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The global livestock sector: 
Trends and health implications 
Timothy Robinson, 
William Wint, Giulia Conchedda, Giuseppin...
Overview 
• The global livestock sector 
• Links between livestock and health 
• Trends and drivers 
• Mapping livestock d...
The global livestock sector 
• Livestock numbers (FAOSTAT 2012) 
• 1.8 billion cattle and buffalo 
• 2.5 billion sheep and...
The global livestock sector 
Health and 
nutrition 
Poverty 
and 
growth 
Climate and 
natural 
resource use 
Livestock 
p...
Links between livestock and health 
• Poverty 
• Poor people are less healthy 
• Livestock contribute to livelihoods and r...
Livelihoods and resilience 
• Value of livestock sector c. $1.4 trillion 
• Account for 40% of agricultural GDP 
• Employs...
Diseases related to livestock farming 
• More than 2 billion are sickened each year from 
the food they eat 
• Millions mo...
Nutrition: the double-edged sword 
• 17% of calories and 26% of protein 
• Valuable micronutrients to the poor 
• We live ...
Livestock’s long shadow 
• Land degradation 
• Sector accounts for 30% of the land surface 
• 70% of all agricultural land...
Livestock Systems - Environment 
➜ ADAPTATION 
➜ Capacity to respond 
to changes 
Livestock Systems 
GHG emissions 
Climat...
• 14.5% of all anthropogenic GHG emissions 
• Beef production generates 6 times more GHG emissions per unit of protein 
So...
The global livestock sector 
Health and 
nutrition 
Poverty 
and 
growth 
Climate and 
natural 
resource use 
Livestock 
p...
Surface temperature projections 
Source: IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report
World population projection (UN 2012) 
Source: Gerland et al. 2014 
Year 
Total population (billions) 
7 Billion 
9.5 Bill...
Continental population projection 
Source: Gerland et al. 2014 
Year 
Total population (billions)
Urbanisation 
Projections 
90,000 
80,000 
70,000 
60,000 
50,000 
40,000 
30,000 
20,000 
10,000 
- 
Human population in ...
GDP projections 
Year 
Gross Domestic Product (US$ Bn)
Drivers of change 
140 
120 
100 
80 
60 
40 
20 
0 
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 
Per cap...
Livestock to 2030 – demand growth 
REGION 
Beef Milk Mutton Pork Poultry Eggs 
Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop....
Livestock to 2030 – demand growth 
Meat consumption is increasing faster in developing 
countries than in developed countr...
Disaggregating demand growth 
Growth in poultry 
consumption in China to 2030 
Demand growth attributable 
to population g...
Implications for production 
• Rural population growth 
→ EXPANSION 
• Urban population growth 
• Increasing wealth 
• Cha...
The changing livestock sector 
• Demographic and social drivers 
• Population: + 32% or 9.6 billion people by 2050 
• Inco...
Livestock distribution and production 
Data collection, cleaning 
and geo-registration 
Livestock distribution 
modelling ...
Livestock distributions 
Source: Robinson et al (2014) 
Pigs 
Chickens 
Ducks 
• Updated sub-national statistics 
• 1km MO...
Cattle distribution (2006) 
Source: Robinson et al. (2014)
Monogastric production systems 
Mapped based on 
rural population 
Difference 
(total – extensive) 
% backyard 
Livestock ...
Chicken systems 
Output / input ratio (log kg-1 stock-1 year-1) 
Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year) 
From World Bank dat...
Chicken systems 
Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year) 
From World Bank data 
Proportion of extensively raised chickens
Chicken systems 
Extensive chicken 
production 
Intensive chicken 
production
Predicting future livestock systems 
Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year) 
From World Bank data 
Proportion of extensively...
H5N1 
HPAI H5N1 risk prediction 
Source: Gilbert et al. (2008)
Rift Valley Fever 
Source: Bett al. (under development)
Trypanosomosis 
Source : Shaw et al. (2014) 
Economic benefits over 20 years 
of trypanosomosis removal 
Photo credit: Sue...
Antimicrobial resistance 
Source: Van Boeckel et al. 
(under development) 
Cattle Chickens Pigs 
Log10 Population Correcti...
Antimicrobial resistance 
Source: Van Boeckel et al. (under development) 
Global antimicrobial use in food animals 
(mg pe...
http://www.livestock.geo-wiki.org
Looking forward 
• Improvements to livestock maps 
• Better disaggregation into production 
systems 
• Better understandin...
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The global livestock sector: Trends and health implications

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Presented by Timothy Robinson, William Wint, Giulia Conchedda, Giuseppina Cinardi, Thomas Van Boeckel, Bernard Bett and Marius Gilbert at the Workshop on Measuring Progress, Biennial Meeting of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (RSTMH), Oxford, 27 September 2014

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The global livestock sector: Trends and health implications

  1. 1. The global livestock sector: Trends and health implications Timothy Robinson, William Wint, Giulia Conchedda, Giuseppina Cinardi, Thomas Van Boeckel, Bernard Bett and Marius Gilbert Biennial meeting of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (RSTMH) "Measuring progress” Oxford, 27 September 2014
  2. 2. Overview • The global livestock sector • Links between livestock and health • Trends and drivers • Mapping livestock distributions and production systems • Applications for targetting and impact assessment • Data dissemination • Outlook for measuring progress
  3. 3. The global livestock sector • Livestock numbers (FAOSTAT 2012) • 1.8 billion cattle and buffalo • 2.5 billion sheep and goats • 1.5 billion pigs • 30.6 billion poultry • Sector accounts for 30% of the land surface • 70% of all agricultural land • 8% of human water use
  4. 4. The global livestock sector Health and nutrition Poverty and growth Climate and natural resource use Livestock production
  5. 5. Links between livestock and health • Poverty • Poor people are less healthy • Livestock contribute to livelihoods and resilience • Economic losses from endemic diseases of production • Nutrition • Positive: Hunger, malnutrition, stunting, cognitive impairment • Negative: Obesity and associated health risks • Diseases • Food-borne diseases • 39% OIE diseases are zoonotic • Aflatoxin poisoning • Antimicrobial resistance • Climate change • Reduced food security • Heat waves, floods and droughts • Changing VBD risks
  6. 6. Livelihoods and resilience • Value of livestock sector c. $1.4 trillion • Account for 40% of agricultural GDP • Employs 1.3 billion people • Provides 17% of calories and 26% of protein, globally • Provides valuable micronutrients to the poor • Provides livelihoods for 800 million poor small-holders • Contribute nutrients and traction for mixed farming • Utilises primary production of no direct value for human consumption • Serves as a bank, and insurance against hard times (e.g. drought) Otte et al. (2013)
  7. 7. Diseases related to livestock farming • More than 2 billion are sickened each year from the food they eat • Millions more die from zoonotic diseases that emerge from, or persist in, agricultural ecosystems • Diseases recently emerged from animals make up 25% of the infectious disease burden in least developed countries and kill one in ten people who live there ➜ We have proven agricultural interventions which can tackle the diseases associated with agriculture ➜ $25 billion invested in zoonotic disease control would bring benefits worth $125 billion (Source: Grace 2012)
  8. 8. Nutrition: the double-edged sword • 17% of calories and 26% of protein • Valuable micronutrients to the poor • We live in a world more than with 800 million hungry and 165 million stunted children .. BUT … • Over one third of all adults across the world – 1.46 billion people – are obese or overweight • Between 1980 and 2008, the numbers of people affected in the developing world more than tripled, from 250 million to 904 million • In high-income countries the numbers increased by 1.7 times over the same period • Diets are changing with income rises in developing countries, shifting from starch to meat, milk, fats and sugar, fruit and vegetables Livestock are key to both sides
  9. 9. Livestock’s long shadow • Land degradation • Sector accounts for 30% of the land surface • 70% of all agricultural land • 20% of world’s pastures are degraded through overgrazing, compaction, and erosion • Anthropogenic GHG emissions • Sector accounts for 18% (±26%) • Land use change - CO2 (32%) • Enteric fermentation - CH4 (25%) • Manure and slurry - N2O (31%) • Water resource depletion/degradation • Sector accounts for 8% of human water use • Most for irrigation of feed-crops • Water pollution (waste, pesticides, etc.) • Biodiversity losses • Livestock threaten 306/825 biomes globally Steinfeld et al. (2006)
  10. 10. Livestock Systems - Environment ➜ ADAPTATION ➜ Capacity to respond to changes Livestock Systems GHG emissions Climate change Carbon sequestration Land use change Pollution Water resource availability Feed availability Nutrient cycling Land degradation Biodiversity Environment ➜ MITIGATION ➜ Climate-smart agriculture
  11. 11. • 14.5% of all anthropogenic GHG emissions • Beef production generates 6 times more GHG emissions per unit of protein Source: Gerber et al. (2013) than pork, chicken and eggs Kilograms of CO2e per kilogram of protein Contribution to climate change
  12. 12. The global livestock sector Health and nutrition Poverty and growth Climate and natural resource use Livestock production Policies and institutional change Economi c growth Trade & marketing Changing diets Energy prices
  13. 13. Surface temperature projections Source: IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report
  14. 14. World population projection (UN 2012) Source: Gerland et al. 2014 Year Total population (billions) 7 Billion 9.5 Billion 11 Billion
  15. 15. Continental population projection Source: Gerland et al. 2014 Year Total population (billions)
  16. 16. Urbanisation Projections 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Human population in thousands Urban Rural
  17. 17. GDP projections Year Gross Domestic Product (US$ Bn)
  18. 18. Drivers of change 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 Per capita GDP (US$ PPP) Per capita meat consumpion (kg/year) USA Japan China India USA Japan China India Per capita GDP (US$ ppp) Per capita meat consumption (kg/year) 2005 Source: FAO 2009
  19. 19. Livestock to 2030 – demand growth REGION Beef Milk Mutton Pork Poultry Eggs Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. East Asia and Pacific 8,798 130% 23,765 132% 1,669 58% 28,075 63% 22,522 143% 10,188 45% China 6,888 132% 15,936 143% 1,537 56% 22,050 54% 14,609 121% 6,810 34% Eastern Europe and C. Asia 290 11% 4,364 15% 204 40% 112 5% 2,310 108% 684 28% Latin America and Caribbean 7,302 58% 39,818 72% 239 54% 4,405 100% 14,434 126% 3,246 78% Middle East and N. Africa 1,929 112% 17,913 111% 1,287 103% 9 52% 6,296 243% 1,799 148% South Asia 3,367 84% 118,942 126% 1,722 115% 950 160% 11,491 725% 5,947 294% India 1,338 51% 79,330 119% 588 85% 921 160% 8,865 844% 4,251 280% Sub-Saharan Africa 3,768 113% 20,939 107% 1,883 137% 1,106 155% 3,235 170% 1,727 155%
  20. 20. Livestock to 2030 – demand growth Meat consumption is increasing faster in developing countries than in developed countries Millions of tonnes Year Developing Developed
  21. 21. Disaggregating demand growth Growth in poultry consumption in China to 2030 Demand growth attributable to population growth Demand growth attributable to changing consumption patterns Demand growth as a function of both Demand in 2000
  22. 22. Implications for production • Rural population growth → EXPANSION • Urban population growth • Increasing wealth • Changing consumption patterns → INTENSIFICATION
  23. 23. The changing livestock sector • Demographic and social drivers • Population: + 32% or 9.6 billion people by 2050 • Income growth: + 2% per year by 2050 • Urbanization: 70% will live in cities by 2050 ➜ Growth in demand for animal source foods • + 70% by 2050 • + 200 million tonnes of meat ➜ Structural changes in the livestock sector • Shift from ruminant to monogastric • Intensification of production ➜ Impinges on global public goods • Poverty and growth • Climate and natural resources • Health and nutrition • Integrated approach to socially desirable livestock sector development • Need reliable data and information to guide policy
  24. 24. Livestock distribution and production Data collection, cleaning and geo-registration Livestock distribution modelling Global livestock maps Livestock maps by production system Livestock production estimates Production systems modelling Sub-national Livestock data Herd / production modelling
  25. 25. Livestock distributions Source: Robinson et al (2014) Pigs Chickens Ducks • Updated sub-national statistics • 1km MODIS data (2001-2008) • Standardised to FAOSTAT 2006 • New, improved modelling approach • Accuracy estimates (internal) • Cluster computing (SIB)
  26. 26. Cattle distribution (2006) Source: Robinson et al. (2014)
  27. 27. Monogastric production systems Mapped based on rural population Difference (total – extensive) % backyard Livestock distribution % intensive Extensive production Intensive production
  28. 28. Chicken systems Output / input ratio (log kg-1 stock-1 year-1) Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year) From World Bank data
  29. 29. Chicken systems Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year) From World Bank data Proportion of extensively raised chickens
  30. 30. Chicken systems Extensive chicken production Intensive chicken production
  31. 31. Predicting future livestock systems Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year) From World Bank data Proportion of extensively raised chickens Chicken production in China 2000 log GDP per capita c. $ 2.9 % extensive c. 83 % 2000 2030 2030 log GDP per capita c. $ 3.8 % extensive c. 18 %
  32. 32. H5N1 HPAI H5N1 risk prediction Source: Gilbert et al. (2008)
  33. 33. Rift Valley Fever Source: Bett al. (under development)
  34. 34. Trypanosomosis Source : Shaw et al. (2014) Economic benefits over 20 years of trypanosomosis removal Photo credit: Sue Welburn
  35. 35. Antimicrobial resistance Source: Van Boeckel et al. (under development) Cattle Chickens Pigs Log10 Population Correction Units (Kg of Meat) – OECD countries 2010 Log10 mg microbial Posterior distributions for estimates of antimicrobial consumption
  36. 36. Antimicrobial resistance Source: Van Boeckel et al. (under development) Global antimicrobial use in food animals (mg per 10km pixel)
  37. 37. http://www.livestock.geo-wiki.org
  38. 38. Looking forward • Improvements to livestock maps • Better disaggregation into production systems • Better understanding of the key drivers and how they will shape the livestock sector of the future • How will this evolving livestock sector affect livelihoods, equality, the environment and public health • How can we translate the resulting evidence into actionable policies to guide sector development

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