Ceat reported its results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011. While the company's net sales grew 15.4% year-over-year to Rs. 778 crore, its operating profit declined 61% to Rs. 41 crore due to a sharp rise in raw material prices. The operating margin was 5.3% compared to 15.4% in the prior year quarter. Net profit fell 77% to Rs. 13.9 crore. However, results were marginally better than expected. The analyst maintains a 'Buy' rating on Ceat based on strong demand fundamentals in the tyre industry and expectations that margins will recover as the business model shifts towards more capital-intensive radial tyres.

1. 1QFY2011Result Update | Tyre
July 30, 2010
CEAT BUY
CMP Rs134
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs164
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg (yoy) Angel Est. % Diff Investment Period 12 Months
Net Sales 778 674 15.4 814 (4.5)
Operating Profit 41 104 (61) 32 28.0 Stock Info
OPM (%) 5.3 15.4 (1,013)bp 3.9 134bp Sector Tyre
Reported PAT 14 60 (77) 11 26.1 Market Cap (Rs cr) 461
Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 0.8
52 Week High / Low 191/114
Ceat’s top-line has been recovering following the uptick in OE volumes. However,
Avg. Daily Volume 113,705
during 1QFY2011, capacity constraints restricted sequential (qoq) top-line
Face Value (Rs) 2
growth. EBITDA margins came in higher than our expectations at 5.3%. Margins
declined by 1,013bp yoy due to the sharp increase in rubber prices. Net profit fell BSE Sensex 17,868
following the steep decline in margins. Nonetheless, on account of the better- Nifty 5,368
than-expected 1QFY2011 performance, we maintain our estimates and keep a Reuters Code CEAT.BO
Buy on the stock. Bloomberg Code CEAT@IN
Top-line up 15.4%; OPM at 5.3%, marginally above expectation: Ceat clocked
turnover of Rs778cr (Rs674cr) for 1QFY2011, an increase of 15.4% yoy. Top-line
Shareholding Pattern (%)
growth was aided by the ~49.8% yoy growth in OEs and ~22.6% yoy growth in
Promoters 48.5
replacement sales. The company clocked operating profit of Rs41cr (Rs104cr) for
1QFY2011. Operating profit dipped on yoy and qoq basis primarily due to spurt MF / Banks / Indian Fls 22.4
in rubber prices leading to substantial 1,477bp yoy increase in raw material cost FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.1
at 68.9% (54.1%) of sales in 1QFY2011. Ceat reported net profit of Rs13.9cr Indian Public / Others 25.0
(Rs60.2cr) for the quarter, which was better than our expectation of Rs11cr.
Outlook and Valuation: We believe that strong demand, prevailing high capacity Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
utilisation levels and higher investment requirements would help the Indian tyre Sensex 1.8 16.1 17.1
industry to arrest the sharp decline in margins despite the upward move in input
CEAT (10.8) 13.4 (23.9)
costs (rubber and carbon black). Thus, we maintain a Buy on Ceat, with a Target
Price of Rs164, at which level the stock would trade at 4.0x, 4.0x and 0.7x
FY2012E EPS, EV/EBITDA and P/BV, respectively.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 2,518 2,805 3,297 3,754
% chg 8.2 11.4 17.5 13.9
Net Profit (16.1) 161.0 86.0 140.5
% chg - - (46.6) 63.3
EBITDA (%) 0.9 10.6 6.5 7.9
EPS (Rs) (4.7) 47.0 25.1 41.0
P/E (x) - 2.9 5.3 3.3
Vaishali Jajoo
P/BV (x) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 022-4040 3800 Ext: 344
RoE (%) (3.3) 25.7 12.3 17.2 vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
RoCE (%) (0.2) 20.7 11.8 15.8
EV/Sales (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Yaresh Kothari
022-4040 3800 Ext: 313
EV/EBITDA (x) 36.7 3.1 5.1 3.7 yareshb.kothari@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

2. CEAT |1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg FY10 FY09 % chg
Net Sales (incl. Oth. Op. Income) 777.5 674.0 15.4 2,831 2,539 11.5
Consumption of RM 535.4 364.5 46.9 1,706 1,684 1.3
(% of Sales) 68.9 54.1 60.3 66.3
Staff Costs 49.2 41.5 18.4 192.7 160.7 19.9
(% of Sales) 6.3 6.2 6.8 6.3
Purchases of TG 26.2 26.8 (2.0) 163.1 102.7 58.8
(% of Sales) 3.4 4.0 5.8 4.0
Other Expenses 125.8 137.4 (8.4) 465.4 573.0 (18.8)
(% of Sales) 16.2 20.4 16.4 22.6
Total Expenditure 736.6 570.2 29.2 2,527 2,521 0.3
Operating Profit 41.0 103.8 (60.5) 303.7 18.7 1,528.0
OPM (%) 5.3 15.4 10.7 0.7
Interest 12.0 12.1 (0.9) 39.7 60.1 (33.9)
Depreciation 8.1 6.3 27.7 26.9 25.6 4.9
Other Income 0.1 6.1 (98.4) 1.9 29.9 (93.6)
PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 21.0 91.5 (77.0) 239.0 (37.2) -
Extr. Income/(Expense) - - - - - -
PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 21.0 91.5 (77.0) 239.0 (37.2) -
(% of Sales) 2.7 13.6 8.4 -
Provision for Taxation 7.1 31.3 (77.2) 78.0 (21.1) -
(% of PBT) 34.0 34.2 32.6 56.6
Reported PAT 13.9 60.2 (77.0) 161.0 (16.1) -
PATM (%) 1.8 8.9 5.7 -
Equity capital (cr) 34.2 34.2 - 136.0 34.2 297.2
EPS (Rs) 4.1 17.6 (77.0) 11.8 (4.7) -
Source: Company, Angel Research
Top-line up 15.4%: Ceat clocked turnover of Rs778cr (Rs674cr) for 1QFY2011, up
15.4% yoy aided by the 49.8% yoy growth in OEs and about 22.6% yoy growth in
replacement sales. The domestic market, following recovery in the industrial cycle,
registered 25.3% yoy growth in 1QFY2011. Exports recorded 6.1% yoy growth
post weak performance during FY2010.
July 30, 2010 2

3. CEAT |1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 2: Net sales up 15.4% yoy Exhibit 3: Revenue contribution trend
(Rs cr) Net Sales (LHS) Net Sales Growth (RHS) (%) (%) Replacement OE Exports
1,000 50 100
13.5 16.8 16.3 16.1 11.7
27.5 8.7 10.6
15.4 10.4 10.2 12.1
750 75
7.3
500 0 50
3.2
(1.9) 77.8 77.7
72.8 73.5 71.8
250 25
0 (50) 0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM at 5.3% marginally above expectation: Ceat clocked operating profit of
Rs41cr (Rs104cr) for 1QFY2011, a decline on both yoy and qoq basis primarily
due to the spurt in rubber prices, which resulted in a substantial 1,477bp yoy
increase in raw material cost at 68.9% (54.1%) of sales in 1QFY2011. OPM for the
quarter stood at 5.3% (15.4%), which was better than our expectation of 4%.
Exhibit 4: Natural rubber prices on an up move... Exhibit 5: ... led to contraction in EBITDA margins
(Rs/kg) Average quarterly rubber prices (%) EBITDA Margin Raw Material Cost/Sales (ex. Oth. Op. Income)
200
165 100
135 141
150 120 72.7 72.7
118 67.5
102 75
98 58.1 58.8
100 78 72
50
50
25 15.4 14.2
0
5.9 4.0 5.3
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit dips 77%: Ceat reported net profit of Rs13.9cr (Rs60.2cr) for the quarter,
which was better than our expectation of Rs11cr. Higher input costs and increased
depreciation impacted bottom-line, which fell 77% yoy and 9.5% qoq.
July 30, 2010 3

4. CEAT |1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 6: Volume trend Exhibit 7: Net profits up 77% yoy, beats estimates
(lakh units) Truck + LCV tyres OTR/Grader PCR/UV Radial (Rs cr) Net Profit (LHS) Net Profit Margin (RHS) (%)
10 75 12
8.9
8
1.2 1.2 1.2 9
1.2 1.1 8.5
50
6
6
4
6.5 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.5 25 3.2
2.0 1.8 3
2
0 0 0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Key developments
Last year, Ceat commenced construction work at its new radial tyre plant at
Halol, near Baroda in Gujarat, at an investment of Rs500cr. The plant will
manufacture radial tyres for trucks, buses and passenger cars, and a
substantial portion of the production would be exported. Ceat expects to start
commercial production by October 2010.
The company has approved allotment of 17,12,176 convertible warrants on a
preferential basis and at a price to be determined as per the SEBI guidelines.
These warrants would be converted into 17,12,176 equity shares of face value
Rs10/- each at a premium, working out to 5% of the existing paid equity share
capital.
July 30, 2010 4

5. CEAT |1QFY2011 Result Update
Investment Arguments
Tyre industry - Set for structural shift: Currently, manufacturing radial tyres is
far more capital intensive than cross-plys. Investment per tonnes per day (tpd)
is 3.2x of cross-ply at Rs6.1cr/tpd. On the other hand, the selling price of
radial tyres is around 20% higher than the cross-ply tyres. Taking into account
the difference in capital requirements and consequent impact on asset
turnover, interest cost and depreciation, to generate similar RoCE and RoE, the
tyre companies would need to earn EBITDA margins of around 21% compared
to around 9% being earned on cross-ply tyres. Thus, higher capital
requirements will help protect margins from upward bound input costs, as the
business model evolves bearing in mind final RoEs rather than margins. With
the sector set for a structural shift and apparent pricing flexibility, it will result
in an improvement in RoCE and RoE of the tyre manufacturers going forward.
Volume growth strong: Ceat's volume growth has recovered across segments
like the T&B, passenger vehicles and OTR. Further, the company’s product mix
is skewed towards the commercial vehicle (CV) segment (T&B tyres account for
almost 61% of the total tonnage, while the light commercial vehicles (LCVs)
and passenger vehicle (PVs) segments account for 22% and 15%, respectively),
which is set for strong recovery going forward.
Increasing focus on exports, capacity addition to fuel growth: Ceat has been
increasingly focusing on exports especially the high-margin specialty tyres, in a
bid to offset volatility in its domestic tyre business in the long run.
Outlook and Valuation
The tyre industry, during FY2010, benefited largely from the substantial decline in
raw material prices and spike in replacement demand. Going ahead, we are
positive on the sector as the OEM off-take is expected to improve on better overall
auto industry volume growth. The recent run up in raw material prices is however,
a concern and expected to exert pressure on OPMs. Nonetheless, on account of
the better-than-expected 1QFY2011 performance, we maintain our estimates. We
estimate the company to clock EPS of Rs25.1 in FY2011E and Rs41 in FY2012E.
We believe that strong demand, prevailing high capacity utilisation levels and
higher investment requirements, would help the Indian tyre Industry to arrest the
sharp decline in margins despite the upward move in input costs (rubber and
carbon black). Thus, we maintain a Buy on Ceat, with a Target Price of Rs164, at
which level the stock would trade at 4x, 4x and 0.7x FY2012E EPS, EV/EBITDA and
P/BV, respectively.
Key downside risk to our call: Rise in input costs, increasing competitive intensity
with major players diversifying globally and lower-than-anticipated growth in tyre
off-take pose downside risks to our estimates.
July 30, 2010 5

6. CEAT |1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 8: One-year forward P/BV band Exhibit 9: One-year forward EV/EBITDA band
(%) Share Price (Rs) 0.2x 0.7x 1.2x 1.7x (Rs cr) EV (Rs cr) 2x 5x 8x 11x
500 4,500
375
3,000
250
1,500
125
0 0
May-06
May-07
Jul-10
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Nov-05
Nov-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jan-10
Jul-07
Jul-08
Mar-04
Mar-05
Feb-06
Sep-03
Sep-04
Aug-05
Aug-06
Dec-08
Dec-09
Apr-03
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Source: Company, Angel Research, Bloomberg Source: Company, Angel Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 10: Tyre - Recommendation summary
CMP Tgt Price Upside P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY10-12E EPS
Company Reco.
(Rs) (Rs) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E CAGR (%)
Apollo Tyres* Buy 64 79 23.6 8.1 6.5 5.3 4.4 24.1 16.9 (12.9)
JK Tyre* Buy 164 237 44.6 4.2 3.5 4.2 2.8 9.7 15.9 (3.2)
Ceat Buy 134 164 22.2 5.3 3.3 5.1 3.7 18.7 15.0 (7.7)
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * FY11E and FY12E EPS on consolidated basis
July 30, 2010 6

7. CEAT |1QFY2011 Result Update
Profit and Loss Statement
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Gross sales 2,391 2,603 2,758 2,990 3,583 4,081
Less: Excise duty 257.5 275.4 240.0 185.3 286.7 326.5
Net Sales 2,133 2,328 2,518 2,805 3,297 3,754
Total operating income 2,133 2,328 2,518 2,805 3,297 3,754
% chg 22.3 9.1 8.2 11.4 17.5 13.9
Total Expenditure 1,995 2,133 2,495 2,509 3,083 3,458
Net Raw Materials 1,483 1,528 1,804 1,866 2,191 2,454
Other Mfg costs 173.7 205.3 210.4 252.9 278.4 313.5
Personnel 127.9 141.3 158.5 192.7 217.6 240.3
Other 210.9 258.4 322.1 197.1 395.6 450.5
EBITDA 137.8 194.2 23.4 296.0 213.7 296
% chg 78.2 40.9 (87.9) 1,162.8 (27.8) 38.6
(% of Net Sales) 6.5 8.3 0.9 10.6 6.5 7.9
Depreciation & Amortisation 31.1 33.0 25.6 26.9 39.7 44.3
EBIT 106.7 161.2 (2.2) 269.1 174.0 252
% chg 94.5 51.0 - - (35.3) 44.7
(% of Net Sales) 5.0 6.9 - 9.6 5.3 6.7
Interest & other Charges 70.3 66.5 79.9 72.3 67.8 64.1
Other Income 24.4 102.5 45.0 42.2 24.2 26.0
(% of PBT) 38.5 74.9 - 17.6 18.6 12.2
Recurring PBT 60.9 197.2 (37.2) 239.0 130.4 214
% chg 1,067.0 223.7 - - (45.4) 63.9
Extraordinary Items (2.5) 60.4 (0.3) (0.3) - -
PBT 63.4 136.9 (36.8) 239.3 130.4 214
Tax 21.7 48.7 (21.1) 74.1 44.3 73.2
(% of PBT) 34.2 35.6 - 31.0 34.0 34.3
PAT 41.7 88.1 (15.8) 165.2 86.0 140.5
Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 41.7 88.1 (15.8) 165.2 86.0 140.5
Adj. PAT 39.3 148.5 (16.1) 164.9 86.0 140.5
% chg 7,448 278.3 - - (47.8) 63.3
(% of Net Sales) 1.8 6.4 - 5.9 2.6 3.7
Basic EPS (Rs) 8.6 43.4 (4.7) 47.0 25.1 41.0
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 8.6 43.4 (4.7) 48.2 25.1 41.0
% chg 7,448 404.8 - - (47.8) 63.3
July 30, 2010 7

8. CEAT |1QFY2011 Result Update
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 45.7 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2
Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves & Surplus 333.0 479.0 454.1 594.5 662.5 783.0
Shareholders’ Funds 378.6 513.3 488.4 628.7 696.7 817.2
Total Loans 492.3 477.6 645.1 653.8 753.8 753.8
Deferred Tax Liability 23.3 27.3 16.3 20.2 21.5 24.1
Total Liabilities 894.2 1,018 1,150 1,303 1,472 1,595
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 1,113 1,214 1,234 1,256 1,763 1,925
Less: Acc. Depreciation 413.0 427.7 458.7 487.5 527.1 571.4
Net Block 700.0 786.6 775.4 768.9 1,236 1,354
Capital Work-in-Progress 10.1 3.5 19.6 233.8 52.9 19.3
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 127.8 9.6 42.7 58.5 58.5 58.5
Current Assets 581.2 772.1 819.1 1,032 954.1 1,063
Cash 40.6 41.6 201.5 140.0 58.8 42.9
Loans & Advances 56.1 81.4 79.4 110.1 129.4 147.4
Other 484.6 649.1 538.1 782.4 765.9 872.2
Current liabilities 524.9 553.7 506.9 791.0 829.2 898.9
Net Current Assets 56.2 218.5 312.2 241.4 124.9 163.6
Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 894.2 1,018 1,150 1,303 1,472 1,595
July 30, 2010 8

9. CEAT |1QFY2011 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Profit before tax 63.4 136.9 (36.8) 239.3 130.4 213.7
Depreciation 31.1 33.0 25.6 26.9 39.7 44.3
Change in Working Capital 19.3 116.1 (41.9) (10.8) (54.4) 36.9
Less: Other income (20.9) 164.5 (170.8) (68.2) (182.7) 18.7
Direct taxes paid 21.7 48.7 (21.1) 74.1 44.3 73.2
Cash Flow from Operations 113.0 72.7 138.6 249.5 254.0 203.0
(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (12.1) (94.6) (35.8) (236.6) (325.6) (128.7)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments - 118.2 (33.1) (15.8) - -
(Inc.)/Dec. in loans and adv. 7.0 9.8 (4.4) (21.5) (19.3) (18.0)
Other income 24.4 102.5 45.0 42.2 24.2 26.0
Cash Flow from Investing 19.3 135.8 (28.3) (231.8) (320.7) (120.6)
Issue of Equity - (11.4) 0.0 - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (29.0) (14.7) 167.5 8.7 100.0 -
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 9.6 15.9 - - 16.0 18.0
Others (112.0) (197.3) (117.9) (87.9) (114.1) (116.2)
Cash Flow from Financing (131.4) (207.5) 49.6 (79.2) 1.9 (98.2)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 0.9 1.0 159.9 (61.5) (64.7) (15.8)
Opening Cash balance 39.6 40.6 41.6 201.5 123.5 58.8
Closing Cash balance 40.6 41.6 201.5 140.0 58.8 42.9
July 30, 2010 9

10. CEAT |1QFY2011 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 15.6 3.1 - 2.9 5.3 3.3
P/CEPS 8.7 3.8 48.3 2.4 3.7 2.5
P/BV 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6
Dividend yield (%) 1.3 3.0 - 3.0 3.4 3.7
EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
EV/EBITDA 6.8 4.6 36.7 3.1 5.1 3.7
EV / Total Assets 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 8.6 43.4 (4.7) 47.0 25.1 41.0
EPS (fully diluted) 8.6 43.4 (4.7) 48.2 25.1 41.0
Cash EPS 15.4 35.4 2.8 55.0 36.7 54.0
DPS 1.8 4.0 - 4.0 4.5 5.0
Book Value 82.9 149.9 142.6 183.6 203.5 238.7
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin 5.0 6.9 (0.1) 9.6 5.3 6.7
Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6
RoIC (Post-tax) 9.7 12.3 (0.1) 18.5 9.3 11.6
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 9.1 8.8 6.1 7.7 6.4 5.6
Leverage (x) 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
Operating RoE 10.1 15.2 (5.2) 26.8 11.8 16.8
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax) 12.0 16.9 (0.2) 21.9 12.5 16.4
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 14.7 16.7 (0.2) 24.4 12.8 16.9
RoE 5.8 14.6 6.5 13.0 18.7 15.0
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0
Inventory / Sales (days) 35 44 41 41 41 41
Receivables (days) 44 45 45 45 44 44
Payables (days) 82 80 74 81 86 80
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 29 15 21 14 9 9
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8
Net debt to EBITDA 2.4 2.2 17.1 1.5 3.0 2.2
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 1.5 2.4 - 3.7 2.6 3.9
July 30, 2010 10

11. CEAT |1QFY2011 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
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Disclosure of Interest Statement CEAT
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
July 30, 2010 11