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1QFY2011 Result Update | Steel
                                                                                                                     August 02, 2010



 Bhushan Steel                                                                           BUY
                                                                                         CMP                             Rs1,559
 Performance Highlights                                                                  Target Price                    Rs1,979
  




 Particulars (Rs cr)     1QFY2011 1QFY2010 % chg (yoy) 4QFY2010 % chg (qoq)              Investment Period              12 months
 Net sales                    1,373         1,305           5.2      1,609     (14.7)
 EBITDA                         408           297          37.4       419       (2.7)   Stock Info
 % margin                       29.7         22.8        696bp        26.1     366bp    Sector                                   Steel
 Net profit                     206           172          19.7       241      (14.6)   Market Cap (Rs cr)                      6,623
 Source: Company, Angel Research                                                        Beta                                      1.6

 Muted top-line performance led by lower sales volume: For 1QFY2011, Bhushan            52 Week High / Low                1856/696
 Steel (BSL) reported a 14.4% yoy (21.2% qoq) decline in sales volume to 309,333        Avg. Daily Volume                      117146
 tonnes, of which flat sales accounted for 215,808 tonnes and long products sales       Face Value (Rs)                            10
 stood at 93,525 tonnes. However, on the positive side, average gross realisation       BSE Sensex                             18,081
 increased by 23.9% yoy and 9.3% qoq to Rs47,879/tonne. Consequently, net               Nifty                                   5,432
 revenue grew by 5.2% yoy but fell by 14.7% qoq to Rs1,373cr. The 1.9mn tonne           Reuters Code                          BSSL.BO
 hot strip mill is under trial runs and BSL produced 62,789 tonnes of hot rolled
                                                                                        Bloomberg Code                    BHUS@IN
 steel during the quarter. The mill is expected to be commissioned in 2QFY2011.
 Solid margins in 1QFY2011: Despite muted top-line performance, EBITDA
 margin expanded by 696bp yoy and 366bp qoq to 29.7% mainly on account of               Shareholding Pattern (%)
 lower raw-material cost. Raw-material cost as a percentage of revenue fell to          Promoters                               69.2
 54.6% in 1QFY2011 as compared to 66.1% in 1QFY2010 and 60.8% in                        MF / Banks / Indian Fls                 25.3
 4QFY2010. Consequently, EBITDA grew by 37.4% yoy to Rs408cr but declined               FII / NRIs / OCBs                        1.9
 2.7% qoq. EBITDA/tonne increased to US $289 from US $232 in 4QFY2010 and               Indian Public / Others                   3.5
 US $169 in 1QFY2010. Consequently, net profit increased by 19.7% yoy to
 Rs206cr but declined 14.6% sequentially.
 Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of Rs1,559, the stock is trading at 7.3x             Abs. (%)                 3m      1yr      3yr
 FY2011E and 6.0x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We expect BSL to post a 26.2% CAGR in              Sensex                   3,0   15.4     20.7
 volumes over FY2010–15E on completion of its Phase-III expansion plan by               BSL                  (12.7)    99.6 135.8
 October 2012E along with EBITDA/tonne increasing to US $331 in FY2011E.
 Moreover, with debt/equity expected to decline from 3.3x in FY2009 to 2.0x in
 FY2012E, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a Target Price
 of Rs1,979, valuing the stock at 6.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDA.

 Key Financials
     Y/E March (Rs cr)                   FY2009      FY2010E      FY2011E    FY2012E
     Net sales                             4,943        5,641       6,290      7,131
     % chg                                  18.3         14.1        11.5       13.4
     Net profit                              421          829        968       1,259
     % chg                                  (0.6)        96.9        16.7       30.0
     EPS (Rs)                               99.2        195.3       228.0      296.4
     EBITDA margin (%)                      20.8         25.7        37.5       41.1
     P/E (x)                                15.7           8.0        6.8        5.3    Paresh Jain
     P/BV (x)                                2.7           2.0        1.6        1.2    Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 348
     RoE (%)                                20.8         29.2        26.0       26.1    pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com

     RoCE (%)                                8.7         10.0        12.6       14.0
                                                                                        Pooja Jain
     EV/Sales (x)                            2.9           3.0        2.7        2.5
                                                                                        Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 311
     EV/EBITDA (x)                          14.2         11.5         7.3        6.0    pooja.j@angeltrade.com
 Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                                     1
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance
                  Y/E March (Rs cr)             1QFY11 1QFY10            yoy %        FY10      FY09        yoy %
                  Net sales                      1,373         1,305       5.2        5,641     4,943        14.1
                  Raw material                      750          862    (13.0)        3,538     3,352         5.5
                  % of net sales                    54.6        66.1                   62.7      67.8
                  Staff cost                          25          18      38.4          84       101        (16.9)
                  % of net sales                     1.8         1.4                    1.5       2.0
                  Other expenditure                 190          128      48.8         570       475         20.0
                  % of net sales                    13.8         9.8                   10.1       9.6
                  Total expenditure                 965        1,008      (4.3)       4,192     3,928         6.7
                  % of net sales                    70.3        77.2                   74.3      79.5
                  Operating profit                  408          297      37.4        1,449     1,015        42.8
                  OPM (%)                           29.7        22.8                   25.7      20.5
                  Other operating income               -           -          -           -       14             -
                  EBITDA                            408          297      37.4        1,449     1,029        40.8
                  EBITDA margin (%)                 29.7        22.8                   25.7      20.8
                  Interest                            79          49      60.4         217       252        (14.1)
                  Depreciation                        53          54      (1.5)        220       234         (6.2)
                  Other income                         6          33    (82.8)         116        18        539.8
                  Exceptional items                    -           -                      -         -
                  PBT                               281          226      24.3        1,128      561        101.2
                  % of net sales                    20.5        17.3                   20.0      11.3
                  Tax                                 76          54      38.7         299       139        114.3
                  % of PBT                          26.9        24.1                   26.5      24.9
                  PAT                               206          172      19.7         829       421         96.9
                  % of net sales                    15.0        13.2                   14.7       8.5
                  EPS (Rs)                          48.4        40.5      19.7        195.3      99.2        96.9
                  Source: Company, Angel Research



                  Exhibit 2: Quarterly production trend
                  (tonnes)            1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10              4QFY10        1QFY11     yoy % qoq %
                  Flat products       439,000 411,325 455,901           503,085       461,859      5.2       (8.2)
                  Cold rolled steel 281,490 264,388 298,835             318,725       257,213     (8.6) (19.3)
                  Galvanized steel 130,122 119,753 127,060              154,214       114,033 (12.4) (26.1)
                  H&T                   1,934       2,440       2,581     2,641         2,609     34.9       (1.2)
                  HTSS                  1,307       1,417       2,466     2,346         2,275     74.1       (3.0)
                  Colour coating       24,147    23,327        24,959    25,159        22,940     (5.0)      (8.8)
                  Hot rolled steel          -              -        -             -    62,789           -        -
                  Long products       219,935 172,689 227,613           220,533       211,426     (3.9)      (4.1)
                  Billets              79,954    60,007        86,788    72,335        67,131 (16.0)         (7.2)
                  Sponge iron         103,259    78,258 105,009         114,094       114,484     10.9        0.3
                  Wire rods            12,853       9,643       7,353     4,152         4,954 (61.5)         19.3
                  Tube & shutters      23,583    24,554        28,254    29,711        24,588      4.3 (17.2)
                  Formed sections        286         227         209        241           269     (5.9)      11.6
                  Total production 658,935 584,014 683,514              723,618       673,285      2.2       (7.0)
                  Source: Company, Angel Research




August 02, 2010                                                                                                  2
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Exhibit 3: Quarterly sales volume trend
                  (tonnes)            1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11                        yoy %      qoq %
                  Flat products       250,665 246,042 256,931 292,549 215,808                   (13.9)     (26.2)
                  Cold rolled steel   118,914 116,095 129,917 135,683 104,019                   (12.5)     (23.3)
                  Galvanized steel    105,188 103,475          99,145 127,129        86,923     (17.4)     (31.6)
                  H&T                      2,007     2,422      2,531      2,767      2,430      21.1      (12.2)
                  HTSS                     1,477     1,261      2,246      2,139      1,373      (7.0)     (35.8)
                  Colour coating       23,079       22,789     23,092     24,832     21,037      (8.8)     (15.3)
                  Hot rolled steel             -           -          -          -         26          -           -
                  Long products       110,544       93,488 102,443 100,230           93,525     (15.4)         (6.7)
                  Billets              70,369       57,968     68,333     66,821     65,624      (6.7)         (1.8)
                  Sponge iron              4,206     1,467            8          0          0 (100.0) (100.0)
                  Wire rods            12,405        9,688      7,367      3,449      4,963     (60.0)         43.9
                  Tube & shutters      23,303       24,132     26,515     29,708     22,670      (2.7)     (23.7)
                  Formed sections           261          233        220        251        268        2.7        6.8
                  Total sales volume 361,209 339,530 359,374 392,779 309,333                    (14.4)     (21.2)
                  Source: Company, Angel Research




                  Exhibit 4: Quarterly realisation trend (gross)
                  (Rs/tonne)                 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 yoy % qoq %
                  Flat products               41,486      43,074     44,280     45,124    50,916      22.7      12.8
                  Cold Rolled Steel           39,011      40,777     42,258     41,647    47,386      21.5      13.8
                  Galvanized Steel            41,792      43,469     43,956     46,324    51,632      23.5      11.5
                  H&T                         79,223      78,035     81,391     80,737    88,889      12.2      10.1
                  HTSS                        48,070      43,616     53,428     52,875    57,538      19.7        8.8
                  Colour Coating              49,136      49,234     52,096     53,348    60,608      23.3      13.6
                  Hot rolled steel                   -          -          -          -   38,462           -           -
                  Long products               28,975      30,464     31,334     33,984    36,300      25.3        6.8
                  Billets                     25,750      26,170     26,664     28,654    30,781      19.5        7.4
                  Sponge Iron                 14,265      11,588           -          -          -         -           -
                  Wire Rods                   28,617      26,528     26,198     31,542    31,030       8.4      (1.6)
                  Tube & Shutters             41,411      43,386     44,692     46,139    53,242      28.6      15.4
                  Formed Sections             42,146      42,918     45,455     47,809    52,239      23.9        9.3
                  Avg. gross realisation      38,634      40,453     42,162     43,786    47,879      23.9        9.3
                  Source: Company, Angel Research




August 02, 2010                                                                                                  3
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update



                                                                Result highlights

                                                                Muted top-line performance led by lower sales volume

                                                                BSL’s sales volume declined by 14.4% yoy and 21.2% qoq to 309,333 tonnes, of
                                                                which flat sales accounted for 215,808 tonnes and long products sales stood at
                                                                93,525 tonnes. However, on the positive side, average gross realisation increased
                                                                by 23.9% yoy and 9.3% qoq to Rs47,879/tonne. Consequently, net revenue grew
                                                                by 5.2% yoy but fell by 14.7% qoq to Rs1,373cr. The 1.9mn tonne hot strip mill is
                                                                under trial runs and BSL produced 62,789 tonnes of hot rolled steel during the
                                                                quarter. The mill is expected to be commissioned in 2QFY2011.

                                                                Exhibit 5: Net revenue grew by 5.2% yoy

                                                                            2,000                                                                                                60

                                                                                                                                                 1,609
                                                                            1,600                                                     1,429                       1,373          40
                                                                                               1,305                   1,298

                                                                            1,200
                                                                  (Rs cr)




                                                                                                                                                                                 20




                                                                                                                                                                                      (%)
                                                                             800

                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                                                             400


                                                                                0                                                                                             (20)
                                                                                           1QFY10                      2QFY10         3QFY10    4QFY10        1QFY11


                                                                                                                  Net revenue (RHS)            yoy change (LHS)


                                                                 Source: Company, Angel Research

                                                                EBITDA margin expands by 696bp yoy

                                                                Despite muted top-line performance, EBITDA margin expanded by 696bp yoy and
                                                                366bp qoq to 29.7% mainly on account of lower raw-material cost. Raw-material
                                                                cost as a percentage of revenue fell to 54.6% in 1QFY2011 as compared to
                                                                66.1% in 1QFY2010 and 60.8% in 4QFY2010. Consequently, EBITDA grew by
                                                                37.4% yoy to Rs408cr. EBITDA/tonne increased to US $289 from US $232 in
                                                                4QFY2010 and US $169 in 1QFY2010.


Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin expands by 696bp yoy                                                     Exhibit 7: EBITDA/tonne at US $289 in 1QFY2011
           500                                                                      35                           350
                                                       419            408
                                          390                                       30                                                                                     289
           400                                                                                                   300
                               343
                                                                                    25                                                          233         232
                  297                                                                                            250
           300                                                                                                                         209
                                                                                                  (US $/tonne)




                                                                                    20
 (Rs cr)




                                                                                                                 200
                                                                                         (%)




                                                                                                                          169
           200                                                                      15
                                                                                                                 150
                                                                                    10
           100                                                                                                   100
                                                                                    5
            0                                                                       0                             50
                 1QFY10      2QFY10      3QFY10       4QFY10     1QFY11
                                                                                                                  0

                          EBITDA (RHS)            EBITDA margin (LHS)                                                    1QFY10       2QFY10   3QFY10     4QFY10          1QFY11


Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                   Source: Company, Angel Research




August 02, 2010                                                                                                                                                                       4
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update



                  Net profit came in at Rs206cr

                  While interest expense increased by 60.4% yoy and 43.0% qoq to Rs79cr, interest
                  income fell by 82.8% yoy and 88.9% qoq to Rs6cr. Consequently, net profit
                  increased by 19.7% yoy to Rs206cr but declined 14.6% sequentially.


                  Exhibit 8: Net profit grew by 19.7% yoy in 1QFY2011

                               300                                                                    18

                                                                                 241
                               250                                227                                 15
                                                                                               206
                                                     189
                               200    172                                                             12
                     (Rs cr)


                               150                                                                    9




                                                                                                           (%)
                               100                                                                    6

                                50                                                                    3

                                 0                                                                    0
                                     1QFY10        2QFY10        3QFY10        4QFY10        1QFY11


                                              Net profit (RHS)            Net profit margin (LHS)


                  Source: Company, Angel Research




August 02, 2010                                                                                                  5
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update




                                                                        Investment rationale

                                                                        Entering a new orbit
                                                                        BSL has undertaken an expansion plan in Orissa to increase its foothold in the
                                                                        industry. The project is being executed in three phases, with Phase-I already
                                                                        commissioned in FY2007 and Phase-II being commissioned recently. Post the
                                                                        completion of Phase-II, the company's primary steel-making capacity will increase
                                                                        to 2.2mn tonnes. Moreover, with the commissioning of its new HR plant in
                                                                        2QFY2011E, BSL is moving from being a steel converter to a leading primary
                                                                        producer of steel, extending its presence in the steel value chain. Phase-III is
                                                                        currently under execution and is expected to come on stream by 3QFY2013E. On
                                                                        completion of Phase-III, BSL's primary capacity will increase to 4.7mn tonnes,
                                                                        making it one of the leading steel producers.

                                                                        Volume growth sweetened by increasing EBITDA/tonne
                                                                        With the commissioning of BSL's Phase-III expansion plan, we expect sales volume
                                                                        to grow at a 26.2% CAGR over FY2010–15E, much higher than its peers. Despite
                                                                        BSL not being integrated, cost of production is expected to be low due to a) its
                                                                        unique combination of BF-EAF technology to produce steel and b) lower
                                                                        conversion costs. The usage of BF-EAF technology will result in lower coal costs.
                                                                        Hence, we expect EBITDA to register a 42.3% CAGR over FY2010–12E through a
                                                                        combination of BF-EAF technology and low conversion cost. Thus, BSL is expected
                                                                        to earn EBITDA/tonne of US $331 in FY2011E and US $345 in FY2012E.

Exhibit 9: Volumes to grow at 26.2% CAGR (FY10-15E)                                            Exhibit 10: EBITDA/tonne at US $331 in FY2011
               5.0                                                                 120
                                                                                                               400                           Captive usage of HR to lower cost

               4.0                       Post Phase-III
                                                                                   90
                                          expansion                                                            300
 (mn tonnes)




               3.0
                                                                                                (US $/tonne)




                                                                                   60
                                                                                         (%)




               2.0                                                                                             200

                                                                                   30
               1.0                                                                                             100

               0.0                                                                 0
                     FY10     FY11E      FY12E      FY13E       FY14E      FY15E                                0
                                                                                                                     FY06          FY09          FY12E                 FY15E
                            Sales Volume (LHS)            Volume growth (RHS)


Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                Source: Company, Angel Research



                                                                        Top supplier of niche auto-grade products
                                                                        Over the years, BSL has been shifting its customer base from the trade segment to
                                                                        OEMs/exports. We believe growing investments by foreign OEMs and the strategic
                                                                        alliance with Sumitomo Metal will complement the company’s OEM relationships
                                                                        and will likely help BSL mitigate demand risks.




August 02, 2010                                                                                                                                                                  6
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Outlook and Valuation

                  At the CMP of Rs1,559, the stock is trading at 7.3x FY2011E and 6.0x FY2012E
                  EV/EBITDA. We expect BSL to register a 26.2% CAGR in volumes over
                  FY2010–15E on completion of its Phase-III expansion plan by October 2012 along
                  with EBITDA/tonne increasing to US $331 in FY2011E. Moreover, with debt/equity
                  expected to decline from 3.3x in FY2009 to 2.0x in FY2012E, we maintain our Buy
                  recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs1,979, valuing the stock at
                  6.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. At our target price, the stock would trade at 1.2x EV/IC.

                  Exhibit 11: Key assumptions
                  Key assumptions                                          FY11E               FY12E
                  Revenue/tonne (Rs)                                      39,696               37,786
                  Sales volume (mn tonnes)                                      1.6                  1.9
                  Source: Angel Research




                  Exhibit 12: EV/EBITDA band

                            45,000
                                                                                                 17x
                            40,000
                            35,000                                                              14x
                            30,000
                                                                                                11x
                            25,000
                  (Rs cr)




                            20,000                                                               8x

                            15,000
                                                                                                 5x
                            10,000
                             5,000
                                0
                                 Apr-06     Apr-07       Apr-08        Apr-09         Apr-10



                  Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research




                  Exhibit 13: P/E band

                            4,500
                                                                                                17x
                            4,000
                            3,500
                            3,000                                                               12x
                            2,500
                   (Rs)




                            2,000
                                                                                                7x
                            1,500
                            1,000
                              500                                                               2x

                                0
                                 Apr-06    Apr-07        Apr-08       Apr-09          Apr-10



                  Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research




August 02, 2010                                                                                        7
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update




                                                     Exhibit 14: P/BV band

                                                              4,000
                                                              3,500                                                                                          3.5x

                                                              3,000
                                                              2,500                                                                                          2.5x




                                                       (Rs)
                                                              2,000
                                                              1,500                                                                                          1.5x

                                                              1,000
                                                               500                                                                                           0.5x

                                                                 0
                                                                  Apr-06                Apr-07                Apr-08           Apr-09             Apr-10


                                                      Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research



Exhibit 15: Recommendation summary
                          Target                                Upside
 Companies      CMP                     Reco.      Mcap                       P/E (x)              P/BV (x)         EV/EBITDA (x)       RoE (%)        RoCE (%)
                           Price                                 (%)
                  (Rs)     (Rs)                    (Rs cr)                 FY11E   FY12E         FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
 SAIL              203            -      Neutral    83,971            -     13.4        11.8       2.2        1.9      8.8    7.6   17.9     17.6     16.3      16.9
 Tata Steel        537      697             Buy     48,516        29.8       9.0         9.6       1.5        1.3      6.8    6.2   17.9     14.7     11.8      11.7
 JSW Steel      1,117     1,344             Buy     29,038        20.4      14.9        11.4       1.5        1.3      7.0    5.5   13.9     12.4     12.5      12.6
 Bhushan
                1,559     1,979             Buy      6,623        26.9       6.8         5.3       1.6        1.2      7.3    6.0   26.0     26.1     12.6      14.0
 Steel
 Electrosteel        49       72            Buy      1,593        47.5       7.5         7.3       0.9        0.8      5.7    5.0   14.2     13.1     11.9      12.3
 Godawari
                   250      322             Buy        673        28.9       4.7         3.5       1.0        0.8      3.5    2.3   26.1     26.7     21.2      23.5
 Power
 Sarda Energy      260      290       Accumulate       874        11.6       7.4         5.9       1.3        1.1      5.4    4.0   19.4     20.2     15.1      16.5
 Prakash Ind.      175      232             Buy      2,353        32.9       7.9         5.3       1.2        1.0      5.5    4.2   19.7     23.2     16.6      18.7
 Monnet Ispat      450      534             Buy      2,699        18.8      10.0         6.9       1.3        1.1      9.1    7.4   14.8     17.6     11.7      12.7

 Source: Company, Angel Research




August 02, 2010                                                                                                                                                     8
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Profit & Loss Statement
                  Y/E March (Rs cr)          FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
                  Gross sales                 4,179   4,645   5,395    6,004   6,800   7,709
                  Less: Excise duty           (364)   (467)   (452)    (363)   (510)   (578)
                  Net sales                   3,815   4,177   4,943    5,641   6,290   7,131
                  Other operating income        23      28       14       0      40      50
                  Total operating income      3,838   4,205   4,957    5,641   6,330   7,181
                  % chg                        37.4     9.6    17.9     13.8    12.2    13.5
                  Total expenditure           3,210   3,370   3,928    4,192   3,973   4,248
                  Net raw materials           2,843   2,973   3,352    3,538   3,212   3,314
                  Other mfg costs              316     323     475      570     650     793
                  Personnel                     51      74     101       84     111     142
                  Other                           -       -        -       -       -       -
                  EBITDA                       628     835    1,029    1,449   2,357   2,933
                  % chg                        58.6    33.0    23.2     40.8    62.7    24.4
                  (% of Net sales)             16.5    20.0    20.8     25.7    37.5    41.1
                  Depreciation                 209     211     234      220     495     605
                  EBIT                         419     624     795     1,229   1,862   2,327
                  % chg                        82.0    48.8    27.4     54.7    51.5    25.0
                  (% of Net sales)             11.0    14.9    16.1     21.8    29.6    32.6
                  Interest charges              77     137     252      217     557     647
                  Other income                  30      52       18     116      21      44
                  (% of PBT)                    8.2     9.6     3.2     10.2     1.6     2.5
                  Share in profit of asso.        -       -        -       -       -       -
                  Recurring PBT                372     539     561     1,128   1,326   1,725
                  % chg                       133.2    44.7     4.1    101.2    17.5    30.0
                  Extra. Inc/(Expense)            -       -        -       -       -       -
                  PBT (reported)               372     539     561     1,128   1,326   1,725
                  Tax                           59     115     139      299     358     466
                  (% of PBT)                   15.9    21.4    24.9     26.5    27.0    27.0
                  PAT (reported)               313     424     421      829     968    1,259
                  Add: Earnings of asso.          -       -        -       -       -       -
                  Less: Minority interest         -       -        -       -       -       -
                  Extra. Expense/(Inc.)           -       -        -       -       -       -
                  PAT after MI (reported)      313     424     421      829     968    1,259
                  ADJ. PAT                     313     424     421      829     968    1,259
                  % chg                       102.8    35.3    (0.6)    96.9    16.7    30.0
                  (% of Net sales)              8.2    10.1     8.5     14.7    15.4    17.7
                  Basic EPS (Rs)               75.0    99.8    99.2    195.3   228.0   296.4
                  Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)       74.4    99.8    99.2    195.3   228.0   296.4
                  % chg                        97.2    34.0    (0.6)    96.9    16.7    30.0




August 02, 2010                                                                            9
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Balance Sheet
                  Y/E March (Rs cr)        FY2007   FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E      FY2011E   FY2012E
                  SOURCES OF FUNDS
                  Equity share capital        42       42       42       42        42        42
                  Reserves & surplus        1,172    1,583    1,992    2,809     3,764     5,011
                  Shareholders’ funds       1,215    1,625    2,034    2,851     3,807     5,054
                  Share warrants                -        -     400      400       400       400
                  Minority interest             -        -        -        -         -         -
                  Total loans               3,242    5,718    8,066   10,366    11,346    11,826
                  Deferred tax liability     124      197      246      246       246       246
                  Total liabilities         4,580    7,540   10,747   13,864    15,800    17,526
                  APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                  Gross block               2,694    2,927    3,282    8,482    10,482    11,582
                  Less: Acc.
                                             970     1,168    1,396    1,616     2,110     2,716
                  depreciation
                  Net Block                 1,723    1,759    1,886    6,866     8,372     8,866
                  Capital work-in-
                                            1,892    4,568    7,400    5,800     6,300     7,700
                  progress
                  Goodwill                      -        -        -        -         -         -
                  Investments                 21       58      114      114       114       114
                  Current assets            1,763    2,418    2,744    3,026     3,464     3,824
                  Cash                       100       28      124      301       689       898
                  Loans & advances           367      644      769      769       769       769
                  Other                     1,295    1,747    1,850    1,956     2,006     2,157
                  Current liabilities        819     1,264    1,396    1,943     2,450     2,978
                  Net current assets         944     1,155    1,347    1,084     1,014      846
                  Mis. exp. not written
                                                -        -        -        -         -         -
                  off
                  Total assets              4,580    7,540   10,747   13,864    15,800    17,526




August 02, 2010                                                                              10
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Cash flow statement
                  Y/E March (Rs cr)       FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E            FY2011E FY2012E
                  Profit before tax          372       539       561     1,128      1,326     1,725
                  Depreciation               209       211       234       220        495       605
                  Change in working
                                           (230)     (372)     (468)       441        458       376
                  capital
                  Less: Other income        42.9     123.9     255.9       0.0           -         -
                  Direct taxes paid           41        63        46       299        358       466
                  Cash flow from
                                             353       439       537     1,490      1,920     2,241
                  operations
                  (Inc.)/ Dec. in fixed
                                          (1,323)   (2,415)   (1,770)   (3,600)    (2,500)   (2,500)
                  assets
                  (Inc.)/ Dec. in
                                              (1)      (36)      (49)         -          -         -
                  investments
                  (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans
                                                -         -         -         -          -         -
                  and advances
                  Other income                26        17        13          -          -         -
                  Cash flow from
                                          (1,298)   (2,434)   (1,806)   (3,600)    (2,500)   (2,500)
                  investing
                  Issue of equity             20          -      400          -          -         -
                  Inc./(Dec.) in loans     1,206     2,430     1,956     2,300        980       480
                  Dividend paid               12        11         8        12         12        12
                  Others                     251       495       982          -          -         -
                  Cash flow from
                                             964     1,923     1,366     2,287        968       468
                  financing
                  Inc./(Dec.) in cash         19       (73)       97       177        388       208
                  Opening cash bal.           82       100        28       124        301       689
                  Closing cash bal.          100        28       124       301        689       898




August 02, 2010                                                                                  11
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Key ratios
                  Y/E March                 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E     FY2011E   FY2012E
                  Valuation ratio (x)
                  P/E (on FDEPS)              21.1    15.6    15.7     8.0       6.8       5.3
                  P/CEPS                      12.7    10.4    10.1     6.3       4.5       3.6
                  P/BV                         5.5     4.1     2.7     2.0       1.6       1.2
                  Dividend yield (%)           0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2       0.2       0.2
                  EV/Sales                     2.6     2.9     2.9     3.0       2.7       2.5
                  EV/EBITDA                   15.5    14.7    14.2    11.5       7.3       6.0
                  EV/Total assets              2.1     1.6     1.4     1.2       1.1       1.0
                  Per share data (Rs)
                  EPS (Basic)                 75.0    99.8    99.2   195.3     228.0     296.4
                  EPS (fully diluted)         73.8    99.8    99.2   195.3     228.0     296.4
                  Cash EPS                   122.9   149.5   154.4   247.0     344.4     439.0
                  DPS                          2.5     2.5     2.5     2.5       2.5       2.5
                  Book value                 286.0   382.7   573.2   765.6     990.6   1,284.2
                  DuPont analysis
                  EBIT margin                 11.0    14.9    16.1    21.8      29.6      32.6
                  Tax retention ratio (%)     84.1    78.6    75.1    73.5      73.0      73.0
                  Asset turnover (x)           1.0     0.7     0.5     0.5       0.4       0.5
                  RoIC (Post-tax)              9.6     8.2     6.6     7.5       9.5      10.8
                  Cost of debt (post tax)      2.5     2.4     2.7     2.2       3.7       4.1
                  Leverage (x)                 2.6     3.5     3.3     3.1       2.5       2.0
                  Operating RoE               28.0    28.7    19.2    23.7      24.2      24.2
                  Returns (%)
                  RoCE (Pre-tax)              11.1    10.3     8.7    10.0      12.6      14.0
                  Angel RoIC (pre-tax)        19.9    22.6    25.8    22.4      22.5      26.2
                  RoE                         29.7    29.8    20.8    29.2      26.0      26.1
                  Turnover ratios (x)
                  Asset turnover (gross
                                               1.7     1.5     1.6     1.0       0.7       0.7
                  block)
                  Inventory (days)             97     139     134     130       130       130
                  Receivables (days)           52      54      46      45        50        50
                  Payables (days)              79     114      80      90       100       100
                  WC cycle (days)              48      57      62      67        64        61
                  Solvency ratios (x)
                  Net debt to equity           2.6     3.5     3.3     3.1       2.5       2.0
                  Net debt to EBITDA           5.0     6.8     7.7     6.9       4.5       3.7
                  Interest coverage            5.4     4.6     3.2     5.7       3.3       3.6




August 02, 2010                                                                            12
Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update




  Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800               E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                   Website: www.angeltrade.com

 DISCLAIMER

 This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
 decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
 such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
 referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
 risks of such an investment.

 Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
 investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
 document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

 Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
 trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
 fundamentals.

 The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
 sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
 document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
 responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
 Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
 nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
 Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
 compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
 This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
 redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

 Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
 other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
 the past.

 Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
 connection with the use of this information.

 Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
 refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
 its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                             Bhushan Steel
 1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                 No
 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                           No
 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock                No
 4. Broking relationship with company covered                                      No

 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.



 Ratings (Returns) :             Buy (> 15%)                      Accumulate (5% to 15%)                 Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                 Reduce (-5% to 15%)              Sell (< -15%)


August 02, 2010                                                                                                                           13

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Bhushan Steel

  • 1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | Steel August 02, 2010 Bhushan Steel BUY CMP Rs1,559 Performance Highlights Target Price Rs1,979   Particulars (Rs cr) 1QFY2011 1QFY2010 % chg (yoy) 4QFY2010 % chg (qoq) Investment Period 12 months Net sales 1,373 1,305 5.2 1,609 (14.7) EBITDA 408 297 37.4 419 (2.7) Stock Info % margin 29.7 22.8 696bp 26.1 366bp Sector Steel Net profit 206 172 19.7 241 (14.6) Market Cap (Rs cr) 6,623 Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 1.6 Muted top-line performance led by lower sales volume: For 1QFY2011, Bhushan 52 Week High / Low 1856/696 Steel (BSL) reported a 14.4% yoy (21.2% qoq) decline in sales volume to 309,333 Avg. Daily Volume 117146 tonnes, of which flat sales accounted for 215,808 tonnes and long products sales Face Value (Rs) 10 stood at 93,525 tonnes. However, on the positive side, average gross realisation BSE Sensex 18,081 increased by 23.9% yoy and 9.3% qoq to Rs47,879/tonne. Consequently, net Nifty 5,432 revenue grew by 5.2% yoy but fell by 14.7% qoq to Rs1,373cr. The 1.9mn tonne Reuters Code BSSL.BO hot strip mill is under trial runs and BSL produced 62,789 tonnes of hot rolled Bloomberg Code BHUS@IN steel during the quarter. The mill is expected to be commissioned in 2QFY2011. Solid margins in 1QFY2011: Despite muted top-line performance, EBITDA margin expanded by 696bp yoy and 366bp qoq to 29.7% mainly on account of Shareholding Pattern (%) lower raw-material cost. Raw-material cost as a percentage of revenue fell to Promoters 69.2 54.6% in 1QFY2011 as compared to 66.1% in 1QFY2010 and 60.8% in MF / Banks / Indian Fls 25.3 4QFY2010. Consequently, EBITDA grew by 37.4% yoy to Rs408cr but declined FII / NRIs / OCBs 1.9 2.7% qoq. EBITDA/tonne increased to US $289 from US $232 in 4QFY2010 and Indian Public / Others 3.5 US $169 in 1QFY2010. Consequently, net profit increased by 19.7% yoy to Rs206cr but declined 14.6% sequentially. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of Rs1,559, the stock is trading at 7.3x Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr FY2011E and 6.0x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We expect BSL to post a 26.2% CAGR in Sensex 3,0 15.4 20.7 volumes over FY2010–15E on completion of its Phase-III expansion plan by BSL (12.7) 99.6 135.8 October 2012E along with EBITDA/tonne increasing to US $331 in FY2011E. Moreover, with debt/equity expected to decline from 3.3x in FY2009 to 2.0x in FY2012E, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs1,979, valuing the stock at 6.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. Key Financials Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net sales 4,943 5,641 6,290 7,131 % chg 18.3 14.1 11.5 13.4 Net profit 421 829 968 1,259 % chg (0.6) 96.9 16.7 30.0 EPS (Rs) 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4 EBITDA margin (%) 20.8 25.7 37.5 41.1 P/E (x) 15.7 8.0 6.8 5.3 Paresh Jain P/BV (x) 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.2 Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 348 RoE (%) 20.8 29.2 26.0 26.1 pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com RoCE (%) 8.7 10.0 12.6 14.0 Pooja Jain EV/Sales (x) 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5 Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 311 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 11.5 7.3 6.0 pooja.j@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
  • 2. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 yoy % FY10 FY09 yoy % Net sales 1,373 1,305 5.2 5,641 4,943 14.1 Raw material 750 862 (13.0) 3,538 3,352 5.5 % of net sales 54.6 66.1 62.7 67.8 Staff cost 25 18 38.4 84 101 (16.9) % of net sales 1.8 1.4 1.5 2.0 Other expenditure 190 128 48.8 570 475 20.0 % of net sales 13.8 9.8 10.1 9.6 Total expenditure 965 1,008 (4.3) 4,192 3,928 6.7 % of net sales 70.3 77.2 74.3 79.5 Operating profit 408 297 37.4 1,449 1,015 42.8 OPM (%) 29.7 22.8 25.7 20.5 Other operating income - - - - 14 - EBITDA 408 297 37.4 1,449 1,029 40.8 EBITDA margin (%) 29.7 22.8 25.7 20.8 Interest 79 49 60.4 217 252 (14.1) Depreciation 53 54 (1.5) 220 234 (6.2) Other income 6 33 (82.8) 116 18 539.8 Exceptional items - - - - PBT 281 226 24.3 1,128 561 101.2 % of net sales 20.5 17.3 20.0 11.3 Tax 76 54 38.7 299 139 114.3 % of PBT 26.9 24.1 26.5 24.9 PAT 206 172 19.7 829 421 96.9 % of net sales 15.0 13.2 14.7 8.5 EPS (Rs) 48.4 40.5 19.7 195.3 99.2 96.9 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 2: Quarterly production trend (tonnes) 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 yoy % qoq % Flat products 439,000 411,325 455,901 503,085 461,859 5.2 (8.2) Cold rolled steel 281,490 264,388 298,835 318,725 257,213 (8.6) (19.3) Galvanized steel 130,122 119,753 127,060 154,214 114,033 (12.4) (26.1) H&T 1,934 2,440 2,581 2,641 2,609 34.9 (1.2) HTSS 1,307 1,417 2,466 2,346 2,275 74.1 (3.0) Colour coating 24,147 23,327 24,959 25,159 22,940 (5.0) (8.8) Hot rolled steel - - - - 62,789 - - Long products 219,935 172,689 227,613 220,533 211,426 (3.9) (4.1) Billets 79,954 60,007 86,788 72,335 67,131 (16.0) (7.2) Sponge iron 103,259 78,258 105,009 114,094 114,484 10.9 0.3 Wire rods 12,853 9,643 7,353 4,152 4,954 (61.5) 19.3 Tube & shutters 23,583 24,554 28,254 29,711 24,588 4.3 (17.2) Formed sections 286 227 209 241 269 (5.9) 11.6 Total production 658,935 584,014 683,514 723,618 673,285 2.2 (7.0) Source: Company, Angel Research August 02, 2010 2
  • 3. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 3: Quarterly sales volume trend (tonnes) 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 yoy % qoq % Flat products 250,665 246,042 256,931 292,549 215,808 (13.9) (26.2) Cold rolled steel 118,914 116,095 129,917 135,683 104,019 (12.5) (23.3) Galvanized steel 105,188 103,475 99,145 127,129 86,923 (17.4) (31.6) H&T 2,007 2,422 2,531 2,767 2,430 21.1 (12.2) HTSS 1,477 1,261 2,246 2,139 1,373 (7.0) (35.8) Colour coating 23,079 22,789 23,092 24,832 21,037 (8.8) (15.3) Hot rolled steel - - - - 26 - - Long products 110,544 93,488 102,443 100,230 93,525 (15.4) (6.7) Billets 70,369 57,968 68,333 66,821 65,624 (6.7) (1.8) Sponge iron 4,206 1,467 8 0 0 (100.0) (100.0) Wire rods 12,405 9,688 7,367 3,449 4,963 (60.0) 43.9 Tube & shutters 23,303 24,132 26,515 29,708 22,670 (2.7) (23.7) Formed sections 261 233 220 251 268 2.7 6.8 Total sales volume 361,209 339,530 359,374 392,779 309,333 (14.4) (21.2) Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 4: Quarterly realisation trend (gross) (Rs/tonne) 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 yoy % qoq % Flat products 41,486 43,074 44,280 45,124 50,916 22.7 12.8 Cold Rolled Steel 39,011 40,777 42,258 41,647 47,386 21.5 13.8 Galvanized Steel 41,792 43,469 43,956 46,324 51,632 23.5 11.5 H&T 79,223 78,035 81,391 80,737 88,889 12.2 10.1 HTSS 48,070 43,616 53,428 52,875 57,538 19.7 8.8 Colour Coating 49,136 49,234 52,096 53,348 60,608 23.3 13.6 Hot rolled steel - - - - 38,462 - - Long products 28,975 30,464 31,334 33,984 36,300 25.3 6.8 Billets 25,750 26,170 26,664 28,654 30,781 19.5 7.4 Sponge Iron 14,265 11,588 - - - - - Wire Rods 28,617 26,528 26,198 31,542 31,030 8.4 (1.6) Tube & Shutters 41,411 43,386 44,692 46,139 53,242 28.6 15.4 Formed Sections 42,146 42,918 45,455 47,809 52,239 23.9 9.3 Avg. gross realisation 38,634 40,453 42,162 43,786 47,879 23.9 9.3 Source: Company, Angel Research August 02, 2010 3
  • 4. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Result highlights Muted top-line performance led by lower sales volume BSL’s sales volume declined by 14.4% yoy and 21.2% qoq to 309,333 tonnes, of which flat sales accounted for 215,808 tonnes and long products sales stood at 93,525 tonnes. However, on the positive side, average gross realisation increased by 23.9% yoy and 9.3% qoq to Rs47,879/tonne. Consequently, net revenue grew by 5.2% yoy but fell by 14.7% qoq to Rs1,373cr. The 1.9mn tonne hot strip mill is under trial runs and BSL produced 62,789 tonnes of hot rolled steel during the quarter. The mill is expected to be commissioned in 2QFY2011. Exhibit 5: Net revenue grew by 5.2% yoy 2,000 60 1,609 1,600 1,429 1,373 40 1,305 1,298 1,200 (Rs cr) 20 (%) 800 0 400 0 (20) 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Net revenue (RHS) yoy change (LHS) Source: Company, Angel Research EBITDA margin expands by 696bp yoy Despite muted top-line performance, EBITDA margin expanded by 696bp yoy and 366bp qoq to 29.7% mainly on account of lower raw-material cost. Raw-material cost as a percentage of revenue fell to 54.6% in 1QFY2011 as compared to 66.1% in 1QFY2010 and 60.8% in 4QFY2010. Consequently, EBITDA grew by 37.4% yoy to Rs408cr. EBITDA/tonne increased to US $289 from US $232 in 4QFY2010 and US $169 in 1QFY2010. Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin expands by 696bp yoy Exhibit 7: EBITDA/tonne at US $289 in 1QFY2011 500 35 350 419 408 390 30 289 400 300 343 25 233 232 297 250 300 209 (US $/tonne) 20 (Rs cr) 200 (%) 169 200 15 150 10 100 100 5 0 0 50 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 0 EBITDA (RHS) EBITDA margin (LHS) 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research August 02, 2010 4
  • 5. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Net profit came in at Rs206cr While interest expense increased by 60.4% yoy and 43.0% qoq to Rs79cr, interest income fell by 82.8% yoy and 88.9% qoq to Rs6cr. Consequently, net profit increased by 19.7% yoy to Rs206cr but declined 14.6% sequentially. Exhibit 8: Net profit grew by 19.7% yoy in 1QFY2011 300 18 241 250 227 15 206 189 200 172 12 (Rs cr) 150 9 (%) 100 6 50 3 0 0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Net profit (RHS) Net profit margin (LHS) Source: Company, Angel Research August 02, 2010 5
  • 6. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Investment rationale Entering a new orbit BSL has undertaken an expansion plan in Orissa to increase its foothold in the industry. The project is being executed in three phases, with Phase-I already commissioned in FY2007 and Phase-II being commissioned recently. Post the completion of Phase-II, the company's primary steel-making capacity will increase to 2.2mn tonnes. Moreover, with the commissioning of its new HR plant in 2QFY2011E, BSL is moving from being a steel converter to a leading primary producer of steel, extending its presence in the steel value chain. Phase-III is currently under execution and is expected to come on stream by 3QFY2013E. On completion of Phase-III, BSL's primary capacity will increase to 4.7mn tonnes, making it one of the leading steel producers. Volume growth sweetened by increasing EBITDA/tonne With the commissioning of BSL's Phase-III expansion plan, we expect sales volume to grow at a 26.2% CAGR over FY2010–15E, much higher than its peers. Despite BSL not being integrated, cost of production is expected to be low due to a) its unique combination of BF-EAF technology to produce steel and b) lower conversion costs. The usage of BF-EAF technology will result in lower coal costs. Hence, we expect EBITDA to register a 42.3% CAGR over FY2010–12E through a combination of BF-EAF technology and low conversion cost. Thus, BSL is expected to earn EBITDA/tonne of US $331 in FY2011E and US $345 in FY2012E. Exhibit 9: Volumes to grow at 26.2% CAGR (FY10-15E) Exhibit 10: EBITDA/tonne at US $331 in FY2011 5.0 120 400 Captive usage of HR to lower cost 4.0 Post Phase-III 90 expansion 300 (mn tonnes) 3.0 (US $/tonne) 60 (%) 2.0 200 30 1.0 100 0.0 0 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E 0 FY06 FY09 FY12E FY15E Sales Volume (LHS) Volume growth (RHS) Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Top supplier of niche auto-grade products Over the years, BSL has been shifting its customer base from the trade segment to OEMs/exports. We believe growing investments by foreign OEMs and the strategic alliance with Sumitomo Metal will complement the company’s OEM relationships and will likely help BSL mitigate demand risks. August 02, 2010 6
  • 7. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Outlook and Valuation At the CMP of Rs1,559, the stock is trading at 7.3x FY2011E and 6.0x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We expect BSL to register a 26.2% CAGR in volumes over FY2010–15E on completion of its Phase-III expansion plan by October 2012 along with EBITDA/tonne increasing to US $331 in FY2011E. Moreover, with debt/equity expected to decline from 3.3x in FY2009 to 2.0x in FY2012E, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs1,979, valuing the stock at 6.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. At our target price, the stock would trade at 1.2x EV/IC. Exhibit 11: Key assumptions Key assumptions FY11E FY12E Revenue/tonne (Rs) 39,696 37,786 Sales volume (mn tonnes) 1.6 1.9 Source: Angel Research Exhibit 12: EV/EBITDA band 45,000 17x 40,000 35,000 14x 30,000 11x 25,000 (Rs cr) 20,000 8x 15,000 5x 10,000 5,000 0 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 13: P/E band 4,500 17x 4,000 3,500 3,000 12x 2,500 (Rs) 2,000 7x 1,500 1,000 500 2x 0 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research August 02, 2010 7
  • 8. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 14: P/BV band 4,000 3,500 3.5x 3,000 2,500 2.5x (Rs) 2,000 1,500 1.5x 1,000 500 0.5x 0 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 15: Recommendation summary Target Upside Companies CMP Reco. Mcap P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Price (%) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E SAIL 203 - Neutral 83,971 - 13.4 11.8 2.2 1.9 8.8 7.6 17.9 17.6 16.3 16.9 Tata Steel 537 697 Buy 48,516 29.8 9.0 9.6 1.5 1.3 6.8 6.2 17.9 14.7 11.8 11.7 JSW Steel 1,117 1,344 Buy 29,038 20.4 14.9 11.4 1.5 1.3 7.0 5.5 13.9 12.4 12.5 12.6 Bhushan 1,559 1,979 Buy 6,623 26.9 6.8 5.3 1.6 1.2 7.3 6.0 26.0 26.1 12.6 14.0 Steel Electrosteel 49 72 Buy 1,593 47.5 7.5 7.3 0.9 0.8 5.7 5.0 14.2 13.1 11.9 12.3 Godawari 250 322 Buy 673 28.9 4.7 3.5 1.0 0.8 3.5 2.3 26.1 26.7 21.2 23.5 Power Sarda Energy 260 290 Accumulate 874 11.6 7.4 5.9 1.3 1.1 5.4 4.0 19.4 20.2 15.1 16.5 Prakash Ind. 175 232 Buy 2,353 32.9 7.9 5.3 1.2 1.0 5.5 4.2 19.7 23.2 16.6 18.7 Monnet Ispat 450 534 Buy 2,699 18.8 10.0 6.9 1.3 1.1 9.1 7.4 14.8 17.6 11.7 12.7 Source: Company, Angel Research August 02, 2010 8
  • 9. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 4,179 4,645 5,395 6,004 6,800 7,709 Less: Excise duty (364) (467) (452) (363) (510) (578) Net sales 3,815 4,177 4,943 5,641 6,290 7,131 Other operating income 23 28 14 0 40 50 Total operating income 3,838 4,205 4,957 5,641 6,330 7,181 % chg 37.4 9.6 17.9 13.8 12.2 13.5 Total expenditure 3,210 3,370 3,928 4,192 3,973 4,248 Net raw materials 2,843 2,973 3,352 3,538 3,212 3,314 Other mfg costs 316 323 475 570 650 793 Personnel 51 74 101 84 111 142 Other - - - - - - EBITDA 628 835 1,029 1,449 2,357 2,933 % chg 58.6 33.0 23.2 40.8 62.7 24.4 (% of Net sales) 16.5 20.0 20.8 25.7 37.5 41.1 Depreciation 209 211 234 220 495 605 EBIT 419 624 795 1,229 1,862 2,327 % chg 82.0 48.8 27.4 54.7 51.5 25.0 (% of Net sales) 11.0 14.9 16.1 21.8 29.6 32.6 Interest charges 77 137 252 217 557 647 Other income 30 52 18 116 21 44 (% of PBT) 8.2 9.6 3.2 10.2 1.6 2.5 Share in profit of asso. - - - - - - Recurring PBT 372 539 561 1,128 1,326 1,725 % chg 133.2 44.7 4.1 101.2 17.5 30.0 Extra. Inc/(Expense) - - - - - - PBT (reported) 372 539 561 1,128 1,326 1,725 Tax 59 115 139 299 358 466 (% of PBT) 15.9 21.4 24.9 26.5 27.0 27.0 PAT (reported) 313 424 421 829 968 1,259 Add: Earnings of asso. - - - - - - Less: Minority interest - - - - - - Extra. Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) 313 424 421 829 968 1,259 ADJ. PAT 313 424 421 829 968 1,259 % chg 102.8 35.3 (0.6) 96.9 16.7 30.0 (% of Net sales) 8.2 10.1 8.5 14.7 15.4 17.7 Basic EPS (Rs) 75.0 99.8 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 74.4 99.8 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4 % chg 97.2 34.0 (0.6) 96.9 16.7 30.0 August 02, 2010 9
  • 10. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Balance Sheet Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity share capital 42 42 42 42 42 42 Reserves & surplus 1,172 1,583 1,992 2,809 3,764 5,011 Shareholders’ funds 1,215 1,625 2,034 2,851 3,807 5,054 Share warrants - - 400 400 400 400 Minority interest - - - - - - Total loans 3,242 5,718 8,066 10,366 11,346 11,826 Deferred tax liability 124 197 246 246 246 246 Total liabilities 4,580 7,540 10,747 13,864 15,800 17,526 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross block 2,694 2,927 3,282 8,482 10,482 11,582 Less: Acc. 970 1,168 1,396 1,616 2,110 2,716 depreciation Net Block 1,723 1,759 1,886 6,866 8,372 8,866 Capital work-in- 1,892 4,568 7,400 5,800 6,300 7,700 progress Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 21 58 114 114 114 114 Current assets 1,763 2,418 2,744 3,026 3,464 3,824 Cash 100 28 124 301 689 898 Loans & advances 367 644 769 769 769 769 Other 1,295 1,747 1,850 1,956 2,006 2,157 Current liabilities 819 1,264 1,396 1,943 2,450 2,978 Net current assets 944 1,155 1,347 1,084 1,014 846 Mis. exp. not written - - - - - - off Total assets 4,580 7,540 10,747 13,864 15,800 17,526 August 02, 2010 10
  • 11. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Cash flow statement Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 372 539 561 1,128 1,326 1,725 Depreciation 209 211 234 220 495 605 Change in working (230) (372) (468) 441 458 376 capital Less: Other income 42.9 123.9 255.9 0.0 - - Direct taxes paid 41 63 46 299 358 466 Cash flow from 353 439 537 1,490 1,920 2,241 operations (Inc.)/ Dec. in fixed (1,323) (2,415) (1,770) (3,600) (2,500) (2,500) assets (Inc.)/ Dec. in (1) (36) (49) - - - investments (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans - - - - - - and advances Other income 26 17 13 - - - Cash flow from (1,298) (2,434) (1,806) (3,600) (2,500) (2,500) investing Issue of equity 20 - 400 - - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 1,206 2,430 1,956 2,300 980 480 Dividend paid 12 11 8 12 12 12 Others 251 495 982 - - - Cash flow from 964 1,923 1,366 2,287 968 468 financing Inc./(Dec.) in cash 19 (73) 97 177 388 208 Opening cash bal. 82 100 28 124 301 689 Closing cash bal. 100 28 124 301 689 898 August 02, 2010 11
  • 12. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Key ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 21.1 15.6 15.7 8.0 6.8 5.3 P/CEPS 12.7 10.4 10.1 6.3 4.5 3.6 P/BV 5.5 4.1 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.2 Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 EV/Sales 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5 EV/EBITDA 15.5 14.7 14.2 11.5 7.3 6.0 EV/Total assets 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 Per share data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 75.0 99.8 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4 EPS (fully diluted) 73.8 99.8 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4 Cash EPS 122.9 149.5 154.4 247.0 344.4 439.0 DPS 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Book value 286.0 382.7 573.2 765.6 990.6 1,284.2 DuPont analysis EBIT margin 11.0 14.9 16.1 21.8 29.6 32.6 Tax retention ratio (%) 84.1 78.6 75.1 73.5 73.0 73.0 Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 RoIC (Post-tax) 9.6 8.2 6.6 7.5 9.5 10.8 Cost of debt (post tax) 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.2 3.7 4.1 Leverage (x) 2.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.0 Operating RoE 28.0 28.7 19.2 23.7 24.2 24.2 Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) 11.1 10.3 8.7 10.0 12.6 14.0 Angel RoIC (pre-tax) 19.9 22.6 25.8 22.4 22.5 26.2 RoE 29.7 29.8 20.8 29.2 26.0 26.1 Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (gross 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 block) Inventory (days) 97 139 134 130 130 130 Receivables (days) 52 54 46 45 50 50 Payables (days) 79 114 80 90 100 100 WC cycle (days) 48 57 62 67 64 61 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 2.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.0 Net debt to EBITDA 5.0 6.8 7.7 6.9 4.5 3.7 Interest coverage 5.4 4.6 3.2 5.7 3.3 3.6 August 02, 2010 12
  • 13. Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Bhushan Steel 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) August 02, 2010 13