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4QFY2010 Result Update I IT
                                                                                                                        May 04, 2010




  Tech Mahindra                                                                         BUY
                                                                                        CMP                                   Rs 744
  Performance Highlights                                                                Target Price                         Rs1,168
  Tech Mahindra reported better-than-expected 4QFY2010 results, with revenue            Investment Period                12 months
  de-growth of 0.3% qoq at Rs1,183cr, as against our estimate of Rs1,164cr.
  Revenue growth in constant currency was 4% at US $ 264mn; however, the                Stock Info
  sharp fall in the GBP (6%) resulted in revenue underperformance in the
                                                                                        Sector                                     IT
  reported currency. EBIDTA margins remained flat on a qoq basis at 23.6%,
  despite rupee appreciation and strong net manpower addition of 3,120                  Market Cap (Rs cr)                     9,064
  employees. Profit after tax was up 31.3% qoq, on account of lower interest
                                                                                        Beta                                      0.8
  costs (down 32.3% qoq) and high other income of Rs74cr (including US
  $13.5mn on account of Fx gains). We maintain our Buy recommendation on                52 WK High / Low
  the stock.                                                                                                                1158/326
                                                                                        Avg. Daily Volume                    2,61,167
  Growth-backed by strong volumes from BT: The Revenue growth was largely               Face Value (Rs)                           10
  driven by strong volume growth of about ~6.5% qoq in the Top account (BT),
  whereas the rest of the clients recorded a cumulative volume growth of 1.8%           BSE Sensex                            17,929
  qoq. The growth in BT was supported by a short-term (non-recurring) project in
                                                                                        Nifty                                  5,148
  4QFY2010, and would continue its GBP 70-72mn run-rate in the coming
  quarters. The operating profit remained flat at Rs279cr (as against Rs281cr in        Reuters Code                         TEML.BO
  3QFY2010), despite a negative Fx impact of ~4.5%. The lower realisations on
                                                                                        Bloomberg Code                      TECHM.IN
  revenues were compensated to a certain extent, as the company managed a
  US $13.5mn profit on account of exchange gains. The interest cost was down            Shareholding Pattern (%)
  by 32% qoq, as it paid another Rs350cr of loans from the restructuring fee
  received in 3QFY2010. Thus, the bottom-line grew by 31.3% qoq to Rs227cr.             Promoters                              74.85

                                                                                        MF/Banks/Indian FLs                     8.68
  Outlook and Valuation: We expect Tech Mahindra to record an 11% CAGR in
  its Top-line over FY2010-12E (excluding Mahindra Satyam), while the Bottom-           FII/NRIs/OCBs                           0.61
  line is expected to grow at a compounded rate of 11.6% over FY2010-12E. We
                                                                                        Indian Public                          15.86
  have valued TechM on an SOTP basis, valuing Tech Mahindra (excluding
  Satyam) at 13x of its expected FY2012E EPS of Rs67.8, at a 40% discount to            Abs. (%)            3m        1yr         3yr
  our Infosys target multiple of 22x (Historical discount of 22%), and valuing
  Satyam’s stake at Rs274 per share, based on a Market cap basis, applying a            Sensex              5.6       41.2       23.0
  25% holding company discount, to arrive at a target price of Rs1,155. Hence,
                                                                                        TechM             (21.4)   121.8         (54.9)
  we maintain our Buy recommendation.

    Key Financials (Consolidated excl. Mahindra Satyam)
    Y/E March (Rs cr)                   FY2009       FY2010E      FY2011E   FY2012E
   Net Sales                              4,465         4,625       4,989     5,704
   % chg                                     3.6           7.9       14.3      15.0
   Net Profit                             1,089            709       763       876
   % chg                                  207.5         (31.0)        8.9      14.8
   EBITDA Margin (%)                       29.0           24.5       24.0      23.0
   FDEPS (Rs)                              77.6           53.6       58.3      67.0
   P/E (x)                                   8.9          13.0       12.2      11.0   Rahul Jain
   P/BV (x)                                  4.6           3.5        2.7       2.1   Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 345
                                                                                      E-mail: Rahul.j@angeltrade.com
   RoE (%)                                 63.0           30.6       24.9      22.0
   RoACE (%)                               85.9           76.7       82.7      73.4
                                                                                      Vibha Salvi
   EV/Sales (x)                              1.8           1.5        1.3       1.0
                                                                                      Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 329
   EV/EBITDA (x)                             6.2           5.9        5.3       4.3
                                                                                      E-mail: vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
  Source: Company, Angel Research




                                                                                                                                        1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                         Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update



 Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance (Consolidated)
 Y/E March (Rs cr)                      4Q FY10        3Q FY10        % chg (qoq)            4Q FY09                 % chg (yoy)           FY2010         FY2009         % chg
 Net Revenues                             1,183            1,187                 (0.3)            1,051                         12.6        4,625             4,465         3.6
 Cost of Revenues                           737              751                 (1.9)              611                         20.6        2,871             2,571        11.7
 Gross Profit                               446              436                   2.3              440                           1.4       1,754             1,894       (7.4)
 SG&A Expenses                              167              155                   7.7              156                           7.4         622               612         1.7
 Operating Profit (EBITDA)                  279              281                 (0.7)              284                         (1.9)       1,133             1,283      (11.7)
 Other Income                                74                1                                       8                                       75               (38)
 Interest                                    31               46               (32.3)                  2                                      218                   3
 Depreciation                                40               33                 20.7                29                         39.7          134               110        22.1
 Income before Income Taxes                 282              202                 39.3               261                          7.9          856             1,133      (24.5)
 Tax                                         54               29                 89.8                31                         77.0          144               118        22.1
 Minority Interest                           (1)              (1)              (35.2)                (0)                                       (3)                (0)
 Extraordinary Items                           -                                                       -                                       (9)                  -
 Net Income                                 227              173                 31.3               230                         (1.5)         700             1,015      (31.0)
 Diluted EPS (Rs)                          17.4             13.0                 34.0              17.9                         (2.7)        54.4              78.8      (31.0)
 Gross Profit Margin (%)                   37.7             36.7                                   41.8                                      37.9              42.4
 EBITDA Margin (%)                         23.6             23.6                                   27.0                                      24.5              28.7
 Net Profit Margin (%)                     19.2             14.6                                   21.9                                      15.1              22.7
 Source :Company Data, Angel research


                                          Top-line supported by Strong Volume growth in BT

                                          Tech Mahindra’s revenues de-grew by 0.3% qoq (up 12.6% yoy), led by a strong
                                          volume growth of 4.1% qoq. The volume growth in the Top account was up by
                                          ~6.5% supported by a short-term (non-recurring) project concluding in 4QFY2010.
                                          However, the management has guided towards a sustained revenue run-rate of GBP
                                          70-72mn from BT for the foreseeable future. The company is still negotiating for the
                                          Andes deal, but is confident of maintaining its business flow from BT. The volume
                                          for the non-BT business grew by ~1.8%. The contribution from the Top 2-5 clients
                                          fell by 9% qoq to US $67mn (from US $74mn). Volumes for the BPO segment grew
                                          by 8.2% qoq; thus, the company continued its hiring in the segment. The BPO
                                          headcount has gone up to 8,087 in 4QFY2010 from 3,769 in 4QFY2009. The total
                                          employee count touched 33,524 at the end of the quarter, with a net addition of
                                          3,120. The company marked a net client addition of 3 clients to 113, largely in the
                                          RoW (Rest of the World) market. Geography-wise, the growth momentum came
                                          from Europe, where the total contribution grew by 1%, from 56% in 3QFY2010 to
                                          57% in 4QFY2010, despite a severe Fx headwind (in terms of GBP depreciation
                                          against the USD).

                                           Exhibit 2: Revenue Mix Trend
                                                     750
                                                     700
                                                     650
                                                     600
                                                     550
                                                     500
                                           (Rs cr)




                                                     450
                                                     400
                                                     350
                                                     300
                                                             1QFY08

                                                                      2QFY08

                                                                               3QFY08

                                                                                         4QFY08

                                                                                                   1QFY09

                                                                                                            2QFY09

                                                                                                                       3QFY09

                                                                                                                                  4QFY09

                                                                                                                                            1QFY10

                                                                                                                                                     2QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                3QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                         4QFY10




                                                                                        BT Revenue                   Non BT Revenue

                                          Source: Company Data, Angel research
May 4, 2010                                                                                                                                                                       2
Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update



              EBITDA margins remain flat

              The company witnessed a 98bp qoq reduction in the cost of revenues; however, the
              SG&A spends moved up by 106bp qoq, resulting in a flattish EBIDTA margin for the
              quarter.

              Exhibit 3: EBITDA Margin Trend

                    34
                    32
                    30
                    28
              (%)



                    26
                    24
                    22
                    20
                          1QFY08

                                   2QFY08

                                            3QFY08

                                                     4QFY08

                                                              1QFY09

                                                                          2QFY09

                                                                                   3QFY09

                                                                                            4QFY09

                                                                                                     1QFY10

                                                                                                              2QFY10

                                                                                                                       3QFY10

                                                                                                                                4QFY10
              Source: Company Data, Angel research

              Interest costs went down by 32% qoq, as the company paid debt worth Rs350cr from
              the restructuring fee received in 3QFY2010. The total debt as on FY2010E is
              ~1,370cr, at a cost of 7%. Other income of Rs74cr during the quarter lifted the
              bottom-line by 31% qoq to Rs227cr. The other Income largely includes exchange
              gains of about Rs60cr on the hedging portfolio. The effective Tax rate for the quarter
              was 19.2%, as against 14.1% in 3QFY2010, on account of the higher other income
              component. The profit margin, after adjusting for other income, showed an
              improvement of 80bp, on a sequential basis, to 15.4%.

              Profitability buoyed by lower interest costs and high Other Income

              The operating margin for the quarter was maintained at 23.6% in 4QFY2010, as
              the company saved on salary costs through higher efficiency, covering up for the
              weaker realisations (due to the INR appreciation). The utilisation remained flat at
              73%, absorbing the increase in employee additions. Going forward, margins may
              come under pressure as the company may announce wage hikes in 1QFY2010, in
              line with its competitors.

              Mahindra Satyam Financial Performance likely to be announced by June 30, 2010

              The Financials of Mahindra Satyam are likely to be declared by June 30, 2010,
              which may add a profit contribution from the associate from 2QFY2011E. We have
              valued Satyam on a market cap basis, providing for a 25% holding company
              discount. The per share value of Satyam for TechM shareholders stood at Rs274.




May 4, 2010                                                                                                                              3
Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update


              Outlook and Valuation

              Tech Mahindra has been consistently winning big deals in the telecom space and
              has emerged as a preferred vendor of choice in the telecom vertical. The company
              has been constantly expanding its focus into North America and Asia to cover up for
              its stagnant revenue stream from the European market. We believe that the
              uncertainty on restructuring with BT (46% of total revenues) has posed a severe
              overhang on the future revenue growth of the company. However, the company has
              been clocking strong revenue traction in the Non-BT business, registering a CQGR
              of 7% over 1QFY2008-4QFY2010. The management is confident of maintaining
              the business momentum with BT, with an expected annual run-rate of GBP
              ~285mn; thus, the revenue growth would largely remain a function of non-BT
              business in FY2011E. The Net Profitability has dropped by 760bp in FY2010 over
              FY2009 to 15.1%. We expect the company to maintain its profitability, as it has
              headroom for efficiency in utilisation (73%) and S&M expenses, in view of its higher
              business visibility (assured volume on the BT Strada project), which would cushion
              margin pressures.

              Exhibit 4: Key Financial Assumptions
                                                                                                 FY2009      FY2010E              FY2011E            FY2012E
              Revenue Mix (%)
              BT                                                                                      58               47                    41             40
              Non-BT                                                                                  42               53                    59             60
              EBIT Margin (%)
              BT                                                                                   24.8               18.5            16.5                 16.0
              Non-BT                                                                               29.0               24.5            24.0                 22.5
              Source: Company, Angel Research

              We expect Tech Mahindra to record an 11% CAGR in its Top-line over FY2010-12E
              (excluding Mahindra Satyam), while the Bottom-line is expected to grow at a
              compounded rate of 11.6% over FY2010-12E. We have valued TechM on an SOTP
              basis, valuing Tech Mahindra (excluding Satyam) at 13x of its expected FY2012E
              EPS of Rs67.8, at a 40% discount to our Infosys target multiple of 22x (Historical
              discount of 22%), and valuing Satyam’s stake at Rs274 per share, based on a
              Market cap basis, applying a 25% holding company discount, to arrive at a target
              price of Rs1,155. Hence, we maintain our Buy recommendation.

              Exhibit 5: One year forward P/E Band

                                  2400
                                  2200
                                  2000
                                                                                                                                                                 34x
                                  1800
               Share Price (Rs)




                                  1600
                                  1400                                                                                                                           26x
                                  1200
                                  1000                                                                                                                           18x
                                   800
                                   600                                                                                                                           10x
                                   400
                                   200
                                     0
                                                           Apr-07




                                                                                        Apr-08




                                                                                                                         Apr-09




                                                                                                                                                            Apr-10
                                         Aug-06




                                                                    Aug-07




                                                                                                    Aug-08




                                                                                                                                    Aug-09
                                                  Dec-06




                                                                             Dec-07




                                                                                                             Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                  Dec-09




              Source: Company, Angel Research




May 4, 2010                                                                                                                                                          4
Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update



              Exhibit 6: Premium/Discount in Tech Mahindra P/E v/s Infosys P/E
                      25
                      15
                        5
                       (5)
                      (15)




                (%)
                      (25)
                      (35)
                      (45)
                      (55)
                      (65)
                      (75)




                                               Apr-07




                                                                             Apr-08




                                                                                                          Apr-09




                                                                                                                                     Apr-10
                             Aug-06




                                                        Aug-07




                                                                                        Aug-08




                                                                                                                   Aug-09
                                      Dec-06




                                                                 Dec-07




                                                                                                 Dec-08




                                                                                                                            Dec-09
                                         Premium/Discount to Infosys                  Avg. Historical Discount to Infosys

              Source: Company, Angel Research




May 4, 2010                                                                                                                            5
Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update



              Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)                                              (Rs cr)
               Y/E March                               FY2008    FY2009    FY2010E    FY2011E   FY2012E
               Gross sales                              3,766     4,465      4,625      4,989     5,704
               Less: Excise duty                             -         -          -         -          -
               Net Sales                                3,766     4,465      4,625      4,989     5,704
               Other operating income                        -         -          -         -          -
               Total operating income                   3,766     4,465      4,625      4,989     5,704
               % chg                                     28.6       18.5       3.6        7.9      14.3
               Total Expenditure                        3,377     3,172      3,493      3,791     4,390
               Cost of Services                          608        704       745        828       961
               SGA                                      752.7     599.0      651.8      708.5     801.4
               Personnel                                1,577     1,868      2,096      2,254     2,627
               Others                                   440.0          -          -         -          -
               EBITDA                                    389      1,293      1,133      1,198     1,314
               % chg                                     78.7     232.4      (12.4)       5.8       9.6
               (% of Net Sales)                          10.3      29.0       24.5       24.0      23.0
               Depreciation& Amortisation                79.6     109.7      133.9      159.4     181.3
               EBIT                                      309      1,183       999       1,039     1,133
               % chg                                     86.2     282.4      (15.6)       4.0       9.0
               (% of Net Sales)                           8.2      26.5       21.6       20.8      19.9
               Interest & other Charges                   6.2        2.5     218.4      119.0      34.0
               Other Income                              27.3      26.5       75.4       10.0      10.0
               (% of PBT)                                 8.3        2.2       8.8        1.1       0.9
               Share in profit of Associates                 -         -          -         -          -
               Recurring PBT                            330.5    1,207.3     855.6      930.0   1,108.6
               % chg                                    150.0     180.2      (25.2)       9.8      19.2
               Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)             (73.7)     74.8        8.5          -          -
               PBT (reported)                           404.2    1,132.5     847.1      930.0   1,108.6
               Tax                                       74.8     117.9      144.0      167.4     232.8
               (% of PBT)                                18.5       10.4      17.0       18.0      21.0
               PAT (reported)                           329.4    1,014.6     703.2      762.6     875.8
               Add: Share of earnings of associate           -         -          -         -          -
               Less: Minority interest (MI)              (0.5)       0.1       2.8        0.0       0.0
               Prior period items                            -         -          -         -          -
               PAT after MI (reported)                  329.9    1,014.5     700.4      762.6     875.8
               ADJ. PAT                                 256.2    1,089.3     708.9      762.6     875.8
               % chg                                    276.6     207.5      (31.0)       8.9      14.8
               (% of Net Sales)                           8.8      22.7       15.1       15.3      15.4
               Basic EPS (Rs)                            27.2      83.3       57.3       60.7      67.8
               Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)                    25.6      77.6       53.6       58.3      67.0
               % chg                                    276.6     207.5      (31.0)       8.9      14.8




May 4, 2010                                                                                                6
Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update



              Balance Sheet (Consolidated)                                                          (Rs cr)
               Y/E Mar                              FY2008    FY2009      FY2010E     FY2011E     FY2012E
               SOURCES OF FUNDS
               Equity Share Capital                  121.4     121.7        122.2       125.7       129.2
               Preference Capital                         -          -           -           -           -
               Reserves& Surplus                     1,147     1,833        2,509       3,373       4,349
               Shareholders Funds                    1,268     1,954        2,631       3,499       4,478
               Total Loans                            30.0           -      1,400         800            -
               Deferred Tax Liability                 (6.0)    (19.6)            -           -           -
               Total Liabilities                     1,292     1,935        4,031       4,299       4,478
               APPLICATION OF FUNDS
               Gross Block                            635        900        1,100       1,275       1,450
               Less: Acc. Depreciation                310        410          544         703         885
               Net Block                             325.0     490.3        556.4       572.0       565.7
               Capital Work-in-Progress              164.0     154.1        204.1       229.1       179.1
               Others                                110.6        7.6         7.6         7.6         7.6
               Investments                              63       435        2,947       2,872       2,822
               Current Assets                        1,556     1,737        2,103       2,321       2,541
               Cash                                     98       538          806         958       1,069
               Loans & Advances                      256.8     295.3        330.3       310.3       310.3
               Other                                 1,202       904          967       1,052       1,162
               Current liabilities                    927        889        1,787       1,702       1,637
               Net Current Assets                     629        848          316         619         904
               Mis. Exp. not written off                  -          -           -           -           -
               Total Assets                          1,292     1,935        4,031       4,299       4,478

              Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)                                                    (Rs cr)
               Y/E March                            FY2008    FY2009       FY2010E    FY2011E     FY2012E
               Profit before tax                      404.2   1,132.5         847.1      930.0     1,108.6
               Depreciation                            79.6      109.7        133.9      159.4        181.3
               Change in Working Capital            (155.6)     131.7         819.3    (150.0)      (175.0)
               Less: Other income                      33.7      (38.8)        78.1        10.0        10.0
               Direct taxes paid                       99.9      190.2        144.0      167.4        232.8
               Cash Flow from Operations              194.6   1,222.5       1,578.2      762.0        872.1
               (Inc)./ Dec in Fixed Assets          (229.6)    (251.3)      (250.0)     200.0        125.0
               (Inc)./ Dec. in Investments             38.9    (377.8)    (2,512.0)      (75.0)       (50.0)
               (Inc)./ Dec. in loans and advances
               Other income                           11.2       15.1         75.4         10.0        10.0
               Cash Flow from Investing             (179.5)   (614.0)     (2,686.6)      115.0         65.0
               Issue of Equity                         1.1        3.1         25.5       178.5       178.5
               Inc./(Dec.) in loans                   15.3      (30.0)       1,400        (600)       (800)
               Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)               6.2     137.7          49.6         72.9        74.9
               Others
               Cash Flow from Financing               10.2    (164.6)      1,375.9      (494.4)     (696.4)
               Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                    25.3     443.9         267.5       152.6       110.7
               Opening Cash balances                  67.4      92.7         538.2       805.7       958.3
               Closing Cash balances                  92.7     538.2         805.7       958.3     1,069.0




May 4, 2010                                                                                                  7
Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update



              Key Ratios
               Y/E Oct                                  FY2008    FY2009    FY2010E    FY2011E    FY2012E
               Valuation Ratio (x)
               P/E (on FDEPS)                             27.3       8.9       13.0       12.2       11.0
               P/CEPS                                     21.9       8.0       10.9       10.1        9.1
               P/BV                                        7.1       4.6        3.5        2.7        2.1
               Dividend yield (%)                          0.7       0.5        0.5        0.7        0.7
               EV/Sales                                    2.4       1.8        1.5        1.3        1.0
               EV/EBITDA                                  22.8       6.2        5.9        5.3        4.3
               EV / Total Assets                           4.0       2.9        1.2        1.1        0.9
               Per Share Data (Rs)
               EPS (Basic)                                27.2      83.3       57.3       60.7       67.8
               EPS (fully diluted)                        25.6      77.6       53.6       58.3       67.0
               Cash EPS                                   34.0      92.6       68.2       73.4       81.8
               DPS                                         5.5       4.0        3.5        5.0        5.0
               Book Value                                104.5     160.5      215.1      278.4      346.6
               Dupont Analysis
               EBIT margin                                 8.2      26.5       21.6       20.8       19.9
               Tax retention ratio                        81.5      89.6       83.0       82.0       79.0
               Asset turnover (x)                          1.8       2.4        2.2        2.3        2.6
               ROIC (Post-tax)                            12.3      57.3       40.1       39.2       40.2
               Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                     5.3       1.7        5.3        1.9        1.8
               Leverage (x)                                0.0         -        0.5        0.2          -
               Operating ROE                              12.4      57.3       58.7       47.8       40.2
               Returns (%)
               ROCE (Pre-tax)                             29.7      85.9       76.7       82.7       73.4
               Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)                       33.2      89.8       77.2       83.2       73.8
               ROE                                        30.0      63.0       30.6       24.9       22.0
               Turnover ratios (x)
               Asset Turnover (Gross Block)                5.9       5.0        4.2        3.9        3.9
               Inventory / Sales (days)                      -         -          -          -          -
               Receivables (days)                        106.3      73.8       75.5       75.5       72.4
               Payables (days)                            80.2      72.1       69.5       74.6       71.4
               Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)     52.1      15.7       21.7       16.5       12.8
               Solvency ratios (x)
               Net debt to equity                         (0.0)     (0.2)      (0.6)      (0.6)      (0.6)
               Net debt to EBITDA                         (0.1)     (0.3)      (1.4)      (1.7)      (2.1)
               Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)        49.9     473.3         4.6        8.7      33.3




May 4, 2010                                                                                              8
Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update




Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800                                          E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                       Website: www.angeltrade.com


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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true,
and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly,
we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or
other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services
in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited nor its directors, employees and affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the
use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                       Tech Mahindra
 1.    Analyst ownership of the stock                                                           No
 2.    Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                                     No
 3.    Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock                          No
 4.    Broking relationship with company covered                                                No
   Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.




                                Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                                    Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800



    Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
    INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
    Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
    CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302



May 4, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                 9

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Tech Mahindra Result Update 4qfy2010-040510

  • 1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I IT May 04, 2010 Tech Mahindra BUY CMP Rs 744 Performance Highlights Target Price Rs1,168 Tech Mahindra reported better-than-expected 4QFY2010 results, with revenue Investment Period 12 months de-growth of 0.3% qoq at Rs1,183cr, as against our estimate of Rs1,164cr. Revenue growth in constant currency was 4% at US $ 264mn; however, the Stock Info sharp fall in the GBP (6%) resulted in revenue underperformance in the Sector IT reported currency. EBIDTA margins remained flat on a qoq basis at 23.6%, despite rupee appreciation and strong net manpower addition of 3,120 Market Cap (Rs cr) 9,064 employees. Profit after tax was up 31.3% qoq, on account of lower interest Beta 0.8 costs (down 32.3% qoq) and high other income of Rs74cr (including US $13.5mn on account of Fx gains). We maintain our Buy recommendation on 52 WK High / Low the stock. 1158/326 Avg. Daily Volume 2,61,167 Growth-backed by strong volumes from BT: The Revenue growth was largely Face Value (Rs) 10 driven by strong volume growth of about ~6.5% qoq in the Top account (BT), whereas the rest of the clients recorded a cumulative volume growth of 1.8% BSE Sensex 17,929 qoq. The growth in BT was supported by a short-term (non-recurring) project in Nifty 5,148 4QFY2010, and would continue its GBP 70-72mn run-rate in the coming quarters. The operating profit remained flat at Rs279cr (as against Rs281cr in Reuters Code TEML.BO 3QFY2010), despite a negative Fx impact of ~4.5%. The lower realisations on Bloomberg Code TECHM.IN revenues were compensated to a certain extent, as the company managed a US $13.5mn profit on account of exchange gains. The interest cost was down Shareholding Pattern (%) by 32% qoq, as it paid another Rs350cr of loans from the restructuring fee received in 3QFY2010. Thus, the bottom-line grew by 31.3% qoq to Rs227cr. Promoters 74.85 MF/Banks/Indian FLs 8.68 Outlook and Valuation: We expect Tech Mahindra to record an 11% CAGR in its Top-line over FY2010-12E (excluding Mahindra Satyam), while the Bottom- FII/NRIs/OCBs 0.61 line is expected to grow at a compounded rate of 11.6% over FY2010-12E. We Indian Public 15.86 have valued TechM on an SOTP basis, valuing Tech Mahindra (excluding Satyam) at 13x of its expected FY2012E EPS of Rs67.8, at a 40% discount to Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr our Infosys target multiple of 22x (Historical discount of 22%), and valuing Satyam’s stake at Rs274 per share, based on a Market cap basis, applying a Sensex 5.6 41.2 23.0 25% holding company discount, to arrive at a target price of Rs1,155. Hence, TechM (21.4) 121.8 (54.9) we maintain our Buy recommendation. Key Financials (Consolidated excl. Mahindra Satyam) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 4,465 4,625 4,989 5,704 % chg 3.6 7.9 14.3 15.0 Net Profit 1,089 709 763 876 % chg 207.5 (31.0) 8.9 14.8 EBITDA Margin (%) 29.0 24.5 24.0 23.0 FDEPS (Rs) 77.6 53.6 58.3 67.0 P/E (x) 8.9 13.0 12.2 11.0 Rahul Jain P/BV (x) 4.6 3.5 2.7 2.1 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 345 E-mail: Rahul.j@angeltrade.com RoE (%) 63.0 30.6 24.9 22.0 RoACE (%) 85.9 76.7 82.7 73.4 Vibha Salvi EV/Sales (x) 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.0 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 329 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.2 5.9 5.3 4.3 E-mail: vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research 1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2. Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) 4Q FY10 3Q FY10 % chg (qoq) 4Q FY09 % chg (yoy) FY2010 FY2009 % chg Net Revenues 1,183 1,187 (0.3) 1,051 12.6 4,625 4,465 3.6 Cost of Revenues 737 751 (1.9) 611 20.6 2,871 2,571 11.7 Gross Profit 446 436 2.3 440 1.4 1,754 1,894 (7.4) SG&A Expenses 167 155 7.7 156 7.4 622 612 1.7 Operating Profit (EBITDA) 279 281 (0.7) 284 (1.9) 1,133 1,283 (11.7) Other Income 74 1 8 75 (38) Interest 31 46 (32.3) 2 218 3 Depreciation 40 33 20.7 29 39.7 134 110 22.1 Income before Income Taxes 282 202 39.3 261 7.9 856 1,133 (24.5) Tax 54 29 89.8 31 77.0 144 118 22.1 Minority Interest (1) (1) (35.2) (0) (3) (0) Extraordinary Items - - (9) - Net Income 227 173 31.3 230 (1.5) 700 1,015 (31.0) Diluted EPS (Rs) 17.4 13.0 34.0 17.9 (2.7) 54.4 78.8 (31.0) Gross Profit Margin (%) 37.7 36.7 41.8 37.9 42.4 EBITDA Margin (%) 23.6 23.6 27.0 24.5 28.7 Net Profit Margin (%) 19.2 14.6 21.9 15.1 22.7 Source :Company Data, Angel research Top-line supported by Strong Volume growth in BT Tech Mahindra’s revenues de-grew by 0.3% qoq (up 12.6% yoy), led by a strong volume growth of 4.1% qoq. The volume growth in the Top account was up by ~6.5% supported by a short-term (non-recurring) project concluding in 4QFY2010. However, the management has guided towards a sustained revenue run-rate of GBP 70-72mn from BT for the foreseeable future. The company is still negotiating for the Andes deal, but is confident of maintaining its business flow from BT. The volume for the non-BT business grew by ~1.8%. The contribution from the Top 2-5 clients fell by 9% qoq to US $67mn (from US $74mn). Volumes for the BPO segment grew by 8.2% qoq; thus, the company continued its hiring in the segment. The BPO headcount has gone up to 8,087 in 4QFY2010 from 3,769 in 4QFY2009. The total employee count touched 33,524 at the end of the quarter, with a net addition of 3,120. The company marked a net client addition of 3 clients to 113, largely in the RoW (Rest of the World) market. Geography-wise, the growth momentum came from Europe, where the total contribution grew by 1%, from 56% in 3QFY2010 to 57% in 4QFY2010, despite a severe Fx headwind (in terms of GBP depreciation against the USD). Exhibit 2: Revenue Mix Trend 750 700 650 600 550 500 (Rs cr) 450 400 350 300 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 BT Revenue Non BT Revenue Source: Company Data, Angel research May 4, 2010 2
  • 3. Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update EBITDA margins remain flat The company witnessed a 98bp qoq reduction in the cost of revenues; however, the SG&A spends moved up by 106bp qoq, resulting in a flattish EBIDTA margin for the quarter. Exhibit 3: EBITDA Margin Trend 34 32 30 28 (%) 26 24 22 20 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 Source: Company Data, Angel research Interest costs went down by 32% qoq, as the company paid debt worth Rs350cr from the restructuring fee received in 3QFY2010. The total debt as on FY2010E is ~1,370cr, at a cost of 7%. Other income of Rs74cr during the quarter lifted the bottom-line by 31% qoq to Rs227cr. The other Income largely includes exchange gains of about Rs60cr on the hedging portfolio. The effective Tax rate for the quarter was 19.2%, as against 14.1% in 3QFY2010, on account of the higher other income component. The profit margin, after adjusting for other income, showed an improvement of 80bp, on a sequential basis, to 15.4%. Profitability buoyed by lower interest costs and high Other Income The operating margin for the quarter was maintained at 23.6% in 4QFY2010, as the company saved on salary costs through higher efficiency, covering up for the weaker realisations (due to the INR appreciation). The utilisation remained flat at 73%, absorbing the increase in employee additions. Going forward, margins may come under pressure as the company may announce wage hikes in 1QFY2010, in line with its competitors. Mahindra Satyam Financial Performance likely to be announced by June 30, 2010 The Financials of Mahindra Satyam are likely to be declared by June 30, 2010, which may add a profit contribution from the associate from 2QFY2011E. We have valued Satyam on a market cap basis, providing for a 25% holding company discount. The per share value of Satyam for TechM shareholders stood at Rs274. May 4, 2010 3
  • 4. Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update Outlook and Valuation Tech Mahindra has been consistently winning big deals in the telecom space and has emerged as a preferred vendor of choice in the telecom vertical. The company has been constantly expanding its focus into North America and Asia to cover up for its stagnant revenue stream from the European market. We believe that the uncertainty on restructuring with BT (46% of total revenues) has posed a severe overhang on the future revenue growth of the company. However, the company has been clocking strong revenue traction in the Non-BT business, registering a CQGR of 7% over 1QFY2008-4QFY2010. The management is confident of maintaining the business momentum with BT, with an expected annual run-rate of GBP ~285mn; thus, the revenue growth would largely remain a function of non-BT business in FY2011E. The Net Profitability has dropped by 760bp in FY2010 over FY2009 to 15.1%. We expect the company to maintain its profitability, as it has headroom for efficiency in utilisation (73%) and S&M expenses, in view of its higher business visibility (assured volume on the BT Strada project), which would cushion margin pressures. Exhibit 4: Key Financial Assumptions FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Revenue Mix (%) BT 58 47 41 40 Non-BT 42 53 59 60 EBIT Margin (%) BT 24.8 18.5 16.5 16.0 Non-BT 29.0 24.5 24.0 22.5 Source: Company, Angel Research We expect Tech Mahindra to record an 11% CAGR in its Top-line over FY2010-12E (excluding Mahindra Satyam), while the Bottom-line is expected to grow at a compounded rate of 11.6% over FY2010-12E. We have valued TechM on an SOTP basis, valuing Tech Mahindra (excluding Satyam) at 13x of its expected FY2012E EPS of Rs67.8, at a 40% discount to our Infosys target multiple of 22x (Historical discount of 22%), and valuing Satyam’s stake at Rs274 per share, based on a Market cap basis, applying a 25% holding company discount, to arrive at a target price of Rs1,155. Hence, we maintain our Buy recommendation. Exhibit 5: One year forward P/E Band 2400 2200 2000 34x 1800 Share Price (Rs) 1600 1400 26x 1200 1000 18x 800 600 10x 400 200 0 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Source: Company, Angel Research May 4, 2010 4
  • 5. Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 6: Premium/Discount in Tech Mahindra P/E v/s Infosys P/E 25 15 5 (5) (15) (%) (25) (35) (45) (55) (65) (75) Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Premium/Discount to Infosys Avg. Historical Discount to Infosys Source: Company, Angel Research May 4, 2010 5
  • 6. Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 3,766 4,465 4,625 4,989 5,704 Less: Excise duty - - - - - Net Sales 3,766 4,465 4,625 4,989 5,704 Other operating income - - - - - Total operating income 3,766 4,465 4,625 4,989 5,704 % chg 28.6 18.5 3.6 7.9 14.3 Total Expenditure 3,377 3,172 3,493 3,791 4,390 Cost of Services 608 704 745 828 961 SGA 752.7 599.0 651.8 708.5 801.4 Personnel 1,577 1,868 2,096 2,254 2,627 Others 440.0 - - - - EBITDA 389 1,293 1,133 1,198 1,314 % chg 78.7 232.4 (12.4) 5.8 9.6 (% of Net Sales) 10.3 29.0 24.5 24.0 23.0 Depreciation& Amortisation 79.6 109.7 133.9 159.4 181.3 EBIT 309 1,183 999 1,039 1,133 % chg 86.2 282.4 (15.6) 4.0 9.0 (% of Net Sales) 8.2 26.5 21.6 20.8 19.9 Interest & other Charges 6.2 2.5 218.4 119.0 34.0 Other Income 27.3 26.5 75.4 10.0 10.0 (% of PBT) 8.3 2.2 8.8 1.1 0.9 Share in profit of Associates - - - - - Recurring PBT 330.5 1,207.3 855.6 930.0 1,108.6 % chg 150.0 180.2 (25.2) 9.8 19.2 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (73.7) 74.8 8.5 - - PBT (reported) 404.2 1,132.5 847.1 930.0 1,108.6 Tax 74.8 117.9 144.0 167.4 232.8 (% of PBT) 18.5 10.4 17.0 18.0 21.0 PAT (reported) 329.4 1,014.6 703.2 762.6 875.8 Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) (0.5) 0.1 2.8 0.0 0.0 Prior period items - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) 329.9 1,014.5 700.4 762.6 875.8 ADJ. PAT 256.2 1,089.3 708.9 762.6 875.8 % chg 276.6 207.5 (31.0) 8.9 14.8 (% of Net Sales) 8.8 22.7 15.1 15.3 15.4 Basic EPS (Rs) 27.2 83.3 57.3 60.7 67.8 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 25.6 77.6 53.6 58.3 67.0 % chg 276.6 207.5 (31.0) 8.9 14.8 May 4, 2010 6
  • 7. Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update Balance Sheet (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E Mar FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 121.4 121.7 122.2 125.7 129.2 Preference Capital - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 1,147 1,833 2,509 3,373 4,349 Shareholders Funds 1,268 1,954 2,631 3,499 4,478 Total Loans 30.0 - 1,400 800 - Deferred Tax Liability (6.0) (19.6) - - - Total Liabilities 1,292 1,935 4,031 4,299 4,478 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 635 900 1,100 1,275 1,450 Less: Acc. Depreciation 310 410 544 703 885 Net Block 325.0 490.3 556.4 572.0 565.7 Capital Work-in-Progress 164.0 154.1 204.1 229.1 179.1 Others 110.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 Investments 63 435 2,947 2,872 2,822 Current Assets 1,556 1,737 2,103 2,321 2,541 Cash 98 538 806 958 1,069 Loans & Advances 256.8 295.3 330.3 310.3 310.3 Other 1,202 904 967 1,052 1,162 Current liabilities 927 889 1,787 1,702 1,637 Net Current Assets 629 848 316 619 904 Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - Total Assets 1,292 1,935 4,031 4,299 4,478 Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 404.2 1,132.5 847.1 930.0 1,108.6 Depreciation 79.6 109.7 133.9 159.4 181.3 Change in Working Capital (155.6) 131.7 819.3 (150.0) (175.0) Less: Other income 33.7 (38.8) 78.1 10.0 10.0 Direct taxes paid 99.9 190.2 144.0 167.4 232.8 Cash Flow from Operations 194.6 1,222.5 1,578.2 762.0 872.1 (Inc)./ Dec in Fixed Assets (229.6) (251.3) (250.0) 200.0 125.0 (Inc)./ Dec. in Investments 38.9 (377.8) (2,512.0) (75.0) (50.0) (Inc)./ Dec. in loans and advances Other income 11.2 15.1 75.4 10.0 10.0 Cash Flow from Investing (179.5) (614.0) (2,686.6) 115.0 65.0 Issue of Equity 1.1 3.1 25.5 178.5 178.5 Inc./(Dec.) in loans 15.3 (30.0) 1,400 (600) (800) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 6.2 137.7 49.6 72.9 74.9 Others Cash Flow from Financing 10.2 (164.6) 1,375.9 (494.4) (696.4) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 25.3 443.9 267.5 152.6 110.7 Opening Cash balances 67.4 92.7 538.2 805.7 958.3 Closing Cash balances 92.7 538.2 805.7 958.3 1,069.0 May 4, 2010 7
  • 8. Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E Oct FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 27.3 8.9 13.0 12.2 11.0 P/CEPS 21.9 8.0 10.9 10.1 9.1 P/BV 7.1 4.6 3.5 2.7 2.1 Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 EV/Sales 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.0 EV/EBITDA 22.8 6.2 5.9 5.3 4.3 EV / Total Assets 4.0 2.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 27.2 83.3 57.3 60.7 67.8 EPS (fully diluted) 25.6 77.6 53.6 58.3 67.0 Cash EPS 34.0 92.6 68.2 73.4 81.8 DPS 5.5 4.0 3.5 5.0 5.0 Book Value 104.5 160.5 215.1 278.4 346.6 Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 8.2 26.5 21.6 20.8 19.9 Tax retention ratio 81.5 89.6 83.0 82.0 79.0 Asset turnover (x) 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 ROIC (Post-tax) 12.3 57.3 40.1 39.2 40.2 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 5.3 1.7 5.3 1.9 1.8 Leverage (x) 0.0 - 0.5 0.2 - Operating ROE 12.4 57.3 58.7 47.8 40.2 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 29.7 85.9 76.7 82.7 73.4 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 33.2 89.8 77.2 83.2 73.8 ROE 30.0 63.0 30.6 24.9 22.0 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 5.9 5.0 4.2 3.9 3.9 Inventory / Sales (days) - - - - - Receivables (days) 106.3 73.8 75.5 75.5 72.4 Payables (days) 80.2 72.1 69.5 74.6 71.4 Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) 52.1 15.7 21.7 16.5 12.8 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.0) (0.2) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) Net debt to EBITDA (0.1) (0.3) (1.4) (1.7) (2.1) Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 49.9 473.3 4.6 8.7 33.3 May 4, 2010 8
  • 9. Tech Mahindra I 4QFY2010 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited nor its directors, employees and affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement Tech Mahindra 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 May 4, 2010 9