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The African livestock sector: A research view of priorities and strategies

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The African livestock sector: A research view of priorities and strategies

  1. 1. The African Livestock Sector A research view of priorities and strategies Jimmy Smith, ILRI Director General 6th Meeting of the Independent Science and Partnership Council Addis Ababa 26−29 September 2012
  2. 2. Outline • Trends and opportunities in the global and developing-country livestock sectors. • Challenges to livestock development in Africa. • Priorities and strategies for livestock research for development.
  3. 3. Trends and opportunities in the global livestock sector
  4. 4. Into the future: Demand-driven ‘livestock revolution’ The 4 billion people who live on less than US$10 a day (primarily in developing countries) represent a food market of about $2.9 trillion per year. (Hammond et al. 2007) Consumption of meat and milk in developing countries is forecast to increase faster than that for any crop product. (IAASTD 2007) Rosegrant et al. 2009
  5. 5. Livestock in developing countries/Africa 70% of the world’s livestock (18.5 billion head) are in developing countries: • 15 billion poultry (70% in Asia) • 1.6 billion shoats (44% in Asia) • 1.2 billion bovines (49% in Asia) • 0.6 billion pigs (84% in Asia) FAO
  6. 6. Ethiopia and its livestock Population 85 million Rural population 80% Agriculture 43% of GDP Livestock 45% of Ag GDP Cattle population 44 million Sheep & goat population 48 million Growing appreciation of livestock sector by government in: •‘Productive’ Ethiopia • Sustainable intensification of mixed systems (increasing productivity, value chain development) •‘Hungry and pastoral’ Ethiopia • Reducing vulnerability (market development, risk mitigation, livelihood diversification)
  7. 7. Livestock keepers in developing countries One billion people earning <$2 a day depend on livestock: • 600 million in South Asia • 300 million in sub-Saharan Africa 0 or no data Density of poor livestock keepers Density of poor ILRI, 2012 livestock keepers
  8. 8. Livestock and livelihoods • 70% of the world’s rural poor rely on livestock for important parts of their livelihoods. • Of the 600 million poor livestock keepers in the world, around two-thirds are rural women. • Over 100 million landless people keep livestock. • For the vulnerable, up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping come from non-market, intangible benefits, mostly insurance and financing. • In the poorest countries, livestock manure comprises over 70% of soil fertility amendments.
  9. 9. Livestock for nutrition • In developing countries, livestock contribute 6−36% of protein and 2−12% of calories. • Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food-insecure people. • Small amounts of animal-source foods have large benefits on child growth and cognition and on pregnancy outcomes. • A small number of countries bear most of the burden of malnutrition (India, Ethiopia, Nigeria−36% burden).
  10. 10. Highest value commodities
  11. 11. Smallholder competitiveness Ruminant production • Underused local feed resources and family labour give small-scale ruminant producers a comparative advantage over larger producers, who buy these. Dairy production • Above-normal profits of 19−28% of revenue are found in three levels of intensification of dairy production systems – each using different production strategies. • Non-market benefits – finance, insurance, manure, traction – add 16−21% on top of cash revenue. • Dairy production across sites in Asia, Africa, South America showed few economies of scale until opportunity costs of labour rose. • Nos. of African smallholders still growing strongly. Small ruminant production • Production still dominated by poor rural livestock keepers, incl. women. • Peri-urban fattening adds value.
  12. 12. Livestock multiplies rural incomes • Rural income multipliers are higher for livestock than for other commodities (3x in sub-Saharan Africa) and higher even than non-agricultural activities.
  13. 13. The livestock challenges ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
  14. 14. Additional food needed 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009) Additional grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 Human Livestock consumption 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly 458 million MT Biofuels 160 million MT
  15. 15. Climate change threats to livestock Projected change (to 2030) in feed availability • Feeds • Heat stress • Water • Diseases • Biodiversity
  16. 16. Livestock and greenhouse gases: 18% of global emissions Production fertilisants N Chemical N. fert. production Energie fossile fuel On-farm fossil ferme Déforestation N2O Deforestation e ur Sol cultivé from ag. soils OM release a n Désertification pâturages Pasture degradation M gt Transformation fuel m Processing fossil Deforestation CO2 Transport fossil fuel Transport Fermentation ruminale Enteric fermentation Effluents,storage / processing Manure stockage/traitement Epandage fertilisants N N fertilization Enteric Production légumineuses Legume production fermentation Effluents,storage / processing Manure stockage/traitement Effluents,spreading / dropping Manure épandage/dépôt Effluents, emission indirecte Manu indirect emissions CH4 Prepared by Bonneau, 2008
  17. 17. Productivity gaps and constraints • Productivity gap estimates: – up to 130% in beef, 430% in milk, even among existing breeds. • Short-term constraints = feed deficits: Typical 50−70% deficits in feed relative to genetic potential and water availability often key constraint. • Longer term constraints = disease: Animal diseases both reduce livestock productivity and kill animals outright: – Trypanosomosis reduces African cattle production by 15%. – Cysticercosis reduces value of African pig production by over 30%. – Other major diseases include > East Coast fever in cattle, > Newcastle disease in poultry > African swine fever in pigs. – These diseases can kill up to 20% of adult animals and many more young animals.
  18. 18. Productivity win-win Improved productivity Chad - pastoral reduces greenhouse gas emissions per unit while increasing livelihood gains and improving India mixed US/Europe - mixed resource efficiency. Herrero et al (forthcoming)
  19. 19. Trade-offs: Environment−livelihoods • Production increases mainly through increased numbers of livestock. • But reducing animal numbers has implications for livelihoods. • Need to produce with smaller environmental footprint. • Opportunities to leverage benefits for soils in livestock-based natural resource management options.
  20. 20. Livestock and human disease # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # ### # # # # # • Animal-source foods are # # # #### # ###### Diseases #### # ### ## # ## # ### ### ## # # ### # # # ## # # Anthrax ## # # # # # # # Avian Influenza # # # ## # # ## # # ## # Botulism # # Bovine TB the biggest contributor # Brucellosis # C. difficile # # Cryptosporidium # # # # Diarrhea # Dysentery to food-borne diseases. # # # # # Foodborne Illness # # # # # # # # # # Gastroenteritis ## # # ### # # # # # # # # # # # Leptospirosis # # # # # # # # # # # Salmonella ## # # # ## # # # # # # ## # Trichinosis # # # ## # ## ## # ## # # # # # Waterborne Illness # # # # • Diseases transmitted # # # # ## ## # ## # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # ## # ## ## # # # # # ## # # # ## # # # # ## # # # # # from livestock and ### ### # Population Density (person per sq km) # # # # ## 0- 5 5 - 10 # 10 - 25 livestock products kill # 25 - 50 # ## # # # 50 - 100 ## # 100 - 250 ## # 250 - 500 # # # ## # ## ## # # # 500 - 1000 # ## # # # # ## # more people each year # # ## 1000 - 2500 # # # # # # # # # # 2500 - 5000 # # # 5000 - 10000 100000 - 250000 # # # # # # # N # than HIV or malaria. 25000 - 50000 # # # # 50000 - 100000 # ## # # # ## • One new human disease 2000 0 2000 4000 Kilometers emerges every 2 months and 20% of these come from livestock.
  21. 21. Growing local markets but mostly informal • Large majority of domestic African livestock products markets are traditional/informal (80−90%). • Domestic markets dominate: Opportunities for exports are limited by SPS and quality standards. • ‘Supermarketization’ threatens smallholder market participation, although smaller impact on fresh foods. – Driving higher standards for quality and food safety. – Changing market structure towards vertical integration, large scale her of production.
  22. 22. Livestock research- for-development strategy for Africa
  23. 23. Targeting livestock R4D to context in Africa • Identify different growth scenarios for livestock systems: • ‘Inclusive growth’ – Where good market access and increasing productivity provide opportunities for continued smallholder participation. – Mostly mixed crop-livestock systems (e.g. East Africa dairy). • ‘Fragile growth’ – Where remoteness, marginal land resources or agro-climatic vulnerability restrict intensification. – Mostly agro-pastoral settings.
  24. 24. Research for ‘inclusive growth’ • Find/develop organizational options for linking farmers (particularly women) to markets (e.g. hubs, innovation platforms). • Mitigate animal and human disease threats: – Reduce zoonotic diseases and increase livestock food safety. – Reduce livestock disease burdens on farms (e.g. East Coast fever, African swine fever). • Improve livestock feeds for rapid gains: – Better use of food-feed crops and planted forages. • Develop and spread livestock breeds that: – Farmers want – Are tailored to local settings, resources. • Develop climate-smart production strategies and build on the capacity of livestock communities to adapt to climate change.
  25. 25. Research for ‘fragile growth’ • Reduce vulnerability, increase resilience and manage climate risk via: – Livestock insurance innovations – Improved early warning systems – More secure access to land and water • Help people diversify their livelihoods through: ­ Payments for environmental services ­ Investment plans for economic growth • Secure livestock assets through: – Improved vaccines and diagnostics • Increase productivity by: – Conserving and improving indigenous breeds – Restoring degraded rangelands – Improving use of feed and water resources
  26. 26. Impact pathways • Change practices – R&D partnerships to bring about uptake of improved technologies and strategies in production and value chains – Demonstrate ‘at scale’ • Influence investment and policy – Jointly generate and communicate evidence of potential impact for investment in livestock and pro-poor policies • Strengthen capacity – Implement joint learning and development with regional and national partners to support capacity for R4D.
  27. 27. Summary • Address complex challenges Wide range of issues to be addressed in R4D for livestock in Africa, with barriers to improving: livestock productivity, health, environments, markets. • Meet technical challenges Better disease control will require long-term investment and research infrastructure. • Enhance livestock markets Take advantage of increasing livestock demand by increasing smallholder participation in growing livestock markets. • Use technologies and institutions Take advantage of increasing response opportunities by applying new technologies and organizational models. • Seize the moment Take advantage of the increasing capacity of our partners and the current interest of investors and decision-makers.
  28. 28. Better lives through livestock ilri.org The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

Editor's Notes

  • DB: title: do we need to link smallholders’ competitiveness so closely to technology? Provision of Value Added is also a driver oof competitiveness. DB: can we point out that we are not vey good at measuring competitiveness. DB: It is worth noting that high costs of grains and other feed ingredients are a significant aspect of smallholder pig competitiveness. This is related to technology but ni a regressive sense. DB:

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