Livestock and global change: Towards a sustainable and equitable livestock sector

ILRI
ILRI-- at ILRI
Livestock and global change:
      Production systems for the future:
 Towards a sustainable and equitable livestock sector
balancing trade-offs between food production,
 efficiency, livelihoods and the environment
                 Mario Herrero


                                  M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton




                                          WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation
             ILRI ‘livestock live talk‘, 21 September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi
                                           st
                                         Nairobi, 28 November 2012
Livestock – the big numbers

–     17 billion domestic animals globally! (SOFA 2009)

–     30% of the Earth’s ice-free surface occupied by
      livestock systems (Reid et al 2008)

–     1/3 of global cropland used for feed production

–     14-18% of global greenhouse gas emissions (FAO
      2006)

–     32% of global freshwater consumption (Heinke et al,
      forthcoming)
Livestock’s economic benefits

–    Livestock are a significant global asset: value of at least
     $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock
     industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008)

–    Livestock industries organised in long market chains that
     employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999)

–    Livestock GDP: 20-40% of agricultural GDP

–    Incomes for producers (more constant than crops)

–    Livestock as a risk management tool, especially for the
     poor
At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on
livestock




                          Thornton et al. 2002, revised 2009
                                                          4
Livestock and nutrition
–     Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie
      consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT
      2008) – Africa 8% of calories
–     Providers of food for at least 830 million food insecure people
      (Gerber
–     Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but…
      highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in
      the developing World
–     .              Europe - 2000
                                                                 3%
                                                                      SSA - 2000


                                                                  3%
                     10%             Meat                                                 Meat
                                                           24%        4%
                           11%       Dairy                                                Dairy
          37%                        Fruit & Vegetables                                   Fruit & Vegetables
                             5%                                                           Cereals
                                     Cereals              3%
                                     Roots & Tubers                                       Roots & Tubers
                                                                           47%
            1%                       Dryland crops        16%                             Dryland crops
                       31%           Others                                               Others
                5%
                                                                                 Herrero et al 2008a
The ‘livestock revolution’: as people get richer they consume more meat

     People want to eat chicken, pork and milk!




                                                              FAO: SOFA2011

                                                                              6
The demand for livestock products to
       2050


                       Annual per capita         Total consumption
                         consumption

             year   Meat (kg)     Milk (kg)   Meat (Mt)     Milk (Mt)


Developing   2002      28            44          137          222
             2050      44            78          326          585

Developed    2002      78            202         102          265
             2050      94            216         126          295



                                              Rosegrant et al 2009
Climate change
What will happen to feed resources? Diseases? Productivity?




  Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

  Courtesy of A. Jarvis
Prices volatile, impacts on the livestock sector and the poor?




                                         A blip or an emerging trend?




                                                FAO: SOFA2011
The balancing act
   Pros                                   Cons

  Nutrition                            Large users
                      Livestock        of resources
   Income
                 systems are not the     Polluters
   Risk           same everywhere       (in places)
management
                                        Significant
Employment                                 GHG
                  Needs nuanced         emissions
  Nutrients      understanding and
                                       Less efficient
 Landscape            action             than other
Maintenance                            forms of food
                                        production
  Land use
unsuitable for                           Zoonosis
 agriculture
LIVESTOCK = problem or opportunity?

        Share of livestock in global GHG emissions




                                  Steinfeld et al. (2006)

  Livestock in the developing world have a high mitigation potential

                                                                   11
  Better feeds, breeds, management, incentives, policies and regulation
Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced




  Large ineficiencies in the developing world – an opportunity?

                                                      Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
What are recent assessments telling
us about the future of food and
livestock production?
Will we be able to feed 9 billion people?

   Maybe, depends on what we do.

   Different scenarios = Different resource use
    implications

   Different social, economic and environmental costs




   it all depends how the world reacts
Business as usual will not stop hunger in the world




                                      FAO: SOFA2011
Food production               Herrero et al 2009, 2010


                     Cereals Production



                    4%
                         14%
                                          AgroPastoral
                                          Mixed Extensive
        45%
                                          Mixed Intensive
                                          Other

                           35%            Developed countries

               2%

Mixed systems in the developing world produce almost 50% of
the cereals of the World

Most production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, high
potential, relatively good market access)
Mixed systems in the developing World produce
the food of the poor (Herrero et al 2009)

       Maize Production                            Millet Production
                 3%
                        13%                1% 6%
                                                           26%
                                    19%



 54%                                                                   AgroPastoral
                              28%
                                                                       Mixed Extensive
                                                                       Mixed Intensive
                                                                       Other
                       2%                                              Developed countries
                                                 48%



       Rice Production                Sorghum Production
               6% 3%                                3%
         5%
                            20%
                                     31%



                                                                 44%

                                     2%


         66%                               20%
Mixed systems produce significant amounts of
          milk and meat



           beef                milk                               lamb
              9%                      7%

                                           13%        28%                28%
                   15%


50%                                                                            AgroPastoral
                                                                               Mixed Extensive
                                                17%
                         59%                          5%                       Mixed Intensive
                   19%                                                         Other
                                                                         18% Developed countri
                                           4%
              7%                                            21%




      Developed countries dominate global milk production,
      significant exports
      …but…
      Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb
      in the developing World
Mixed intensive systems in the developing World
are under significant pressures

   2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in
    Asia
   150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by
    2030
   Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry,
    increasing by 30-40% to 2030
   Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice
   Others increasing: maize (East Asia)
   All in the same land!

   Severe water constraints in some places
   Soil fertility problems, shrinking farm sizes in others
Important productivity gains could be made in the
       more extensive mixed rainfed areas

      Less pressure on the land      Population density*
                                      (people/km2)          2000   2030
                                      agro-pastoral          8      14
                                      mixed extensive        79    112
                                      mixed intensive       273    371
                                      other                  28     41




Yield gaps still large

Public investment required to reduce transaction costs, increase
service provision and improve risk management

These systems could turn in ‘providers’ of agro-ecosystems
services to other systems (i.e. fodder for the mixed intensive
systems)
Yield gaps still high in more extensive systems


                     Maize crop in Rajasthan, India during rainy season 2009


District          Rainfal                   Yield (kg ha-1)                     CD
                     l            FP        FP + IC      BN + IC               (5%)
                   (mm)
Tonk                288         1150          1930               3160          280
Udaipur             570         2530          3090               6320          509
Mean
(5
districts) FP=Farmers’ practice; IC=Improved2550 (41%)
                                  1810       cultivar; BN=Balanced nutrition
                                                               4340 (141%)


                                                          Courtesy of Peter Craufurd
To eat or not to eat…..meat?
   A duality

   Health problems in the developed world but need for
    nourishment in the developing world

   How can we differentiate this message?

   Most assessments show that reducing meat
    consumption could have a very positive impact on
    the environment

   ….but no assessment has shown what the social and
    nutritional impacts would be, especially in the
    developing world
Changing diets – consuming less meat or
different types of meat could lower GHG
emissions




                         Stehfest et al. 2009. Climatic Change
Range of GHG intensities for
     different livestock products
                              200
kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein




                              180
                              160
                              140
                              120
                              100
                              80
                              60
                              40
                              20
                               0
                                    Pig   Poultry   Beef     Milk      Eggs


                                                      Source: DeVries & DeBoer (2008)
The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional
               cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed
               demands (IAASTD 2009): can we produce them?


                   Grains
              1048 million tonnes
                more to 2050




                               human
Livestock
                            consumption
430 million MT
Monogastrics mostly
                           458 million MT



                    biofuels
                 160 million MT
Projected land use changes to 2050 in several
       integrated assessments (Smith et al 2010)


    Cropland                   Rangeland             Natural habitats
   +10 to 20%                  avg = 10%               0 to -20%




Cropland area increasing at a faster rate than rangelands

Faster expansion of monogastric production and intensification of
ruminant production with grains
Stover deficits likely to occur in the future
                               Herrero et al. 2009
‘Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to
expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk
and meat increases

                                 India
                                 quotes from M Blummel

                                 ‘Stovers transported more
                                 than 400 km to be sold’

                                 ‘Price has doubled in 5
                                 years, now 2/3 of
                                 grain value of sorghum’

                                 ‘Farmers paying for stover
                                 quality’




                                     Herrero et al. 2009
Intensification of ruminant production could lead to lower
land requirements
                               Land cover change 2000-2030




  Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions   29
  AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
Is sustainable intensification a win – win
solution for livelihoods, food security and the
environment?


    The thrust of the ILRI - IIASA collaboration
Livestock production
Higher production of milk if systems intensified




                                                                31
                            Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
Livestock numbers
With less animals!




                                                 32
             Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
Net cumulated land use change over 2000-2030
                     Intensification could lead to land sparing



                   A little bit more cropland




                                                Lower land expansion




                                                                       33
Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
Annual average GHG emissions over 2020-2030
And to reduced emissions, primarily CO2 from land use changes




                                      Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)




                                                                     34
Price changes 2000-2030
Intensification could dampen livestock product
                price increases




                  Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming) 35
How can we translate the results of
global assessments into actionable
points at the farm level?
complex !
different oppotunities
Approach: Solution-driven R4D to achieve impact


     Value chains and institutions

R4D integrated to transform selected value chains
In targeted commodities and countries.

                                                Consumers



 Major intervention with development partners


Value chain development team + research partners


       Strategic CRP 3.7 Cross-cutting Platforms
    • Technology Generation
    • Market Innovation
    • Targeting & Impact




  INTERVENTIONS TO                GLOBAL RESEARCH
SCALE OUT REGIONALLY                PUBLIC GOODS
Integrated assessment of farming systems
essential – at all levels – from global to local!




                                         Herrero et al, Science 2010
Trade-offs and synergies



                      income
                        1
                      0.5
  external inputs               food security
                       0


          water use            GHG


                                     mixed
                                     pastoral
A few unresolved things….
Land consolidation vs growth and
intensification of the smallholder sector

     Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign
      capital investment)
     Smallholder development possibly more pro-
      poor
     Smallholders: low opportunity cost of labour
     Do diversified smallholder farms promote more
      biodiversity and better management of
      ecosystems services?
     Smallholder sector fragmented: what actors
      are needed to support it?
What role for rangelands?

Largest land use system

Increasingly fragmented

Potentially a large C sink

PES: an important
income diversification
source

Difficulties in:
Measuring and
monitoring C stocks

Establishment of
payment schemes
                             Potential for carbon
Dealing with mobile          sequestration in rangelands
pastoralists                 (Conant and Paustian 2002)
How much land is available for
agricultural expansion?
    Essential to understand the magnitude of
     technological change!
    Widely different estimates in the literature
     (300 – 800 million hectares)
    What types of land are suitable? Rangeland vs
     forest? Opportunity costs?
    What kinds of incentives will be required to
     develop them?
    Can their development be pro-poor?
    What is the magnitude of the investment
     required?
Breakthroughs and surprises
    Biotechnology: how much can we really alter
     technological change through biotechnology?

    Information technology

    Communications

    others
Moving between scales

 From  noble global goals (food security, poverty
 erradication and a sustainable world)

  to the grand diversity of farming and livelihood
 systems

 and   viceversa!
Some conclusions

   Can we feed 9 billion people: yes, we can by doing
    the right things

   We need to change investment paradigm and also
    start investing in the systems of the future (not only
    in the what were the high potential areas)

   Livestock research could have an enormous role

   Infrastructure and market development essential

   Incentives: Technology could play a key role but we
    need investment in provision of services
2002   Poverty mapping in the developing world
                        2006   Mapping vulnerability to climate change in Africa

                        2007   Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture

                        2007   IPCC AR4 report – inputs in the adaptation chapter
                        2008   Human Development Report
                        2009   IAASTD – contributing authors
                               CGIAR Assessment of drivers of change in mixed crop-livestock
                        2009
                               systems
Sustainable livestock
                        2009   IPCC Greenhouse Gas Emissions Task Force
futures team            2009   Livestock in a Changing Landscape
                        2010   Science food security issue – invited review

some contributions to   2010   World Development Report – Climate Change
                        2010   UK Foresight report – contributing authors
the global change       2011   UNEP Ecosystems Services Assessment
agenda                  2011   State of the World Report – Livestock Chapter lead
                        2011   WWF Global deforestation outlook

                        2011   Vulnerability of food systems to climate change (for CCAFS)


                        2013   PNAS Special Issue on Livestock and Global Change (Guest Editors)


                        2013   IPCC AR5 report contributing authors adaptation/mitigation chapters
Thank you!

       Thank you!
1 of 49

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Livestock and global change: Towards a sustainable and equitable livestock sector

  • 1. Livestock and global change: Production systems for the future: Towards a sustainable and equitable livestock sector balancing trade-offs between food production, efficiency, livelihoods and the environment Mario Herrero M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation ILRI ‘livestock live talk‘, 21 September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi st Nairobi, 28 November 2012
  • 2. Livestock – the big numbers – 17 billion domestic animals globally! (SOFA 2009) – 30% of the Earth’s ice-free surface occupied by livestock systems (Reid et al 2008) – 1/3 of global cropland used for feed production – 14-18% of global greenhouse gas emissions (FAO 2006) – 32% of global freshwater consumption (Heinke et al, forthcoming)
  • 3. Livestock’s economic benefits – Livestock are a significant global asset: value of at least $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008) – Livestock industries organised in long market chains that employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999) – Livestock GDP: 20-40% of agricultural GDP – Incomes for producers (more constant than crops) – Livestock as a risk management tool, especially for the poor
  • 4. At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on livestock Thornton et al. 2002, revised 2009 4
  • 5. Livestock and nutrition – Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008) – Africa 8% of calories – Providers of food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber – Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in the developing World – . Europe - 2000 3% SSA - 2000 3% 10% Meat Meat 24% 4% 11% Dairy Dairy 37% Fruit & Vegetables Fruit & Vegetables 5% Cereals Cereals 3% Roots & Tubers Roots & Tubers 47% 1% Dryland crops 16% Dryland crops 31% Others Others 5% Herrero et al 2008a
  • 6. The ‘livestock revolution’: as people get richer they consume more meat People want to eat chicken, pork and milk! FAO: SOFA2011 6
  • 7. The demand for livestock products to 2050 Annual per capita Total consumption consumption year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt) Developing 2002 28 44 137 222 2050 44 78 326 585 Developed 2002 78 202 102 265 2050 94 216 126 295 Rosegrant et al 2009
  • 8. Climate change What will happen to feed resources? Diseases? Productivity? Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050 Courtesy of A. Jarvis
  • 9. Prices volatile, impacts on the livestock sector and the poor? A blip or an emerging trend? FAO: SOFA2011
  • 10. The balancing act Pros Cons Nutrition Large users Livestock of resources Income systems are not the Polluters Risk same everywhere (in places) management Significant Employment GHG Needs nuanced emissions Nutrients understanding and Less efficient Landscape action than other Maintenance forms of food production Land use unsuitable for Zoonosis agriculture
  • 11. LIVESTOCK = problem or opportunity? Share of livestock in global GHG emissions Steinfeld et al. (2006) Livestock in the developing world have a high mitigation potential 11 Better feeds, breeds, management, incentives, policies and regulation
  • 12. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced Large ineficiencies in the developing world – an opportunity? Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
  • 13. What are recent assessments telling us about the future of food and livestock production?
  • 14. Will we be able to feed 9 billion people?  Maybe, depends on what we do.  Different scenarios = Different resource use implications  Different social, economic and environmental costs  it all depends how the world reacts
  • 15. Business as usual will not stop hunger in the world FAO: SOFA2011
  • 16. Food production Herrero et al 2009, 2010 Cereals Production 4% 14% AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive 45% Mixed Intensive Other 35% Developed countries 2% Mixed systems in the developing world produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World Most production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, high potential, relatively good market access)
  • 17. Mixed systems in the developing World produce the food of the poor (Herrero et al 2009) Maize Production Millet Production 3% 13% 1% 6% 26% 19% 54% AgroPastoral 28% Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other 2% Developed countries 48% Rice Production Sorghum Production 6% 3% 3% 5% 20% 31% 44% 2% 66% 20%
  • 18. Mixed systems produce significant amounts of milk and meat beef milk lamb 9% 7% 13% 28% 28% 15% 50% AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive 17% 59% 5% Mixed Intensive 19% Other 18% Developed countri 4% 7% 21% Developed countries dominate global milk production, significant exports …but… Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World
  • 19. Mixed intensive systems in the developing World are under significant pressures  2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in Asia  150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by 2030  Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry, increasing by 30-40% to 2030  Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice  Others increasing: maize (East Asia)  All in the same land!  Severe water constraints in some places  Soil fertility problems, shrinking farm sizes in others
  • 20. Important productivity gains could be made in the more extensive mixed rainfed areas  Less pressure on the land Population density* (people/km2) 2000 2030 agro-pastoral 8 14 mixed extensive 79 112 mixed intensive 273 371 other 28 41 Yield gaps still large Public investment required to reduce transaction costs, increase service provision and improve risk management These systems could turn in ‘providers’ of agro-ecosystems services to other systems (i.e. fodder for the mixed intensive systems)
  • 21. Yield gaps still high in more extensive systems Maize crop in Rajasthan, India during rainy season 2009 District Rainfal Yield (kg ha-1) CD l FP FP + IC BN + IC (5%) (mm) Tonk 288 1150 1930 3160 280 Udaipur 570 2530 3090 6320 509 Mean (5 districts) FP=Farmers’ practice; IC=Improved2550 (41%) 1810 cultivar; BN=Balanced nutrition 4340 (141%) Courtesy of Peter Craufurd
  • 22. To eat or not to eat…..meat?  A duality  Health problems in the developed world but need for nourishment in the developing world  How can we differentiate this message?  Most assessments show that reducing meat consumption could have a very positive impact on the environment  ….but no assessment has shown what the social and nutritional impacts would be, especially in the developing world
  • 23. Changing diets – consuming less meat or different types of meat could lower GHG emissions Stehfest et al. 2009. Climatic Change
  • 24. Range of GHG intensities for different livestock products 200 kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Pig Poultry Beef Milk Eggs Source: DeVries & DeBoer (2008)
  • 25. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009): can we produce them? Grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 human Livestock consumption 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly 458 million MT biofuels 160 million MT
  • 26. Projected land use changes to 2050 in several integrated assessments (Smith et al 2010) Cropland Rangeland Natural habitats +10 to 20% avg = 10% 0 to -20% Cropland area increasing at a faster rate than rangelands Faster expansion of monogastric production and intensification of ruminant production with grains
  • 27. Stover deficits likely to occur in the future Herrero et al. 2009
  • 28. ‘Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk and meat increases India quotes from M Blummel ‘Stovers transported more than 400 km to be sold’ ‘Price has doubled in 5 years, now 2/3 of grain value of sorghum’ ‘Farmers paying for stover quality’ Herrero et al. 2009
  • 29. Intensification of ruminant production could lead to lower land requirements Land cover change 2000-2030 Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions 29 AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
  • 30. Is sustainable intensification a win – win solution for livelihoods, food security and the environment? The thrust of the ILRI - IIASA collaboration
  • 31. Livestock production Higher production of milk if systems intensified 31 Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
  • 32. Livestock numbers With less animals! 32 Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
  • 33. Net cumulated land use change over 2000-2030 Intensification could lead to land sparing A little bit more cropland Lower land expansion 33 Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
  • 34. Annual average GHG emissions over 2020-2030 And to reduced emissions, primarily CO2 from land use changes Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming) 34
  • 35. Price changes 2000-2030 Intensification could dampen livestock product price increases Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming) 35
  • 36. How can we translate the results of global assessments into actionable points at the farm level?
  • 38. Approach: Solution-driven R4D to achieve impact Value chains and institutions R4D integrated to transform selected value chains In targeted commodities and countries. Consumers Major intervention with development partners Value chain development team + research partners Strategic CRP 3.7 Cross-cutting Platforms • Technology Generation • Market Innovation • Targeting & Impact INTERVENTIONS TO GLOBAL RESEARCH SCALE OUT REGIONALLY PUBLIC GOODS
  • 39. Integrated assessment of farming systems essential – at all levels – from global to local! Herrero et al, Science 2010
  • 40. Trade-offs and synergies income 1 0.5 external inputs food security 0 water use GHG mixed pastoral
  • 41. A few unresolved things….
  • 42. Land consolidation vs growth and intensification of the smallholder sector  Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign capital investment)  Smallholder development possibly more pro- poor  Smallholders: low opportunity cost of labour  Do diversified smallholder farms promote more biodiversity and better management of ecosystems services?  Smallholder sector fragmented: what actors are needed to support it?
  • 43. What role for rangelands? Largest land use system Increasingly fragmented Potentially a large C sink PES: an important income diversification source Difficulties in: Measuring and monitoring C stocks Establishment of payment schemes Potential for carbon Dealing with mobile sequestration in rangelands pastoralists (Conant and Paustian 2002)
  • 44. How much land is available for agricultural expansion?  Essential to understand the magnitude of technological change!  Widely different estimates in the literature (300 – 800 million hectares)  What types of land are suitable? Rangeland vs forest? Opportunity costs?  What kinds of incentives will be required to develop them?  Can their development be pro-poor?  What is the magnitude of the investment required?
  • 45. Breakthroughs and surprises  Biotechnology: how much can we really alter technological change through biotechnology?  Information technology  Communications  others
  • 46. Moving between scales From noble global goals (food security, poverty erradication and a sustainable world)  to the grand diversity of farming and livelihood systems and viceversa!
  • 47. Some conclusions  Can we feed 9 billion people: yes, we can by doing the right things  We need to change investment paradigm and also start investing in the systems of the future (not only in the what were the high potential areas)  Livestock research could have an enormous role  Infrastructure and market development essential  Incentives: Technology could play a key role but we need investment in provision of services
  • 48. 2002 Poverty mapping in the developing world 2006 Mapping vulnerability to climate change in Africa 2007 Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture 2007 IPCC AR4 report – inputs in the adaptation chapter 2008 Human Development Report 2009 IAASTD – contributing authors CGIAR Assessment of drivers of change in mixed crop-livestock 2009 systems Sustainable livestock 2009 IPCC Greenhouse Gas Emissions Task Force futures team 2009 Livestock in a Changing Landscape 2010 Science food security issue – invited review some contributions to 2010 World Development Report – Climate Change 2010 UK Foresight report – contributing authors the global change 2011 UNEP Ecosystems Services Assessment agenda 2011 State of the World Report – Livestock Chapter lead 2011 WWF Global deforestation outlook 2011 Vulnerability of food systems to climate change (for CCAFS) 2013 PNAS Special Issue on Livestock and Global Change (Guest Editors) 2013 IPCC AR5 report contributing authors adaptation/mitigation chapters
  • 49. Thank you! Thank you!

Editor's Notes

  1. Yield gap can be closed by improved cultivars combined with balanced nutrients