Capturing global seismic potential from GEM’s fault, quake, and strain datasets Ross S. Stein GEM Scientific Board chair, and U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist, GEM REVEAL 2013
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This document discusses datasets from the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) that can be used to assess global seismic hazard and risk. It describes GEM's fault, earthquake catalog, and strain rate datasets which provide information on active faults, historical and instrumental earthquakes, and crustal strain rates worldwide. It highlights efforts through workshops organized by the USGS Powell Center to bring together the earthquake hazard modeling community and address weaknesses in models through collaborative projects and testing of models.
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Capturing global seismic potential from GEM’s fault, quake, and strain datasets Ross S. Stein GEM Scientific Board chair, and U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist, GEM REVEAL 2013
- 1. Capturing global seismic potential from GEM’s fault, quake, and strain datasets Ross S. Stein GEM Scientific Board chair, and U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist
- 3. Instrumental quakes Active faults Historical quakes Strain rate Ground motion prediction equations Exposure Population Buildings Vulnerability Damage data Fragility functions Decision tools Loss amplifiers Risk transfer tools Retrofit cost- benefit tools Risk rankings and indices Hazard (faulting & shaking) Exposure and Vulnerability (deaths, damage, dollars) Social Impact (mitigation actions) GEM’s GLOBAL DATASETS, a €10M investment
- 5. NewOld ISC-GEM Catalog: New magnitudes, locations, and depths for all quakes Guatemala Puerto Rico Colombia Guatemala Puerto Rico Colombia Depth (km) Storchak, Di Giacomo, Bondár, Engdahl, Villaseñor, Lee, Harris and Bormann (submitted)
- 6. ISC-GEM vs. Centennial catalogs: Northern Chile ISC-GEMCentennial Chile Pacific Ocean Chile Pacific Ocean Storchak et al (submitted) Bolivia Bolivia
- 7. How were these results achieved? Uniform relocations Pre-1918 Centennial locations events were simply adopted from reliable sourcesIn ISC-GEM, all but 1900-1903 shocks were relocated based on arrival time data 7Storchak et al (submitted)
- 8. Centennial ISC-GEM Uniform magnitudes ISC-GEM uses a unified MW magnitude scale, originating from just four sources Ms, mb, mB, Mw, UK, others Storchak et al (submitted)
- 9. ISC-GEM Catalog: The signature of plate tectonics km continental collision subduction Rifting subduction Backarc spreading
- 10. (Colored by fault type) Newly discovered active faults in Myanmar Sieh et al (in preparation) ISC-GEM Seismic Catalog (orange quakes are shallow, blue are deep) T H A I L A N D B A N G L A - D E S H M Y A N M A R A N D A M A N S H I M A L A Y A S GEM Faulted Earth Kelvin Berryman (GNS Science) Principal Investigator
- 12. A new tool for geologists to upload their faults to GEM K. Berryman, A. Chistophersen, N. Litchfield, and GEM IT staff
- 13. Seismic source interpretation and upload tool K. Berryman, A. Chistophersen, N. Litchfield, and GEM IT staff
- 14. GEM Faulted Earth: Uploaded fault traces and regions so far covered New Zealand U.S. JapanHimalayas Australia Alaska Oceanic transforms Hawaii K. Berryman, A. Chistophersen, K. Haller, Y. Awata, N. Litchfield, P. Tapponnier, and K. Sieh Europe South America Indonesia Middle East Central Asia Middle EastStill to come:
- 15. Japan Taiwan Java Tonga Aleutians New Guinea Philippines Fault depth (km) Sumatra GEM Faulted Earth 40,000 km of subduction zones SLAB 1.0 of Hayes & Wald (2010)
- 16. GEM Large Historical Earthquake Catalog AD 1000-1900 Paola Albini and Roger Musson, (in prep.)
- 17. GEM Large Historical Earthquake Catalog AD 1000-1900 Paola Albini and Roger Musson, (in prep.)
- 18. GEM Large Historical Earthquake Catalog AD 1000-1900 Paola Albini and Roger Musson, (in prep.)
- 19. Indonesia: GEM Historical Catalog has 12 times more quakes than NOAA NOAA Catalog: 6 earthquakes GEM Catalog: 75 earthquakes NOAA = National Geophysical Data Center/ World Data Service Significant Earthquake Database Java Myanmar Paola Albini and Roger Musson (in prep.)
- 20. 1900‐2009 Instrumental and historical catalogs complement each othe Istanbul
- 21. GEM Historical Catalog M≥7 during AD 1000‐1900 1900‐2009 Istanbul Instrumental and historical catalogs complement each othe
- 22. Instrumental and historical catalogs complement each other
- 23. Instrumental and historical catalogs complement each other GEM Historical Catalog M≥7 during AD 1000‐1900
- 24. White et al., 2004 Ms = 7.60 Zúñiga et al., 1997 Mw = 8.10 Nishenko & Singh, 1987 (13 MDPs) ISC‐GEM Mw = 7.69 ± 0.68 Engdahl & Villa., 2002 Mw = 7.40 Abe & Noguchi, 1983 Ms = 7.70 Calibration issues: 1903 M~7.7 Mexico-Chiapas M. Stucchi (in prep.) 500 km
- 25. Avni et al., 2002 (macroseismic) Ben-Menahem et al., 1976 ML = 6.2 ISC-GEM Mw = 6.29 ± 0.21 Location uncertainties: 1927 Jericho earthquake Max Stucchi (in prep.) Amman Jerusalem Tel Aviv
- 26. Who needs a Global Strain Rate Model? Quake rate Strain rate Wasatch fault Cas‐ cadia If all accumulating strain were released seismically, the quake rate should be proportional to strain rate 2000-2011 GPS velocities used by Kreemer et al for the GEM Strain Rate Model Gutenberg-Richter a-value from declustered ANSS catalog (Arnaud Mignan, ETH Zurich) Western United States
- 28. GEM Global Strain Rate Model reveals earthquake potential and active faults Warmer colors indicate high strain and thus high quake rates Kreemer et al (in prep.) 4,000 velocities in 2004 model, 20,000 in GEM’s Canada South America Mexico Caribbean Alaska U.S.
- 29. GEM Global Strain Rate Model reveals earthquake potential and active faults Warmer colors indicate high strain and thus high quake rates Kreemer et al (in prep.) China TaiwanIndia Java Japan Sumatra Iran Philippines Tibet Indian Ocean New Guinea East African rift 4,000 velocities in 2004 model, 20,000 in GEM’s
- 30. GEM Strain Rate Model and ISC-GEM Catalog across Eurasia Strain rate (nanostrain/yr) Strain rate and large 20th century earthquakes are correlated M≥6 earthquakes GEORGIA IRAN TUNISIA TIBET CRETE KYRGYZSTAN INDIA ITALY PAKISTAN JORDA N ALGERIA SERBIA TURKEY But strain exceeds seismicity in Himalayas, Tehran, Baku, North Anatolian fault, Greece ISAREL
- 31. Iran: GEM Strain Rate Model and ISC-GEM Catalog Strain rate (nanostrain/yr) I R A N Tehran Dubai Tabriz Baku C A S P I A N A Z E R B A I J A N M≥6 earthquakes 1.5 million 2.1 million 12.0 million 1.5 million Population Kreemer (in prep.) Shiraz
- 32. Tehran
- 37. 2011 Landscan Population density 1900-2009 ISC-GEM Earthquake Catalog Santiago
- 38. Global Strain Rate Model helps regional modelers hunt for local faults
- 39. Global Strain Rate Model helps regional modelers hunt for local faults
- 40. SHARE Model Faults Global Strain Rate Model helps regional modelers hunt for local faults
- 41. Because inadequate fault data is perhaps the greatest weakness of hazard models
- 42. Because inadequate fault data is perhaps the greatest weakness of hazard models
- 43. GEM’s response to seismic hazard debate Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, and Robert J. Geller Mark W. Stirling Seth Stein, Robert Geller, and Mian Liu September/October 2012 2012
- 44. John Adams Canada Natl Haz Model John Adams Canada Natl Haz Model Mark Stirling NZ Natl Haz (Powell co‐PI) Oliver Boyd Central US Haz Model Marco Pagani GEM Marco Pagani GEM Seth Stein, PSHA critic Alex Allmann Munich Re Laura Peruzza European Models Laura Peruzza European Models Bring warring parties together on a mountain top for 3 days to develop new strategies, and to agree on tests of seismic hazard assessment Mark Leonard, Australia Natl Haz Model Ray Durrheim So. Africa Model Anke Friederich European geology Anke Friederich European geology USGS Powell Center Workshops: Harnessing the community
- 45. Ned Field Calif Haz Model Mark Petersen US Nat’l Haz Model David Jackson PSHA critic Graeme Weatherill, GEM Danijel Schorlemmer GEM Testing and Evaluation Facility Martin Käser Munich Re Martin Käser Munich Re Mark Stirling NZ Natl Haz (Powell co‐PI) Mark Stirling NZ Natl Haz (Powell co‐PI) Morgan Page Calif Haz Model Gavin Hayes Subduction zones USGS Powell Center Workshops: Harnessing the community
- 46. • Build a testable global earthquake activity rate model using smoothed seismicity and GEM strain rate • Abandon assignments of ‘maximum earthquake magnitude’ for a scientifically defensible alternative • Test post‐1996 ground motions against the 1996 US Natl Seismic Hazard model Powell Center Groups: Essential projects
- 47. More quakes Less quakes Forecast quake rate (log scale) Bird, Jackson, Kagan, Kreemer and Weatherill (in prep.) GEM Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) retrospective forecast for post-2005 M≥5.75 quakes Best forecast is from 37.5% GEM Strain Rate Model and 62.5% pre-2005 seismic catalog
- 48. Forecast quake rate (log scale) More quakes Less quakes GEM Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) retrospective forecast for post-2005 M≥5.75 quakes Best forecast is from 37.5% GEM Strain Rate Model and 62.5% pre-2005 seismic catalogBird, Jackson, Kagan, Kreemer and Weatherill (in prep.)
- 50. Some of the GEM team
- 52. Standard deviation of the Strain Rate Kreemer, in prep.
- 53. Signal-to-noise ratio of the strain rate Kreemer, in prep.
- 54. Dilatation (red) and contraction (blue) rates Kreemer, in prep.
- 60. Earthquake potential at millennial, century, and decade scales Number of studies Paola Albini (INGV Milan) and Roger Musson (British Geological Survey), Principal Investigators GEM Large Historical Earthquake Catalog: 832 M≥7 quakes during AD 1000-1900
- 61. Magnitude Paola Albini (INGV Milan) and Roger Musson (British Geological Survey), Principal Investigators GEM Large Historical Earthquake Catalog: 832 M≥7 quakes during AD 1000-1900 Earthquake potential from millennial, century, and decade record
- 65. GEM Earthquake Activity Rate Model Bird, Jackson, Kagan, Kreemer & Weatherill (in prep.) Stephen Young, Endurance Re: “Data Quality was identified as a serious issue in 2011. The Tohoku event had not been fully considered in the event set, leaving decided gaps in knowledge.” From the Font Line, Bermuda Reinsurance (2012) Stephen Young, Endurance Re: “Data Quality was identified as a serious issue in 2011. The Tohoku event had not been fully considered in the event set, leaving decided gaps in knowledge.” From the Font Line, Bermuda Reinsurance (2012)
- 66. Winning blend: 62.5% catalog / 37.5% strain Mixing parameter, aPure strain rate Pure seismic catalog Thus far, the best predictors of future quakes are past quakes and strain rate Information score (binary bits per quake) GEM Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) experiments find ‘seismic gap theory’ (next quakes in areas of high strain and fewest past quakes) fails Bird, Jackson, Kagan, Kreemer & Weatherill (in prep.)
- 67. Internal outline ‣ Themes ‣ Difficulty of inferring future quakes from past quakes ‣ Potential to prioritize global seismic threat if data and methods are uniform ‣ Potential of testable PSHA if it is global and as uniform as possible ‣ Data ‣ GEM Faulted Earth ‣ GEM Historical earthquake catalog ‣ ISC‐GEM Instrumental quake catalog ‣ GEM Strain Rate Model ‣ Powell process: Collaborative, open, problem‐solving ‣ GEAR ‣ Landing ‣ In the earth sciences, data trumps all, and so… ‣ The GC datasets are a gift to science, commerce, and humanity