SlideShare a Scribd company logo
6 March
2020
PAGE 2
•
10
0.9120%
10
-0.686%
•
0.24%
494
0.41% 563.9
• 1.05%
0.57%
0.70%
0.63%
(GBI-
EM GD) 1% 10%
Bloomberg 2020/3/5
-2.03
0.21
-0.68
-1.00
-1.00
1.38
0.85
-2.23
1.92
1.99
2.45
1.98
0.62
2.93
3.33
4.60
-0.91
-0.00
0.11
0.24
0.41
0.56
0.57
0.63
0.70
0.90
0.92
1.03
1.05
1.61
1.61
2.14
-
-
ESG ( )
% %
PAGE 3
•
• Biden
S&P 500 1.52%
•
600 2.23% 225
2.82%
•
300 2.98%
•
0.91%
Bloomberg 2020/3/5
-15.17
-11.38
-6.49
-8.54
-14.01
-10.12
-16.05
-11.89
-8.34
-4.60
-1.00
2.23
-9.32
-1.36
-0.51
9.88
-4.50
-3.42
-3.21
-2.82
-2.70
-2.23
-2.16
-0.73
0.71
0.84
0.91
1.27
1.52
1.85
1.97
2.98
RTS
DAX
SENSEX
Nikkei 225
MSCI
600
MSCI
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
BAML
H
S&P 500
MSCI
300
% %
PAGE 4
• OPEC
150
Fed
• 3 4
78.4 ( )
300
Bloomberg 2020/3/5
-9.57
-9.56
-7.70
-4.23
-9.13
-0.84
-6.16
1.93
7.47
0.17
-2.05
0.26
-4.20
-2.53
-1.98
-0.46
-0.05
1.03
1.20
1.21
1.67
1.78
4.16
4.73
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 233 62
40 10
53
• 126
38 75
48
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/3/5
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
2
( 1)
( 2) ISM PMI
• 2 3 FOMC
2
1%~1.25%( 1)
2011
CME
FedWatch FED 3 2
94% FED
3
•
83
Washington Florida
California
197 12
• ISM 2
(PMI) 57.3
2014 2 PMI
50.1( 2)
PMI
Bloomberg 2020/3/5
PAGE 8
( 1)
( 2) ADP
Bloomberg 2020/3/5
•
0.24%
•
Charter Communications Science Applications
4
•
Super Tuesday Joe Biden
North Carolina Texas 10
Biden
Sanders
• ADP
2
18.3 ( 2)
PAGE 9
• Leyen
2019 GDP
Lagarde
4000
• 2
1.2%( 1) 1 1.4%
10
• 2
38.4( 2) 5
4
7
Bloomberg 2020/3/5
( 1) CPI
( 2)
PAGE 10
PMI
( 1) PMI
( 2) Markit PMI
Bloomberg 2020/3/5
• PMI 2
(PMI) 40.3( 1)
PMI 26.5
50
• 2 Markit PMI
54.5 1 8 55.3(
2)
PMI 57.5 7 PMI
57.6 8
• GDP 2019 4
GDP 1.7% 1.2%
1.6%
2019 GDP
1.1% 2018 3
•
1 2.5% 9
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/3/5
/ /
3/9 1 ( ) -4.4% -6.8%
3/9 4 GDP ( ) -6.5% -6.3%
3/10 2 NFIB 102.5 104.3
3/10 4 GDP ( ) 0.9% 0.9%
3/10 2 CPI( ) 5.1% 5.4%
3/10 2 PPI( ) -0.3% 0.1%
3/10-3/15 2 ( ) 1,727.2b 5,070.0b
3/10 2 ( ) - -35.6%
3/10 1 ( ) - -1.2%
3/11 2 CPI( ) 2.2% 2.5%
3/12 2 PPI( ) 1.8% 2.1%
3/12 ECB 0.00% 0.00%
3/12 1 ( ) 0.6% -0.3%
3/12 2 CPI( ) 6.81% 7.59%
3/12-3/15 2 ( ) - -1.7%
3/13 3 96.4 101.01
3/13 1 ( ) 0.2% 0.2%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.26 (3/5)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 128.0 (3/5) 5 : 126.0
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.83 (3/5)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 396.09 (3/5) 5 : 352.3
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.30 (3/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 563.9 (3/5) 5 : 457.9
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.91 (3/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 494.0 (3/5) 5 : 433.7
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.92 (3/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 428.0 (3/5) 5 : 375.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.89 (3/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 602.4 (3/5) 5 : 515.8
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.77 (3/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 369.28 (3/5) 5 : 345.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.51 (3/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 363.38 (3/5) 5 : 335.5
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.27 (3/5)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 741.0 (3/5) 5 : 555.6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.83 (3/5)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 294.55 (3/5) 5 : 257.1
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 16.1 (3/5) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.4 (3/5) 5 : 17.2
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.7 (3/5) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 17.7 (3/5) 5 : 17.0
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.7 (3/5) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.5 (3/5) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.1 (3/5) 5 : 18.5
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.4 (3/5) 5 : 12.4
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 39.62 (3/5) 5 : 15.17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 97.0 (3/5) 5 : 64.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 58.0 (3/5) 5 : 66.5
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 407.5 (3/5) 5 : 365.0
PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/3/5 '16/3/5 '17/3/5 '18/3/5 '19/3/5 '20/3/5
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/3/5 '16/3/5 '17/3/5 '18/3/5 '19/3/5 '20/3/5
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/3/5 '16/3/5 '17/3/5 '18/3/5 '19/3/5 '20/3/5
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/3/5 '16/3/5 '17/3/5 '18/3/5 '19/3/5 '20/3/5
5 1
33.4% 0.9%
28.7% 0.1%
5 1
31.3% 0.4%
30.9% 0.1%
5 1
32.4% 0.7%
29.8% 0.1%
5 1
30.9% 1.4%
26.0% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR109050
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20200306

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 0.9120% 10 -0.686% • 0.24% 494 0.41% 563.9 • 1.05% 0.57% 0.70% 0.63% (GBI- EM GD) 1% 10% Bloomberg 2020/3/5 -2.03 0.21 -0.68 -1.00 -1.00 1.38 0.85 -2.23 1.92 1.99 2.45 1.98 0.62 2.93 3.33 4.60 -0.91 -0.00 0.11 0.24 0.41 0.56 0.57 0.63 0.70 0.90 0.92 1.03 1.05 1.61 1.61 2.14 - - ESG ( ) % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • • Biden S&P 500 1.52% • 600 2.23% 225 2.82% • 300 2.98% • 0.91% Bloomberg 2020/3/5 -15.17 -11.38 -6.49 -8.54 -14.01 -10.12 -16.05 -11.89 -8.34 -4.60 -1.00 2.23 -9.32 -1.36 -0.51 9.88 -4.50 -3.42 -3.21 -2.82 -2.70 -2.23 -2.16 -0.73 0.71 0.84 0.91 1.27 1.52 1.85 1.97 2.98 RTS DAX SENSEX Nikkei 225 MSCI 600 MSCI BOVESPA MSCI MSCI BAML H S&P 500 MSCI 300 % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • OPEC 150 Fed • 3 4 78.4 ( ) 300 Bloomberg 2020/3/5 -9.57 -9.56 -7.70 -4.23 -9.13 -0.84 -6.16 1.93 7.47 0.17 -2.05 0.26 -4.20 -2.53 -1.98 -0.46 -0.05 1.03 1.20 1.21 1.67 1.78 4.16 4.73 CRB LME LME LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 233 62 40 10 53 • 126 38 75 48 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/3/5 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 2 ( 1) ( 2) ISM PMI • 2 3 FOMC 2 1%~1.25%( 1) 2011 CME FedWatch FED 3 2 94% FED 3 • 83 Washington Florida California 197 12 • ISM 2 (PMI) 57.3 2014 2 PMI 50.1( 2) PMI Bloomberg 2020/3/5
  • 9. PAGE 8 ( 1) ( 2) ADP Bloomberg 2020/3/5 • 0.24% • Charter Communications Science Applications 4 • Super Tuesday Joe Biden North Carolina Texas 10 Biden Sanders • ADP 2 18.3 ( 2)
  • 10. PAGE 9 • Leyen 2019 GDP Lagarde 4000 • 2 1.2%( 1) 1 1.4% 10 • 2 38.4( 2) 5 4 7 Bloomberg 2020/3/5 ( 1) CPI ( 2)
  • 11. PAGE 10 PMI ( 1) PMI ( 2) Markit PMI Bloomberg 2020/3/5 • PMI 2 (PMI) 40.3( 1) PMI 26.5 50 • 2 Markit PMI 54.5 1 8 55.3( 2) PMI 57.5 7 PMI 57.6 8 • GDP 2019 4 GDP 1.7% 1.2% 1.6% 2019 GDP 1.1% 2018 3 • 1 2.5% 9
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/3/5 / / 3/9 1 ( ) -4.4% -6.8% 3/9 4 GDP ( ) -6.5% -6.3% 3/10 2 NFIB 102.5 104.3 3/10 4 GDP ( ) 0.9% 0.9% 3/10 2 CPI( ) 5.1% 5.4% 3/10 2 PPI( ) -0.3% 0.1% 3/10-3/15 2 ( ) 1,727.2b 5,070.0b 3/10 2 ( ) - -35.6% 3/10 1 ( ) - -1.2% 3/11 2 CPI( ) 2.2% 2.5% 3/12 2 PPI( ) 1.8% 2.1% 3/12 ECB 0.00% 0.00% 3/12 1 ( ) 0.6% -0.3% 3/12 2 CPI( ) 6.81% 7.59% 3/12-3/15 2 ( ) - -1.7% 3/13 3 96.4 101.01 3/13 1 ( ) 0.2% 0.2%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE (%) (bp) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 2.26 (3/5) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 128.0 (3/5) 5 : 126.0 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.83 (3/5) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 396.09 (3/5) 5 : 352.3
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.30 (3/5) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 563.9 (3/5) 5 : 457.9 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.91 (3/5) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 494.0 (3/5) 5 : 433.7
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.92 (3/5) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 428.0 (3/5) 5 : 375.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.89 (3/5) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 602.4 (3/5) 5 : 515.8
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.77 (3/5) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 369.28 (3/5) 5 : 345.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.51 (3/5) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 363.38 (3/5) 5 : 335.5
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 8.27 (3/5) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 741.0 (3/5) 5 : 555.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.83 (3/5) 0 100 200 300 400 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 294.55 (3/5) 5 : 257.1
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 16.1 (3/5) 5 : 16.2 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 17.4 (3/5) 5 : 17.2 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 13.7 (3/5) 5 : 14.9 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 17.7 (3/5) 5 : 17.0
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.7 (3/5) 5 : 12.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.5 (3/5) 5 : 12.7 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 20.1 (3/5) 5 : 18.5 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.4 (3/5) 5 : 12.4
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 39.62 (3/5) 5 : 15.17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 97.0 (3/5) 5 : 64.7 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 58.0 (3/5) 5 : 66.5 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 407.5 (3/5) 5 : 365.0
  • 22. PAGE 21 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/3/5 '16/3/5 '17/3/5 '18/3/5 '19/3/5 '20/3/5 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '15/3/5 '16/3/5 '17/3/5 '18/3/5 '19/3/5 '20/3/5 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/3/5 '16/3/5 '17/3/5 '18/3/5 '19/3/5 '20/3/5 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/3/5 '16/3/5 '17/3/5 '18/3/5 '19/3/5 '20/3/5 5 1 33.4% 0.9% 28.7% 0.1% 5 1 31.3% 0.4% 30.9% 0.1% 5 1 32.4% 0.7% 29.8% 0.1% 5 1 30.9% 1.4% 26.0% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR109050 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898