The emerging middle class and
the world market for beef
Shirley Tarawali
Assistant Director General, International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya
Panel session at the International Livestock Congress,
Houston, Texas, 3-4 March 2016
ILRI/Stevie Mann

Animalsourcefoods: 5of6highestvalueglobalcommodities
(totalvalueofthesefive:overUSInt$700billion)
FAOSTAT 2015
(values for 2013)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Production(MT)millions
Netproductionvalue(Int$)billion
net production value (Int $) billion production (MT)
Cattle meat
$171 billion

Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050
Millionmetrictonnes
developing
developed
developing at same
per cap. as
developed
(hypothetical)

Drivers of change: population
Anticipated change 2013 – 2050
Asia: +20%
Africa: +113%
Europe: -4%

2015 GDP growth forecast

By 2050 over two-thirds of the world will
live in cities
Figures for 2014

Middle class?

Rapidly increasing middle class
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2009 2020 2030
Millionsofpeople
N.America EC C/S America Asia Pacific SSA MENA Total
]
Middle class ($10-100 per person daily)
Nearly 5 billion by 2030: two-thirds of the total

Fewer people below US$1.25/day
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2010 2020 2030
Millions of people below US$1.25/day
East Asia Pacific E.Europe Central Asia L.America Carribean MENA S.Asia SSA

Per capita GDP and meat consumption,
2005

0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
% growth in demand for livestock
products to 2030
2000 - 2030
11
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
FAO, 2011
Dark bars: Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030
Light bars: new estimates using IMPACT model, 2005 to 2030, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI
Beef Pork
Poultry Milk

Increase in middle class means
increase in beef consumption
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
OECD C/S America Asia Pacific S.Asia SSA MENA
% change in number of middle class, 2000 to 2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
OECD C/S America Asia Pacific S.Asia SSA MENA
% change in consumption of beef, 2000 to 2030

Demand for beef in 2050
About 90 million tonnes beef needed to meet
demand in 2050
N.America
20%
SSA
23%Asia
46%
Other
11%

Demand for livestock commodities in developing
economies will be met – the question is how
Scenario #1
Meeting livestock demand by
importing livestock products
Scenario #2
Meeting livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how
Scenario #3
Meeting livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems

Replacing the 90% of locally produced
animal commodities is not feasible
Economically
Africa’s food import bill (2013): US $ 44
billion
About one fifth is livestock (highest after
cereals):
Meat: US $ 5 billion; Milk: US $ 4 billion
Business as usual: the import bill sky
rockets
Or for livelihoods
Almost 1 billion rely on livestock for
livelihoods and produce over 70% of the
livestock products today
43% of the agricultural workforce is female

The value of beef imports
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
USDmillions
USA CentralAm SEAsia SSAfr NAfr Asia

Sustainable beef production
Animal welfare as a component
Environmental dimensions
- Beef cattle produce over 2,500 million tonnes CO2 eq per
annum
- Which is 41% of all livestock sector emissions
- Emission intensity for beef is over 300kg C02 eq per kg of
protein
- But there are big opportunities to mitigate emissions,
especially where intensities are currently highest (S.Asia,
SSA, South America)

Sustainable beef consumption?
- Debates over what is
‘appropriate’
consumption….
- Current recommendations
70-90g per capita per day
- For many millions a small
amount of meat could
make a significant
contribution to a nutritious
diet
ILRI/Susan Macmillan

Sustainable animal food systems
are a must
• Productivity and efficiency:
– Sufficient food with lower
environmental foot print: Animal
health, genetics, feeding
• Animal source foods:
– Safe, not wasted and consumed in
appropriate quantities
• Emerging challenges:
– Zoonotic diseases
– Anti-Microbial Resistance

Beef feeding the middle class: feeding the
World?
• Understand drivers
of demand
• Ensure animal
welfare is
addressed
• Address
environmental
sustainability
• Consider the role
of beef in diets
• Ensure
opportunities for
positive impacts on
livelihoods are not
missed
ILRI/Stevie Mann

The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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