Presented by M. Herrero, P.K. Thornton, A. Notenbaert, S. Msangi, S. Wood, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D. Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X. Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott M. Peters and P. Parthasarathy Rao at the Nairobi Forum, ILRI, Nairobi, 21 September 2010

1. Drivers of change in crop-livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human well-being to 2030 M. Herrero, P.K. Thornton, A. Notenbaert, S. Msangi, S. Wood, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D. Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X. Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott M. Peters and P. Parthasarathy Rao Nairobi Forum Presentation 21 September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi

4. W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system An example of the changing nature of livestock systems Courtesy of B. Gerard

5. Some trends – the drivers

6. Human population UNEP 2007

7. Revised demand for livestock products to 2050 Rosegrant et al 2009 Annual per capita consumption Total consumption year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt) Developing 2002 2050 28 44 44 78 137 326 222 585 Developed 2002 2050 78 94 202 216 102 126 265 295

8. Cereal yields Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank 2007

9. Area under cultivation and rates of growth in cereal yields World Bank 2007

10. Poultry and chickens have been increasing the efficiency of conversion of grain to meat Steinfeld et al. 2006

11. More grains are fed to livestock Delgado et al 2003

12. Dependence on green and blue water 2000 80% of agricultural production comes from rainfed areas, significant regional variations exist – CA 2007

13. … and then there’s climate change Thornton et al 2006

14. When it was all holding together… Wood et al. 2005 … it might still do…but we need to target appropriate investments and ‘do the right thing’

15. The right thing? Sustainable intensification!

16. Framework & Methods

17. Framework of the study (adapted from MEA 2005) global local regional actions Indirect Drivers demographic (urbanisation/migration) economic processes (consumption, production, markets, trade) science and technology cultural, social, political, institutional Pressures land use resource extraction biomass competition use of external inputs emissions biodiversity Agro-ecosystems services food production (crops and livestock) fibers, oils, minerals biomass / energy ecosystems services (water, biodiversity, air quality, etc) environmental regulation human well-being food security poverty incomes and employment human health resilience and vulnerability income diversification social and gender equality context specific options / solutions technologies, policies and institutions trends scenarios impacts impacts responses Direct Drivers Volume and pattern of demand Changes in local land use and cover Consumption patterns Water availability Technology adaptation and use Climate change Development context and systems diversity actions actions

19. General methodology IFPRI IMPACT model Children malnutrition Food consumption Feed demand Livestock numbers Livestock production Crop production, areas World prices Food production units Sere and Steinfeld Farming systems classification 11 systems Simplification to 4 systems: Agro-pastoral Mixed extensive Mixed intensive others Market access layers LGP Re-sampling and dis-agreggation by system

20. Production systems and their interactions Herrero et al 2010

23. Main observations

24. Revisiting the importance of mixed systems as providers of agro-ecosystems services and human well-being in the developing World

25. Simplified classification of production systems

26. Globally, most people are (and will be) in mixed crop – livestock systems

27. Globally, most people are (and will be) in mixed crop – livestock systems Based on the UN medium variant projection

28. Food production Mixed systems produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World Most production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, high potential, relatively good market access)

29. Mixed systems in the developing World produce the food of the poor

30. Mixed systems produce significant amounts of milk and meat beef milk lamb Developed countries dominate global milk production, significant exports … but… Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World

32. Mixed intensive systems in the developing World are under significant pressures (2) * Baseline scenario Population density* (people/km 2 ) 2000 2030 agro-pastoral 8 14 mixed extensive 79 112 mixed intensive 273 371 other 28 41

33. Rates of cereal production diminishing in places due to water and other constraints Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countries Catching up Rates lower than those of population growth

34. … but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates…. Increased consumption Increased incomes … but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc) Some industrialisation….

35. … but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates….(2) Increased consumption Increased incomes … but increased pressure on grains…increase in prices?

36. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009) Grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 human consumption 458 million MT Livestock 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly biofuels 160 million MT

37. Prices of food-feed crops are likely to increase at faster rates than the prices of livestock products (IAASTD 2008) grains livestock products human consumption livestock energy Monogastrics mostly

40. In intensive systems, feed shortages for ruminants might increase demand for cereals further. If these end up being fed on grains…this might lead to reduce food consumption of poor people further grains livestock products human consumption livestock energy Monogastrics mostly + ruminants Further increases?

41. ‘ Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk and meat increases India quotes from M Blummel ‘ Stovers transported more than 400 km to be sold’ ‘ Price has doubled in 5 years, now 1/3 (2/3) of grain value of sorghum’ ‘ Farmers paying for stover quality’ Herrero et al. in prep

42. The highest rates of malnutrition relative to population numbers are in agro-pastoral systems followed by the mixed intensive systems … but significant regional variability exists

43. Expansion of biofuels will likely reduce household food consumption in most systems … but significant regional variability exists

46. YIELD GAPS FOR SELECTED COMMODITIES Sources: (1) IAC - (2) ICRISAT - (3) IITA - (4) IFPRI - (5) xxx Freeman et al 2007 Crop Location Mimimum yield on farmers field (t/ha) Maximum Attainable Yield at experimental field (t/ha)* % Millet Sudan Savanna, Nigeria (3) 0.35 2 17.5 Matopo, Zimbabwe (2) 0.22 1.69 13 Sorghum Sudan Savanna, Nigeria (3) 0.5 3.9 12.8 Matopo, Zimbabwe (2) 0.31 1.83 16.9 Cowpea Northern Guinea Savanna (3) 0.05 2.2 2.3 Sudan Savanna, Nigeria (3) 0.05 2.5 2 Dairy (5) Kenya x y z

47. Crop production in mixed extensive systems growing at faster rates than in intensive ones Catching up Mixed extensive growing at fastest rates

53. Thank you!