SlideShare a Scribd company logo
20 December
2019
PAGE 2
•
10
1.9204%
10 -0.235%
•
0.86% 0.92%
419.2
•
0.57%
0.42%
0.02%
0.59%
Bloomberg 2019/12/19
0.25
-0.37
-0.46
0.25
0.55
1.65
0.53
1.02
0.59
2.07
2.03
0.26
1.66
2.12
2.30
-0.21
-0.17
0.01
0.02
0.13
0.35
0.41
0.42
0.45
0.57
0.59
0.78
0.82
0.86
0.92
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
S&P 500 1.16%
•
Johnson
600
1.84%
•
300
3.50%
•
225 1.88%
•
0.74%
Bloomberg 2019/12/19
-0.07
1.12
2.73
2.71
4.67
3.11
2.72
2.36
2.46
8.75
2.98
4.41
4.68
9.43
2.70
2.03
-0.07
0.74
1.16
1.24
1.51
1.54
1.60
1.84
1.88
2.61
2.69
3.29
3.35
3.36
3.50
3.50
DAX
BAML
S&P 500
MSCI
RTS
MSCI
600
Nikkei 225
BOVESPA
SENSEX
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
H
300
% %
PAGE 4
•
(OPEC) 120
• 12 13
108.5 ( ) 175
Bloomberg 2019/12/19
-3.54
0.43
6.53
5.79
4.50
3.81
4.46
-0.81
6.49
1.43
10.89
9.24
0.50
0.61
0.61
0.96
1.21
1.24
2.32
2.74
2.83
2.92
3.45
3.64
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 148 166
1 3
49
• 62
4.1 48
19 30
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/12/18
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
Bloomberg 2019/12/19
( 1) S&P 500
( 2) IHS Markit PMI
•
1
( 1)
500
12
1,200 15 7.5%
• Trump
Trump
Trump
1
3 2
• IHS Markit 12
(PMI) PMI 52.2 PMI
52.2 52.5( 2)
11 1.1% 2018 2
PAGE 8
( 1)
( 2) ( )
Bloomberg 2019/12/19
•
( 1)
•
Calpine Bausch
Health 3 5
• 12 14
23.4 ( 2)
2
•
(Boeing) 1 737MAX
Boeing
GDP
PAGE 9
( 1) IHS Markit PMI
( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/12/19
• IHS Markit 12
PMI 52.4 PMI
45.9( 1) 2012 10
12 Ifo 6
96.3 12 PMI 43.4
•
2020
Boris Johnson
( 2)
•
-0.1%
0.75%
• Martinet
Philippe Martinet
2
Macron
PAGE 10
Bloomberg 2019/12/19
• 11
6.2%( 1) 8%( 2)
• 7
14
2,800
1
•
2014
•
Erdogan
( 1)
( 2)
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/12/20
/ /
12/20 0.50% 0.20%
12/20 GDP( ) 0.30% 0.30%
12/20 GDP ( ) 2.10% 2.10%
12/20 0.40% 0.30%
12/20 0.30% 0.00%
12/20 99.2 99.2
12/20 IBGE IPCA-15( ) 0.94% 0.14%
12/20 109 108.5
12/20 99.1 98.9
12/23 1.50% 0.50%
12/23 730k 733k
12/23 ( ) -4.30% 1.50%
12/23 ( ) -- 0.10%
12/23 ( ) -- -1.60%
12/26 MBA -- -5.00%
12/26 -- --
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.87 (12/19)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 95.0 (12/19) 5 : 127.2
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.03 (12/19)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 319.47 (12/19) 5 : 355.8
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.69 (12/19)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 419.2 (12/19) 5 : 460.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.16 (12/19)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 326.0 (12/19) 5 : 438.4
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.49 (12/19)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 310.0 (12/19) 5 : 376.9
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.33 (12/19)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 545.6 (12/19) 5 : 516.7
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.94 (12/19)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 293.48 (12/19) 5 : 348.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.98 (12/19)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 311.70 (12/19) 5 : 337.6
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.97 (12/19)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 614.0 (12/19) 5 : 563.8
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.44 (12/19)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 255.24 (12/19) 5 : 257.6
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.4 (12/19) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 18.7 (12/19) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 15.4 (12/19) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 18.3 (12/19) 5 : 17.0
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.7 (12/19) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.5 (12/19) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 20.7 (12/19) 5 : 18.4
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.8 (12/19) 5 : 12.3
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.50 (12/19) 5 : 15.14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 53.7 (12/19) 5 : 65.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.2 (12/19) 5 : 67.2
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 285.6 (12/19) 5 : 367.2
PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/12/19 '15/12/19 '16/12/19 '17/12/19 '18/12/19 '19/12/19
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/12/19 '15/12/19 '16/12/19 '17/12/19 '18/12/19 '19/12/19
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/12/19 '15/12/19 '16/12/19 '17/12/19 '18/12/19 '19/12/19
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/12/19 '15/12/19 '16/12/19 '17/12/19 '18/12/19 '19/12/19
5 1
37.4% 0.7%
28.8% 0.2%
5 1
33.0% 0.8%
31.1% 0.1%
5 1
35.2% 0.8%
29.9% 0.1%
5 1
27.4% 0.6%
26.2% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR108259
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20191220

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 1.9204% 10 -0.235% • 0.86% 0.92% 419.2 • 0.57% 0.42% 0.02% 0.59% Bloomberg 2019/12/19 0.25 -0.37 -0.46 0.25 0.55 1.65 0.53 1.02 0.59 2.07 2.03 0.26 1.66 2.12 2.30 -0.21 -0.17 0.01 0.02 0.13 0.35 0.41 0.42 0.45 0.57 0.59 0.78 0.82 0.86 0.92 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • S&P 500 1.16% • Johnson 600 1.84% • 300 3.50% • 225 1.88% • 0.74% Bloomberg 2019/12/19 -0.07 1.12 2.73 2.71 4.67 3.11 2.72 2.36 2.46 8.75 2.98 4.41 4.68 9.43 2.70 2.03 -0.07 0.74 1.16 1.24 1.51 1.54 1.60 1.84 1.88 2.61 2.69 3.29 3.35 3.36 3.50 3.50 DAX BAML S&P 500 MSCI RTS MSCI 600 Nikkei 225 BOVESPA SENSEX MSCI MSCI MSCI H 300 % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • (OPEC) 120 • 12 13 108.5 ( ) 175 Bloomberg 2019/12/19 -3.54 0.43 6.53 5.79 4.50 3.81 4.46 -0.81 6.49 1.43 10.89 9.24 0.50 0.61 0.61 0.96 1.21 1.24 2.32 2.74 2.83 2.92 3.45 3.64 LME LME CRB LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 148 166 1 3 49 • 62 4.1 48 19 30 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/12/18 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 Bloomberg 2019/12/19 ( 1) S&P 500 ( 2) IHS Markit PMI • 1 ( 1) 500 12 1,200 15 7.5% • Trump Trump Trump 1 3 2 • IHS Markit 12 (PMI) PMI 52.2 PMI 52.2 52.5( 2) 11 1.1% 2018 2
  • 9. PAGE 8 ( 1) ( 2) ( ) Bloomberg 2019/12/19 • ( 1) • Calpine Bausch Health 3 5 • 12 14 23.4 ( 2) 2 • (Boeing) 1 737MAX Boeing GDP
  • 10. PAGE 9 ( 1) IHS Markit PMI ( 2) Bloomberg 2019/12/19 • IHS Markit 12 PMI 52.4 PMI 45.9( 1) 2012 10 12 Ifo 6 96.3 12 PMI 43.4 • 2020 Boris Johnson ( 2) • -0.1% 0.75% • Martinet Philippe Martinet 2 Macron
  • 11. PAGE 10 Bloomberg 2019/12/19 • 11 6.2%( 1) 8%( 2) • 7 14 2,800 1 • 2014 • Erdogan ( 1) ( 2)
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2019/12/20 / / 12/20 0.50% 0.20% 12/20 GDP( ) 0.30% 0.30% 12/20 GDP ( ) 2.10% 2.10% 12/20 0.40% 0.30% 12/20 0.30% 0.00% 12/20 99.2 99.2 12/20 IBGE IPCA-15( ) 0.94% 0.14% 12/20 109 108.5 12/20 99.1 98.9 12/23 1.50% 0.50% 12/23 730k 733k 12/23 ( ) -4.30% 1.50% 12/23 ( ) -- 0.10% 12/23 ( ) -- -1.60% 12/26 MBA -- -5.00% 12/26 -- --
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE (%) (bp) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 2.87 (12/19) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 95.0 (12/19) 5 : 127.2 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.03 (12/19) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 319.47 (12/19) 5 : 355.8
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.69 (12/19) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 419.2 (12/19) 5 : 460.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.16 (12/19) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 326.0 (12/19) 5 : 438.4
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 3.49 (12/19) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 310.0 (12/19) 5 : 376.9 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 7.33 (12/19) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 545.6 (12/19) 5 : 516.7
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 4.94 (12/19) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 293.48 (12/19) 5 : 348.2 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 4.98 (12/19) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 311.70 (12/19) 5 : 337.6
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.97 (12/19) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 614.0 (12/19) 5 : 563.8 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 4.44 (12/19) 0 100 200 300 400 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 255.24 (12/19) 5 : 257.6
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 17.4 (12/19) 5 : 16.2 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 18.7 (12/19) 5 : 17.1 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 15.4 (12/19) 5 : 14.9 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 18.3 (12/19) 5 : 17.0
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.7 (12/19) 5 : 12.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.5 (12/19) 5 : 12.7 5 10 15 20 25 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 20.7 (12/19) 5 : 18.4 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.8 (12/19) 5 : 12.3
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.50 (12/19) 5 : 15.14 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 53.7 (12/19) 5 : 65.5 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 61.2 (12/19) 5 : 67.2 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2012 : 285.6 (12/19) 5 : 367.2
  • 22. PAGE 21 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/12/19 '15/12/19 '16/12/19 '17/12/19 '18/12/19 '19/12/19 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '14/12/19 '15/12/19 '16/12/19 '17/12/19 '18/12/19 '19/12/19 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/12/19 '15/12/19 '16/12/19 '17/12/19 '18/12/19 '19/12/19 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/12/19 '15/12/19 '16/12/19 '17/12/19 '18/12/19 '19/12/19 5 1 37.4% 0.7% 28.8% 0.2% 5 1 33.0% 0.8% 31.1% 0.1% 5 1 35.2% 0.8% 29.9% 0.1% 5 1 27.4% 0.6% 26.2% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR108259 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898