Livestock and GHG emissions: <br />mitigation options and trade-offs<br />Mario Herrero and Philip K. Thornton<br />CCAFS ...
Structure of the presentation<br /><ul><li>Background
Livestock and livelihoods
Livestock and GHG
Estimates
Key principles
Mitigation options
Researchable issues
Conclusions</li></li></ul><li>General context<br />Population to reach almost 9 billion over the next quarter of a century...
Revised demand for livestock products to 2050<br />Rosegrant et al 2009<br />
An example of the changing nature of livestock systems<br />Can we influence the next transition for the benefit of societ...
Key concerns for the future<br /><ul><li>How to achieve food security
How to maintain livelihoods
Protection and maintenance of ecosystems services
Economic growth
Reducing the environmental impacts for the livestock sector</li></li></ul><li>Livestock and livelihoods<br />
Livestock and livelihoods (1)<br /><ul><li>Livestock systems occupy 26% or the global land area (Reid et al 2008)
A significant global asset: value of at least $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock industries) ...
Livestock industries organised in long market chains that employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999)
Livestock key as a risk reduction strategy for vulnerable communities (Freeman et al 2007)
Important providers of nutrients and traction for growing crops in smallholder systems (at least 60% of the global croppin...
Livestock and livelihoods (2)<br />At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on livestock<br />Thornton et al. 2002<...
Livestock – high value products<br />Milk has the highest value of production of all agricultural commodities (FAOSTAT 200...
Food production<br />Mixed systems in the developing World produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World <br />Herrero et...
Livestock and livelihoods (3)<br /><ul><li>Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and ...
Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber et al 2007)
Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock produ...
. </li></ul>Herrero et al 2008a<br />
Livestock and GHG emissions<br />
Livestock’s long shadowA food-chain perspective of GHG emissions<br />Emissions from feed production<br />chemical fertili...
Livestock and GHG: 18% of global emissions<br />Chemical N. fert. production<br />On-farm fossil fuel<br />Deforestation<b...
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Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: Mitigation options and trade-offs

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Presentation By Mario Herrero and Philip Thornton at the CCAFS science meeting, Cancun, Mexico, 1-2 December 2010.

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Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: Mitigation options and trade-offs

  1. 1. Livestock and GHG emissions: <br />mitigation options and trade-offs<br />Mario Herrero and Philip K. Thornton<br />CCAFS Science meeting<br />December 1st-2nd , 2010 | Cancun, Mexico<br />
  2. 2. Structure of the presentation<br /><ul><li>Background
  3. 3. Livestock and livelihoods
  4. 4. Livestock and GHG
  5. 5. Estimates
  6. 6. Key principles
  7. 7. Mitigation options
  8. 8. Researchable issues
  9. 9. Conclusions</li></li></ul><li>General context<br />Population to reach almost 9 billion over the next quarter of a century<br />Getting richer and urbanised<br />Increased demands for livestock products<br />Lots of changes occurring: climate, economics, technology, resource availability, intensification<br />Systems are changing……<br />
  10. 10. Revised demand for livestock products to 2050<br />Rosegrant et al 2009<br />
  11. 11. An example of the changing nature of livestock systems<br />Can we influence the next transition for the benefit of society and the environment?<br />2004 – crop-livestock system<br />W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system<br />
  12. 12. Key concerns for the future<br /><ul><li>How to achieve food security
  13. 13. How to maintain livelihoods
  14. 14. Protection and maintenance of ecosystems services
  15. 15. Economic growth
  16. 16. Reducing the environmental impacts for the livestock sector</li></li></ul><li>Livestock and livelihoods<br />
  17. 17. Livestock and livelihoods (1)<br /><ul><li>Livestock systems occupy 26% or the global land area (Reid et al 2008)
  18. 18. A significant global asset: value of at least $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008)
  19. 19. Livestock industries organised in long market chains that employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999)
  20. 20. Livestock key as a risk reduction strategy for vulnerable communities (Freeman et al 2007)
  21. 21. Important providers of nutrients and traction for growing crops in smallholder systems (at least 60% of the global cropping area receives manure applications – Herrero et al 2008a)</li></ul>Herrero et al. (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2009, 1: 111-120)<br />
  22. 22. Livestock and livelihoods (2)<br />At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on livestock<br />Thornton et al. 2002<br />
  23. 23. Livestock – high value products<br />Milk has the highest value of production of all agricultural commodities (FAOSTAT 2008)<br />
  24. 24. Food production<br />Mixed systems in the developing World produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World <br />Herrero et al. Science 327: 822-825<br />
  25. 25. Livestock and livelihoods (3)<br /><ul><li>Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008)
  26. 26. Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber et al 2007)
  27. 27. Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in the developing World
  28. 28. . </li></ul>Herrero et al 2008a<br />
  29. 29. Livestock and GHG emissions<br />
  30. 30. Livestock’s long shadowA food-chain perspective of GHG emissions<br />Emissions from feed production<br />chemical fertilizer fabrication and application<br />on-farm fossil fuel use<br />livestock-related land use changes<br />C release from soils<br />[Savannah burning]<br />Emissions from livestock rearing<br />enteric fermentation<br />animal manure management<br />[respiration by livestock]<br />Post harvest emissions<br />slaughtering and processing<br />international transportation<br />[national transportation]<br />Steinfeld et al 2006<br />
  31. 31. Livestock and GHG: 18% of global emissions<br />Chemical N. fert. production<br />On-farm fossil fuel<br />Deforestation<br />OM release from ag. soils<br />Pasture degradation<br />Processing fossil fuel<br />Transport fossil fuel<br />Enteric fermentation<br />Manure storage / processing<br />N fertilization<br />Legume production<br />Manure storage / processing<br />Manure spreading / dropping<br />Manu indirect emissions<br />N2O<br /> Manure<br />mgt<br />Deforestation<br />CO2<br />Enteric<br />fermentation<br />CH4<br />Prepared by Bonneau, 2008<br />
  32. 32. Mitigation options<br />Reductions in emissions: significant potential!<br />Managing demand for animal products<br />Improved / intensified diets for ruminants<br />Reduction of animal numbers<br />Reduced livestock-induced deforestation<br />Change of animal species<br />Feed additives to reduce enteric fermentation<br />Manure management (feed additives, methane production, regulations for manure disposal)<br />Herrero et al. (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2009, 1: 111-120)<br />
  33. 33. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands(IAASTD 2009)<br />Grains<br />1048 million tonnes more to 2050<br />human<br />consumption<br />458 million MT<br />Livestock<br />430 million MT<br />Monogastrics mostly<br />biofuels<br />160 million MT<br />
  34. 34. Changing diets Consuming less meat or different types of meat could lower GHG emissions<br />Stehfest et al. 2009. Climatic Change <br />
  35. 35. 200<br />180<br />160<br />140<br />120<br />kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein<br />100<br />80<br />60<br />40<br />20<br />0<br />Pig<br />Poultry<br />Beef<br />Milk<br />Eggs<br />Range of GHG intensities for commodities in OECD-countries<br />Source: DeVries & DeBoer(2009)<br />
  36. 36. Changing diets Consuming less meat or different types of meat could lower GHG emissions<br />Less land needed<br />....but social and economic impacts?<br />....displacement of people?<br />Stehfest et al. 2009. Climatic Change <br />
  37. 37. Mitigation 101 – intensification is essentialThe better we feed cows the less methane per kg of milk they produce<br />Chad - pastoral<br />India mixed<br />US/Europe - mixed<br />Herrero et al (forthcoming)<br />
  38. 38. Mitigation options – intensifying diets<br />Thornton and Herrero 2010 (PNAS 107, 19667-19672)<br />
  39. 39. 23<br />Systems shifts - some results from the GLOBIOM model (IIASA-ILRI)<br />Simulation horizon:2020<br />STICKY livestock production systems<br />- min 75% of LPS of 2000 following production trajectory to 2020<br />FLEXIBLE livestock production systems<br />- min 25% of LPS of 2000 still in the same place in 2020<br />- intensifing mixed crop livestock systems<br />Havlik, Herrero, Obersteiner et al, COP15, 2009<br />
  40. 40. 24<br />STICKY xFLEXIBLE<br />IF system change possible  shift to intensive production systems<br />Havlik, Herrero, Obersteiner et al, COP15, 2009<br />
  41. 41. 25<br />STICKY xFLEXIBLE<br />Adjustments in production systems help to keep commodity prices low<br />Havlik, Herrero, Obersteiner et al, COP15, 2009<br />
  42. 42. 26<br />STICKY xFLEXIBLE<br />RED through livestock does not have negative effect on non-CO2 emissions.<br />Havlik, Herrero, Obersteiner et al, COP15, 2009<br />
  43. 43. Can we untap the potential for carbon sequestration in rangeland systems?<br />Largest land use system<br />Potentially a large C sink<br />Could be an important income diversification source<br />Difficulties in:<br />Measuring and monitoring C stocks<br />Establishment of payment schemes<br />Dealing with mobile pastoralists<br />Potential for carbon<br />sequestration in rangelands<br />(Conant and Paustian 2002)<br />
  44. 44. Some conclusions<br />Complex issue: livestock’s livelihood benefits and environmental impacts largely dependent on location, systems, intensification level and others<br />Reducing livestock’s impact on the environment requires the fundamental recognition that societal benefits need to be met at the same time as the environmental ones <br /> (current studies: too much focus on the environment, less so on livelihoods)<br />Understanding trade-offs requires a ‘multi-currency’ approach: energy, emissions, water, nutrients, incomes, etc along value chains (life cycles)<br />Well placed to make global inventories<br />
  45. 45. Some key trade-offs<br />Biomass uses for food, feed, fuel and fertiliser<br />Intensifying systems to increase production efficiency while balancing environmental protection and providing livelihoods for poor people<br />Cheap food vs sustainable food for consumers?<br />Herrero et al 2009 Current Op EnvSust<br />
  46. 46. Researchable issues<br />Social and economic impacts of mitigation<br />More needed on scenarios of consumption<br />Mechanisms for implementing mitigation schemes (policies: carrots, sticks, institutions, etc): need to increase adoption rates!<br />What is sustainable intensification? Limits?<br />Support on inventory development for developing countries<br />Need to refine LCA analyses<br />
  47. 47. Thank you!<br />

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