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07 August
2020
PAGE 2
•
10
0.5362%
10
-0.531%
•
0.7% 476
0.88% 555
•
1.6%
650
9.45%
0.47%
Bloomberg 2020/8/6
1.51
1.33
1.23
2.37
1.70
2.91
2.65
3.95
2.58
2.33
2.38
2.61
2.31
3.91
2.78
3.61
-0.47
0.05
0.15
0.43
0.54
0.58
0.70
0.70
0.71
0.75
0.76
0.84
0.85
0.88
0.90
1.60
ESG ( )
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500 3.17%
•
600
0.83%
•
225 0.35%
300
2.29%
•
0.19%
Bloomberg 2020/8/6
2.54
5.24
3.40
-1.30
4.22
-2.35
-4.89
6.58
-1.11
4.35
1.98
0.04
4.24
5.14
5.33
2.83
-2.61
-0.84
0.19
0.35
0.77
0.83
1.04
1.50
1.71
2.27
2.29
2.33
2.41
3.09
3.17
4.06
MSCI
BOVESPA
BAML
Nikkei 225
SENSEX
600
H
DAX
MSCI
300
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
S&P 500
RTS
% %
PAGE 4
•
OPEC+ 8
• 7 31 EIA
737.3 ( )
335
Bloomberg 2020/8/6
1.62
-2.64
-10.17
5.71
1.32
8.75
5.47
4.62
3.25
15.63
8.56
16.92
-5.34
-1.91
-1.43
0.75
2.53
3.34
4.08
5.01
5.09
5.46
5.48
5.49
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 74 65
10 16
27
• 170
147 31
5
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/8/6
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
• Steven
Mnuchin
2020 2030 3.4
10 1
7
1200
• (ISM)
7 PMI 54.2
2 7 (PMI)
58.1( 2)
2019 2 18
15
5
• Michael Pompeo
(Clean Network)
App Trump
45 TikTok Wechat
( 2) ISM
( 1) S&P 500
Bloomberg 2020/8/6
PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2020/8/6
( 1)
( 2) ( )
•
( 1)
•
150
Triumph
Group Apache Corp
Howard Hughes Corp
• 88%
S&P 500 2
8
Roku Beyond Meat
Uber CVS
• 8 1
119 ( 2) 20
100
PAGE 9
• 2 GDP
12.1%( 1)
15%
•
0.1% 7,450
-14% -9.5%
• 7 600
5
(Siemens) (Commerzbank)
Ahold Delhaize
BMW (Allianz)
• 6 27
3699 1.2%( 2)
16.2%
( 1) GDP( %)
( 2) ( %)
Bloomberg 2020/8/6
PAGE 10
( 1) Markit PMI
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/8/6
• 7 Markit PMI
52.8( 1) 2011
1 9
7 PMI
58.4 54.1 3
PMI 55.7 54.5
• 2020
• 4%
1
Das
•
1 2%( 2)
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/8/7
/ /
8/10 8 Sentix - -18.2
8/10 7 CPI( ) 2.4% 2.5%
8/10-8/15 7 1175.65b 1810.0b
8/11 7 NFIB 98.2 100.6
8/11 8 ZEW - 59.6
8/11 6 ¥114.66b ¥1176.8b
8/11 6 ( ) -23.1% -
8/12 7 CPI( ) 0.7% 0.6%
8/12 7 ( ) -10.3% -20.9%
8/12 7 CPI( ) 6.3% 6.1%
8/12 6 ( ) - -7.2%
8/14 8 ( ) 71.8 72.5
8/14 7 ( ) 1.9% 7.5%
8/14 2 GDP( ) -15.0% -15.0%
8/14 7 ( ) 4.7% 4.8%
8/14 7 ( ) -0.3% -1.8%
8/14 - 5.00%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1.86 (8/6)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 127 (8/6) 5 : 131
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.68 (8/6)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 427 (8/6) 5 : 358
PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.21 (8/6)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.91 (8/6)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 555 (8/6) 5 : 482
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 476 (8/6) 5 : 453
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.43 (8/6)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.23 (8/6)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 476 (8/6) 5 : 396
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 697 (8/6) 5 : 494
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.91 (8/6)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.42 (8/6)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 436 (8/6) 5 : 368
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 371 (8/6) 5 : 322
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.78 (8/6)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.64 (8/6)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 733 (8/6) 5 : 582
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 264 (8/6) 5 : 217
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.7 (8/6) 5 : 16.0
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.3 (8/6) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.0 (8/6) 5 : 14.6
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 19.9 (8/6) 5 : 16.2
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.3 (8/6) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.3 (8/6) 5 : 12.0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.6 (8/6) 5 : 17.5
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.7 (8/6) 5 : 12.2
/ /
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.65 (8/6) 5 : 17.14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 42.6 (8/6) 5 : 63.4
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.0 (8/6) 5 : 64.9
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 389 (8/6) 5 : 384
/ /
PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/8/6 '16/8/6 '17/8/6 '18/8/6 '19/8/6 '20/8/6
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/8/6 '16/8/6 '17/8/6 '18/8/6 '19/8/6 '20/8/6
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/8/6 '16/8/6 '17/8/6 '18/8/6 '19/8/6 '20/8/6
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/8/6 '16/8/6 '17/8/6 '18/8/6 '19/8/6 '20/8/6
5 1
34.0% 0.2%
28.3% 0.1%
5 1
33.8% 0.8%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
33.9% 0.5%
29.5% 0.1%
5 1
32.5% 1.5%
25.5% 0.1%
PAGE 22
TR109217
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20200807

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 0.5362% 10 -0.531% • 0.7% 476 0.88% 555 • 1.6% 650 9.45% 0.47% Bloomberg 2020/8/6 1.51 1.33 1.23 2.37 1.70 2.91 2.65 3.95 2.58 2.33 2.38 2.61 2.31 3.91 2.78 3.61 -0.47 0.05 0.15 0.43 0.54 0.58 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.75 0.76 0.84 0.85 0.88 0.90 1.60 ESG ( ) - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • • S&P 500 3.17% • 600 0.83% • 225 0.35% 300 2.29% • 0.19% Bloomberg 2020/8/6 2.54 5.24 3.40 -1.30 4.22 -2.35 -4.89 6.58 -1.11 4.35 1.98 0.04 4.24 5.14 5.33 2.83 -2.61 -0.84 0.19 0.35 0.77 0.83 1.04 1.50 1.71 2.27 2.29 2.33 2.41 3.09 3.17 4.06 MSCI BOVESPA BAML Nikkei 225 SENSEX 600 H DAX MSCI 300 MSCI MSCI MSCI S&P 500 RTS % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • OPEC+ 8 • 7 31 EIA 737.3 ( ) 335 Bloomberg 2020/8/6 1.62 -2.64 -10.17 5.71 1.32 8.75 5.47 4.62 3.25 15.63 8.56 16.92 -5.34 -1.91 -1.43 0.75 2.53 3.34 4.08 5.01 5.09 5.46 5.48 5.49 LME LME CRB LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 74 65 10 16 27 • 170 147 31 5 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/8/6 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • Steven Mnuchin 2020 2030 3.4 10 1 7 1200 • (ISM) 7 PMI 54.2 2 7 (PMI) 58.1( 2) 2019 2 18 15 5 • Michael Pompeo (Clean Network) App Trump 45 TikTok Wechat ( 2) ISM ( 1) S&P 500 Bloomberg 2020/8/6
  • 9. PAGE 8 Bloomberg 2020/8/6 ( 1) ( 2) ( ) • ( 1) • 150 Triumph Group Apache Corp Howard Hughes Corp • 88% S&P 500 2 8 Roku Beyond Meat Uber CVS • 8 1 119 ( 2) 20 100
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 2 GDP 12.1%( 1) 15% • 0.1% 7,450 -14% -9.5% • 7 600 5 (Siemens) (Commerzbank) Ahold Delhaize BMW (Allianz) • 6 27 3699 1.2%( 2) 16.2% ( 1) GDP( %) ( 2) ( %) Bloomberg 2020/8/6
  • 11. PAGE 10 ( 1) Markit PMI ( 2) Bloomberg 2020/8/6 • 7 Markit PMI 52.8( 1) 2011 1 9 7 PMI 58.4 54.1 3 PMI 55.7 54.5 • 2020 • 4% 1 Das • 1 2%( 2)
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/8/7 / / 8/10 8 Sentix - -18.2 8/10 7 CPI( ) 2.4% 2.5% 8/10-8/15 7 1175.65b 1810.0b 8/11 7 NFIB 98.2 100.6 8/11 8 ZEW - 59.6 8/11 6 ¥114.66b ¥1176.8b 8/11 6 ( ) -23.1% - 8/12 7 CPI( ) 0.7% 0.6% 8/12 7 ( ) -10.3% -20.9% 8/12 7 CPI( ) 6.3% 6.1% 8/12 6 ( ) - -7.2% 8/14 8 ( ) 71.8 72.5 8/14 7 ( ) 1.9% 7.5% 8/14 2 GDP( ) -15.0% -15.0% 8/14 7 ( ) 4.7% 4.8% 8/14 7 ( ) -0.3% -1.8% 8/14 - 5.00%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 1.86 (8/6) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 127 (8/6) 5 : 131 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.68 (8/6) / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 427 (8/6) 5 : 358
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.21 (8/6) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.91 (8/6) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 555 (8/6) 5 : 482 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 476 (8/6) 5 : 453
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.43 (8/6) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.23 (8/6) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 476 (8/6) 5 : 396 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 697 (8/6) 5 : 494
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.91 (8/6) 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.42 (8/6) / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 436 (8/6) 5 : 368 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 371 (8/6) 5 : 322
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.78 (8/6) 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.64 (8/6) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 733 (8/6) 5 : 582 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 264 (8/6) 5 : 217
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 / / 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 20.7 (8/6) 5 : 16.0 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 22.3 (8/6) 5 : 17.1 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 18.0 (8/6) 5 : 14.6 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 19.9 (8/6) 5 : 16.2
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 15.3 (8/6) 5 : 12.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 14.3 (8/6) 5 : 12.0 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 21.6 (8/6) 5 : 17.5 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 18.7 (8/6) 5 : 12.2 / /
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 22.65 (8/6) 5 : 17.14 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 42.6 (8/6) 5 : 63.4 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 55.0 (8/6) 5 : 64.9 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 389 (8/6) 5 : 384 / /
  • 22. PAGE 21 Bloomberg * 50% +50% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/8/6 '16/8/6 '17/8/6 '18/8/6 '19/8/6 '20/8/6 -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% '15/8/6 '16/8/6 '17/8/6 '18/8/6 '19/8/6 '20/8/6 -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% '15/8/6 '16/8/6 '17/8/6 '18/8/6 '19/8/6 '20/8/6 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '15/8/6 '16/8/6 '17/8/6 '18/8/6 '19/8/6 '20/8/6 5 1 34.0% 0.2% 28.3% 0.1% 5 1 33.8% 0.8% 30.7% 0.1% 5 1 33.9% 0.5% 29.5% 0.1% 5 1 32.5% 1.5% 25.5% 0.1%
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR109217 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • / • • • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898