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Drivers of change in crop-livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human well-being to 2030
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Drivers of change in crop-livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human well-being to 2030

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Presented by M. Herrero, P.K. Thornton, A. Notenbaert, S. Msangi, S. Wood, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D. Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X. Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott M. Peters and P. Parthasarathy …

Presented by M. Herrero, P.K. Thornton, A. Notenbaert, S. Msangi, S. Wood, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D. Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X. Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott M. Peters and P. Parthasarathy Rao at the Nairobi Forum, ILRI, Nairobi, 21 September 2010

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  • 80% of agricultural production comes from rainfed, only 20% from irrigated, with significant regional variation.
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    • 1. Drivers of change in crop-livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human well-being to 2030 M. Herrero, P.K. Thornton, A. Notenbaert, S. Msangi, S. Wood, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D. Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X. Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott M. Peters and P. Parthasarathy Rao Nairobi Forum Presentation 21 September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi
    • 2. Structure of the presentation
      • Background
      • The problem
      • Some trends
      • The framework
      • Methods
      • Results
      • Next steps
    • 3. What is the problem?
      • Population to reach almost 9 billion over the next quarter of a century
      • Getting richer and urbanised
      • Increased demands for livestock products
      • Lots of changes occurring: climate, economics, technology, resource availability
      • Systems are changing……but
      • … . can the poor benefit from these changes?
      • … . can we change without compromising food security, ecosystems services or livelihoods?
    • 4. W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system An example of the changing nature of livestock systems Courtesy of B. Gerard
    • 5. Some trends – the drivers
    • 6. Human population UNEP 2007
    • 7. Revised demand for livestock products to 2050 Rosegrant et al 2009 Annual per capita consumption Total consumption year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt) Developing 2002 2050 28 44 44 78 137 326 222 585 Developed 2002 2050 78 94 202 216 102 126 265 295
    • 8. Cereal yields Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank 2007
    • 9. Area under cultivation and rates of growth in cereal yields World Bank 2007
    • 10. Poultry and chickens have been increasing the efficiency of conversion of grain to meat Steinfeld et al. 2006
    • 11. More grains are fed to livestock Delgado et al 2003
    • 12. Dependence on green and blue water 2000 80% of agricultural production comes from rainfed areas, significant regional variations exist – CA 2007
    • 13. … and then there’s climate change Thornton et al 2006
    • 14. When it was all holding together… Wood et al. 2005 … it might still do…but we need to target appropriate investments and ‘do the right thing’
    • 15. The right thing? Sustainable intensification!
    • 16. Framework & Methods
    • 17. Framework of the study (adapted from MEA 2005) global local regional actions Indirect Drivers demographic (urbanisation/migration) economic processes (consumption, production, markets, trade) science and technology cultural, social, political, institutional Pressures land use resource extraction biomass competition use of external inputs emissions biodiversity Agro-ecosystems services food production (crops and livestock) fibers, oils, minerals biomass / energy ecosystems services (water, biodiversity, air quality, etc) environmental regulation human well-being food security poverty incomes and employment human health resilience and vulnerability income diversification social and gender equality context specific options / solutions technologies, policies and institutions trends scenarios impacts impacts responses Direct Drivers Volume and pattern of demand Changes in local land use and cover Consumption patterns Water availability Technology adaptation and use Climate change Development context and systems diversity actions actions
    • 18. The IMPACT model
        • Agricultural sector model developed at IFPRI (Rosegrant et al 2005) that represents a partial equilibrium in food.
        • Spatially disaggregated in food production units by region by continent. It is specified as a set of country-level demand and supply equations.
        • Country-level models are linked to the rest of the world through trade.
        • It also links agricultural production to water availability and use and also estimates number of malnourished children
        • IMPACT’s driving variables are: population growth, income growth, agricultural trade, yields of crops and livestock, shifts in diets of humans.
        • Some output variables include: crop area, crop and livestock production, commodity prices, food demand, feed demand, other demand, net trade and food nutritional security.
    • 19. General methodology IFPRI IMPACT model Children malnutrition Food consumption Feed demand Livestock numbers Livestock production Crop production, areas World prices Food production units Sere and Steinfeld Farming systems classification 11 systems Simplification to 4 systems: Agro-pastoral Mixed extensive Mixed intensive others Market access layers LGP Re-sampling and dis-agreggation by system
    • 20. Production systems and their interactions Herrero et al 2010
    • 21. Scenarios
      • Reference scenario: ‘business as usual’
      • Biofuels scenario (higher demand)
      • Irrigation expansion scenario
      • Low meat demand
    • 22. Production Systems
      • Agro-pastoral
        • Low length of growing period and low pop. density
      • Mixed intensive
        • Irrigation and/or, good market access, high population density, some services, high potential
      • Mixed extensive
        • Length of growing period of less than 180 days, but enough for cropping, low population density, poor or average market access
      • Other / Industrial
        • Forest-based, others
    • 23. Main observations
    • 24. Revisiting the importance of mixed systems as providers of agro-ecosystems services and human well-being in the developing World
    • 25. Simplified classification of production systems
    • 26. Globally, most people are (and will be) in mixed crop – livestock systems
    • 27. Globally, most people are (and will be) in mixed crop – livestock systems Based on the UN medium variant projection
    • 28. Food production Mixed systems produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World Most production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, high potential, relatively good market access)
    • 29. Mixed systems in the developing World produce the food of the poor
    • 30. Mixed systems produce significant amounts of milk and meat beef milk lamb Developed countries dominate global milk production, significant exports … but… Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World
    • 31. Mixed intensive systems in the developing World are under significant pressures
      • 2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in Asia
      • 150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by 2030
      • Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry, increasing by 30-40% to 2030
      • Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice
      • Others increasing: maize (East Asia)
      • All in the same land!
      • Severe water constraints in some places
      • Soil fertility problems in others
    • 32. Mixed intensive systems in the developing World are under significant pressures (2) * Baseline scenario Population density* (people/km 2 )  2000 2030 agro-pastoral 8 14 mixed extensive 79 112 mixed intensive 273 371 other 28 41
    • 33. Rates of cereal production diminishing in places due to water and other constraints Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countries Catching up Rates lower than those of population growth
    • 34. … but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates…. Increased consumption Increased incomes … but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc) Some industrialisation….
    • 35. … but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates….(2) Increased consumption Increased incomes … but increased pressure on grains…increase in prices?
    • 36. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009) Grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 human consumption 458 million MT Livestock 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly biofuels 160 million MT
    • 37. Prices of food-feed crops are likely to increase at faster rates than the prices of livestock products (IAASTD 2008) grains livestock products human consumption livestock energy Monogastrics mostly
    • 38.  
    • 39.  
    • 40. In intensive systems, feed shortages for ruminants might increase demand for cereals further. If these end up being fed on grains…this might lead to reduce food consumption of poor people further grains livestock products human consumption livestock energy Monogastrics mostly + ruminants Further increases?
    • 41. ‘ Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk and meat increases India quotes from M Blummel ‘ Stovers transported more than 400 km to be sold’ ‘ Price has doubled in 5 years, now 1/3 (2/3) of grain value of sorghum’ ‘ Farmers paying for stover quality’ Herrero et al. in prep
    • 42. The highest rates of malnutrition relative to population numbers are in agro-pastoral systems followed by the mixed intensive systems … but significant regional variability exists
    • 43. Expansion of biofuels will likely reduce household food consumption in most systems … but significant regional variability exists
    • 44. Some systems may need to de-intensify or stop growing to ensure the sustainability of agro-ecosystems
      • Creation of incentives to protect the environment required
      • Equitable, ‘smart’ schemes for payments for environmental services
      • Need significant efficiency gains (in crops, in livestock, in other sectors)
      • Need to understand better intensification thresholds
    • 45. Important productivity gains could be made in the more extensive mixed rainfed areas
      • Less pressure on the land
      Yield gaps still large Public investment required to reduce transaction costs, increase service provision and improve risk management These systems could turn in ‘providers’ of agro-ecosystems services to other systems (i.e. fodder for the mixed intensive systems) Population density* (people/km 2 )  2000 2030 agro-pastoral 8 14 mixed extensive 79 112 mixed intensive 273 371 other 28 41
    • 46. YIELD GAPS FOR SELECTED COMMODITIES Sources: (1) IAC - (2) ICRISAT - (3) IITA - (4) IFPRI - (5) xxx Freeman et al 2007 Crop Location Mimimum yield on farmers field (t/ha) Maximum Attainable Yield at experimental field (t/ha)* % Millet Sudan Savanna, Nigeria (3) 0.35 2 17.5 Matopo, Zimbabwe (2) 0.22 1.69 13 Sorghum Sudan Savanna, Nigeria (3) 0.5 3.9 12.8 Matopo, Zimbabwe (2) 0.31 1.83 16.9 Cowpea Northern Guinea Savanna (3) 0.05 2.2 2.3 Sudan Savanna, Nigeria (3) 0.05 2.5 2 Dairy (5)   Kenya x y z
    • 47. Crop production in mixed extensive systems growing at faster rates than in intensive ones Catching up Mixed extensive growing at fastest rates
    • 48. Some Conclusions
      • Need to change investment paradigm and also start investing in the systems of the future (not only in the what were the high potential areas)
      • Infrastructure and market development essential
      • Technology could play a key role but we need investment in provision of services
    • 49. Some Conclusions (2)
      • Sustainable intensification: essential to bridge yield gaps
      • Need to think of also bridging efficiency gaps (more crop per drop, etc), especially in resource-constrianed systems
      • Is there a role for payments for ecosystems services as a diversification option for smallholders
    • 50. Contrasting agricultural development paradigms
      • Land consolidation vs growth of the smallholder sector
        • Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign capital investment)
        • Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor
        • Smallholders: low opportunity cost of labour
        • Do diversified smallholder farms promote more biodiversity and better management of ecosystems services?
    • 51. Contrasting agricultural development paradigms
      • Land consolidation vs growth of the smallholder sector
        • More diversified systems = Risk management
        • If smallholders where to disappear in places, are there sectors that can absorb the idling population?
        • Smallholder sector largely fragmented: who are the actors required for their fast development?
    • 52. Contrasting agricultural development paradigms
      • How much land is available for agricultural expansion?
        • Widely different estimates in the literature (300 – 800 million hectares)
        • What types of land are suitable? Rangeland vs forest? Opportunity costs?
        • What kinds of incentives will be required to develop them?
        • Can their development be pro-poor?
        • What is the magnitude of the investment required?
    • 53. Thank you!