SlideShare a Scribd company logo
22 November
2019
PAGE 2
•
10
1.7723%
10
-0.325%
•
0.25% 0.19%
482.8
•
0.46%
22.35% 0.17%
0.31%
0.50%
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
-0.56
-0.18
-0.20
0.08
-0.47
0.78
1.12
0.61
0.25
0.65
0.27
0.53
0.46
0.64
-0.51
-0.46
-0.25
-0.19
-0.15
-0.10
0.08
0.14
0.17
0.19
0.21
0.28
0.31
0.38
0.40
0.50
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
• S&P 500
S&P 500
0.22%
•
600 0.54%
• 225
0.44%
300 0.42%
•
0.04%
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
2.03
2.17
0.23
3.06
-0.06
1.84
-0.88
3.22
1.56
2.62
4.40
-1.49
3.25
1.39
3.35
6.56
-0.54
-0.44
-0.42
-0.32
-0.04
0.02
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.50
0.69
0.72
0.88
0.94
1.24
600
Nikkei 225
300
DAX
BAML
MSCI
H
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
SENSEX
BOVESPA
RTS
% %
PAGE 4
•
(OPEC)
• 11 15
138 ( ) 150
Bloomberg EIA 2019/11/21
-10.03
-7.28
-4.21
-4.84
-3.46
-1.36
0.29
-2.77
0.02
3.43
8.50
9.89
-4.39
-4.30
-3.78
-1.93
-1.72
-0.48
-0.40
0.25
0.29
0.36
2.71
3.19
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %
PAGE 5
• 15 41
8 8
26
• 70
55 3
2
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/11/20
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
•
Trump 10
•
• 10 9
0.3%( 2) -0.3%
(Fed)12
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
( 1) S&P 500
( 2)
PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
161 2017 3
Teva
Pharmaceutical Kaiser Aluminum
2 3
• Paypal 40
Honey Science Paypal
(Charles Schwab) 250
TD Ameritrade 5
• 11
16 22.7
6
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
( 1)
( 2)
PAGE 9
• 2020
1,536
• ECB
10
(CPI) 0.7%( 1)
•
38.5% 9%
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
( 2) 225
( 1) CPI ( )
PAGE 10
• 1,800
7 5 2.5%
(LPR) 1 5
5
•
2011
IPO 1,012
176
40
•
(Gotabaya)
Gotabaya
(Hambantota)
Bloomberg 2019/11/21
( 1) (LPR)
( 2)
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/11/22
/ /
11/22 GDP ( ) 0.10% 0.10%
11/22 Markit 50.9 50.7
11/22 Markit 46.4 45.9
11/22 Markit PMI ( ) 48.9 49.6
11/22 IBGE IPCA-15( ) 0.16% 0.09%
11/22 95.7 95.7
11/25 IFO 95 94.6
11/25 GDP ( ) -- -0.40%
11/26 707k 701k
11/26 126.8 125.9
11/27 99.9 99.6
11/27 MBA -- -2.20%
11/27 GDP ( ) 1.90% 1.90%
11/27 -0.50% -1.20%
11/27 -- 227k
11/28 CPI( ) 1.30% 1.10%
11/28 ( ) -4.00% 9.10%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.91 (11/21)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 109.0 (11/21) 5 : 127.6
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.11 (11/21)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 335.55 (11/21) 5 : 357.2
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.28 (11/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 482.8 (11/21) 5 : 461.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.83 (11/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 396.0 (11/21) 5 : 440.3
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.87 (11/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 374.0 (11/21) 5 : 377.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.27 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 558.8 (11/21) 5 : 516.0
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.25 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 336.67 (11/21) 5 : 348.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.07 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 334.11 (11/21) 5 : 337.8
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.40 (11/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 666.0 (11/21) 5 : 565.6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.36 (11/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 266.98 (11/21) 5 : 257.6
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.8 (11/21) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 18.0 (11/21) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 14.9 (11/21) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 17.4 (11/21) 5 : 17.1
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.8 (11/21) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.9 (11/21) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 20.4 (11/21) 5 : 18.3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (11/21) 5 : 12.2
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.13 (11/21) 5 : 15.17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 61.8 (11/21) 5 : 65.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 60.1 (11/21) 5 : 67.5
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 344.5 (11/21) 5 : 367.8
PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21
5 1
35.6% 0.0%
29.0% 0.0%
5 1
27.1% -0.1%
31.2% 0.1%
5 1
31.4% -0.1%
30.1% 0.1%
5 1
22.7% -0.1%
26.2% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR108238
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20191122

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 1.7723% 10 -0.325% • 0.25% 0.19% 482.8 • 0.46% 22.35% 0.17% 0.31% 0.50% Bloomberg 2019/11/21 -0.56 -0.18 -0.20 0.08 -0.47 0.78 1.12 0.61 0.25 0.65 0.27 0.53 0.46 0.64 -0.51 -0.46 -0.25 -0.19 -0.15 -0.10 0.08 0.14 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.28 0.31 0.38 0.40 0.50 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • S&P 500 S&P 500 0.22% • 600 0.54% • 225 0.44% 300 0.42% • 0.04% Bloomberg 2019/11/21 2.03 2.17 0.23 3.06 -0.06 1.84 -0.88 3.22 1.56 2.62 4.40 -1.49 3.25 1.39 3.35 6.56 -0.54 -0.44 -0.42 -0.32 -0.04 0.02 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.50 0.69 0.72 0.88 0.94 1.24 600 Nikkei 225 300 DAX BAML MSCI H S&P 500 MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI SENSEX BOVESPA RTS % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • (OPEC) • 11 15 138 ( ) 150 Bloomberg EIA 2019/11/21 -10.03 -7.28 -4.21 -4.84 -3.46 -1.36 0.29 -2.77 0.02 3.43 8.50 9.89 -4.39 -4.30 -3.78 -1.93 -1.72 -0.48 -0.40 0.25 0.29 0.36 2.71 3.19 LME LME LME LME CRB % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 15 41 8 8 26 • 70 55 3 2 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/11/20 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • Trump 10 • • 10 9 0.3%( 2) -0.3% (Fed)12 Bloomberg 2019/11/21 ( 1) S&P 500 ( 2)
  • 9. PAGE 8 • ( 1) • 161 2017 3 Teva Pharmaceutical Kaiser Aluminum 2 3 • Paypal 40 Honey Science Paypal (Charles Schwab) 250 TD Ameritrade 5 • 11 16 22.7 6 Bloomberg 2019/11/21 ( 1) ( 2)
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 2020 1,536 • ECB 10 (CPI) 0.7%( 1) • 38.5% 9% Bloomberg 2019/11/21 ( 2) 225 ( 1) CPI ( )
  • 11. PAGE 10 • 1,800 7 5 2.5% (LPR) 1 5 5 • 2011 IPO 1,012 176 40 • (Gotabaya) Gotabaya (Hambantota) Bloomberg 2019/11/21 ( 1) (LPR) ( 2)
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2019/11/22 / / 11/22 GDP ( ) 0.10% 0.10% 11/22 Markit 50.9 50.7 11/22 Markit 46.4 45.9 11/22 Markit PMI ( ) 48.9 49.6 11/22 IBGE IPCA-15( ) 0.16% 0.09% 11/22 95.7 95.7 11/25 IFO 95 94.6 11/25 GDP ( ) -- -0.40% 11/26 707k 701k 11/26 126.8 125.9 11/27 99.9 99.6 11/27 MBA -- -2.20% 11/27 GDP ( ) 1.90% 1.90% 11/27 -0.50% -1.20% 11/27 -- 227k 11/28 CPI( ) 1.30% 1.10% 11/28 ( ) -4.00% 9.10%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE (%) (bp) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 2.91 (11/21) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 109.0 (11/21) 5 : 127.6 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.11 (11/21) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 335.55 (11/21) 5 : 357.2
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.28 (11/21) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 482.8 (11/21) 5 : 461.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.83 (11/21) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 396.0 (11/21) 5 : 440.3
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 3.87 (11/21) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 374.0 (11/21) 5 : 377.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 7.27 (11/21) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 558.8 (11/21) 5 : 516.0
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 5.25 (11/21) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 336.67 (11/21) 5 : 348.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 5.07 (11/21) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 334.11 (11/21) 5 : 337.8
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 8.40 (11/21) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 666.0 (11/21) 5 : 565.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 4.36 (11/21) 0 100 200 300 400 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 266.98 (11/21) 5 : 257.6
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 16.8 (11/21) 5 : 16.2 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 18.0 (11/21) 5 : 17.1 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 14.9 (11/21) 5 : 14.9 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 17.4 (11/21) 5 : 17.1
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.8 (11/21) 5 : 12.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.9 (11/21) 5 : 12.7 5 10 15 20 25 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 20.4 (11/21) 5 : 18.3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.0 (11/21) 5 : 12.2
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.13 (11/21) 5 : 15.17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 : 61.8 (11/21) 5 : 65.6 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 60.1 (11/21) 5 : 67.5 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2012 : 344.5 (11/21) 5 : 367.8
  • 22. PAGE 21 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/11/21 '15/11/21 '16/11/21 '17/11/21 '18/11/21 '19/11/21 5 1 35.6% 0.0% 29.0% 0.0% 5 1 27.1% -0.1% 31.2% 0.1% 5 1 31.4% -0.1% 30.1% 0.1% 5 1 22.7% -0.1% 26.2% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR108238 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898