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The emerging middle class and the world market for beef

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Presented by Shirley Tarawali at the International Livestock Congress, Houston, Texas, 3-4 March 2016

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The emerging middle class and the world market for beef

  1. 1. The emerging middle class and the world market for beef Shirley Tarawali Assistant Director General, International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya Panel session at the International Livestock Congress, Houston, Texas, 3-4 March 2016 ILRI/Stevie Mann
  2. 2. Animalsourcefoods: 5of6highestvalueglobalcommodities (totalvalueofthesefive:overUSInt$700billion) FAOSTAT 2015 (values for 2013) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 0 50 100 150 200 250 Production(MT)millions Netproductionvalue(Int$)billion net production value (Int $) billion production (MT) Cattle meat $171 billion
  3. 3. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries are outpacing those of developed 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050 Millionmetrictonnes developing developed developing at same per cap. as developed (hypothetical)
  4. 4. Drivers of change: population Anticipated change 2013 – 2050 Asia: +20% Africa: +113% Europe: -4%
  5. 5. 2015 GDP growth forecast
  6. 6. By 2050 over two-thirds of the world will live in cities Figures for 2014
  7. 7. Middle class?
  8. 8. Rapidly increasing middle class 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2009 2020 2030 Millionsofpeople N.America EC C/S America Asia Pacific SSA MENA Total ] Middle class ($10-100 per person daily) Nearly 5 billion by 2030: two-thirds of the total
  9. 9. Fewer people below US$1.25/day 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2010 2020 2030 Millions of people below US$1.25/day East Asia Pacific E.Europe Central Asia L.America Carribean MENA S.Asia SSA
  10. 10. Per capita GDP and meat consumption, 2005
  11. 11. 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome % growth in demand for livestock products to 2030 2000 - 2030 11 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome FAO, 2011 Dark bars: Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030 Light bars: new estimates using IMPACT model, 2005 to 2030, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI Beef Pork Poultry Milk
  12. 12. Increase in middle class means increase in beef consumption -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 OECD C/S America Asia Pacific S.Asia SSA MENA % change in number of middle class, 2000 to 2030 0 50 100 150 200 250 OECD C/S America Asia Pacific S.Asia SSA MENA % change in consumption of beef, 2000 to 2030
  13. 13. Demand for beef in 2050 About 90 million tonnes beef needed to meet demand in 2050 N.America 20% SSA 23%Asia 46% Other 11%
  14. 14. Demand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met – the question is how Scenario #1 Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock products Scenario #2 Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock industrial production know-how Scenario #3 Meeting livestock demand by transforming smallholder livestock systems
  15. 15. Replacing the 90% of locally produced animal commodities is not feasible Economically Africa’s food import bill (2013): US $ 44 billion About one fifth is livestock (highest after cereals): Meat: US $ 5 billion; Milk: US $ 4 billion Business as usual: the import bill sky rockets Or for livelihoods Almost 1 billion rely on livestock for livelihoods and produce over 70% of the livestock products today 43% of the agricultural workforce is female
  16. 16. The value of beef imports 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 USDmillions USA CentralAm SEAsia SSAfr NAfr Asia
  17. 17. Sustainable beef production Animal welfare as a component Environmental dimensions - Beef cattle produce over 2,500 million tonnes CO2 eq per annum - Which is 41% of all livestock sector emissions - Emission intensity for beef is over 300kg C02 eq per kg of protein - But there are big opportunities to mitigate emissions, especially where intensities are currently highest (S.Asia, SSA, South America)
  18. 18. Sustainable beef consumption? - Debates over what is ‘appropriate’ consumption…. - Current recommendations 70-90g per capita per day - For many millions a small amount of meat could make a significant contribution to a nutritious diet ILRI/Susan Macmillan
  19. 19. Sustainable animal food systems are a must • Productivity and efficiency: – Sufficient food with lower environmental foot print: Animal health, genetics, feeding • Animal source foods: – Safe, not wasted and consumed in appropriate quantities • Emerging challenges: – Zoonotic diseases – Anti-Microbial Resistance
  20. 20. Beef feeding the middle class: feeding the World? • Understand drivers of demand • Ensure animal welfare is addressed • Address environmental sustainability • Consider the role of beef in diets • Ensure opportunities for positive impacts on livelihoods are not missed ILRI/Stevie Mann
  21. 21. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI. better lives through livestock ilri.org

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