Feeding the World in 2050
Trade-offs, synergies and tough choices
for the livestock sector
Jimmy Smith, ILRI Director General
22nd International Grassland Congress
15−19 September 2013, Sydney, Australia

Key messages
3 Addressing
partial truths
and hard trade-offs
in the livestock sector
will open opportunities
1 We’ll need lots
more food grown
much more sustainably
over the next 4 decades
2 Roles of smallholders
/livestock keepers in food
security underestimated

We need lots more food,
produced much more sustainably
1

By 2050 we’ll need huge amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat . . .
1bn tonnes more
cereals to 2050
1bn tonnes
dairy each year
460m tonnes
meat each year

The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional
cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands
Additional Grains
1048 million tonnes
more to 2050
human
consumption
458 million MT
Livestock
430 million MT
Monogastrics mostly
biofuels
160 million MT
(IAASTD 2009)

Grown in more sustainable ways . . .

On the same amount of land . . .

And in face of big changes
- A hotter, often drier, more variable,
more unpredictable climate
- More stringent food quality and safety standards
- Widening gaps between rich and poor
- Increasing threats of animal-to-human diseases
- Increasing urbanization

In brief,
we need
food systems
that are:
profitable
efficient
safe
nutritious
equitable
‘green’
For all

Roles of smallholders / livestock keepers
in global food security underestimated
2

Food insecurity and undernutrition remain persistent
Source: Frank Rijsberman/
CGIAR Consortium

4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock

Per capita % animal-source foods in daily diets
Source: FAO, 2012 using 2005 data

Per capita global kilocalorie
availability from edible animal products
Source: Herrero et al (PNAS, in press)

Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today

Livestock demand is highest in developing countries
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Developing Countries Developed Countries
Meat
Milk
Eggs
Percentage increase 2000−2040
Source: IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results

Developing countries lead in global food production
Source: Herrero et al. 2009
Most global food
comes from crop-
and-livestock
smallholders in
developing
countries

Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive
More than 70% of milk in India and 85% of milk in Kenya
is produced by small-scale livestock keepers

Growth scenarios for the livestock sector
Strong growth Fragile growth High growth
with externalities

Addressing partial truths / hard trade-offs
in livestock sector opens big opportunities
3

Food security is about staple cereals
• Food to many people means
staple cereals
(corn, rice, wheat)
• Grains, as well as tubers
(potatoes, yams, cassava)
and pulses (dried legumes),
do dominate diets of the poor
• They are relatively cheap
and easy to store

But . . .
• Animal-source foods
help meet global
nutritional & food needs
• Milk, meat, eggs provide
protein, energy,
micronutrients
• Livestock livelihoods are
means to obtain:
- Manure for soil fertility
- Traction for cropping
- Regular incomes
- Employment for 1.3b

Livestock compete with human food
• Half of the world’s
grain is used for
animal feed
• Feed crops are grown
on 0.5 billion ha
• As much as 70%
of the world’s
agricultural land is
related to livestock

But . . .
• Grazing systems, which
comprise 1/3 of the
Earth’s surface,
produce meat and milk
from grass and other
inedible materials
• 70% of livestock diets
on mixed farms are
stover and other
wastes / by-products
of crop production

Importance of grazed biomass for livestock
Grass represents 50% of the biomass consumed by livestock
Herrero et al PNAS (in press)

Meat and milk are bad for your health
More than
1 billion people
are overweight
and at risk from
associated cancers,
diabetes and
cardiovascular disease

But . . .
1 billion people
are
undernourished
Consumption of even
small amounts of
animal-source foods:
- combats undernutrition
- improves cognitive
development
- increases physical
growth and activity

Livestock cause climate change
• Livestock contribute
12−18% of global GHGs
• Livestock emit methane,
the most potent GHG
• The developing world
contributes 75% of global
ruminant non-CO2
emissions:
- 61% from mixed systems
- 12% from grazing

But . . .
• Huge variations exist in
GHG emissions levels
• Developing countries
have as yet untapped
potential to mitigate
GHG emissions:
- Through improved
efficiencies (e.g., better
feeds & feeding systems)
- Through carbon
sequestration on well-
managed rangelands

Global greenhouse gas efficiency
per kilogram of animal protein produced
Large livestock production inefficiencies
in the developing world present an opportunity
Herrero et al PNAS (in press)

Livestock production uses too much water
One-third of all
agricultural water
is used by the
livestock sector:
- 90% to grow feeds
- 10% for livestock
drinking

But . . .
Developing countries
can greatly improve
‘livestock water productivity’
in production of milk and meat:
- By three-fold through
combinations of improved feed,
water and animal management
methods
- By 45% through better
management of rangelands

Livestock production degrades lands
65% of deforestation
in the Amazon is
caused by livestock-
related activities:
- 600,000 ha are
deforested each year
for planting crops that
will feed livestock

But . . .
Rangelands, which cover
up to 40% of the Earth’s
surface, comprise a vast
carbon sink:
- With moderate
livestock grazing and
good management,
Africa’s rangelands
alone could sequester
8.6 million tonnes of
carbon each year

Key messages
3 Addressing
partial truths
and hard trade-offs
in the livestock sector
will open opportunities
1 We’ll need lots
more food grown
much more sustainably
over the next 4 decades
2 Roles of smallholders
/livestock keepers in food
security underestimated

Last words
The developing world’s livestock
sector is diverse, changing, growing
This presents opportunities for
environmental harm and other ills
It also offers us opportunities −
perhaps our biggest opportunities −
for influencing animal agriculture
for the benefit of all

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