SlideShare a Scribd company logo
18 October
2019
PAGE 2
• 9
10 1.7518% 10
-0.408%
•
0.60%
0.68% 471.8
• 0.06%
0.03%
0.19%
0.60%
2.34%
Bloomberg 2019/10/17
0.56
0.51
0.52
0.48
0.01
1.00
0.69
0.33
0.29
0.98
0.55
1.18
-0.12
0.26
-0.08
-0.56
-0.46
-0.26
-0.18
-0.18
-0.09
-0.03
0.06
0.09
0.19
0.37
0.60
0.60
0.68
0.94
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
( )
S&P 500 2.04%
6.36%
8.91%
•
600 2.70%
WTO
Uniqlo 10% 225
4.18%
•
300 1.31%
•
0.58%
Bloomberg 2019/10/17
1.62
0.87
-2.03
-0.26
-0.02
0.11
0.96
2.87
-0.88
7.05
0.38
0.93
1.68
0.82
2.28
2.05
0.58
1.31
1.70
2.04
2.40
2.50
2.70
2.73
2.95
3.09
3.14
3.20
3.49
3.62
4.03
4.18
BAML
300
RTS
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
600
MSCI
SENSEX
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
H
DAX
Nikkei 225
% %
PAGE 4
•
• 10 11
930 ( ) 287.8
Bloomberg EIA 2019/10/17
-1.68
-0.54
-5.64
1.33
8.02
0.41
10.49
6.39
-1.88
7.60
-0.49
2.37
-1.35
-1.04
0.17
1.46
2.16
2.71
3.38
3.57
3.58
3.58
3.67
5.17
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 3 43
12 10
15
• 105
71 19
3
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/10/17
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
• QE
(FED)
10 15 600
2020
FED
(QE)
•
• 9
7 0.3 ( 2)
0.2%
Bloomberg 2019/10/17
( 1)
( 2)
PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Netflix 3
10
Merlin Entertainment
Legoland 20
• Q3
3 J.P Morgan, Citigroup,
Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth Group
( 2) 34
S&P 500 88%
• Netflix Netflix
680
Netflix 700
Disney+ Apple TV+
Netflix
Bloomberg 2019/10/17
( 1)
( 2) S&P 500
PAGE 9
• Johnson
( 1)
(DUP)
10 19
Johnson 320
3 May
259 DUP
85 61
• 2020
1.1%
2020
• WTO
(WTO)
11
WTO
Bloomberg 2019/10/17
( 2)
( 1)
PAGE 10
• 9
(CPI) 3.0%( 1) 6
69.3% CPI
9 (PPI)
1.2% 2016 7
• 9
2,181 3.2%
1,784 8.5%
396.5
•
50%
Pence Erdogan
5
•
( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/10/17
( 1)
( 2)
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/10/17
/ /
10/21 9 ¥50.0b -¥136.3b
10/21 8 ( ) 0.10% 0.20%
10/22 9 ( ) -0.50% 1.30%
10/23 10 -6.5 -6.5
10/24 3 GDP ( ) 0.40% 1.00%
10/24 10 Markit 46 45.7
10/24 10 Markit 52 51.6
10/24 1 -- 16.50%
10/24 0.00% 0.00%
10/24 0.25% 0.25%
10/24 -0.50% -0.50%
10/24 9 ( ) -0.60% 0.20%
10/24 10 Markit -- 51.1
10/24 9 ( ) -0.40% 7.10%
10/24 7 5.00% 5.25%
10/25 10 IFO 94.6 94.6
10/25 6.75% 7.00%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.93 (10/17)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 113.0 (10/17) 5 : 127.9
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.11 (10/17)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 337.07 (10/17) 5 : 359.0
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.16 (10/17)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 471.8 (10/17) 5 : 461.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.67 (10/17)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 380.0 (10/17) 5 : 441.2
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.85 (10/17)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 376.0 (10/17) 5 : 377.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.42 (10/17)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 573.9 (10/17) 5 : 515.1
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.18 (10/17)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 331.34 (10/17) 5 : 348.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.12 (10/17)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 343.12 (10/17) 5 : 337.5
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.26 (10/17)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 654.0 (10/17) 5 : 565.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.41 (10/17)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 271.47 (10/17) 5 : 257.4
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.1 (10/17) 5 : 16.1
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 17.2 (10/17) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 14.5 (10/17) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 16.4 (10/17) 5 : 17.1
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.6 (10/17) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.5 (10/17) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 19.1 (10/17) 5 : 18.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.8 (10/17) 5 : 12.2
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.79 (10/17) 5 : 15.20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 77.6 (10/17) 5 : 65.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 60.9 (10/17) 5 : 67.9
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 338.9 (10/17) 5 : 368.1
PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/10/17 '15/10/17 '16/10/17 '17/10/17 '18/10/17 '19/10/17
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/10/17 '15/10/17 '16/10/17 '17/10/17 '18/10/17 '19/10/17
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/10/17 '15/10/17 '16/10/17 '17/10/17 '18/10/17 '19/10/17
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/10/17 '15/10/17 '16/10/17 '17/10/17 '18/10/17 '19/10/17
5 1
37.9% 0.6%
29.0% 0.1%
5 1
26.9% 0.8%
31.2% 0.1%
5 1
32.4% 0.7%
30.1% 0.1%
5 1
23.4% 0.0%
26.3% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR108214
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20191018

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 9 10 1.7518% 10 -0.408% • 0.60% 0.68% 471.8 • 0.06% 0.03% 0.19% 0.60% 2.34% Bloomberg 2019/10/17 0.56 0.51 0.52 0.48 0.01 1.00 0.69 0.33 0.29 0.98 0.55 1.18 -0.12 0.26 -0.08 -0.56 -0.46 -0.26 -0.18 -0.18 -0.09 -0.03 0.06 0.09 0.19 0.37 0.60 0.60 0.68 0.94 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • ( ) S&P 500 2.04% 6.36% 8.91% • 600 2.70% WTO Uniqlo 10% 225 4.18% • 300 1.31% • 0.58% Bloomberg 2019/10/17 1.62 0.87 -2.03 -0.26 -0.02 0.11 0.96 2.87 -0.88 7.05 0.38 0.93 1.68 0.82 2.28 2.05 0.58 1.31 1.70 2.04 2.40 2.50 2.70 2.73 2.95 3.09 3.14 3.20 3.49 3.62 4.03 4.18 BAML 300 RTS S&P 500 MSCI MSCI 600 MSCI SENSEX BOVESPA MSCI MSCI H DAX Nikkei 225 % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • • 10 11 930 ( ) 287.8 Bloomberg EIA 2019/10/17 -1.68 -0.54 -5.64 1.33 8.02 0.41 10.49 6.39 -1.88 7.60 -0.49 2.37 -1.35 -1.04 0.17 1.46 2.16 2.71 3.38 3.57 3.58 3.58 3.67 5.17 LME LME CRB LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 3 43 12 10 15 • 105 71 19 3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/10/17 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • QE (FED) 10 15 600 2020 FED (QE) • • 9 7 0.3 ( 2) 0.2% Bloomberg 2019/10/17 ( 1) ( 2)
  • 9. PAGE 8 • ( 1) • Netflix 3 10 Merlin Entertainment Legoland 20 • Q3 3 J.P Morgan, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth Group ( 2) 34 S&P 500 88% • Netflix Netflix 680 Netflix 700 Disney+ Apple TV+ Netflix Bloomberg 2019/10/17 ( 1) ( 2) S&P 500
  • 10. PAGE 9 • Johnson ( 1) (DUP) 10 19 Johnson 320 3 May 259 DUP 85 61 • 2020 1.1% 2020 • WTO (WTO) 11 WTO Bloomberg 2019/10/17 ( 2) ( 1)
  • 11. PAGE 10 • 9 (CPI) 3.0%( 1) 6 69.3% CPI 9 (PPI) 1.2% 2016 7 • 9 2,181 3.2% 1,784 8.5% 396.5 • 50% Pence Erdogan 5 • ( 2) Bloomberg 2019/10/17 ( 1) ( 2)
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2019/10/17 / / 10/21 9 ¥50.0b -¥136.3b 10/21 8 ( ) 0.10% 0.20% 10/22 9 ( ) -0.50% 1.30% 10/23 10 -6.5 -6.5 10/24 3 GDP ( ) 0.40% 1.00% 10/24 10 Markit 46 45.7 10/24 10 Markit 52 51.6 10/24 1 -- 16.50% 10/24 0.00% 0.00% 10/24 0.25% 0.25% 10/24 -0.50% -0.50% 10/24 9 ( ) -0.60% 0.20% 10/24 10 Markit -- 51.1 10/24 9 ( ) -0.40% 7.10% 10/24 7 5.00% 5.25% 10/25 10 IFO 94.6 94.6 10/25 6.75% 7.00%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE (%) (bp) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 2.93 (10/17) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 113.0 (10/17) 5 : 127.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.11 (10/17) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 337.07 (10/17) 5 : 359.0
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.16 (10/17) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 471.8 (10/17) 5 : 461.2 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.67 (10/17) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 380.0 (10/17) 5 : 441.2
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 3.85 (10/17) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 376.0 (10/17) 5 : 377.4 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 7.42 (10/17) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 573.9 (10/17) 5 : 515.1
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 5.18 (10/17) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 331.34 (10/17) 5 : 348.3 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 5.12 (10/17) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 343.12 (10/17) 5 : 337.5
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 8.26 (10/17) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 654.0 (10/17) 5 : 565.7 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 4.41 (10/17) 0 100 200 300 400 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 271.47 (10/17) 5 : 257.4
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 16.1 (10/17) 5 : 16.1 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 17.2 (10/17) 5 : 17.0 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 14.5 (10/17) 5 : 14.9 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 16.4 (10/17) 5 : 17.1
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.6 (10/17) 5 : 12.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.5 (10/17) 5 : 12.7 5 10 15 20 25 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 19.1 (10/17) 5 : 18.2 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.8 (10/17) 5 : 12.2
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.79 (10/17) 5 : 15.20 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 77.6 (10/17) 5 : 65.7 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 60.9 (10/17) 5 : 67.9 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2012 : 338.9 (10/17) 5 : 368.1
  • 22. PAGE 21 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/10/17 '15/10/17 '16/10/17 '17/10/17 '18/10/17 '19/10/17 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '14/10/17 '15/10/17 '16/10/17 '17/10/17 '18/10/17 '19/10/17 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/10/17 '15/10/17 '16/10/17 '17/10/17 '18/10/17 '19/10/17 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/10/17 '15/10/17 '16/10/17 '17/10/17 '18/10/17 '19/10/17 5 1 37.9% 0.6% 29.0% 0.1% 5 1 26.9% 0.8% 31.2% 0.1% 5 1 32.4% 0.7% 30.1% 0.1% 5 1 23.4% 0.0% 26.3% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR108214 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898