See implementation
schedule
13. 7.2.2. Implementation
Activities Hire staff Latest mid June
Procurement of inputs โ mid June
Coordinate with actors during whole June
Contract with NGOs Latest end June
Selection of beneficiaries Latest mid July
Distribution of inputs Latest end July
Post distribution evaluation Mid August
Mid-term report End August
Training sessions (three) In August, October and December
Crop performance evaluation Mid September until Mid October
Monitoring All along June until January
Impact assessment January
Reporting End of February
7.2.3. Potentialities and Constrains
Parameter Potentialities Constrains
Political
security situation improvement worsening
information access to good sources misinformation
military supporting mistrust
sovereignty of state support actions delays approvals
state supporting / facilitator not in their interest
Logistical
communication available / radio licence remote area / no access to HF
roads good whole year none or bad conditions / seasonal
storage facilities available has to be set up
Organisational
mobility of beneficiaries are settled down further displacement possible again
number of beneficiaries constant number fluctuating and / or high numbers
professional workers motivated / skilled lack experience & professionalism
local workers motivated / skilled low level education / commitment
Financial
cost are covered funded only part of all needs
banking systems available cash transfers with high risks
Impacts
economical increase production disrupts local markets
environmental avoids bigger problems deplete natural resources
humanitarian efficient interventions creates dependency
by the beneficiaries reached self-sufficiency lost
by the population synergies working jealousy towards beneficiaries
by the public supports intervention has other priorities (health for all)
by the authorities supports intervention uses for political reasons
7.3.
Evalu
ation
Metho
dology
14. 7.3.1. Stakeholder analysis
โ Brainstorming
โ Discussion with focus groups
โ Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT)
โ Drama and role plays
โ Dreams and visions
โ Impact flow diagram (or cause-effect diagram)
โ Institutional Linkage Diagram (or Venn / Chapatti diagram)
โ Problem and Objective Trees
โ Documentation review
7.3.2. Biophysical measurements
โ BMI (adults)
โ MUAC (school children)
โ UNICEF Table (children below 5)
7.3.3. Direct observations
โ Transect
โ Sketch โ Mapping and GIS Mapping
โ Photographs and Video
7.3.4. Cost Benefit Analysis
7.3.5. Semi structured interviews
7.3.6. Case studies
โ Diaries
โ Historical Trends and Timelines
โ Seasonal Calendars
โ Table of most significant changes
15. 7.3.7. Impacted Assessment Surveys
โข When are the time-periods for implementing the surveys
โข Which kind of data will be collected
โ Design of questionnaire
โข Which is the sample size (beneficiaries & control group)
โข Who will do which work
โ Data collection, data entry, data analysis, reporting
โข How to outsource the data collection
โ Selection of institution or NGO (signing of contract)
โข Which are the available skills
โ Training needed
โข Which are the costs of the whole exercise
โ Budget
โข How are those costs covered
โ Which project budget line will be charged
โข Sample unit: households / beneficiaries
โข Sample size: around 7% of total beneficiaries
โข Sampling methodologies
- Systematic sampling
- Random sampling
- Non-random sampling
- Purposive sampling (targeting selected group)
- Quota sampling (same sample size of each group)
โข Control group (non beneficiaries)
7.3.8. Survey
๏ Post distribution survey
๏ Crop performance survey
๏ Harvest crop performance
๏ Impact assessment
7.3.9. Data gathering
๏ Geographical data
๏ Household characteristics
๏ Household economy data
7.3.10. Data Analyzes
โข Data codification and conversion
โ List of codes
โ List of conversions
16. โข Data entering (Excel or Access Database)
โข Data controlling (filtering)
โข Data analysis with Excel Pivot Tables
โข Proportional pilling
โข Pair wise ranking
โข Wealth ranking
โข Well-been ranking with cards
โข Mapping (soils, cops, ethnic groups, resources)