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1QFY2011 Result Update | Agri-Business
                                                                                                                               August 11, 2010



 Jain Irrigation Systems                                                                           NEUTRAL
                                                                                                   CMP                              Rs1,230
 Performance Highlights                                                                            Target Price                           -
  Parameter (Rs cr)                   1QFY11     1QFY10           % yoy Angel Est       % Diff     Investment Period                          -
  Revenue                                  726        573           27       715            2
  EBITDA                                   166        126           31       158            5
                                                                                                   Stock Info

  EBITDA margin (%)                         23         22            0           22          -     Sector                         Agri-Business
  Adj. PAT                                  64         42           52           70        (9)     Market Cap (Rs cr)                     9,375
  Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                  Beta                                  0.4663
                                                                                                   52 Week High / Low               1323/649
 Jain Irrigation Systems (JISL) reported in-line 1QFY2011 results. Total revenues
                                                                                                   Avg. Daily Volume                      41270
 for the quarter grew 27% to Rs726cr, 2% ahead of our estimate. EBITDA margin
                                                                                                   Face Value (Rs)                           10
 at 23% came in as a positive surprise. Adjusted PAT for the quarter grew 52% to
 Rs64cr, 9% below our estimate. We recommend a Neutral on the stock.                               BSE Sensex                            18,070
                                                                                                   Nifty                                  5,421
 Micro irrigation system segment growth ahead of estimates: JISL’s 1QFY2011
                                                                                                   Reuters Code                          JAIR.BO
 results were in line our expectations. However, segment-wise there were few
                                                                                                   Bloomberg Code                         JI@IN
 surprises and disappointments. The MIS and PVC sheet segments registered
 robust growth of 44% and 61% respectively, during the quarter. The PVC pipes
 posted 17% growth, while the fruits segments recorded mere 2.5% yoy growth
                                                                                                   Shareholding Pattern (%)
 during the quarter. EBITDA margin came in at an all-time high of 23% on the
 back of higher contribution from the high-margin MIS segment. Reported PAT                        Promoters                               30.8
 stood at Rs53cr. Adjusted for forex losses, PAT for the quarter grew 52% yoy to                   MF / Banks / Indian Fls                   3.2
 Rs64cr (Rs42cr).                                                                                  FII / NRIs / OCBs                       56.0
                                                                                                   Indian Public / Others                  10.0
 Outlook and Valuation: Going ahead, we expect the MIS segment to register
 healthy 40% yoy growth over the next two years with the government continuing to
 focus on agriculture. The PVC pipes segment is also expected to post decent
 performance, with a revival in demand is visible. At Rs1,230, the stock is trading                Abs. (%)              3m        1yr       3yr
 at fair valuations of 22x FY2012E adj. FDEPS of Rs56.8. Hence, we recommend a                     Sensex                5.4      19.9     21.5
 Neutral on the stock.                                                                             JISL                 25.7      71.7    148.4



 Key Financials (Consolidated)
  Y/E March (Rs cr)                   FY2009       FY2010E           FY2011E          FY2012E
  Net Sales                             2,870          3,435             4,205          5,324
  % chg                                   29.5          19.7              22.4           26.6
  Net Profit                              186            202              289            432
  % chg                                   35.6           8.7              43.4           49.4
  EBITDA Margin (%)                      17.7           17.4              18.0           18.6
  FDEPS (Rs)                             25.6           26.5              38.0           56.8
  P/E (x)                                48.0           46.4              32.3           21.6
  P/BV (x)                               10.4            8.2               6.8            5.4
  RoE (%)                                21.0           19.8              23.0           27.8
  RoACE (%)                              17.3           17.3              20.8           25.7
                                                                                                  Sageraj Bariya
  EV/Sales (x)                             3.7           3.1               2.6            2.0
                                                                                                  022-40403800 Extn:346
  EV/EBITDA (x)                          20.9           18.0              14.4           10.9
                                                                                                  sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
 Source: Company, Angel Research




Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                                               1
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance (standalone)
                   Y/E March (Rs cr)                1QFY11 1QFY10      % chg FY2010 FY2009      % chg
                  Total Revenue                        726      573     26.6    2,737   2,188    25.1
                  Total RM                             389      319             1587    1288
                  as % of sales                         54       56               58      59
                  Gross Profit                         336      254     32.4    1,150    900     27.8
                  Gross margin (%)                      46       44               42      41
                  Staff cost                            29       23     25.3     104      81     28.0
                  as % of sales                          4        4                4       4
                  Other Expenses                       142      105     35.3     472     357     32.2
                  as % of sales                         20       18               17      16
                  Total Exp                            560      447     25.3    2163    1726     25.3
                  as % of sales                         77       78               79      79
                  EBITDA                               166      126     31.4     574     462     24.3
                  EBITDA margin (%)                   22.8      22.0             21.0    21.1
                  Depreciation                          20       15     36.5      69      48     44.2
                  EBIT                                 145      111     30.7     505     414     22.0
                  EBIT %                                20       19               18      19
                  Other Income                           0        0    188.9       6       3     68.3
                  Interest                              49       48      2.9     189     156     21.0
                  PBT                                   97       64     51.7     322     261     23.2
                  Extra-ord Items                       20      (21)             (71)     78
                  PBT                                   77       84     (8.8)    393     184    114.0
                  Total tax                             24       29              122      64
                  tax rate                              25       45               38      24
                  PAT                                   53       56     (5.2)    271     120    125.8
                  PAT (%)                                7       10               10       5
                  Adj PAT                               64       42     51.7     213     173     23.2
                  adj PAT (%)                            9        7                8       8
                  Equity                                76       76               76      72
                  Adj EPS (Rs)                         8.4       5.5    51.7     28.0    23.9    17.3

                  Source: Company, Angel Research




August 11, 2010                                                                                     2
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update



                                                                         Robust revenue growth continues: JISL maintained its strong revenue growth
                                                                         momentum registering 27% yoy growth in 1QFY2011 to Rs726cr (Rs573cr). This
                                                                         robust performance on the top-line front came on the back of better-than-
                                                                         estimated performance by the MIS, PVC sheet and onion divisions.


Exhibit 2: Total revenue trend and growth                                                      Exhibit 3: Segmental growth trend

           1,200                                                                    50               75

           1,000                                                                                     60
                                                                                    40
            800                                                                                      45
 (Rs cr)




                                                                                    30




                                                                                         (%)
                                                                                                     30
            600




                                                                                               (%)
                                                                                    20               15
            400
                                                                                                      0
            200                                                                     10
                                                                                                     -15
              -                                                                     -
                                                                                                     -30
                   1QFY10




                             2QFY10




                                              3QFY10




                                                               4QFY10




                                                                           1QFY11




                                                                                                             MIS            Pipes              Sheet        Agro

                                                                                                           1QFY10   2QFY10          3QFY10     4QFY10   1QFY11
                               Total Revenue                     % YoY


Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                Source: Company, Angel Research

                                                                         Changes in revenue mix continue: Part of the re-jig has been due to the
                                                                         discontinuation of PC sheet division that contributed 3% of revenues and 1% to
                                                                         EBITDA in FY2009. Revenue contribution from the high-margin MIS segment
                                                                         increased by 700bp to 52% (45%) in 1QFY2011, while contribution from the PVC
                                                                         and PE pipes segments dropped by 400bp and 100bp, to 32% (36%) and 5%
                                                                         (6%), respectively.

Exhibit 4: Revenue mix - 1QFY2010                                                              Exhibit 5: Revenue mix - 1QFY2011


                                      13%                                                                                    11%
                                                                                                                       5%
                             6%

                                                                45%

                                                                                                                                                52%
                                                                                                                     32%
                              36%




                            MIS       Pipes            Sheet   Agro                                                  MIS     Pipes     Sheet   Agro


Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                Source: Company, Angel Research


                                                                         Robust growth in MIS segment: JISL’s key revenue and EBITDA contributing
                                                                         segment, MIS, posted robust yoy growth of 44% (45% volume growth) for
                                                                         1QFY2011, increasing its contribution to 52% of sales (50% - 4QFY2010, 47% in
                                                                         3QFY2010 and 2QFY2010, and 45% - 1QFY2010). North India and Andhra
                                                                         Pradesh were the fastest growing regions for the company registering growth of
                                                                         1.7x and 1.4x, respectively. The other key states that contributed to growth were
                                                                         Maharashtra (64%), Gujarat (75%), Karnataka (37%) and Rajasthan (40%). EBITDA
                                                                         margins of the segment fell marginally during the quarter to 31% due to the
                                                                         change in product mix in favour of tubing. Management has guided for 40%
                                                                         revenue growth for FY2011.


August 11, 2010                                                                                                                                                    3
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update




Exhibit 6: Revenue trend and growth                                             Exhibit 7: EBITDA trend

            600                                  46                50                       300                                                           50
                                                           44
                             38
            500                                                    40                       250                                                           40
                    33                                                                              32                   31          32            31
                                                                                                              30
            400                          27                                                 200
                                                                   30                                                                                     30




                                                                                 (Rs cr)
  (Rs cr)




                                                                                            150




                                                                                                                                                               (%)
            300




                                                                          (%)
                                                                   20                                                                                     20
            200                                                                             100
                                                                   10                       50                                                            10
            100

              0                                                    0                          0                                                           0
                  1QFY10   2QFY10     3QFY10   4QFY10    1QFY11                                   1QFY10    2QFY10     3QFY10      4QFY10        1QFY11

                                    Revenue      % YoY                                                       EBITDA             EBITDA Margin


Source: Company, Angel Research                                                 Source: Company, Angel Research


                                                         PVC pipes segment continues to grow: For the quarter, the segment posted 17%
                                                         yoy growth in top-line (4% volume growth) to Rs173cr led by higher realisation on
                                                         higher polymer prices. EBITDA margins of the segment remained stable at 9%.

Exhibit 8: High realisation leads to growth                                     Exhibit 9: Stable margins

                                                                                            18      9                                              9      10
            200                                                    50                                                                 9
                   148                                    173
                                                160                                                           8          8
                                                                   40                       15                                                            8
            150                         135
                                                                   30                       12
                                                                                                                                                          6
 (Rs cr)




                                                                                  (Rs cr)




            100              83                                    20
                                                                          (%)




                                                                                             9




                                                                                                                                                               (%)
                                                                                                                                                          4
                                                                   10                        6
             50
                                                                   0                         3                                                            2

              0                                                    (10)                      0                                                            0
                  1QFY10   2QFY10     3QFY10   4QFY10    1QFY11                                   1QFY10    2QFY10     3QFY10      4QFY10        1QFY11

                                    Revenue      % YoY                                                        EBITDA             EBITDA Margin


Source: Company, Angel Research                                                 Source: Company, Angel Research

                                                         Volatility in PE pipes segment continues: After breaking the declining sales trend in
                                                         2QFY2010, the segment reverted on growth path driven by strong demand from
                                                         the gas segment (growth of 183%). Segment sales for 1QFY2011 increased 12%
                                                         (9% volume growth) to Rs62cr; EBITDA margins came in flat at 10% yoy, though
                                                         sequentially it declined by 300bp.




August 11, 2010                                                                                                                                                 4
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update




Exhibit 10: Sales trend                                                        Exhibit 11: EBITDA trend

          110                                   104              100                              18                                                             15
                                                                                                                      14
                           85                                    75                               15
           88                                                                                                                                13
                                       72                                                                                                                        13
                  56
                                                          62     50                               12
           66                                                                                                                    11
(Rs cr)




                                                                                    (Rs cr)
                                                                 25                                           10




                                                                         (%)
                                                                                                   9                                                      10     11




                                                                                                                                                                      (%)
           44
                                                                 0                                 6
                                                                                                                                                                 9
           22                                                    (25)                              3

            0                                                    (50)                              0                                                             7
                1QFY10   2QFY10      3QFY10    4QFY10   1QFY11                                           1QFY10     2QFY10     3QFY10      4QFY10       1QFY11

                                Revenue        % YoY                                                                 EBITDA             EBITDA Margin


Source: Company, Angel Research                                                Source: Company, Angel Research

                                                        PVC sheets segment: This segment registered robust growth of 61% in revenues.
                                                        EBITDA margin of the segment continued to be stable at 10%.

Exhibit 12: PVC sheet growth rebounding                                        Exhibit 13: Stable margins

           45                                    42               90                          5                                                                  18
                                                           38                                                        15
           36                                                                                 4                                 13                               15
                                          32
                  24                                              60
                                                                                                         10                                               10     12
           27                                                                                 3
                                                                                                                                             8
(Rs cr)




                                                                               (Rs cr)




                           19                                     30
                                                                         (%)




                                                                                                                                                                 9




                                                                                                                                                                      (%)
           18                                                                                 2
                                                                                                                                                                 6
                                                                     0
            9                                                                                 1                                                                  3

            0                                                     (30)                        0                                                                  0
                1QFY10   2QFY10      3QFY10    4QFY10   1QFY11                                         1QFY10      2QFY10     3QFY10      4QFY10        1QFY11

                                  Revenue       % YoY                                                                EBITDA             EBITDA Margin


Source: Company, Angel Research                                                Source: Company, Angel Research

                                                        Agro products (onions and fruit puree): Total revenues of the segment grew by 9%
                                                        during the quarter. Revenues of the onion segment increased 23% to Rs26cr, while
                                                        total volumes increased 43% for the quarter. EBITDA margins contracted
                                                        marginally due to adverse forex movement. The fruit puree segment recorded flat
                                                        revenues of Rs53cr (Rs52cr) because of lower availability of mangoes, while total
                                                        volumes de-grew by 23%. The division’s EBITDA margin came in at 27% (26%).
                                                        Due to low rainfall last year availability of vegetable and fruits supply has been
                                                        scarce owing to which the company expects the onion segment to register flat yoy
                                                        revenues, while the fruits segment is likely to post nominal growth of 10-12% for
                                                        the year.




August 11, 2010                                                                                                                                                        5
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update




Exhibit 14: Onion segment revenue & EBITDA trend                                   Exhibit 15: Mango segment revenue & EBITDA trend

           75                                        66               90                     120                                                                   90
                                                                                                                                                104
                                                                                             100
           60
                                                                      60                                                                                           60
                                                                                              80                                      66
                                                                                                          52            63
           45




                                                                                   (Rs cr)
 (Rs cr)




                                                                                              60                                                            53     30




                                                                                                                                                                          (%)
                                                                      30




                                                                             (%)
                           30         29
           30                                                  26
                  21                                                                          40
                                                                      0                                                                                            0
           15                                                                                 20

            0                                                         (30)                     0                                                                   (30)

                1QFY10   2QFY10     3QFY10        4QFY10     1QFY11                                     1QFY10        2QFY10      3QFY10       4QFY10     1QFY11

                                Revenue           EBITDA                                                                       Revenue          EBITDA


Source: Company, Angel Research                                                    Source: Company, Angel Research

                                          Exhibit 16: Segmental performance (standalone)
                                          Division (Rs cr)                              1QFY11           1QFY10              % chg         FY2010     FY2009       % chg
                                          Revenue
                                          MIS                                                 374              260            43.9          1302          952       36.8
                                          PVC pipes                                           173              148            17.0           525          414       27.1
                                          PE Pipes                                                 62            56           12.0           317          334       (5.1)
                                          PVC Sheet                                                38            24           60.6           116          117       (0.6)
                                          PC sheets                                                0             14      (100.0)              37           56      (34.8)
                                          Onion                                                    26            21           23.3           146          133           9.7
                                          Fruit                                                    53            52            2.5           285          218       30.3
                                          Total                                               726              574            26.6          2728         2223       22.7


                                          EBITDA
                                          MIS                                                 117                84           38.7           410          283       44.8
                                          PVC pipes                                                16            14           11.5            45           32       39.5
                                          PE Pipes                                                 6             6            10.5            39           42       (8.1)
                                          PVC Sheet                                                4             2            62.5            13           16      (20.9)
                                          PC sheets                                                 -            1                -            3            6      (49.2)
                                          Onions                                                   6             5            17.0            15           36      (58.0)
                                          Fruit                                                    15            14            7.4            57           43       32.2
                                          Total                                               163              126            29.4           581          458       26.8


                                          EBITDA (%)
                                          MIS                                                 31.3             32.4                          31.5        29.8
                                          PVC pipes                                            9.0              9.4                           8.5         7.7
                                          PE Pipes                                            10.1             10.2                          12.2        12.6
                                          PVC Sheet                                           10.3             10.2                          10.8        13.6
                                          PC sheets*                                                -           8.8                           8.7        11.2
                                          Onions                                              21.2             22.4                          10.4        27.1
                                          Fruit                                               27.3             26.1                          19.9        19.6
                                          Total                                               22.4             21.9                          21.3        20.6

                                          Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: * division discontinued




August 11, 2010                                                                                                                                                            6
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update



                  Investment Arguments

                  Opportunity abound in MIS

                  JISL is one of the pioneers in introducing micro irrigation systems (MIS) in India.
                  India has total arable land of 140 million hectares (mn ha), of that over 71mn ha
                  is rain-fed, while the immediate MI potential that can be created through major
                  and medium irrigation projects is 69mn ha. However, around 4mn ha is covered
                  under sprinkler and drip irrigation (around 7% of the total MIS potential), which
                  signifies there exists huge scope for further MIS in India. JISL is the leading player
                  among the organised players accounting for a sizeable 55% market share of the
                  MIS market.

                  Pipes – Unfolding opportunity

                  JISL had traditionally been in the PVC pipes business, which were primarily used by
                  the farmers for irrigation purposes and some portion was utilised for the drinking
                  water supply schemes. Over the past few years however, this segment has evolved
                  with different applications for the pipes ranging from being used in the city gas
                  distribution networks, for sewage and waste disposal, telecom cables, etc. Some of
                  JISL’s esteemed clients include leading telecom and gas companies and municipal
                  corporations of the various cities. With the rise in urban population, JISL’s pipe
                  segment is well-placed to capitalise on the upcoming opportunity.

                  Agro products (dehydrated vegetables and fruit processing) – A budding story

                  Food processing, which was a small part of JISL’s business, is now quite a sizable
                  business having taken off on the back of the company’s organic as well as
                  inorganic initiatives. Although the Indian market is not yet ripe for dehydrated
                  vegetables, the overseas market offers huge opportunities for organised players
                  like JISL. Domestically, the industry is fragmented and unorganised, which supplies
                  semi-finished products in crude form to the European or US buyers, who further
                  process it into finished products. Since the domestic market is still evolving, JISL
                  has focused primarily on the overseas market. India is the second largest producer
                  of fruits after China. Although, India accounts for around 10% of the total global
                  fruits production, fruit processing has been limited to a mere 2% of production.
                  JISL is one of successful food processing companies in India to take advantage of
                  the same. The domestic fruit juice and nectar business is growing at a fast pace
                  further offering good potential for JISL.

                  Outlook and Valuation

                  Going ahead, we believe that the MIS segment will continue to witness healthy
                  growth, as the central government focuses on increasing farm output to tackle the
                  long-term food security issue, along with increasing the farmers’ income. We
                  expect the segment to continue to grow between 40% over the next two years. In
                  the case of the PE pipes segment, a revival in demand is visible.

                  We have marginally revised our FY2012E estimates to factor in: a) marginally
                  weak FY2010 performance of subsidiaries, (b) likely nominal growth in agro
                  product division, (c) better revenue visibility and likely higher profitability in the MIS
                  and pipe divisions, and (d) better working capital management.



August 11, 2010                                                                                           7
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Exhibit 17: Change in estimate
                                                                               Old                            New                               % chg
                  Parameters (Rs cr)                                FY11E            FY12E          FY11E              FY12E          FY11E                   FY12E
                  Sales                                             4,478            5,641          4,209              5,329            (6.0)                  (5.5)
                  EBITDA                                               784               987            758             991             (3.4)                   0.4
                  EBITDA margin (%)                                   17.5               17.5         18.0              18.6
                  Adj PAT                                              286               404            290             433                    1.3              7.1
                  Adj FDEPS                                           37.6               53.1         38.0              56.9                   1.3              7.1
                  Source: Company, Angel Research

                  At Rs1,230, the stock is trading at 22x FY2012E Adj. FDEPS of Rs56.8. In the
                  recent past, the stock witnessed a steep run up on account of which we
                  recommend a Neutral on the stock.


                  Exhibit 18: Key Assumptions
                                                                                                                        FY11E                                 FY12E
                  Sale growth (%)
                  -MIS                                                                                                      40                                   40
                  -PVC Pipes                                                                                                20                                   16
                  -PE Pipes                                                                                                 15                                   12
                  -PVC Sheet                                                                                                15                                   13
                  -Onion                                                                                                          1                              18
                  -Fruit                                                                                                    10                                   18
                  Standalone                                                                                                25                                   29
                  Subsidiary contri                                                                                         20                                   20
                  EBITDA margin (%)                                                                                      18.0                                  18.6
                  Tax rate (%)                                                                                              33                                   33

                  Source: Company, Angel Research



                  Exhibit 19: One-year forward P/E band
                    1,600
                    1,400
                    1,200
                    1,000
                       800
                  Rs




                       600
                       400
                       200
                           0
                                                                                                                                      Oct-09
                                                                                                              Feb-09
                                                                      Sep-07




                                                                                                     Sep-08
                                                                                           May-08




                                                                                                                         Jun-09
                                                  Dec-06




                                                                                Jan-08
                               Apr-06

                                        Aug-06




                                                           Apr-07




                                                                                                                                                                Jul-10
                                                                                                                                                     Mar-10




                                                 Price              15x           19x               23x           27x                 31x

                  Source: C-line, Angel Research




August 11, 2010                                                                                                                                                      8
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Exhibit 20: JISL v/s Sensex – One-year absolute returns

                    200

                    180

                    160

                    140

                    120

                    100

                      80




                                                                                 Dec-09




                                                                                                                                        Apr-10
                           Aug-09




                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-10

                                                                                                                                                                                     Aug-10
                                                      Oct-09




                                                                                                                      Mar-10

                                                                                                                               Mar-10
                                                                                                             Feb-10
                                    Sep-09

                                             Sep-09



                                                               Nov-09

                                                                        Nov-09




                                                                                                                                                 May-10

                                                                                                                                                          Jun-10

                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-10
                                                                                           Jan-10

                                                                                                    Jan-10
                                                                                          JISL                   SENSEX

                  Source: C-line, Angel Research




August 11, 2010                                                                                                                                                                               9
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Profit & Loss Statement
                  Y/E March (Rs cr)                     FY07    FY08    FY09    FY10    FY11E   FY12E
                  Total operating income                1,392   2,216   2,870   3,435   4,209   5,329
                   % chg                                 65.2    59.2    29.5    19.7    22.5    26.6
                  Total Expenditure                     1,205   1,870   2,363   2,836   3,452   4,338
                  Net Raw Materials                      781    1,177   1,551   1,893   2,273   2,878
                  Other Mfg costs                        129     176     229     256     307     373
                  Personnel                              125     245     293     351     421     533
                  Other                                  170     272     290     335     450     554
                  EBITDA                                 187     346     507     599     758     991
                   % chg                                 45.7    84.4    46.8    18.0    26.5    30.8
                   (% of Net Sales)                      13.5    15.6    17.7    17.4    18.0    18.6
                  Depreciation& Amortisation              43      56      68     102     123     142
                  EBIT                                   144     290     439     497     635     849
                   % chg                                 73.4   101.1    51.5    13.2    27.8    33.7
                   (% of Net Sales)                      10.3    13.1    15.3    14.5    15.1    15.9
                  Interest & other Charges                77     137     185     218     204     204
                  Other Income                            33      37       1       1       1       1
                   (% of PBT)                             33      19       0       0       0       0
                  Recurring PBT                          100     190     255     280     432     646
                   % chg                                 72.1    89.1    34.3     9.8    54.4    49.3
                  Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)            (1)     (7)    (60)     87        -       -
                  PBT (reported)                          99     183     195     367     432     646
                  Tax                                     20      54      66     120     143     213
                   (% of PBT)                            20.3    29.6    33.7    32.8    33.0    33.0
                  PAT (reported)                          79     129     129     247     290     433
                  Add: Share of earnings of associate       -       -       -       -       -       -
                  Less: Minority interest (MI)              -      3       4       1      (1)     (1)
                  Prior period items                       0      (2)      0        -       -       -
                  PAT after MI (reported)                 79     126     126     245     290     434
                  ADJ. PAT                                80     137     186     202     290     433
                   % chg                                 39.1    70.2    35.6     8.7    43.6    49.3
                   (% of Net Sales)                       5.8     6.2     6.5     5.9     6.9     8.1
                  Basic EPS (Rs)                          13      19      26      27      38      57
                  Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)                  13      19      26      27      38      57
                   % chg                                 31.4    45.9    35.0     3.5    43.6    49.3




August 11, 2010                                                                                    10
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Balance Sheet Statement
                  Y/E March (Rs cr)          FY07      FY08    FY09   FY10E   FY11E   FY12E
                  SOURCES OF FUNDS
                  Equity Share Capital         62        72      72      76     76      76
                  Preference Capital           89        89      45       2       -       -
                  Reserves& Surplus           264       713     780   1,062   1,299   1,663
                  Shareholders Funds          414       873     897   1,140   1,375   1,739
                  Minority Interest            10        65      70      72     71      70
                  Total Loans                 859     1,276   1,817   1,580   1,675   1,591
                  Deferred Tax Liability         -       11      71     103     73        -
                  Total Liabilities          1,284    2,225   2,855   2,895   3,194   3,400
                  APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                  Gross Block                 862     1,262   1,750   2,160   2,560   2,816
                  Less: Acc. Depreciation     282       486     581     683    805     948
                  Net Block                   580       776   1,170   1,478   1,755   1,868
                  Capital Work-in-Progress     79       120     121     121    128     141
                  Goodwill                     66       120     167     167    167     167
                  Investments                  20        60      20      20     20      20
                  Current Assets              999     1,873   2,312   2,226   2,494   2,950
                  Cash                         44       104     117     133    130     162
                  Loans & Advances            116       287     320     337    382     420
                  Other                       838     1,483   1,874   1,755   1,981   2,368
                  Current liabilities         514       741     964   1,146   1,399   1,780
                  Net Current Assets          484     1,132   1,348   1,080   1,095   1,170
                  Mis. Exp. & Others           54        16      30      30     30      33
                  Total Assets               1,284    2,225   2,855   2,895   3,194   3,400




August 11, 2010                                                                          11
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Cash Flow Statement
                  Y/E March (Rs cr)                     FY07    FY08    FY09    FY10E   FY11E   FY12E
                   Profit before tax                     104     194     199     367     432     646
                   Depreciation                           41      56      68     102     123     142
                   Change in Working Capital            (120)   (488)    (18)    528     155      82
                   Less: Other income                       -       -       -       -       -       -
                   Direct taxes paid                      (9)    (23)    (22)   (120)   (143)   (213)
                   Cash Flow from Operations              16    (261)    227     877     568     657
                   (Inc.) / Dec. in Fixed Assets        (256)   (291)   (464)   (410)   (407)   (269)
                   (Inc.) / Dec. in Investments          (64)    (51)     (6)       -       -      0
                   Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and advances   (320)   (343)   (470)   (410)   (407)   (269)
                   Other income                             -       -       -       -       -       -
                   Cash Flow from Investing             (320)   (343)   (470)   (410)   (407)   (269)
                   Issue of Equity                        42     174     (43)     43      (3)       -
                   Inc./(Dec.) in loans                  159     596     530    (237)     95     (84)
                   Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)             (26)    (20)    (23)    (39)    (52)    (69)
                   Others                                (66)   (136)   (183)   (218)   (204)   (204)
                   Cash Flow from Financing              109     615     281    (451)   (163)   (357)
                   Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                  (195)     11      38      16      (3)     31
                   Opening Cash balances                 239      56      67     117     133     130
                   Closing Cash balances                  44      67     105     133     130     162




August 11, 2010                                                                                    12
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update




                  Key Ratios
                  Y/E March                                FY07   FY08    FY09    FY10E   FY11E   FY12E
                  Valuation Ratio (x)
                  P/E (on FDEPS)                           94.5   64.8    48.0     46.4    32.3    21.6
                  P/CEPS                                   61.4   46.0    35.1     30.8    22.7    16.3
                  P/BV                                     23.3   11.3    10.4      8.2     6.8     5.4
                  Dividend yield (%)                        0.2     0.2     0.2     0.4     0.4     0.5
                  EV/Sales                                  6.0     4.5     3.7     3.1     2.6     2.0
                  EV/EBITDA                                44.9   29.0    20.9     18.0    14.4    10.9
                  EV / Total Assets                         6.6     4.5     3.7     3.7     3.4     3.2
                  Per Share Data (Rs)
                  EPS (Basic)                              13.4    20.5    25.7    27.2    38.1    56.9
                  EPS (fully diluted)                      13.0    19.0    25.6    26.5    38.1    56.9
                  Cash EPS                                 20.0    26.7    35.1    39.9    54.2    75.6
                  DPS                                       2.1     3.0     2.5     4.5     6.0     8.0
                  Book Value                               52.7   108.9   117.7   149.7   180.9   228.7
                  Dupont Analysis
                  EBIT margin                              10.3    13.1    15.3    14.5    15.1    15.9
                  Tax retention ratio                      79.7    70.4    66.3    67.2    67.0    67.0
                  Asset turnover (x)                        1.5     1.5     1.3     1.4     1.6     1.9
                  ROIC (Post-tax)                          12.5    13.7    13.4    13.6    16.2    20.0
                  Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                   7.8     8.8     7.8     8.5     8.4     8.4
                  Leverage (x)                              1.8     1.5     1.6     1.5     1.2     1.0
                  Operating ROE                            20.6    21.4    22.6    21.3    25.6    31.0
                  Returns (%)
                  ROCE (Pre-tax)                           12.5    16.5    17.3    17.3    20.9    25.7
                  Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)                     15.6    19.5    20.3    20.2    24.2    29.8
                  ROE                                      21.9    21.3    21.0    19.8    23.0    27.8
                  Turnover ratios (x)
                  Asset Turnover (Gross Block)              1.8     2.1     1.9     1.8     1.8     2.0
                  Inventory / Sales (days)                  97     105     114     100      96      93
                  Receivables (days)                        94     108     110     100      90      85
                  Payables (days)                           96      89      86      92      93      93
                  Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)   97.5   128.4   153.0   128.0    96.9    82.3
                  Solvency ratios (x)
                  Net debt to equity                        2.0     1.3     1.9     1.3     1.1     0.8
                  Net debt to EBITDA                        4.3     3.4     3.3     2.4     2.0     1.4
                  Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)       1.9     2.1     2.4     2.3     3.1     4.2




August 11, 2010                                                                                     13
Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update




  Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800                    E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                   Website: www.angeltrade.com

 DISCLAIMER

 This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
 decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
 such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
 referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
 risks of such an investment.

 Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
 investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
 document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

 Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
 trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
 fundamentals.

 The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
 sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
 document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
 responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
 Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
 nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
 Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
 compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
 This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
 redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

 Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
 other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
 the past.

 Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
 connection with the use of this information.

 Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
 refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
 its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                            Jain Irrigation
 1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                   No
 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                             Yes
 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock                  No
 4. Broking relationship with company covered                                        No

 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.



 Ratings (Returns) :             Buy (> 15%)                      Accumulate (5% to 15%)                 Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                 Reduce (-5% to 15%)              Sell (< -15%)


August 11, 2010                                                                                                                           14

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JISL

  • 1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | Agri-Business August 11, 2010 Jain Irrigation Systems NEUTRAL CMP Rs1,230 Performance Highlights Target Price - Parameter (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % yoy Angel Est % Diff Investment Period - Revenue 726 573 27 715 2 EBITDA 166 126 31 158 5 Stock Info EBITDA margin (%) 23 22 0 22 - Sector Agri-Business Adj. PAT 64 42 52 70 (9) Market Cap (Rs cr) 9,375 Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 0.4663 52 Week High / Low 1323/649 Jain Irrigation Systems (JISL) reported in-line 1QFY2011 results. Total revenues Avg. Daily Volume 41270 for the quarter grew 27% to Rs726cr, 2% ahead of our estimate. EBITDA margin Face Value (Rs) 10 at 23% came in as a positive surprise. Adjusted PAT for the quarter grew 52% to Rs64cr, 9% below our estimate. We recommend a Neutral on the stock. BSE Sensex 18,070 Nifty 5,421 Micro irrigation system segment growth ahead of estimates: JISL’s 1QFY2011 Reuters Code JAIR.BO results were in line our expectations. However, segment-wise there were few Bloomberg Code JI@IN surprises and disappointments. The MIS and PVC sheet segments registered robust growth of 44% and 61% respectively, during the quarter. The PVC pipes posted 17% growth, while the fruits segments recorded mere 2.5% yoy growth Shareholding Pattern (%) during the quarter. EBITDA margin came in at an all-time high of 23% on the back of higher contribution from the high-margin MIS segment. Reported PAT Promoters 30.8 stood at Rs53cr. Adjusted for forex losses, PAT for the quarter grew 52% yoy to MF / Banks / Indian Fls 3.2 Rs64cr (Rs42cr). FII / NRIs / OCBs 56.0 Indian Public / Others 10.0 Outlook and Valuation: Going ahead, we expect the MIS segment to register healthy 40% yoy growth over the next two years with the government continuing to focus on agriculture. The PVC pipes segment is also expected to post decent performance, with a revival in demand is visible. At Rs1,230, the stock is trading Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr at fair valuations of 22x FY2012E adj. FDEPS of Rs56.8. Hence, we recommend a Sensex 5.4 19.9 21.5 Neutral on the stock. JISL 25.7 71.7 148.4 Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 2,870 3,435 4,205 5,324 % chg 29.5 19.7 22.4 26.6 Net Profit 186 202 289 432 % chg 35.6 8.7 43.4 49.4 EBITDA Margin (%) 17.7 17.4 18.0 18.6 FDEPS (Rs) 25.6 26.5 38.0 56.8 P/E (x) 48.0 46.4 32.3 21.6 P/BV (x) 10.4 8.2 6.8 5.4 RoE (%) 21.0 19.8 23.0 27.8 RoACE (%) 17.3 17.3 20.8 25.7 Sageraj Bariya EV/Sales (x) 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.0 022-40403800 Extn:346 EV/EBITDA (x) 20.9 18.0 14.4 10.9 sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
  • 2. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance (standalone) Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg Total Revenue 726 573 26.6 2,737 2,188 25.1 Total RM 389 319 1587 1288 as % of sales 54 56 58 59 Gross Profit 336 254 32.4 1,150 900 27.8 Gross margin (%) 46 44 42 41 Staff cost 29 23 25.3 104 81 28.0 as % of sales 4 4 4 4 Other Expenses 142 105 35.3 472 357 32.2 as % of sales 20 18 17 16 Total Exp 560 447 25.3 2163 1726 25.3 as % of sales 77 78 79 79 EBITDA 166 126 31.4 574 462 24.3 EBITDA margin (%) 22.8 22.0 21.0 21.1 Depreciation 20 15 36.5 69 48 44.2 EBIT 145 111 30.7 505 414 22.0 EBIT % 20 19 18 19 Other Income 0 0 188.9 6 3 68.3 Interest 49 48 2.9 189 156 21.0 PBT 97 64 51.7 322 261 23.2 Extra-ord Items 20 (21) (71) 78 PBT 77 84 (8.8) 393 184 114.0 Total tax 24 29 122 64 tax rate 25 45 38 24 PAT 53 56 (5.2) 271 120 125.8 PAT (%) 7 10 10 5 Adj PAT 64 42 51.7 213 173 23.2 adj PAT (%) 9 7 8 8 Equity 76 76 76 72 Adj EPS (Rs) 8.4 5.5 51.7 28.0 23.9 17.3 Source: Company, Angel Research August 11, 2010 2
  • 3. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Robust revenue growth continues: JISL maintained its strong revenue growth momentum registering 27% yoy growth in 1QFY2011 to Rs726cr (Rs573cr). This robust performance on the top-line front came on the back of better-than- estimated performance by the MIS, PVC sheet and onion divisions. Exhibit 2: Total revenue trend and growth Exhibit 3: Segmental growth trend 1,200 50 75 1,000 60 40 800 45 (Rs cr) 30 (%) 30 600 (%) 20 15 400 0 200 10 -15 - - -30 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 MIS Pipes Sheet Agro 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Total Revenue % YoY Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Changes in revenue mix continue: Part of the re-jig has been due to the discontinuation of PC sheet division that contributed 3% of revenues and 1% to EBITDA in FY2009. Revenue contribution from the high-margin MIS segment increased by 700bp to 52% (45%) in 1QFY2011, while contribution from the PVC and PE pipes segments dropped by 400bp and 100bp, to 32% (36%) and 5% (6%), respectively. Exhibit 4: Revenue mix - 1QFY2010 Exhibit 5: Revenue mix - 1QFY2011 13% 11% 5% 6% 45% 52% 32% 36% MIS Pipes Sheet Agro MIS Pipes Sheet Agro Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Robust growth in MIS segment: JISL’s key revenue and EBITDA contributing segment, MIS, posted robust yoy growth of 44% (45% volume growth) for 1QFY2011, increasing its contribution to 52% of sales (50% - 4QFY2010, 47% in 3QFY2010 and 2QFY2010, and 45% - 1QFY2010). North India and Andhra Pradesh were the fastest growing regions for the company registering growth of 1.7x and 1.4x, respectively. The other key states that contributed to growth were Maharashtra (64%), Gujarat (75%), Karnataka (37%) and Rajasthan (40%). EBITDA margins of the segment fell marginally during the quarter to 31% due to the change in product mix in favour of tubing. Management has guided for 40% revenue growth for FY2011. August 11, 2010 3
  • 4. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 6: Revenue trend and growth Exhibit 7: EBITDA trend 600 46 50 300 50 44 38 500 40 250 40 33 32 31 32 31 30 400 27 200 30 30 (Rs cr) (Rs cr) 150 (%) 300 (%) 20 20 200 100 10 50 10 100 0 0 0 0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Revenue % YoY EBITDA EBITDA Margin Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research PVC pipes segment continues to grow: For the quarter, the segment posted 17% yoy growth in top-line (4% volume growth) to Rs173cr led by higher realisation on higher polymer prices. EBITDA margins of the segment remained stable at 9%. Exhibit 8: High realisation leads to growth Exhibit 9: Stable margins 18 9 9 10 200 50 9 148 173 160 8 8 40 15 8 150 135 30 12 6 (Rs cr) (Rs cr) 100 83 20 (%) 9 (%) 4 10 6 50 0 3 2 0 (10) 0 0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Revenue % YoY EBITDA EBITDA Margin Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Volatility in PE pipes segment continues: After breaking the declining sales trend in 2QFY2010, the segment reverted on growth path driven by strong demand from the gas segment (growth of 183%). Segment sales for 1QFY2011 increased 12% (9% volume growth) to Rs62cr; EBITDA margins came in flat at 10% yoy, though sequentially it declined by 300bp. August 11, 2010 4
  • 5. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 10: Sales trend Exhibit 11: EBITDA trend 110 104 100 18 15 14 85 75 15 88 13 72 13 56 62 50 12 66 11 (Rs cr) (Rs cr) 25 10 (%) 9 10 11 (%) 44 0 6 9 22 (25) 3 0 (50) 0 7 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Revenue % YoY EBITDA EBITDA Margin Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research PVC sheets segment: This segment registered robust growth of 61% in revenues. EBITDA margin of the segment continued to be stable at 10%. Exhibit 12: PVC sheet growth rebounding Exhibit 13: Stable margins 45 42 90 5 18 38 15 36 4 13 15 32 24 60 10 10 12 27 3 8 (Rs cr) (Rs cr) 19 30 (%) 9 (%) 18 2 6 0 9 1 3 0 (30) 0 0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Revenue % YoY EBITDA EBITDA Margin Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Agro products (onions and fruit puree): Total revenues of the segment grew by 9% during the quarter. Revenues of the onion segment increased 23% to Rs26cr, while total volumes increased 43% for the quarter. EBITDA margins contracted marginally due to adverse forex movement. The fruit puree segment recorded flat revenues of Rs53cr (Rs52cr) because of lower availability of mangoes, while total volumes de-grew by 23%. The division’s EBITDA margin came in at 27% (26%). Due to low rainfall last year availability of vegetable and fruits supply has been scarce owing to which the company expects the onion segment to register flat yoy revenues, while the fruits segment is likely to post nominal growth of 10-12% for the year. August 11, 2010 5
  • 6. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 14: Onion segment revenue & EBITDA trend Exhibit 15: Mango segment revenue & EBITDA trend 75 66 90 120 90 104 100 60 60 60 80 66 52 63 45 (Rs cr) (Rs cr) 60 53 30 (%) 30 (%) 30 29 30 26 21 40 0 0 15 20 0 (30) 0 (30) 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 16: Segmental performance (standalone) Division (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg Revenue MIS 374 260 43.9 1302 952 36.8 PVC pipes 173 148 17.0 525 414 27.1 PE Pipes 62 56 12.0 317 334 (5.1) PVC Sheet 38 24 60.6 116 117 (0.6) PC sheets 0 14 (100.0) 37 56 (34.8) Onion 26 21 23.3 146 133 9.7 Fruit 53 52 2.5 285 218 30.3 Total 726 574 26.6 2728 2223 22.7 EBITDA MIS 117 84 38.7 410 283 44.8 PVC pipes 16 14 11.5 45 32 39.5 PE Pipes 6 6 10.5 39 42 (8.1) PVC Sheet 4 2 62.5 13 16 (20.9) PC sheets - 1 - 3 6 (49.2) Onions 6 5 17.0 15 36 (58.0) Fruit 15 14 7.4 57 43 32.2 Total 163 126 29.4 581 458 26.8 EBITDA (%) MIS 31.3 32.4 31.5 29.8 PVC pipes 9.0 9.4 8.5 7.7 PE Pipes 10.1 10.2 12.2 12.6 PVC Sheet 10.3 10.2 10.8 13.6 PC sheets* - 8.8 8.7 11.2 Onions 21.2 22.4 10.4 27.1 Fruit 27.3 26.1 19.9 19.6 Total 22.4 21.9 21.3 20.6 Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: * division discontinued August 11, 2010 6
  • 7. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Investment Arguments Opportunity abound in MIS JISL is one of the pioneers in introducing micro irrigation systems (MIS) in India. India has total arable land of 140 million hectares (mn ha), of that over 71mn ha is rain-fed, while the immediate MI potential that can be created through major and medium irrigation projects is 69mn ha. However, around 4mn ha is covered under sprinkler and drip irrigation (around 7% of the total MIS potential), which signifies there exists huge scope for further MIS in India. JISL is the leading player among the organised players accounting for a sizeable 55% market share of the MIS market. Pipes – Unfolding opportunity JISL had traditionally been in the PVC pipes business, which were primarily used by the farmers for irrigation purposes and some portion was utilised for the drinking water supply schemes. Over the past few years however, this segment has evolved with different applications for the pipes ranging from being used in the city gas distribution networks, for sewage and waste disposal, telecom cables, etc. Some of JISL’s esteemed clients include leading telecom and gas companies and municipal corporations of the various cities. With the rise in urban population, JISL’s pipe segment is well-placed to capitalise on the upcoming opportunity. Agro products (dehydrated vegetables and fruit processing) – A budding story Food processing, which was a small part of JISL’s business, is now quite a sizable business having taken off on the back of the company’s organic as well as inorganic initiatives. Although the Indian market is not yet ripe for dehydrated vegetables, the overseas market offers huge opportunities for organised players like JISL. Domestically, the industry is fragmented and unorganised, which supplies semi-finished products in crude form to the European or US buyers, who further process it into finished products. Since the domestic market is still evolving, JISL has focused primarily on the overseas market. India is the second largest producer of fruits after China. Although, India accounts for around 10% of the total global fruits production, fruit processing has been limited to a mere 2% of production. JISL is one of successful food processing companies in India to take advantage of the same. The domestic fruit juice and nectar business is growing at a fast pace further offering good potential for JISL. Outlook and Valuation Going ahead, we believe that the MIS segment will continue to witness healthy growth, as the central government focuses on increasing farm output to tackle the long-term food security issue, along with increasing the farmers’ income. We expect the segment to continue to grow between 40% over the next two years. In the case of the PE pipes segment, a revival in demand is visible. We have marginally revised our FY2012E estimates to factor in: a) marginally weak FY2010 performance of subsidiaries, (b) likely nominal growth in agro product division, (c) better revenue visibility and likely higher profitability in the MIS and pipe divisions, and (d) better working capital management. August 11, 2010 7
  • 8. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 17: Change in estimate Old New % chg Parameters (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Sales 4,478 5,641 4,209 5,329 (6.0) (5.5) EBITDA 784 987 758 991 (3.4) 0.4 EBITDA margin (%) 17.5 17.5 18.0 18.6 Adj PAT 286 404 290 433 1.3 7.1 Adj FDEPS 37.6 53.1 38.0 56.9 1.3 7.1 Source: Company, Angel Research At Rs1,230, the stock is trading at 22x FY2012E Adj. FDEPS of Rs56.8. In the recent past, the stock witnessed a steep run up on account of which we recommend a Neutral on the stock. Exhibit 18: Key Assumptions FY11E FY12E Sale growth (%) -MIS 40 40 -PVC Pipes 20 16 -PE Pipes 15 12 -PVC Sheet 15 13 -Onion 1 18 -Fruit 10 18 Standalone 25 29 Subsidiary contri 20 20 EBITDA margin (%) 18.0 18.6 Tax rate (%) 33 33 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 19: One-year forward P/E band 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 Rs 600 400 200 0 Oct-09 Feb-09 Sep-07 Sep-08 May-08 Jun-09 Dec-06 Jan-08 Apr-06 Aug-06 Apr-07 Jul-10 Mar-10 Price 15x 19x 23x 27x 31x Source: C-line, Angel Research August 11, 2010 8
  • 9. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 20: JISL v/s Sensex – One-year absolute returns 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-09 Jul-10 Aug-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 Mar-10 Feb-10 Sep-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Nov-09 May-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 Jan-10 Jan-10 JISL SENSEX Source: C-line, Angel Research August 11, 2010 9
  • 10. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement Y/E March (Rs cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Total operating income 1,392 2,216 2,870 3,435 4,209 5,329 % chg 65.2 59.2 29.5 19.7 22.5 26.6 Total Expenditure 1,205 1,870 2,363 2,836 3,452 4,338 Net Raw Materials 781 1,177 1,551 1,893 2,273 2,878 Other Mfg costs 129 176 229 256 307 373 Personnel 125 245 293 351 421 533 Other 170 272 290 335 450 554 EBITDA 187 346 507 599 758 991 % chg 45.7 84.4 46.8 18.0 26.5 30.8 (% of Net Sales) 13.5 15.6 17.7 17.4 18.0 18.6 Depreciation& Amortisation 43 56 68 102 123 142 EBIT 144 290 439 497 635 849 % chg 73.4 101.1 51.5 13.2 27.8 33.7 (% of Net Sales) 10.3 13.1 15.3 14.5 15.1 15.9 Interest & other Charges 77 137 185 218 204 204 Other Income 33 37 1 1 1 1 (% of PBT) 33 19 0 0 0 0 Recurring PBT 100 190 255 280 432 646 % chg 72.1 89.1 34.3 9.8 54.4 49.3 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (1) (7) (60) 87 - - PBT (reported) 99 183 195 367 432 646 Tax 20 54 66 120 143 213 (% of PBT) 20.3 29.6 33.7 32.8 33.0 33.0 PAT (reported) 79 129 129 247 290 433 Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) - 3 4 1 (1) (1) Prior period items 0 (2) 0 - - - PAT after MI (reported) 79 126 126 245 290 434 ADJ. PAT 80 137 186 202 290 433 % chg 39.1 70.2 35.6 8.7 43.6 49.3 (% of Net Sales) 5.8 6.2 6.5 5.9 6.9 8.1 Basic EPS (Rs) 13 19 26 27 38 57 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 13 19 26 27 38 57 % chg 31.4 45.9 35.0 3.5 43.6 49.3 August 11, 2010 10
  • 11. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Balance Sheet Statement Y/E March (Rs cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 62 72 72 76 76 76 Preference Capital 89 89 45 2 - - Reserves& Surplus 264 713 780 1,062 1,299 1,663 Shareholders Funds 414 873 897 1,140 1,375 1,739 Minority Interest 10 65 70 72 71 70 Total Loans 859 1,276 1,817 1,580 1,675 1,591 Deferred Tax Liability - 11 71 103 73 - Total Liabilities 1,284 2,225 2,855 2,895 3,194 3,400 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 862 1,262 1,750 2,160 2,560 2,816 Less: Acc. Depreciation 282 486 581 683 805 948 Net Block 580 776 1,170 1,478 1,755 1,868 Capital Work-in-Progress 79 120 121 121 128 141 Goodwill 66 120 167 167 167 167 Investments 20 60 20 20 20 20 Current Assets 999 1,873 2,312 2,226 2,494 2,950 Cash 44 104 117 133 130 162 Loans & Advances 116 287 320 337 382 420 Other 838 1,483 1,874 1,755 1,981 2,368 Current liabilities 514 741 964 1,146 1,399 1,780 Net Current Assets 484 1,132 1,348 1,080 1,095 1,170 Mis. Exp. & Others 54 16 30 30 30 33 Total Assets 1,284 2,225 2,855 2,895 3,194 3,400 August 11, 2010 11
  • 12. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Cash Flow Statement Y/E March (Rs cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E Profit before tax 104 194 199 367 432 646 Depreciation 41 56 68 102 123 142 Change in Working Capital (120) (488) (18) 528 155 82 Less: Other income - - - - - - Direct taxes paid (9) (23) (22) (120) (143) (213) Cash Flow from Operations 16 (261) 227 877 568 657 (Inc.) / Dec. in Fixed Assets (256) (291) (464) (410) (407) (269) (Inc.) / Dec. in Investments (64) (51) (6) - - 0 Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and advances (320) (343) (470) (410) (407) (269) Other income - - - - - - Cash Flow from Investing (320) (343) (470) (410) (407) (269) Issue of Equity 42 174 (43) 43 (3) - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 159 596 530 (237) 95 (84) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (26) (20) (23) (39) (52) (69) Others (66) (136) (183) (218) (204) (204) Cash Flow from Financing 109 615 281 (451) (163) (357) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (195) 11 38 16 (3) 31 Opening Cash balances 239 56 67 117 133 130 Closing Cash balances 44 67 105 133 130 162 August 11, 2010 12
  • 13. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 94.5 64.8 48.0 46.4 32.3 21.6 P/CEPS 61.4 46.0 35.1 30.8 22.7 16.3 P/BV 23.3 11.3 10.4 8.2 6.8 5.4 Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 EV/Sales 6.0 4.5 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.0 EV/EBITDA 44.9 29.0 20.9 18.0 14.4 10.9 EV / Total Assets 6.6 4.5 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 13.4 20.5 25.7 27.2 38.1 56.9 EPS (fully diluted) 13.0 19.0 25.6 26.5 38.1 56.9 Cash EPS 20.0 26.7 35.1 39.9 54.2 75.6 DPS 2.1 3.0 2.5 4.5 6.0 8.0 Book Value 52.7 108.9 117.7 149.7 180.9 228.7 Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 10.3 13.1 15.3 14.5 15.1 15.9 Tax retention ratio 79.7 70.4 66.3 67.2 67.0 67.0 Asset turnover (x) 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 ROIC (Post-tax) 12.5 13.7 13.4 13.6 16.2 20.0 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 7.8 8.8 7.8 8.5 8.4 8.4 Leverage (x) 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 Operating ROE 20.6 21.4 22.6 21.3 25.6 31.0 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 12.5 16.5 17.3 17.3 20.9 25.7 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 15.6 19.5 20.3 20.2 24.2 29.8 ROE 21.9 21.3 21.0 19.8 23.0 27.8 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 Inventory / Sales (days) 97 105 114 100 96 93 Receivables (days) 94 108 110 100 90 85 Payables (days) 96 89 86 92 93 93 Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) 97.5 128.4 153.0 128.0 96.9 82.3 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 2.0 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.1 0.8 Net debt to EBITDA 4.3 3.4 3.3 2.4 2.0 1.4 Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.3 3.1 4.2 August 11, 2010 13
  • 14. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Jain Irrigation 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) August 11, 2010 14