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THE TRANSFORMATIVE 
ROLE OF LIVESTOCK IN 
THE DEVELOPING WORLD 
Christopher Delgado 
Sr. Fellow, WRI 
ILRI@40 Event 
Des M...
THE NATURAL RESOURCE 
AND 
BEHAVIORAL CONTEXTS 
Photo credits: Safla Osman “Chuanr on Fire” Creative Commons License and 
...
LOOKING FORWARD, LIVESTOCK’S ROLE IN 
DEVELOPING WORLD IS DETERMINED BY… 
• Demand and supply opportunities 
and challenge...
CHALLENGES FOR LIVESTOCK ON THE 
DEMAND SIDE OF RESOURCE USE 
• Growing food and nutritional 
unmet needs and imbalances 
...
DIET CHANGE IN EMERGING COUNTRIES: 
CHANGING MEAT & MILK PRODUCTION 
• Developing 
Countries accounted 
for 1/3 of world’s...
NET VALUE OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL 
PRODUCTION 1987-2012 
2500 
2000 
1500 
1000 
500 
0 
Global 1987 Global 2012 Asia 1987 ...
CAN WE MEET CONTINUED HIGH DEMAND TO 
2050 FOR MEAT, MILK AND FISH? 
BY 2050: 
• 9.6 billion people 
• 70% urban-diet shif...
PROBLEM: WOOD DEMAND GROWING 
EVEN FASTER (X 5-6) THAN FOOD 
• By 2050, wood removals 
projected to triple 
• Pulp demand ...
CHALLENGES FOR LIVESTOCK ON THE 
SUPPLY SIDE OF RESOURCE USE 
• Production growth is keeping up 
only at expense of cleari...
AGRICULTURAL & PASTURE LAND DEGRADATION 
• 25% of all ag land severely 
degraded 
• Another 8% moderately degraded 
• Grow...
AGRICULTURE & LAND USE = 24% OF ALL 
GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONS IN 2010 
Livestock & 
manure = 
• 30% of direct ag emissions 
• ...
LIVESTOCK WIDELY BLAMED AS “DRIVER” OF 
DEFORESTATION WHEN MEANING IS NOT CLEAR 
Photo: J. Anderson, WRI 
Crop 
& 
Live-st...
PROBLEM: DEFORESTATION 
AND FOREST DEGRADATION 
• “Deforestation” means recently 
cleared land will not be allowed to 
ret...
THE (ACTUAL) DRIVERS OF FOREST 
DEGRADATION (CUTTING TREES) 
Livestock 
Charcoal 
Timber 
Source: G. Kissinger et al, Driv...
THE ROLE OF LIVESTOCK IN 
SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS FOR 
THE EVOLVING NATURAL 
RESOURCE AND BEHAVIORAL 
CONTEXT 
Photo: Loess ...
INCORPORATING THE POWER OF LIVESTOCK 
FOR MORE SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS 
• Invest in raising animal, pasture, 
crop, and forest...
SOLUTION: INVESTMENTS IN R&D 
(EXAMPLES) 
• Productivity 
– Animal genetics, incl. traits like disease and heat resistance...
INSIGHTS FROM HIGH REGIONAL VARIATION IN 
Kg CO2e / Kg BEEF PRODUCTION 
N. 
Amer 
W. 
Euro 
E. 
Euro 
SS 
Africa 
LAC S. A...
INTENSIFYING LIVESTOCK & CROPS REQUIRES 
PROTECTING FORESTS: E.G. BRAZIL’S AMAZON SINCE 
2004, USING REMOTE SENSING 
Sourc...
SOLUTION: RESTORING 150 M HA OF DEGRADED 
AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES BY 2030 
Basically Two Approaches: 
• Capital & skill in...
SOLUTION: LIVESTOCK IN RESTORING PRODUCTIVE 
AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES: EXAMPLE FROM 
CHINA’S LOESS PLATEAU 
1990 
Terracing...
LOESS PLATEAU: GOOD PRACTICE FOR AN 
INTENSIVE AG LANDSCAPE APPROACH 
2 Chinese Government /World Bank projects started i...
SOLUTION: LIVESTOCK IN FARMER-MANAGED 
NATURAL REGENERATION OF 
TREES WITHIN CROP FIELDS 
• Big success in Sahel 
– Costs ...
NIGER SHOWS A WAY FOR 300 M HA IN AFRICA 
(EVEN OUTSIDE SPECIFIC PROJECTS) 
1980s Maradi and Zinder Provinces 
2013 
 197...
IMPROVING THE CONTRIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK 
THROUGH IMPROVED TRADE 
• Global meat trade has grown 40% in last 10 
years 
• Ye...
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS ON ROLE OF 
LIVESTOCK IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 
• Critical global need for restoration of productive 
l...
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The transformative role of livestock in the developing world

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Presented by Christopher Delgado (World Resources Institute) at the ILRI@40 side event on Livestock-based options for sustainable food systems, Des Moines, USA, 15 October 2014

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The transformative role of livestock in the developing world

  1. 1. THE TRANSFORMATIVE ROLE OF LIVESTOCK IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD Christopher Delgado Sr. Fellow, WRI ILRI@40 Event Des Moines, Iowa, October 15, 2014 PHOTO CREDIT: WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE, FLICKR
  2. 2. THE NATURAL RESOURCE AND BEHAVIORAL CONTEXTS Photo credits: Safla Osman “Chuanr on Fire” Creative Commons License and cattle in Ethiopia, James Anderson, WRI
  3. 3. LOOKING FORWARD, LIVESTOCK’S ROLE IN DEVELOPING WORLD IS DETERMINED BY… • Demand and supply opportunities and challenges for livestock… BUT ALSO: • Demand and supply issues for competing users of natural resources: crops, forests, etc. • Land use is now a trade-off; no more “free” land and water… • The “carbon budget” also entering… Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr
  4. 4. CHALLENGES FOR LIVESTOCK ON THE DEMAND SIDE OF RESOURCE USE • Growing food and nutritional unmet needs and imbalances • Rising demand for animal protein • Rising awareness of GHG impacts in ag & land use • Timber and pulp demand, and forest carbon loss adds to this • Developments for biofuels and food loss also relevant Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr
  5. 5. DIET CHANGE IN EMERGING COUNTRIES: CHANGING MEAT & MILK PRODUCTION • Developing Countries accounted for 1/3 of world’s meat + ¼ of milk in 1982/1984 • Now they acount for more than 2/3 of meat and more than 1/2 of milk Photo credit: Safla Osman “Chuanr on Fire” (Beijing street food) Creative Commons License
  6. 6. NET VALUE OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 1987-2012 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Global 1987 Global 2012 Asia 1987 Asia 2012 Livestock Crops Source: FAOStat3 (in $2004/06 billions ) World Food $ over 35 Years • Rapid Growth • Asian Share Growing • Livestock Share Growing
  7. 7. CAN WE MEET CONTINUED HIGH DEMAND TO 2050 FOR MEAT, MILK AND FISH? BY 2050: • 9.6 billion people • 70% urban-diet shift • 70% more calories • 2x as much dairy • 1.5x more cereals • 2x as much meat Photo credit: Mondongo, Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/51378257@N00/11168801095/; figures are from WRI, WRR 2013
  8. 8. PROBLEM: WOOD DEMAND GROWING EVEN FASTER (X 5-6) THAN FOOD • By 2050, wood removals projected to triple • Pulp demand going down in U.S. and Europe • But pulp & timber demand soaring in developing countries • Source: WWF Living Forests
  9. 9. CHALLENGES FOR LIVESTOCK ON THE SUPPLY SIDE OF RESOURCE USE • Production growth is keeping up only at expense of clearing more land – need 1/3 more than 42kg/yr avg yield growth of cereals of last 40 years to avoid need for new cereals land next 40 years! • Crop & pasture degradation • High GHG emissions of ruminants • Blamed for deforestation Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr
  10. 10. AGRICULTURAL & PASTURE LAND DEGRADATION • 25% of all ag land severely degraded • Another 8% moderately degraded • Growing annually—how much? • Overgrazing a major factor • Cost in terms of reduced ag production of 3-7% • Photo credit: CIFOR, Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/cifor/8636677394 • Figures on extent of degradation are from FAO, SOLAW 2011. • Cost in reduced productivity: 3 - 7% of agricultural production across 7 widely spread developing countries from Berry, Olsen and Campbell. 2003 (Global Mechanism).
  11. 11. AGRICULTURE & LAND USE = 24% OF ALL GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONS IN 2010 Livestock & manure = • 30% of direct ag emissions • 7 % of all global GHGs • Up to 14.5% if livestock related land use change is counted as livestock caused • Ruminants = 80% of livestock GHG issue (Beef= 6 X as many GHG/protein as chicken, eggs or pork)
  12. 12. LIVESTOCK WIDELY BLAMED AS “DRIVER” OF DEFORESTATION WHEN MEANING IS NOT CLEAR Photo: J. Anderson, WRI Crop & Live-stock Source: G. Kissinger et al, Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation: Synthesis Report for Policymakers , 7 Sept. 2012
  13. 13. PROBLEM: DEFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION • “Deforestation” means recently cleared land will not be allowed to return to forest – Global net deforestation 2000 to 2009 at 5.2 M ha/yr (FAO) • “Degradation” means trees are removed – About 13 M (FAO) – 20 M (UMD) ha/yr loss in tree cover = “Gross Deforestation” (FAO) or (gross) Tree Cover Loss (UMD)
  14. 14. THE (ACTUAL) DRIVERS OF FOREST DEGRADATION (CUTTING TREES) Livestock Charcoal Timber Source: G. Kissinger et al, Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation: Synthesis Report for Policymakers , 7 Sept. 2012
  15. 15. THE ROLE OF LIVESTOCK IN SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE EVOLVING NATURAL RESOURCE AND BEHAVIORAL CONTEXT Photo: Loess Plateau, Erick Fernandes, World Bank
  16. 16. INCORPORATING THE POWER OF LIVESTOCK FOR MORE SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS • Invest in raising animal, pasture, crop, and forest productivity and resilience • Address rising GHG problems, including of livestock • Protect forests • Restore productive landscapes • Promote the changes needed for improving market access Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr
  17. 17. SOLUTION: INVESTMENTS IN R&D (EXAMPLES) • Productivity – Animal genetics, incl. traits like disease and heat resistance – Liming and forage legumes in Latin America – Yield increases for crops help livestock directly and indirectly – Animal health interventions/risk mitigation – Importance of new biological sciences and technologies • Natural resource management – Reducing GHG/unit of livestock output through management/feeding – Rotational grazing – Alternate and wetting of rice • Vehicles: – CGIAR public sector investment – Strengthening national systems – PPP Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr
  18. 18. INSIGHTS FROM HIGH REGIONAL VARIATION IN Kg CO2e / Kg BEEF PRODUCTION N. Amer W. Euro E. Euro SS Africa LAC S. Asia E. & SE. Asia kgCO2e 29 18 14 60 72 77 47 % from Enteric CH4 38% 33% 36% 68% 33% 65% 60% Note: Other sources include manure, feed production related, land use change, energy, and post-farm. Major differences come from differences in production systems, feed quality, herd management, and manure management. Source: FAO (Gerber et al. 2013)
  19. 19. INTENSIFYING LIVESTOCK & CROPS REQUIRES PROTECTING FORESTS: E.G. BRAZIL’S AMAZON SINCE 2004, USING REMOTE SENSING Source: J. Assuncao and T. Heller (2014)
  20. 20. SOLUTION: RESTORING 150 M HA OF DEGRADED AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES BY 2030 Basically Two Approaches: • Capital & skill intensive development projects – e.g. China’s Loess plateau watershed rehab projects – Maybe 1 M ha/year in new projects • Labor natural regeneration – 9 M ha a year in new area quite feasible Both require livestock changes at landscape level
  21. 21. SOLUTION: LIVESTOCK IN RESTORING PRODUCTIVE AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES: EXAMPLE FROM CHINA’S LOESS PLATEAU 1990 Terracing; planting forage, fruit trees and shrubs; cut/carry & confinement of goats; cashmere and dairy introduced, huge success Source: World Bank project completion evaluations of the Loess Plateau Watershed Habilitation Projects I and II, 1999 and 2005. 2012 Free ranging of goats on steep slopes was big part of the problem; not much other livestock due to absence of feed
  22. 22. LOESS PLATEAU: GOOD PRACTICE FOR AN INTENSIVE AG LANDSCAPE APPROACH 2 Chinese Government /World Bank projects started in 1994, with $491M of investment, focused on 400,000 km2 over ten years, 20% internal rate of return  Rate for return for livestock component was 27%, highest of all activities Per-capita incomes increase by ~190%, Average grain yields increase by 62% in project areas in 10 years Overall soil erosion down by 60-100 Mt per year; huge favorable impact on Yellow River Mitigation: 2.5 Mt of CO2e sequestered annually from reduced soil loss + added biomass SOURCE: World Bank project completion evaluations of the Loess Plateau Watershed Habilitation Projects I and II, 1999 and 2005. Photos Till Niermann, GNU free documentation License v1.2 (1990) and Erick Fernandes (2012)
  23. 23. SOLUTION: LIVESTOCK IN FARMER-MANAGED NATURAL REGENERATION OF TREES WITHIN CROP FIELDS • Big success in Sahel – Costs on order of $20/ha/yr of non-farmer total investment over 30 years plus farmer labor – Tree shade and leaf/root fertilization made retention of less vulnerable livestock (and thus manure) on crop fields feasible; also some feeding ops with crops – Increased returns presently on order of $180/ha/year all activities • Potential for 300 M ha in Africa Photo credit: Chris Reij, World Resources Institute
  24. 24. NIGER SHOWS A WAY FOR 300 M HA IN AFRICA (EVEN OUTSIDE SPECIFIC PROJECTS) 1980s Maradi and Zinder Provinces 2013  1970’s/1980’s zone of increasing marginalization, declining crop yields, decreasing viability of livestock keeping Now 5 million ha of fields restored Implementation: foreign NGO, then “know how” spread by farmers, rural code reformed 1993 for rights to trees Impact: Million rural households; herds sedentarized, additional 500 000 t of cereals per year feeding 2.5 m people and extra US$250 million in farm income Source: WRI analysis using the following datasets: Protected areas: IUCN and UNEP. 2013. The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). Cambridge, UK: UNEP-WCMC. Croplands: Fritz, S. and L. See. 2013. Global Hybrid Cropland. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA and IFPRI. Precipitation isohyets: FAO/UNEP Desertification and Mapping Project. 1986. Africa Mean Annual Rainfall. Geneva, Switzerland: UNEP/GRID. Impact for Niger Zinder case from worldagroforestry.org
  25. 25. IMPROVING THE CONTRIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK THROUGH IMPROVED TRADE • Global meat trade has grown 40% in last 10 years • Yet only 1/10 of world meat (by vol.) is traded; compare to 1/3 for fish • Concentration of global supply chain: top 10 had $200 billion revenue in 2013 and heavy BRIC involvement • High value market access depends now on sanitary compliance; much cheape rin Niger (ex) than financial hedges of risk • GHG reduction may be future condition for supplying to high value chains Photo credit: Mondongo, Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/51378257@N00/11168801095/; figures are from lChapter 3, New Climate Economy Report. The global Commission on the Economy and Climate, Sept. 16, 2014
  26. 26. CONCLUDING THOUGHTS ON ROLE OF LIVESTOCK IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES • Critical global need for restoration of productive landscapes • Livestock cannot be considered apart from the larger landscape b/c of the many negative externalities involved • Livestock is also one of the very few growing income sources for smallholder involvement in restoring landscapes at scale • Sustainable transformation of farming requires proactive livestock interventions in a landscape approach • Rapid changes driven by the Global South will continue Source: Ethiopia, Aaron Minnick, WRI

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