Lecture 6: Vulnerability Analysis Dr. Dyah R. Hizbaron (UGM) 2019 ProSPER.Net Young Researchers' School 5 March 2019

1. VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
Dr. Dyah Rahmawati Hizbaron, S.Si, M.T, M.Sc
Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada
Mailto: dyah.hizbaron@ugm.ac.id
Scopus ID: 36450403500

2. OUTLINE
• Basic Concept on Vulnerability & Element at Risk
• Idea of Ecosystem Based Disaster Risk Reduction in Indonesia
• Case Study 1. Kotagede – A physical vulnerability
• Case Study 2. Sidoarjo – A social vulnerability
• Case Study 3. Sulawesi – An economic vulnerability
• Case Study 4. Gunungkidul – An environmental vulnerability

3. Learning Outcome
• Understand basic concept of vulnerability and element at risk
• Develop critical thinking about different types of vulnerability
indicators and the scales at which they were developed;
• Develop critical thinking about different types of vulnerability

4. Human intervention to environment has been ages, the level of impact is varied, local
to global
Human occupied land, whereas, some of them are prone areas towards natural disaster
1700 1800 1900
2000
20501600
Hunter
Gatherer
Society
Pre-Industrial
Society
Industrial
Society
Modern
Society?
BASIC CONCEPT OF VULNERABILTY & ELEMENT AT RISK

5. 1700 1800 1900
2000
20501600
VULNERABILITY
HG Society
+
Natural Law
=
Vulnerable
Society
PI Society
+
Spatial
Inequality
=
Vulnerable
Society
Id Society
+
Environmental
Impact
=
Vulnerable
Society
Md Society
+
Global Impact
=
Vulnerable
Society
Vulnerability keynote: inability, adapt, cope, resilient, shock, stress

6. Risk Formula:
• R = HxV
• R = (HxV)/C
• R = [e, s, f, c]
• H is latent, content
wise exist, place as
Coeficient
• R is high if V is high
• V is high if element
at risk is high
• V is high but at the
same time have C
• V and C are two
sided coin

7. What is Vulnerability?
• The degree of loss to a given element at risk or set of elements at risk
resulting form the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given
magnitude and expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total
damage) (UNDRO, 1991).
• Indication of people’s exposure to external risks, shocks and stresses
and their ability to cope with, and recover from the resulting impacts
(DFID, 2004; ISDR, 2004)

8. Vulnerability is a concept which describes factors or constraints of an
economic, social, physical or geographic nature, which reduce the ability to
prepare for and cope with the impact of hazards.
VULNERABLE
AREA
There is a
potential for
an event to
occur
VulnerableSocial Condition
Economic
Condition
Physical
Condition
Political
Condition
Unprecedented
Condition

9. Formulation of Vulnerability
PHYSICAL
SOCIAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENT
Vulnerability = Exposure + Resistance + Resilience

10. WHAT IS ECO-DRR?
ECOSYSTEM BASED DISASTER RISK REDUCTION OR ECO-DRR
The Sendai Framework 2015
The Sustainable Development Goals 2015
COP 21 Paris CC Agreement
The Lisbon Treaty
human-capital
management
within
emergency
situation
natural-capital
management
within whole
disaster
management cycle
REACTIVE PROACTIVE
Shifting Paradigm
TECHNICAL
ENGINEERING
TECHNICAL & SOCIAL
ENGINEERING
A MULTILATERAL INITIATIVES

11. Case Study 1. Kotagede – Earthquake 2006

12. Seismic activity originated from <500km from city centres
Surface lithology in Bantul area (Quartenary sediment) had
increase susceptibility of the area towards any ground shaking
(Setijadji, et al., 2008).
Bantul District has potentially high velocity plate
movement up to 60 mm/year (Marso et al, 2008).
Seismic Hazard Overview

13. Introduction
• Research Rationale
• Why selects Kotagede?
• Trending disaster occurrences
• Local vulnerability is high
• Element at risks varied
• Existing countermeasures are minimum
• High tourism potentials
No Age
Sayanga
n
Bodon Total
1 0 - 14 403 440 843
2 15 - 24 352 232 584
3 25 - 49 698 553 1.251
4 > 50 479 315 794
Total 1.932 1.540 3.472
• Disaster experience: 5.760 death toll, 102.234 injured people, 2.020.788 refugees,
302.868 unit houses destructed (non habitable), 252.909 unit houses destructed
(habitable) from 2006 earthquake
• The research area is an accumulation well built assets, predominantly settlement with
very specific characteristics
• Rumah Joglo
• Rumah Kalang
• Museum
• Art Workshop
• Narrow street
• The research area is a border area among two administrative unit, which entitle for intra-
regional coordination

14. The research area is an
accumulation of element at risk
>>> medium to high physical
vulnerability indices (Hizbaron,
2012)
Physical Vulnerability
1. Market
2. Mosque
3. Tiga Ringin
4. Omah UGM
Tourism Graph Decreased!

15. Vulnerable Groups?
Vulnerable Groups
>> Children
>> Elderly
>> Productive ages
Element at risk (1)
Urban dwellers
Tourists
Different vulnerability indices per target groups
-Those living in dense settlement
-Those visiting as tourist

16. Who are Vulnerable?
Those who are living/inhabited prone hazard area
Those who have less capacity to withstand any disturbance (stress/shock)
Those who personally handicapped, discriminated or less access to normal treatment

17. Economic Vulnerability?
Marginal Economy
>> Trade
>> Service
>> Tourism
>> Industry
>> Etc
Element at risk
Small enterprises
Medium
enterprises
Large enterprises

18. Physical Vulnerability?
Fragile structure :
>> Wooden house
>> Brick house
>> Traditional house
>> Tiled roof house
Element at risk
Traditional house
Cultural objects
Cultural sites
Heavy tiled roof subject to earthquake
Brick cement wall subject
to earthquake
Wooden house
subject to fire

19. INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE
(brick – wooden house)
Rumah Kalang. Small Alleys – Narrow Street
Different length of each alleys have different vulnerability indices

20. Cultural Heritage Object. Small Alleys – Narrow Street
Urban Heritage At Risk?
Traditional
structure
has
different
fragility
indices
with
modern
structure
More than 2 m high
wall with strong
structure

21. Built up area are vulnerable?
Rumah Joglo. Small Alleys – Narrow Street
Different height wall
along narrow street have
different likelihood to
vulnerability indices

22. Types of Vulnerability (1)
• Physical Vulnerability
• Potential for physical impact on built environment or infrastructure and
population
• Analyzed per group of construction or structural types
• Intrinsic quality of a structure and does not depend on location
• Social Vulnerability
• Potential impacts of events on groups such as the poor, women, children,
elderly etc
• Analyzed per population cluster

23. Types of Vulnerability (2)
• Economic Vulnerability
• Potential impacts of hazards on economic assets and processes (i.e. business
interruption, secondary effects such as increased poverty and job loss)
• Analyzed per sector or per assets types
• Environmental Vulnerability
• Potential impacts of events on the environment
• E.g. hydrologic condition after eruption

24. Environmental creates Vulnerability?

25. EcoDRR Praxis: Need to Understand your Environment
Meeting Points (1)
•Identification of meeting points shall be conducted by the community.
•However, RS/GIS technique also make it possible to provide such information using high resolution image.
•The indicated meeting points will be kept to avoid ambiguous result from community mapping.

26. Strong Points for Kotagede
Meeting Points (2)

27. Research Finding
Second Round FGD
• They are able to identify vulnerable elements

28. Second Round FGD
• They are able to identify evacuation routes, meeting points and fire
extinguishers
Research Finding

29. Research Output
Signs:

30. 1m IKONOS – 17 September 2006 @DigitalGlobe 1m IKONOS – 11 May 2007 @DigitalGlobe
CASE STUDY 2. SIDOARJO – HOW TO COLLECT DATA SPATIAL
TEMPORAL FOR VULNERABILITY

31. 1m IKONOS – 05 Januari 2008 @DigitalGlobe
1m IKONOS – 14 Februari 2009 @DigitalGlobe

32. 0,5 m GeoEye-1 perekaman 31 Mei 2010 @Digitallobe
0,5 m GeoEye-1 perekaman 30 Nov 2012 @DigitaGlobe

33. 0.5 m WorldView-2 @DigitalGlobe
0.5 m WorldView-2 @DigitalGlobe
OBSERVE POST ERUPTION GA. SINABUNG
Building Footprint

34. Medium resolution using unsupervised hybrid-based built-up
extraction
Medium resolution using change detection
process of built-up areas

35. http://www.un-spider.org/node/11443

36. http://geoportal.puspics.ugm.ac.id/documents/74

37. http://ecodrr.ugm.ac.id

38. • Head of National Agency of Disaster
Management Regulation No. 2/2012
on Risk Analysis
• Head of National Agency of Disaster
Management Regulation No. 3/2012
on Capacity Analysis
• 34 provinces, 416 districts
(kabupaten), and 98 municipalities
(kotamadya).
Hazard
Losses
Capacity
Hazard Index
(Magnitude &
intensity)
Exposure Index
(Population, Socio-
Culture Component)
Losses Index
(Economic, Physical
& Env. Component)
Capacity Index
(Government, Early
Warning, Mitigation
Preparedness)
Hazard Map
Vulnerability
Map
Capacity Map
RiskMap
How to conduct Vulnerability Analysis?
Case Study 3. Sulawesi – An economic Vulnerability

39. Research Result
Kota Manado
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Disaster Statistics Kota Manado
Flood Landslide Typhoon Earthquake

40. Population, Element at Risk and Risk Distribution of Kota Manado
Research Result

41. Legend
Administrative Borders
District Borders
Sub-district Borders
Administrative Capital
Province CapitalProvince Capital
District Capital
Sub-district Capital
Topography
High Point
Shoreline
River
Periodic River
Spatial Structure
City Structure System
National Center Activity
City Center
Sub-city Center
Environmental Center
Power Plant Network Structure
Electrical Station Control
Stem Power Plant
Solar Power Plant
Electrical Stem Network
Electrical Solar Network
Water Resource Network Structure
Potential of Groundwater Basin
Very High
High
Middle
Small
None
Transportation Network Structure
Last Processing Waste
Network Waste Structure
Communication Network Structure
Communication Tower
International Airport
Local Jet
Special Terminal or port
Terminal Type A
Relocation Terminal B
Container terminal
New terminal
Railway Station
Railway Track Plan
Circulation of Island Tourism
Main Road Network
Primer Road Network
Collective Road Network
Local Road Network
Highway Network Plan
Ringroad Network Plan
Two Track Network Plan
Bridges Plan
Bridges Plan
Tsunami Evacuation Plan
Risk and Spatial Plan of Kota Manado
Accumulated spatial
structure are at risk
area
Research Result

42. Kota Makassar
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Disaster Statistics Kota Makassar
Flood Landslide Typhoon Earthquake
Research Result

43. Research Result
Population, Element at Risk and Risk Distribution of Kota Makassar

44. Center of Activity
Airport
City Center
Sub-city Center
Environment Center
Type A
Type B
Port
International Port
Regional Port
Local Port
Fishery Port
Planning Port
Subdistrict Borders
District Borders
Shoreline
Water Processing Instalation
Drinking Water Processing
Electrical Network
Electrical Station Control
Electrical Power Plant
Water gate
Telephone controller
Cable storage
Telephone cable
Highway
Main Road
Local Road
Collector Road
Planning Road
Main Road Planning
Local Road Planning
Collector Road Planning
Monorail Railway Plan
Monorail Station
Train Railway Plan
Pipeline Water Network
(Diameters)
Main Drainage
Lake or Water
Water Transportation
NetworkCorridor
River or Canal
Port Type
Legend
Research Result
Risk and Spatial Plan of Kota Makassar
Accumulated spatial
structure are at risk
area

45. Research Result
Kota Gorontalo
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Disaster Statistics Kota Gorontalo
Flood Landslide Typhoon Drought

46. Research Result
Population, Element at Risk and Risk Distribution of Kota Gorontalo

47. Spatial
Pattern
Planning
• Create Polder system for flood management in Bone Bolango
River Area
• Organizing and developing Oldtown Trade Service area
• Organizing Taruna Remaja Park
• Preserve Historical and Cultural Area
Rice field
People ForrestLocal road
River
Education
Green belt and river border
Park and open green space
Goverment Office
Cultural area
Settlement
Terminal Branch
Main Terminal
Public Grave
Fishery Industry
Store Building and industry
Shelter Forrest
HealthFacilities
Trade and services (super block)
Trade and services
Tourism Area
Catchment area
Central Market
Central Market
CBD
Fishery port
Harbour
Pool
Research Result
Risk and Spatial Plan of Kota
Gorontalo
Accumulated
spatial structure
are at moderate
risk area

48. Research Result
Risk Ranking and Spatial Plan at National Level

49. Damage Assessment Data NOT
VULNERABILITY DATA
INPUT FOR VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
TO IDENTIFY ELEMENT AT RISK DISTRIBUTION!

50. High resolution of building footprints extracted in
a high density area
High resolution of building density computed
using radius

51. Case Study 4. Gunungkidul - Drought
Geomorphology: Karst area, alluvial material in some areas.
Dry, rare to surface water soure.
WIDORO
13%
KLAMPOK
15%
GUMBENG
7%
SUMUR
13%GUBAR
11%
KARANGN
ONGKO
7%
TEMON
8%
TLOGOWA
RAK
10%
KACANGAN
10% JLUMBANG
6%
x : 431006; y ; 9107964 (8º
4’ 10,3” BT & 110º 22’
25,8”); z = 97 mdpl

52. Geography,
Geomorphology,
Hidrology
Social – Economic
Adjustment
Institutional
Empowerment
KARST
INDIVIDUAL
HOUSEHOLD
COLLECTIVE
Water
issue
Drought
Local
Adaptation
• Karst Configuration  soluble rock  water surface
absorbed  get into “luweng”  minimum water quantity
• Sub surface river  high spring availability 
Environmentally vulnerable
• Agriculture yet supported
• Sumur penampungan air hujan (PAH)
• Pemanfaatan embung
• Penyaluran air dari mataair
• Pembelian sumberdaya air
Research Problem

53. Piping system accomodate:
1800 liter/day (5hrs/24hrs)
Highest point at Temon
distributed by 8 public
hydrant at 8 RT.
Vulnerable towards Water Quantity
Spring Mapping: Pego, Bekah,
dan Tangis.

54. EcoDRR Praxis

55. Community Involvement: Water Filtration Information
Dokumentasi: Tim KKN – PPM 2014)

56. Community Training (Pamswakarsa)

57. Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction
Dokumentasi: Tim KKN – PPM 2014)

58. Community Assistance
Dokumentasi: Tim KKN – PPM 2014)

59. Thank You