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Bhushan Steel
1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | Steel
August 02, 2010
Bhushan Steel BUY
CMP Rs1,559
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs1,979
Particulars (Rs cr) 1QFY2011 1QFY2010 % chg (yoy) 4QFY2010 % chg (qoq) Investment Period 12 months
Net sales 1,373 1,305 5.2 1,609 (14.7)
EBITDA 408 297 37.4 419 (2.7) Stock Info
% margin 29.7 22.8 696bp 26.1 366bp Sector Steel
Net profit 206 172 19.7 241 (14.6) Market Cap (Rs cr) 6,623
Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 1.6
Muted top-line performance led by lower sales volume: For 1QFY2011, Bhushan 52 Week High / Low 1856/696
Steel (BSL) reported a 14.4% yoy (21.2% qoq) decline in sales volume to 309,333 Avg. Daily Volume 117146
tonnes, of which flat sales accounted for 215,808 tonnes and long products sales Face Value (Rs) 10
stood at 93,525 tonnes. However, on the positive side, average gross realisation BSE Sensex 18,081
increased by 23.9% yoy and 9.3% qoq to Rs47,879/tonne. Consequently, net Nifty 5,432
revenue grew by 5.2% yoy but fell by 14.7% qoq to Rs1,373cr. The 1.9mn tonne Reuters Code BSSL.BO
hot strip mill is under trial runs and BSL produced 62,789 tonnes of hot rolled
Bloomberg Code BHUS@IN
steel during the quarter. The mill is expected to be commissioned in 2QFY2011.
Solid margins in 1QFY2011: Despite muted top-line performance, EBITDA
margin expanded by 696bp yoy and 366bp qoq to 29.7% mainly on account of Shareholding Pattern (%)
lower raw-material cost. Raw-material cost as a percentage of revenue fell to Promoters 69.2
54.6% in 1QFY2011 as compared to 66.1% in 1QFY2010 and 60.8% in MF / Banks / Indian Fls 25.3
4QFY2010. Consequently, EBITDA grew by 37.4% yoy to Rs408cr but declined FII / NRIs / OCBs 1.9
2.7% qoq. EBITDA/tonne increased to US $289 from US $232 in 4QFY2010 and Indian Public / Others 3.5
US $169 in 1QFY2010. Consequently, net profit increased by 19.7% yoy to
Rs206cr but declined 14.6% sequentially.
Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of Rs1,559, the stock is trading at 7.3x Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
FY2011E and 6.0x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We expect BSL to post a 26.2% CAGR in Sensex 3,0 15.4 20.7
volumes over FY2010–15E on completion of its Phase-III expansion plan by BSL (12.7) 99.6 135.8
October 2012E along with EBITDA/tonne increasing to US $331 in FY2011E.
Moreover, with debt/equity expected to decline from 3.3x in FY2009 to 2.0x in
FY2012E, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a Target Price
of Rs1,979, valuing the stock at 6.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDA.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales 4,943 5,641 6,290 7,131
% chg 18.3 14.1 11.5 13.4
Net profit 421 829 968 1,259
% chg (0.6) 96.9 16.7 30.0
EPS (Rs) 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4
EBITDA margin (%) 20.8 25.7 37.5 41.1
P/E (x) 15.7 8.0 6.8 5.3 Paresh Jain
P/BV (x) 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.2 Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 348
RoE (%) 20.8 29.2 26.0 26.1 pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
RoCE (%) 8.7 10.0 12.6 14.0
Pooja Jain
EV/Sales (x) 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5
Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 311
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 11.5 7.3 6.0 pooja.j@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
4. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Result highlights
Muted top-line performance led by lower sales volume
BSL’s sales volume declined by 14.4% yoy and 21.2% qoq to 309,333 tonnes, of
which flat sales accounted for 215,808 tonnes and long products sales stood at
93,525 tonnes. However, on the positive side, average gross realisation increased
by 23.9% yoy and 9.3% qoq to Rs47,879/tonne. Consequently, net revenue grew
by 5.2% yoy but fell by 14.7% qoq to Rs1,373cr. The 1.9mn tonne hot strip mill is
under trial runs and BSL produced 62,789 tonnes of hot rolled steel during the
quarter. The mill is expected to be commissioned in 2QFY2011.
Exhibit 5: Net revenue grew by 5.2% yoy
2,000 60
1,609
1,600 1,429 1,373 40
1,305 1,298
1,200
(Rs cr)
20
(%)
800
0
400
0 (20)
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Net revenue (RHS) yoy change (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBITDA margin expands by 696bp yoy
Despite muted top-line performance, EBITDA margin expanded by 696bp yoy and
366bp qoq to 29.7% mainly on account of lower raw-material cost. Raw-material
cost as a percentage of revenue fell to 54.6% in 1QFY2011 as compared to
66.1% in 1QFY2010 and 60.8% in 4QFY2010. Consequently, EBITDA grew by
37.4% yoy to Rs408cr. EBITDA/tonne increased to US $289 from US $232 in
4QFY2010 and US $169 in 1QFY2010.
Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin expands by 696bp yoy Exhibit 7: EBITDA/tonne at US $289 in 1QFY2011
500 35 350
419 408
390 30 289
400 300
343
25 233 232
297 250
300 209
(US $/tonne)
20
(Rs cr)
200
(%)
169
200 15
150
10
100 100
5
0 0 50
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
0
EBITDA (RHS) EBITDA margin (LHS) 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
August 02, 2010 4
5. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Net profit came in at Rs206cr
While interest expense increased by 60.4% yoy and 43.0% qoq to Rs79cr, interest
income fell by 82.8% yoy and 88.9% qoq to Rs6cr. Consequently, net profit
increased by 19.7% yoy to Rs206cr but declined 14.6% sequentially.
Exhibit 8: Net profit grew by 19.7% yoy in 1QFY2011
300 18
241
250 227 15
206
189
200 172 12
(Rs cr)
150 9
(%)
100 6
50 3
0 0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Net profit (RHS) Net profit margin (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 02, 2010 5
6. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Investment rationale
Entering a new orbit
BSL has undertaken an expansion plan in Orissa to increase its foothold in the
industry. The project is being executed in three phases, with Phase-I already
commissioned in FY2007 and Phase-II being commissioned recently. Post the
completion of Phase-II, the company's primary steel-making capacity will increase
to 2.2mn tonnes. Moreover, with the commissioning of its new HR plant in
2QFY2011E, BSL is moving from being a steel converter to a leading primary
producer of steel, extending its presence in the steel value chain. Phase-III is
currently under execution and is expected to come on stream by 3QFY2013E. On
completion of Phase-III, BSL's primary capacity will increase to 4.7mn tonnes,
making it one of the leading steel producers.
Volume growth sweetened by increasing EBITDA/tonne
With the commissioning of BSL's Phase-III expansion plan, we expect sales volume
to grow at a 26.2% CAGR over FY2010–15E, much higher than its peers. Despite
BSL not being integrated, cost of production is expected to be low due to a) its
unique combination of BF-EAF technology to produce steel and b) lower
conversion costs. The usage of BF-EAF technology will result in lower coal costs.
Hence, we expect EBITDA to register a 42.3% CAGR over FY2010–12E through a
combination of BF-EAF technology and low conversion cost. Thus, BSL is expected
to earn EBITDA/tonne of US $331 in FY2011E and US $345 in FY2012E.
Exhibit 9: Volumes to grow at 26.2% CAGR (FY10-15E) Exhibit 10: EBITDA/tonne at US $331 in FY2011
5.0 120
400 Captive usage of HR to lower cost
4.0 Post Phase-III
90
expansion 300
(mn tonnes)
3.0
(US $/tonne)
60
(%)
2.0 200
30
1.0 100
0.0 0
FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E 0
FY06 FY09 FY12E FY15E
Sales Volume (LHS) Volume growth (RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Top supplier of niche auto-grade products
Over the years, BSL has been shifting its customer base from the trade segment to
OEMs/exports. We believe growing investments by foreign OEMs and the strategic
alliance with Sumitomo Metal will complement the company’s OEM relationships
and will likely help BSL mitigate demand risks.
August 02, 2010 6
7. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Outlook and Valuation
At the CMP of Rs1,559, the stock is trading at 7.3x FY2011E and 6.0x FY2012E
EV/EBITDA. We expect BSL to register a 26.2% CAGR in volumes over
FY2010–15E on completion of its Phase-III expansion plan by October 2012 along
with EBITDA/tonne increasing to US $331 in FY2011E. Moreover, with debt/equity
expected to decline from 3.3x in FY2009 to 2.0x in FY2012E, we maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs1,979, valuing the stock at
6.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. At our target price, the stock would trade at 1.2x EV/IC.
Exhibit 11: Key assumptions
Key assumptions FY11E FY12E
Revenue/tonne (Rs) 39,696 37,786
Sales volume (mn tonnes) 1.6 1.9
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 12: EV/EBITDA band
45,000
17x
40,000
35,000 14x
30,000
11x
25,000
(Rs cr)
20,000 8x
15,000
5x
10,000
5,000
0
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 13: P/E band
4,500
17x
4,000
3,500
3,000 12x
2,500
(Rs)
2,000
7x
1,500
1,000
500 2x
0
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
August 02, 2010 7
13. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Bhushan Steel
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
August 02, 2010 13