03 January
2020
PAGE 2
•
(Trump)
10
10 1.8771%
10
-0.223%
•
0.18%
0.47% 415.7
•
0.37%
0.27%
0.22%
0.92%
Bloomberg 2020/01/02
0.08
0.46
2.21
0.00
0.80
0.60
0.99
1.22
1.30
1.80
2.62
1.03
1.05
2.77
4.13
0.04
0.14
0.18
0.18
0.21
0.22
0.22
0.27
0.29
0.34
0.37
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.92
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
1
S&P 500
0.55%
•
600
0.21%
• 300
300
3.14%
• 225
- (Fast Retailing) 1.12%
•
0.58%
Bloomberg 2020/01/02
0.54
4.67
4.62
2.12
3.25
4.85
5.20
8.10
2.02
8.85
12.04
8.44
8.01
7.28
9.23
8.24
-1.12
0.21
0.55
0.58
0.64
0.76
0.83
0.92
1.12
1.17
1.41
1.43
1.50
1.83
2.58
3.14
Nikkei 225
600
S&P 500
BAML
DAX
MSCI
RTS
SENSEX
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
H
300
% %
PAGE 4
•
OPEC
• 12 27
780 ( )
230
Bloomberg 2020/01/02
-1.09
4.91
5.71
3.54
5.60
3.08
3.48
-1.75
6.05
5.86
5.68
3.42
-2.19
0.00
0.52
0.69
0.75
0.84
0.95
1.20
1.43
1.66
2.07
2.20
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 6
Bloomberg 2020/01/02
1 15
( 1) S&P 500
( 2) Markit PMI
• 1 15
Trump Twitter 1 15
1 4
• Trump
1
3 3%
• 12 IHS Markit
PMI 52.4( 2) 52.5
50
PAGE 7
( 1)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/01/02
•
( 1)
•
Presidio
Zayo Group Holdings
2020
• 12 28
22.2 ( 2)
• CEO 2020
2020
2019 GDP
2018 3% 2.3% 2020
PAGE 8
• IHS Markit 12
PMI 46.3( 1) 46.9
11 50 PMI
43.7
53.9 50.4
12
2013
•
• 11 -
0.9%( 2) 2
11
-2.1%
10
Bloomberg 2020/01/02
( 2)
( 1) Markit PMI
PAGE 9
•
0.5% 8000
• 12 PMI
51.5( 1) 0.3% 5
4
• 12 Markit PMI
50.1( 2) 7
14
51.3
• 2019
1
Bloomberg 2019/01/02
( 2) Markit PMI
( 1) PMI
PAGE 11
Bloomberg 2020/01/03
/ /
01/03 CPI( ) 1.30% 1.00%
01/03 ISM 49 48.1
01/03 ( ) 4.0k -16.0k
01/03 CPI( ) 11.46% 10.56%
01/06 -- 48.8
01/07 -$44.5b -$47.2b
01/07 -- -2.00%
01/07 CPI- ( ) 0.20% -0.10%
01/08 ( ) 0.20% -0.40%
01/08 MBA -- -5.30%
01/08 ADP 165k 67k
01/09 PPI( ) -0.40% -1.40%
01/09 CPI( ) 4.70% 4.50%
01/09 ( ) 0.80% -1.70%
01/09 ( ) -- 1.00%
01/09 CPI( ) -- 2.97%
01/09 -- 222k
PAGE 12
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.83 (1/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 95.0 (1/2) 5 : 127.0
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.95 (1/2)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 315.64 (1/2) 5 : 355.3
PAGE 13
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.60 (1/2)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 415.7 (1/2) 5 : 460.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.13 (1/2)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 331.0 (1/2) 5 : 437.4
PAGE 14
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.43 (1/2)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 296.0 (1/2) 5 : 376.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.12 (1/2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 529.4 (1/2) 5 : 516.7
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.90 (1/2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 292.45 (1/2) 5 : 347.9
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.94 (1/2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 312.08 (1/2) 5 : 337.3
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.83 (1/2)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 604.0 (1/2) 5 : 562.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.37 (1/2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 253.85 (1/2) 5 : 257.6
PAGE 17
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 16.7 (1/2) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 18.5 (1/2) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 13.4 (1/2) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 18.0 (12/30) 5 : 17.0
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.2 (1/2) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.4 (1/2) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 20.1 (1/2) 5 : 18.4
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.5 (1/2) 5 : 12.3
PAGE 19
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.47 (1/2) 5 : 15.12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 57.2 (1/2) 5 : 65.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.4 (1/2) 5 : 67.1
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 274.6 (1/2) 5 : 366.7
PAGE 20
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/2 '16/1/2 '17/1/2 '18/1/2 '19/1/2 '20/1/2
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'15/1/2 '16/1/2 '17/1/2 '18/1/2 '19/1/2 '20/1/2
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/2 '16/1/2 '17/1/2 '18/1/2 '19/1/2 '20/1/2
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/2 '16/1/2 '17/1/2 '18/1/2 '19/1/2 '20/1/2
5 1
37.1% 0.6%
28.7% 0.2%
5 1
33.6% 0.4%
31.1% 0.1%
5 1
35.3% 0.5%
29.9% 0.1%
5 1
28.1% 0.4%
26.2% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 21
TR109002
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

柏瑞週報 20200103

  • 1.
  • 3.
    PAGE 2 • (Trump) 10 10 1.8771% 10 -0.223% • 0.18% 0.47%415.7 • 0.37% 0.27% 0.22% 0.92% Bloomberg 2020/01/02 0.08 0.46 2.21 0.00 0.80 0.60 0.99 1.22 1.30 1.80 2.62 1.03 1.05 2.77 4.13 0.04 0.14 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.27 0.29 0.34 0.37 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.92 - - % %
  • 4.
    PAGE 3 • 1 S&P 500 0.55% • 600 0.21% •300 300 3.14% • 225 - (Fast Retailing) 1.12% • 0.58% Bloomberg 2020/01/02 0.54 4.67 4.62 2.12 3.25 4.85 5.20 8.10 2.02 8.85 12.04 8.44 8.01 7.28 9.23 8.24 -1.12 0.21 0.55 0.58 0.64 0.76 0.83 0.92 1.12 1.17 1.41 1.43 1.50 1.83 2.58 3.14 Nikkei 225 600 S&P 500 BAML DAX MSCI RTS SENSEX BOVESPA MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI H 300 % %
  • 5.
    PAGE 4 • OPEC • 1227 780 ( ) 230 Bloomberg 2020/01/02 -1.09 4.91 5.71 3.54 5.60 3.08 3.48 -1.75 6.05 5.86 5.68 3.42 -2.19 0.00 0.52 0.69 0.75 0.84 0.95 1.20 1.43 1.66 2.07 2.20 LME LME CRB LME LME % %
  • 7.
    PAGE 6 Bloomberg 2020/01/02 115 ( 1) S&P 500 ( 2) Markit PMI • 1 15 Trump Twitter 1 15 1 4 • Trump 1 3 3% • 12 IHS Markit PMI 52.4( 2) 52.5 50
  • 8.
    PAGE 7 ( 1) (2) Bloomberg 2020/01/02 • ( 1) • Presidio Zayo Group Holdings 2020 • 12 28 22.2 ( 2) • CEO 2020 2020 2019 GDP 2018 3% 2.3% 2020
  • 9.
    PAGE 8 • IHSMarkit 12 PMI 46.3( 1) 46.9 11 50 PMI 43.7 53.9 50.4 12 2013 • • 11 - 0.9%( 2) 2 11 -2.1% 10 Bloomberg 2020/01/02 ( 2) ( 1) Markit PMI
  • 10.
    PAGE 9 • 0.5% 8000 •12 PMI 51.5( 1) 0.3% 5 4 • 12 Markit PMI 50.1( 2) 7 14 51.3 • 2019 1 Bloomberg 2019/01/02 ( 2) Markit PMI ( 1) PMI
  • 12.
    PAGE 11 Bloomberg 2020/01/03 // 01/03 CPI( ) 1.30% 1.00% 01/03 ISM 49 48.1 01/03 ( ) 4.0k -16.0k 01/03 CPI( ) 11.46% 10.56% 01/06 -- 48.8 01/07 -$44.5b -$47.2b 01/07 -- -2.00% 01/07 CPI- ( ) 0.20% -0.10% 01/08 ( ) 0.20% -0.40% 01/08 MBA -- -5.30% 01/08 ADP 165k 67k 01/09 PPI( ) -0.40% -1.40% 01/09 CPI( ) 4.70% 4.50% 01/09 ( ) 0.80% -1.70% 01/09 ( ) -- 1.00% 01/09 CPI( ) -- 2.97% 01/09 -- 222k
  • 13.
    PAGE 12 Bloomberg ICE* ICE (%) (bp) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 2.83 (1/2) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 95.0 (1/2) 5 : 127.0 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.95 (1/2) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 315.64 (1/2) 5 : 355.3
  • 14.
    PAGE 13 Bloomberg (%) (bp) (%)(bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.60 (1/2) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 415.7 (1/2) 5 : 460.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.13 (1/2) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 331.0 (1/2) 5 : 437.4
  • 15.
    PAGE 14 Bloomberg J.P.Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.43 (1/2) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 296.0 (1/2) 5 : 376.4 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.12 (1/2) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 529.4 (1/2) 5 : 516.7
  • 16.
    PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P.Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.90 (1/2) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 292.45 (1/2) 5 : 347.9 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.94 (1/2) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 312.08 (1/2) 5 : 337.3
  • 17.
    PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P.Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.83 (1/2) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 604.0 (1/2) 5 : 562.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.37 (1/2) 0 100 200 300 400 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 253.85 (1/2) 5 : 257.6
  • 18.
    PAGE 17 Bloomberg 12 MSCI500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 16.7 (1/2) 5 : 16.2 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 : 18.5 (1/2) 5 : 17.1 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 : 13.4 (1/2) 5 : 14.9 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 18.0 (12/30) 5 : 17.0
  • 19.
    PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 MSCI300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 13.2 (1/2) 5 : 12.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.4 (1/2) 5 : 12.7 5 10 15 20 25 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 : 20.1 (1/2) 5 : 18.4 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.5 (1/2) 5 : 12.3
  • 20.
    PAGE 19 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX // 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.47 (1/2) 5 : 15.12 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 : 57.2 (1/2) 5 : 65.5 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 61.4 (1/2) 5 : 67.1 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2012 : 274.6 (1/2) 5 : 366.7
  • 21.
    PAGE 20 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/1/2 '16/1/2'17/1/2 '18/1/2 '19/1/2 '20/1/2 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '15/1/2 '16/1/2 '17/1/2 '18/1/2 '19/1/2 '20/1/2 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/1/2 '16/1/2 '17/1/2 '18/1/2 '19/1/2 '20/1/2 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/1/2 '16/1/2 '17/1/2 '18/1/2 '19/1/2 '20/1/2 5 1 37.1% 0.6% 28.7% 0.2% 5 1 33.6% 0.4% 31.1% 0.1% 5 1 35.3% 0.5% 29.9% 0.1% 5 1 28.1% 0.4% 26.2% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 22.
    PAGE 21 TR109002 PineBridge InvestmentsIP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898