Downloaded 357 times
Uploaded bysajidinam
Disaster risk management
Disaster risk management involves identifying risks, analyzing their probability and potential consequences, and determining how to reduce risks. Risk is defined as the probability of harm from hazards like floods, earthquakes or fires. Managing risk requires understanding hazards, vulnerable community elements, capacity to build resilience, and developing preparedness, mitigation and recovery plans. Prioritizing risks by probability and consequence allows targeting resources at highest risks first.
Disaster risk management
- 2.
- 3.
- 4. The probability thata community’s structure or geographic area is to be damaged or disrupted by the impact of a particular hazard/disaster. RISKRISK
- 5. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar RISK Probability or likelihood of something happening in the future which has a negative consequence Risk= Probability (P) x Loss (L) RISKS are the anticipated consequences (e.g. losses or damage) that can be predicted to result from a particular hazard affecting a particular place at a particular time Disaster Risk Disaster Risk is the likelihood of harmful consequences or losses (death, injuries, destroyed property, disrupted economic activities or damaged environment) resulting from interaction between a hazard and vulnerable conditions. Disaster Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability Capacity
- 6. Hazard The Concept ofRisk Risk Vulnerability
- 7. Hazard Vulnerabilityx DisasterRisk Capacity =
- 8. Understanding of DisasterRisk Management Disaster Risk Management is the most complex, interrelated and multi-connected discipline. It is the human intervention behavior which creates negative and positive conditions for natural ecological system. All the negative conditions increase in the human vulnerabilities/ risk and the positive condition increase the capacities/ opportunities for the ecological system.
- 9. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Disaster Risk Management DRM is about identifying & analysing risks, & deciding what to do about them. DRM is a problem-solving & decision-making process, which will assist us in selecting the most effective actions.
- 10. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Risk Management ... RISK MANAGEMENT is a comprehensive strategy for reducing threats and consequences to public health and safety by: preventing exposure to hazards (target = hazards) reducing vulnerabilities (target group = community) Developing capacities (target group = response agencies)
- 11. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Risk Management
- 12. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Child at home alone
- 13. Why DRM? Theworld is facing a large scale of disasters. Nearly 25% of the world’s landmass and most of its population is at risk. Disasters’ impacts are exacerbated by a series of dynamic processes, including population growth, increasing levels of vulnerability, poor planning, climate change etc.
- 14. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar One view of risk fatalities injuries disease (mental and physical) secondary hazards (fire, disease etc.) contamination of the environment displacement breakdown in security damage to infrastructure breakdown in essential services loss of property loss of income
- 15. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Another view What are our problems? Which ones need attention? What do we want to do about them? How and when do we intend to do this? And once we have started to take action… How are we doing? Are we getting the results we want?
- 16. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar A risk management process is to: Identify risks Analyse and prioritise risks Identify risk management strategies Implement strategies Monitor, evaluate and adjust as necessary
- 17. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Diagrammatic Overview of the Process
- 18. Establish the general contextof management Risk identification risks statements Risk analysis Levels of risk Risk evaluation Prioritisation of risk Risk treatment Identify source of risks: hazards Identify elements at risk: community + environment Describe & analyze Describe & analyze Determine probability and likelihood Determine consequences Develop risk evaluation criteria Prevention- mitigation Preparedness -Response - Recovery Avoid, accept, mitigate, reduce, transfer, modify risk Options identification Options evaluation Options selection Plan & implement options Communicate Consult Monitor & Review Capacity Development 1 2 3 4 5 Process Overview
- 19. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Identifying risks • A risk consists of two components: • an element at risk • a source of risk • Elements at risk are things your community values which could be exposed to harm • Sources of risks are the hazards that may cause harm
- 20. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Elements at risk •people •buildings •infrastructure •equipment •environment •organisations •culture and heritage •livelihoods •crops and farmland •services
- 21. Activity What are Elementsat Risk in case of: 1.Floods 2.Earthquakes 3.Landsliding 4.Drought
- 22. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Risk Matrix Sources of risk Elements structural building land- earth- storm flood at risk fire collapse slide quake people crops buildings equipment
- 23. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Some examples There is a risk that: Buildings could collapse in an earthquake Crops could be destroyed in a flood Water supplies could be contaminated in a flood Public confidence could be reduced in an epidemic
- 24. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Prioritising risks A way to prioritise risks is by relative probability & consequence of each risk - Probability is the likelihood that something may happen in the future. - Consequence is the degree of harm that a risk may cause. This allows you to determine which risks require immediate action
- 25. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar An example of describing probability Category certain likely possible unlikely Description known to occur often – 2 times a year may/has occurred – every 1-2 years could possibly occur – once every 5-10 years unexpected to occur – perhaps once every 100 years
- 26. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar An example of describing consequence Category minor moderate major disastrous catastrophic no deaths or injuries, some equipment or facility damage some injuries, significant facility damage, some loss of crops serious injuries, some facilities destroyed, significant loss of crops many injuries, some fatalities, key facilities destroyed, serious loss of livelihoods large numbers of injured, many fatalities, many key facilities destroyed, devastating loss of livelihoods Description
- 27. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar An example of describing risk levels consequence probability minor moderate major disastrous catastrophic certain medium high high very high very high likely medium medium high high very high possible low low medium high high unlikely very low low medium high high
- 28. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar By using probability & consequence, it is possible to compare & prioritise very different risks After prioritising the risks, you can then prioritise actions to manage the risks You can also justify the decisions taken
- 29. Centre for DisasterPreparedness and Management, University of Peshawar Managing risks • Some options for managing risks include: • reducing probability • reducing potential consequence • removing the source of risk • removing the element at risk • Developing preparedness plans • Preparing recovery plans
Editor's Notes
- #17 For example, when deciding how risks can be controlled, you may discover further risks. These risks should be noted & dealt with as well.
- #19 The CBDRM (community based risk management) conceptual framework is composed of a series of technically different programs (but related) Development programs, which target mainly the vulnerabilities of the people and the systems Prevention and mitigation programs, which target the specific characteristics of hazards Vulnerability reduction programs Emergency preparedness activities, which target agencies and their readiness The ultimate goal of CBDRM is to protect public safety and to promote safer communities through identification of threats to public safety, through the reduction of risks from the threats and vulnerabilities, and through the empowerment of the communities to respond to and recover from emergencies. Public health is a key element (including hospitals, EMS, etc.) Brief comment of the slide It is impossible to develop response plans unless we know why and what for we plan (this implies to know the risks, vulnerabilities, existing laws, context, etc.) Response plans are just one element of Risk Management The step 6 is important: importance of communicating and consulting throughout the process Step 7 tells us that it is an ongoing process and that the cycle has to be entered again and again Step 8 tells us that the final output is safer communities and increased sustainable development (capacity development)
- #23 One way of recording which elements at risk may be affected by which sources of risk is to create a matrix such as this one. The matrix could also be useful for carrying out site assessments. This matrix is an example only & will need extension for different sites & activities.