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JISL
1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | Agri-Business
August 11, 2010
Jain Irrigation Systems NEUTRAL
CMP Rs1,230
Performance Highlights Target Price -
Parameter (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % yoy Angel Est % Diff Investment Period -
Revenue 726 573 27 715 2
EBITDA 166 126 31 158 5
Stock Info
EBITDA margin (%) 23 22 0 22 - Sector Agri-Business
Adj. PAT 64 42 52 70 (9) Market Cap (Rs cr) 9,375
Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 0.4663
52 Week High / Low 1323/649
Jain Irrigation Systems (JISL) reported in-line 1QFY2011 results. Total revenues
Avg. Daily Volume 41270
for the quarter grew 27% to Rs726cr, 2% ahead of our estimate. EBITDA margin
Face Value (Rs) 10
at 23% came in as a positive surprise. Adjusted PAT for the quarter grew 52% to
Rs64cr, 9% below our estimate. We recommend a Neutral on the stock. BSE Sensex 18,070
Nifty 5,421
Micro irrigation system segment growth ahead of estimates: JISL’s 1QFY2011
Reuters Code JAIR.BO
results were in line our expectations. However, segment-wise there were few
Bloomberg Code JI@IN
surprises and disappointments. The MIS and PVC sheet segments registered
robust growth of 44% and 61% respectively, during the quarter. The PVC pipes
posted 17% growth, while the fruits segments recorded mere 2.5% yoy growth
Shareholding Pattern (%)
during the quarter. EBITDA margin came in at an all-time high of 23% on the
back of higher contribution from the high-margin MIS segment. Reported PAT Promoters 30.8
stood at Rs53cr. Adjusted for forex losses, PAT for the quarter grew 52% yoy to MF / Banks / Indian Fls 3.2
Rs64cr (Rs42cr). FII / NRIs / OCBs 56.0
Indian Public / Others 10.0
Outlook and Valuation: Going ahead, we expect the MIS segment to register
healthy 40% yoy growth over the next two years with the government continuing to
focus on agriculture. The PVC pipes segment is also expected to post decent
performance, with a revival in demand is visible. At Rs1,230, the stock is trading Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
at fair valuations of 22x FY2012E adj. FDEPS of Rs56.8. Hence, we recommend a Sensex 5.4 19.9 21.5
Neutral on the stock. JISL 25.7 71.7 148.4
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 2,870 3,435 4,205 5,324
% chg 29.5 19.7 22.4 26.6
Net Profit 186 202 289 432
% chg 35.6 8.7 43.4 49.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.7 17.4 18.0 18.6
FDEPS (Rs) 25.6 26.5 38.0 56.8
P/E (x) 48.0 46.4 32.3 21.6
P/BV (x) 10.4 8.2 6.8 5.4
RoE (%) 21.0 19.8 23.0 27.8
RoACE (%) 17.3 17.3 20.8 25.7
Sageraj Bariya
EV/Sales (x) 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.0
022-40403800 Extn:346
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.9 18.0 14.4 10.9
sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
3. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update
Robust revenue growth continues: JISL maintained its strong revenue growth
momentum registering 27% yoy growth in 1QFY2011 to Rs726cr (Rs573cr). This
robust performance on the top-line front came on the back of better-than-
estimated performance by the MIS, PVC sheet and onion divisions.
Exhibit 2: Total revenue trend and growth Exhibit 3: Segmental growth trend
1,200 50 75
1,000 60
40
800 45
(Rs cr)
30
(%)
30
600
(%)
20 15
400
0
200 10
-15
- -
-30
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
MIS Pipes Sheet Agro
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Total Revenue % YoY
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Changes in revenue mix continue: Part of the re-jig has been due to the
discontinuation of PC sheet division that contributed 3% of revenues and 1% to
EBITDA in FY2009. Revenue contribution from the high-margin MIS segment
increased by 700bp to 52% (45%) in 1QFY2011, while contribution from the PVC
and PE pipes segments dropped by 400bp and 100bp, to 32% (36%) and 5%
(6%), respectively.
Exhibit 4: Revenue mix - 1QFY2010 Exhibit 5: Revenue mix - 1QFY2011
13% 11%
5%
6%
45%
52%
32%
36%
MIS Pipes Sheet Agro MIS Pipes Sheet Agro
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Robust growth in MIS segment: JISL’s key revenue and EBITDA contributing
segment, MIS, posted robust yoy growth of 44% (45% volume growth) for
1QFY2011, increasing its contribution to 52% of sales (50% - 4QFY2010, 47% in
3QFY2010 and 2QFY2010, and 45% - 1QFY2010). North India and Andhra
Pradesh were the fastest growing regions for the company registering growth of
1.7x and 1.4x, respectively. The other key states that contributed to growth were
Maharashtra (64%), Gujarat (75%), Karnataka (37%) and Rajasthan (40%). EBITDA
margins of the segment fell marginally during the quarter to 31% due to the
change in product mix in favour of tubing. Management has guided for 40%
revenue growth for FY2011.
August 11, 2010 3
4. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 6: Revenue trend and growth Exhibit 7: EBITDA trend
600 46 50 300 50
44
38
500 40 250 40
33 32 31 32 31
30
400 27 200
30 30
(Rs cr)
(Rs cr)
150
(%)
300
(%)
20 20
200 100
10 50 10
100
0 0 0 0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Revenue % YoY EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
PVC pipes segment continues to grow: For the quarter, the segment posted 17%
yoy growth in top-line (4% volume growth) to Rs173cr led by higher realisation on
higher polymer prices. EBITDA margins of the segment remained stable at 9%.
Exhibit 8: High realisation leads to growth Exhibit 9: Stable margins
18 9 9 10
200 50 9
148 173
160 8 8
40 15 8
150 135
30 12
6
(Rs cr)
(Rs cr)
100 83 20
(%)
9
(%)
4
10 6
50
0 3 2
0 (10) 0 0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Revenue % YoY EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Volatility in PE pipes segment continues: After breaking the declining sales trend in
2QFY2010, the segment reverted on growth path driven by strong demand from
the gas segment (growth of 183%). Segment sales for 1QFY2011 increased 12%
(9% volume growth) to Rs62cr; EBITDA margins came in flat at 10% yoy, though
sequentially it declined by 300bp.
August 11, 2010 4
5. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 10: Sales trend Exhibit 11: EBITDA trend
110 104 100 18 15
14
85 75 15
88 13
72 13
56
62 50 12
66 11
(Rs cr)
(Rs cr)
25 10
(%)
9 10 11
(%)
44
0 6
9
22 (25) 3
0 (50) 0 7
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Revenue % YoY EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
PVC sheets segment: This segment registered robust growth of 61% in revenues.
EBITDA margin of the segment continued to be stable at 10%.
Exhibit 12: PVC sheet growth rebounding Exhibit 13: Stable margins
45 42 90 5 18
38 15
36 4 13 15
32
24 60
10 10 12
27 3
8
(Rs cr)
(Rs cr)
19 30
(%)
9
(%)
18 2
6
0
9 1 3
0 (30) 0 0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Revenue % YoY EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Agro products (onions and fruit puree): Total revenues of the segment grew by 9%
during the quarter. Revenues of the onion segment increased 23% to Rs26cr, while
total volumes increased 43% for the quarter. EBITDA margins contracted
marginally due to adverse forex movement. The fruit puree segment recorded flat
revenues of Rs53cr (Rs52cr) because of lower availability of mangoes, while total
volumes de-grew by 23%. The division’s EBITDA margin came in at 27% (26%).
Due to low rainfall last year availability of vegetable and fruits supply has been
scarce owing to which the company expects the onion segment to register flat yoy
revenues, while the fruits segment is likely to post nominal growth of 10-12% for
the year.
August 11, 2010 5
7. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update
Investment Arguments
Opportunity abound in MIS
JISL is one of the pioneers in introducing micro irrigation systems (MIS) in India.
India has total arable land of 140 million hectares (mn ha), of that over 71mn ha
is rain-fed, while the immediate MI potential that can be created through major
and medium irrigation projects is 69mn ha. However, around 4mn ha is covered
under sprinkler and drip irrigation (around 7% of the total MIS potential), which
signifies there exists huge scope for further MIS in India. JISL is the leading player
among the organised players accounting for a sizeable 55% market share of the
MIS market.
Pipes – Unfolding opportunity
JISL had traditionally been in the PVC pipes business, which were primarily used by
the farmers for irrigation purposes and some portion was utilised for the drinking
water supply schemes. Over the past few years however, this segment has evolved
with different applications for the pipes ranging from being used in the city gas
distribution networks, for sewage and waste disposal, telecom cables, etc. Some of
JISL’s esteemed clients include leading telecom and gas companies and municipal
corporations of the various cities. With the rise in urban population, JISL’s pipe
segment is well-placed to capitalise on the upcoming opportunity.
Agro products (dehydrated vegetables and fruit processing) – A budding story
Food processing, which was a small part of JISL’s business, is now quite a sizable
business having taken off on the back of the company’s organic as well as
inorganic initiatives. Although the Indian market is not yet ripe for dehydrated
vegetables, the overseas market offers huge opportunities for organised players
like JISL. Domestically, the industry is fragmented and unorganised, which supplies
semi-finished products in crude form to the European or US buyers, who further
process it into finished products. Since the domestic market is still evolving, JISL
has focused primarily on the overseas market. India is the second largest producer
of fruits after China. Although, India accounts for around 10% of the total global
fruits production, fruit processing has been limited to a mere 2% of production.
JISL is one of successful food processing companies in India to take advantage of
the same. The domestic fruit juice and nectar business is growing at a fast pace
further offering good potential for JISL.
Outlook and Valuation
Going ahead, we believe that the MIS segment will continue to witness healthy
growth, as the central government focuses on increasing farm output to tackle the
long-term food security issue, along with increasing the farmers’ income. We
expect the segment to continue to grow between 40% over the next two years. In
the case of the PE pipes segment, a revival in demand is visible.
We have marginally revised our FY2012E estimates to factor in: a) marginally
weak FY2010 performance of subsidiaries, (b) likely nominal growth in agro
product division, (c) better revenue visibility and likely higher profitability in the MIS
and pipe divisions, and (d) better working capital management.
August 11, 2010 7
8. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 17: Change in estimate
Old New % chg
Parameters (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
Sales 4,478 5,641 4,209 5,329 (6.0) (5.5)
EBITDA 784 987 758 991 (3.4) 0.4
EBITDA margin (%) 17.5 17.5 18.0 18.6
Adj PAT 286 404 290 433 1.3 7.1
Adj FDEPS 37.6 53.1 38.0 56.9 1.3 7.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
At Rs1,230, the stock is trading at 22x FY2012E Adj. FDEPS of Rs56.8. In the
recent past, the stock witnessed a steep run up on account of which we
recommend a Neutral on the stock.
Exhibit 18: Key Assumptions
FY11E FY12E
Sale growth (%)
-MIS 40 40
-PVC Pipes 20 16
-PE Pipes 15 12
-PVC Sheet 15 13
-Onion 1 18
-Fruit 10 18
Standalone 25 29
Subsidiary contri 20 20
EBITDA margin (%) 18.0 18.6
Tax rate (%) 33 33
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 19: One-year forward P/E band
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
Rs
600
400
200
0
Oct-09
Feb-09
Sep-07
Sep-08
May-08
Jun-09
Dec-06
Jan-08
Apr-06
Aug-06
Apr-07
Jul-10
Mar-10
Price 15x 19x 23x 27x 31x
Source: C-line, Angel Research
August 11, 2010 8
14. Jain Irrigation| 1QFY2011 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Jain Irrigation
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
August 11, 2010 14