THE TRANSFORMATIVE
ROLE OF LIVESTOCK IN
THE DEVELOPING WORLD
Christopher Delgado
Sr. Fellow, WRI
ILRI@40 Event
Des Moines, Iowa, October 15, 2014
PHOTO CREDIT: WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE, FLICKR

THE NATURAL RESOURCE
AND
BEHAVIORAL CONTEXTS
Photo credits: Safla Osman “Chuanr on Fire” Creative Commons License and
cattle in Ethiopia, James Anderson, WRI

LOOKING FORWARD, LIVESTOCK’S ROLE IN
DEVELOPING WORLD IS DETERMINED BY…
• Demand and supply opportunities
and challenges for livestock…
BUT ALSO:
• Demand and supply issues for
competing users of natural
resources: crops, forests, etc.
• Land use is now a trade-off; no more
“free” land and water…
• The “carbon budget” also entering…
Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr

CHALLENGES FOR LIVESTOCK ON THE
DEMAND SIDE OF RESOURCE USE
• Growing food and nutritional
unmet needs and imbalances
• Rising demand for animal protein
• Rising awareness of GHG
impacts in ag & land use
• Timber and pulp demand, and
forest carbon loss adds to this
• Developments for biofuels and
food loss also relevant
Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr

DIET CHANGE IN EMERGING COUNTRIES:
CHANGING MEAT & MILK PRODUCTION
• Developing
Countries accounted
for 1/3 of world’s
meat + ¼ of milk in
1982/1984
• Now they acount for
more than 2/3 of
meat and more than
1/2 of milk
Photo credit: Safla Osman “Chuanr on Fire” (Beijing street food) Creative Commons License

NET VALUE OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION 1987-2012
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Global 1987 Global 2012 Asia 1987 Asia 2012
Livestock
Crops
Source: FAOStat3
(in $2004/06 billions )
World Food $ over 35 Years
• Rapid Growth
• Asian Share Growing
• Livestock Share Growing

CAN WE MEET CONTINUED HIGH DEMAND TO
2050 FOR MEAT, MILK AND FISH?
BY 2050:
• 9.6 billion people
• 70% urban-diet shift
• 70% more calories
• 2x as much dairy
• 1.5x more cereals
• 2x as much meat
Photo credit: Mondongo, Flickr
https://www.flickr.com/photos/51378257@N00/11168801095/; figures are from WRI, WRR 2013

PROBLEM: WOOD DEMAND GROWING
EVEN FASTER (X 5-6) THAN FOOD
• By 2050, wood removals
projected to triple
• Pulp demand going down
in U.S. and Europe
• But pulp & timber
demand soaring in
developing countries
• Source: WWF Living Forests

CHALLENGES FOR LIVESTOCK ON THE
SUPPLY SIDE OF RESOURCE USE
• Production growth is keeping up
only at expense of clearing more
land
– need 1/3 more than 42kg/yr avg yield
growth of cereals of last 40 years to
avoid need for new cereals land next
40 years!
• Crop & pasture degradation
• High GHG emissions of ruminants
• Blamed for deforestation
Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr

AGRICULTURAL & PASTURE LAND DEGRADATION
• 25% of all ag land severely
degraded
• Another 8% moderately degraded
• Growing annually—how much?
• Overgrazing a major factor
• Cost in terms of reduced ag
production of 3-7%
• Photo credit: CIFOR, Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/cifor/8636677394
• Figures on extent of degradation are from FAO, SOLAW 2011.
• Cost in reduced productivity: 3 - 7% of agricultural production across 7 widely spread developing countries from Berry, Olsen and Campbell. 2003 (Global
Mechanism).

AGRICULTURE & LAND USE = 24% OF ALL
GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONS IN 2010
Livestock &
manure =
• 30% of direct ag emissions
• 7 % of all global GHGs
• Up to 14.5% if livestock
related land use change is
counted as livestock
caused
• Ruminants = 80% of
livestock GHG issue (Beef=
6 X as many GHG/protein
as chicken, eggs or pork)

LIVESTOCK WIDELY BLAMED AS “DRIVER” OF
DEFORESTATION WHEN MEANING IS NOT CLEAR
Photo: J. Anderson, WRI
Crop
&
Live-stock
Source: G. Kissinger et al, Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation:
Synthesis Report for Policymakers , 7 Sept. 2012

PROBLEM: DEFORESTATION
AND FOREST DEGRADATION
• “Deforestation” means recently
cleared land will not be allowed to
return to forest
– Global net deforestation 2000 to 2009
at 5.2 M ha/yr (FAO)
• “Degradation” means trees are
removed
– About 13 M (FAO) – 20 M (UMD)
ha/yr loss in tree cover = “Gross
Deforestation” (FAO) or (gross) Tree
Cover Loss (UMD)

THE (ACTUAL) DRIVERS OF FOREST
DEGRADATION (CUTTING TREES)
Livestock
Charcoal
Timber
Source: G. Kissinger et al, Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation:
Synthesis Report for Policymakers , 7 Sept. 2012

THE ROLE OF LIVESTOCK IN
SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS FOR
THE EVOLVING NATURAL
RESOURCE AND BEHAVIORAL
CONTEXT
Photo: Loess Plateau, Erick Fernandes, World Bank

INCORPORATING THE POWER OF LIVESTOCK
FOR MORE SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS
• Invest in raising animal, pasture,
crop, and forest productivity and
resilience
• Address rising GHG problems,
including of livestock
• Protect forests
• Restore productive landscapes
• Promote the changes needed for
improving market access
Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr

SOLUTION: INVESTMENTS IN R&D
(EXAMPLES)
• Productivity
– Animal genetics, incl. traits like disease and heat resistance
– Liming and forage legumes in Latin America
– Yield increases for crops help livestock directly and indirectly
– Animal health interventions/risk mitigation
– Importance of new biological sciences and technologies
• Natural resource management
– Reducing GHG/unit of livestock output through
management/feeding
– Rotational grazing
– Alternate and wetting of rice
• Vehicles:
– CGIAR public sector investment
– Strengthening national systems
– PPP
Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr

INSIGHTS FROM HIGH REGIONAL VARIATION IN
Kg CO2e / Kg BEEF PRODUCTION
N.
Amer
W.
Euro
E.
Euro
SS
Africa
LAC S. Asia
E. &
SE.
Asia
kgCO2e 29 18 14 60 72 77 47
% from
Enteric
CH4
38% 33% 36% 68% 33% 65% 60%
Note: Other sources include manure, feed production related, land use change,
energy, and post-farm. Major differences come from differences in production
systems, feed quality, herd management, and manure management.
Source: FAO (Gerber et al. 2013)

INTENSIFYING LIVESTOCK & CROPS REQUIRES
PROTECTING FORESTS: E.G. BRAZIL’S AMAZON SINCE
2004, USING REMOTE SENSING
Source: J. Assuncao and T. Heller (2014)

SOLUTION: RESTORING 150 M HA OF DEGRADED
AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES BY 2030
Basically Two Approaches:
• Capital & skill intensive development
projects
– e.g. China’s Loess plateau watershed rehab
projects
– Maybe 1 M ha/year in new projects
• Labor natural regeneration
– 9 M ha a year in new area quite feasible
Both require livestock changes at landscape
level

SOLUTION: LIVESTOCK IN RESTORING PRODUCTIVE
AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES: EXAMPLE FROM
CHINA’S LOESS PLATEAU
1990
Terracing; planting forage, fruit
trees and shrubs; cut/carry &
confinement of goats; cashmere
and dairy introduced, huge success
Source: World Bank project completion evaluations of the Loess Plateau Watershed
Habilitation Projects I and II, 1999 and 2005.
2012
Free ranging of goats on steep
slopes was big part of the problem;
not much other livestock due to
absence of feed

LOESS PLATEAU: GOOD PRACTICE FOR AN
INTENSIVE AG LANDSCAPE APPROACH
2 Chinese Government /World Bank projects started in
1994, with $491M of investment, focused on 400,000 km2
over ten years, 20% internal rate of return
 Rate for return for livestock component was 27%, highest
of all activities
Per-capita incomes increase by ~190%, Average grain
yields increase by 62% in project areas in 10 years
Overall soil erosion down by 60-100 Mt per year; huge
favorable impact on Yellow River
Mitigation: 2.5 Mt of CO2e sequestered annually from
reduced soil loss + added biomass
SOURCE: World Bank project completion evaluations of the Loess Plateau Watershed Habilitation Projects I and II, 1999 and 2005. Photos Till Niermann,
GNU free documentation License v1.2 (1990) and Erick Fernandes (2012)

SOLUTION: LIVESTOCK IN FARMER-MANAGED
NATURAL REGENERATION OF
TREES WITHIN CROP FIELDS
• Big success in Sahel
– Costs on order of $20/ha/yr of non-farmer
total investment over 30 years plus farmer
labor
– Tree shade and leaf/root fertilization made
retention of less vulnerable livestock (and
thus manure) on crop fields feasible; also
some feeding ops with crops
– Increased returns presently on order of
$180/ha/year all activities
• Potential for 300 M ha in Africa
Photo credit: Chris Reij, World Resources Institute

NIGER SHOWS A WAY FOR 300 M HA IN AFRICA
(EVEN OUTSIDE SPECIFIC PROJECTS)
1980s Maradi and Zinder Provinces
2013
 1970’s/1980’s zone of increasing
marginalization, declining crop yields,
decreasing viability of livestock keeping
Now 5 million ha of fields restored
Implementation: foreign NGO, then
“know how” spread by farmers, rural code
reformed 1993 for rights to trees
Impact: Million rural households; herds
sedentarized, additional 500 000 t of
cereals per year feeding 2.5 m people and
extra US$250 million in farm income
Source: WRI analysis using the following datasets: Protected areas: IUCN and UNEP. 2013. The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). Cambridge, UK: UNEP-WCMC.
Croplands: Fritz, S. and L. See. 2013. Global Hybrid Cropland. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA and IFPRI. Precipitation isohyets: FAO/UNEP Desertification and
Mapping Project. 1986. Africa Mean Annual Rainfall. Geneva, Switzerland: UNEP/GRID.
Impact for Niger Zinder case from worldagroforestry.org

IMPROVING THE CONTRIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK
THROUGH IMPROVED TRADE
• Global meat trade has grown 40% in last 10
years
• Yet only 1/10 of world meat (by vol.) is traded;
compare to 1/3 for fish
• Concentration of global supply chain: top 10
had $200 billion revenue in 2013 and heavy
BRIC involvement
• High value market access depends now on
sanitary compliance; much cheape rin Niger
(ex) than financial hedges of risk
• GHG reduction may be future condition for
supplying to high value chains
Photo credit: Mondongo, Flickr
https://www.flickr.com/photos/51378257@N00/11168801095/; figures are from lChapter 3, New Climate
Economy Report. The global Commission on the Economy and Climate, Sept. 16, 2014

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS ON ROLE OF
LIVESTOCK IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
• Critical global need for restoration of productive
landscapes
• Livestock cannot be considered apart from the
larger landscape b/c of the many negative
externalities involved
• Livestock is also one of the very few growing
income sources for smallholder involvement in
restoring landscapes at scale
• Sustainable transformation of farming
requires proactive livestock interventions in a
landscape approach
• Rapid changes driven by the Global South will
continue
Source: Ethiopia, Aaron Minnick, WRI