African animal agriculture:
Grasping opportunities as a great
livestock transition gets under way
6th All Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture
Nairobi, Kenya, 27 – 30 October 2014
Jimmy Smith  Director General  ILRI

Key messages
• Fast-rising demand in Africa for more milk, meat and eggs
is driving great changes in the continent’s livestock sector
• This growing demand will be met − one way or the other.
We need to work now to influence how it is met.
• The growth presents smallholders, who provide most of
these commodities today, with big new opportunities
• The growth also presents Africa with many big and
new equity, health and environmental challenges
• Only enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions
will ensure that Africa’s livestock systems transition to help,
not hurt, broad growth and human and environmental health

Rising demand for
meat, milk and eggs
is a global
phenomenon . . .
. . . but demand is greatest in
South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

In 2012, cattle meat and milk were 2 of the top 4
highest value agricultural commodities in Africa

Huge increases over 2005/7 amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050
From 2bn−3bn
tonnes cereals each year
From 664m−1bn
tonnes dairy each year
From 258m−460m
tonnes meat each year

In terms of meat, milk and eggs,
developing countries are where all the action is

Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030
Million metric tonnes
developing
developed
FAO 2006

To 2050, demand for meat & dairy in SS Africa &
South Asia outstrips that for cereals & roots/tubers

Change in global and regional demand for food:
Livestock and other commodities
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
developed developing SSA SA
% change 2005/07 to 2050
cereals
root/tuber
meat
dairy
Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012

In the next 35 years,
production of milk,
poultry meat & eggs
and ruminant meat will
skyrocket in
Africa/Middle East

% increase in production of livestock products:
2000–2050
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Raw milk Monogastric
meat & eggs
Ruminant meat
Europe
Latin America
Africa/Middle East
%
Herrero et al. 2014

What’s special about
African smallholder livestock food production?
• 90% of animal products are
produced and consumed
in the same country or region
• Most are produced by smallholders
• Over 70% of livestock products
are sold ‘informally’
• 500 million smallholders produce
80% of the developing world’s food
• 43% of the agricultural
workforce is female

What’s special about
African mixed crop-livestock production systems?
• Mixed systems are a big
source of ruminant meat
in 2000 and 2050
– Europe: 42% (temperate)
– L America: 48% (humid)
– Africa/M East: 38% (arid)
• More than 50% of milk in all
regions is from mixed systems
• Big increases in milk by
2050 continue to be in
mixed systems, esp. in
Africa and M East

What’s special about
African smallholder livestock keepers?
East Africa
• 1 million Kenyan small-holders
keep Africa’s
largest dairy herd
• Ugandans are the world’s
lowest-cost milk producers
• Small- and large-scale
Kenyan poultry and dairy
producers have same levels
of efficiency and profits
IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012

Demand for livestock commodities will be met –
the only question is how
Scenario #1
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock products
Scenario #2
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how
Scenario #3
Africa meets
livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems

Scenario #1: Bad news for Africa’s economies,
employment and small-scale livestock livelihoods
Downsides of importing milk, meat
and eggs to meet Africa’s rising demand:
• A huge import bill
straining foreign exchange
• Little growth of
indigenous livestock
enterprises
• Industrial-scale pollution
in developed countries
• Mass emigration of youth
(and labour) from
developing countries

Scenario #2: Bad news for Africa’s equity gaps,
environments and national economies
Downsides of meeting the rising demand for animal-source
foods mostly via private large-scale industrial production units:
• Relevant know-how is restricted to a few enterprises
• Employment opportunities, esp.
for women and youth, are lost
• Increased demand for feed and water
degrades natural resources
• Industrial-scale livestock production
pollutes the environment and incurs large financial
as well as environmental costs
• The synergies of mixed crop-livestock farming systems
are lost as animal and crop production become separate

Scenario #3: The opportunity is now!
Upsides of using the transition period for transformation:
• The coming livestock transitions and consolidations offer
unprecedented opportunities for millions of African’s to
improve their food production as well as their health,
livelihoods and environments
• But this will not happen without integrated and enabling
technologies, policies, markets and institutions − all provided
at sufficient scale
• Of the world’s 1 billion smallholder livestock producers, some:
﹣1/3 will find alternate livelihoods to livestock
﹣1/3 will succeed at market-oriented livestock livelihoods
﹣1/3 could go either way

AACAA’s 5 themes will shape this livestock transition
The five themes that are the focus
of this year’s AACAA will shape the
future of African animal agriculture
• African smallholder
livestock farming
• African pastoral
herding
• African livestock
marketing
• Livestock futures for
Africa’s youth
• Capacity in African
animal agriculture

African smallholder livestock farming

African pastoral herding

Africa livestock marketing

Livestock futures for Africa’s youth

Capacity in African animal agriculture

Key messages
• Fast-rising demand in Africa for more milk, meat and eggs
is driving great changes in the continent’s livestock sector
• This growing demand will be met − one way or the other.
We need to work now to influence how it is met.
• The growth presents smallholders, who provide most of
these commodities today, with big new opportunities
• The growth also presents Africa with many big and
new equity, health and environmental challenges
• Only enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions
will ensure that Africa’s livestock systems transition to help,
not hurt, broad growth and human and environmental health

Thank you!

Livestock-based options for
economic well-being in Africa
AACAA side event  Tuesday 28 October  14:30−18:00
followed by ILRI-hosted dinner

better lives through livestock
ilri.org
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