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Mitigation potentials of the livestock sector

                 Mario Herrero




                                                  CCAFS Seminar
                                     Nairobi   13th
                                                  November 2012
Structure of the talk
• Overview of the livestock sector

• GHG emissions

• Mitigation potentials and option

• Mitigation examples

• Conclusions
The challenge ahead
• Need to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050 (1/3 more than
  now)

• At a lower environmental cost (roughly the same
  land, low emissions, water and nutrient use)

• In a socially and economically acceptable way
  (equitably, at the right prices, etc)

• Food systems have been changing and are likely to
  change even more!

• How does this translate locally and into an actionable
  research agenda?
Livestock – the big numbers

–    17 billion domestic animals globally! (SOFA 2009)


–    30% of the Earth’s ice-free surface occupied by
     livestock systems (Reid et al 2008)


–    1/3 of global cropland used for feed production


–    14-18% of global greenhouse gas emissions (FAO
     2006)


–    32% of global freshwater consumption (Heinke et
     al, forthcoming)
Livestock’s economic benefits

–    Livestock are a significant global asset: value of at least
     $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock
     industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008)


–    Livestock industries organised in long market chains that
     employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999)


–    Livestock GDP: 20-40% of agricultural GDP


–    Incomes for producers (more constant than crops)


–    Livestock as a risk management tool, especially for the
     poor
At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on livestock




                                  Thornton et al. 2002, revised 2009
                                                                  6
Livestock and nutrition
–   Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie
    consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT
    2008) – Africa 8% of calories
–   Providers of food for at least 830 million food insecure people
    (Gerber
–   Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but…
    highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in
    the developing World
–   .              Europe - 2000                                    SSA - 2000
                                                               3%

                                                                3%
                   10%             Meat                                                 Meat
                                                         24%        4%
                         11%       Dairy                                                Dairy
        37%                        Fruit & Vegetables                                   Fruit & Vegetables
                          5%                                                            Cereals
                                   Cereals              3%
                                   Roots & Tubers                                       Roots & Tubers
                                                                         47%
          1%                       Dryland crops        16%                             Dryland crops
                    31%            Others                                               Others
              5%
                                                                               Herrero et al 2008a
The ‘livestock revolution’: as people get richer they consume more meat

     People want to eat chicken, pork and milk!




                                                               FAO: SOFA2011

                                                                               8
The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal
    grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands
    (IAASTD 2009)


                     Grains
               1048 million tonnes
                  more to 2050




                                 human
Livestock
                              consumption
430 million MT
Monogastrics mostly
                             458 million MT



                     biofuels
                  160 million MT
Livestock and GHG emissions
Emissions from the agricultural sector




      Emissions projected to grow as the sector grows due to
      increased demands for food, feed and other resources


                                                   Smith et al 2007
Livestock’s long shadow
A food-chain perspective of GHG emissions
•   Emissions from feed production
     – chemical fertilizer fabrication and application
     – on-farm fossil fuel use
     – livestock-related land use changes
     – C release from soils
     – [Savannah burning]

•   Emissions from livestock rearing
     – enteric fermentation
     – animal manure management
     – [respiration by livestock]

•   Post harvest emissions
     – slaughtering and processing
     – international transportation
                                                  Steinfeld et al 2006
     – [national transportation]
Livestock and GHG: 18% of global
emissions
                                   ProductionN. fert. production
                                   Chemical fertilisants N
                                   Energie fossile fuel
                                   On-farm fossil ferme
                                   Déforestation
                                   Deforestation
N2O
                                   Sol cultivé from ag. soils
                                   OM release
                                   Pasture degradation
                                   Désertification pâturages
                                   Transformation fuel
                                   Processing fossil
             Deforestation         Transport fossil fuel
                                   Transport
                             CO2
                                   Fermentation ruminale
                                   Enteric fermentation
                                   Manure storage / processing
                                   Effluents, stockage/traitement
                                   N fertilization
                                   Epandage fertilisants N
        Enteric                    Legume production
                                   Production légumineuses
      fermentation                 Manure storage / processing
                                   Effluents, stockage/traitement
                                   Manure spreading / dropping
                                   Effluents, épandage/dépôt
                                   Manu indirect emissions
                                   Effluents, emission indirecte
      CH4
                                    Prepared by Bonneau, 2008
Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced




   Large inefficiencies in the developing world – an opportunity?

                                                    Herrero et al. forthcoming (ILRI/IIASA)
Mitigation potentials




Large potentials associated to livestock


                                           Smith et al 2007
Mitigation potentials of agriculture (Smith et al 2007)
Mitigation options




                     Smith et al 2007
Mitigation options

• Reductions in emissions: significant potential!

    –   Managing demand for animal products
    –   Structural changes: changing production systems
    –   Improved / intensified diets for ruminants
    –   Reduction of animal numbers
    –   Reduced livestock-induced deforestation
    –   Change of animal species
    –   Feed additives to reduce enteric fermentation
    –   Manure management (feed additives, methane production,
          regulations for manure disposal)




               Herrero et al. (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2009, 1: 111-120)
Demand management

Consuming less meat or different types of
meat could lower GHG emissions




 Less land needed
 ....but social and economic impacts?
 ....displacement of people?
 …nutrition of the poor?

                                    Stehfest et al. 2009. Climatic Change
Range of GHG intensities for livestock
    products in OECD-countries
                               200
                               180
 kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein




                               160
                               140
                               120
                               100
                                80
                                60
                                40
                                20
                                 0
                                     Pig   Poultry   Beef     Milk      Eggs


                                                       Source: DeVries & DeBoer (2009)
Feed/land use intensities: key driver for the efficiency of the
           livestock sector (Herrero et al. PNAS forthcoming)

              beef                            dairy




Depend on land productivity, feed quality, animal species
and others
Mitigation 1.01
Sustainable intensification is essential
The better we feed cows the less methane per kg of milk they produce

                                               450.00


                                               400.00


                                               350.00
      methane - kg CO2 / kg protein produced




                                               300.00


                                               250.00

                                                                                                                              developed
                                               200.00
                                                                                                                              developing

                                               150.00                                                                         BRICS


                                               100.00


                                                50.00


                                                 0.00
                                                        7.50   8.50            9.50          10.50      11.50
                                                                      metabolisable energy (MJ/kg DM)


                                                                                                          Herrero et al forthcoming (PNAS)
Impact of alternative feeding strategies on milk, manure and methane
     production (% change) (Bryan et al, Climatic Change in press – IFPRI/ILRI)
  District        Scenario      Milk production   Manure       Methane      Methane per
                                                  production   production   kg milk
  Garissa         Prosopis
                   1.5 kg             64                 0           -2         -40
                    3 kg              136                0           -5         -60
  Gem            Desmodium
                    1 kg               21                 5          -3         -20
                    2 kg               36                10          0          -26
  Mbeere         Napier grass
                    2 kg               12                11           3          -8
                    3 kg               17                16           2         -12
  Njoro             Hay
                    1 kg               18                -5          6          -10
                    2 kg               49                -5          18         -21
  Mukurweni      Desmodium
                    1 kg               9                 11           2         -7
                    2 kg               8                 11           0         -7
  Othaya            Hay
                    2 kg               9                 11           2         -7
                    4 kg               8                 11           0         -7
  Siaya          Napier grass
                    2 kg               42                 0          12         -21
                    3 kg               79                10          16         -35

  6 districts      Average             36                6            4         -20
Mitigation options – intensifying diets




        Reduction of animal numbers needs to be considered seriously

        Increasing adoption rates of mitigation practices essential also

                                                Thornton and Herrero 2010 (PNAS 107, 19667-19672)
GLOBIOM model results: Annual average GHG emissions over 2020-2030
Reduced emissions from methane but primarily CO2 from land use changes




                                            Havlik et al (forthcoming – IIASA/ILRI)




                                                                           25
Crop yield increases can lead to mitigation in the
livestock sector
• Alternative crop yield scenarios
   – S0: No crop yield increase                                 – B: Baseline - linear historical trend
   – S: -50% yield improvement                                  – C: + 100% in developing regions
• Fixed demand on B reference:
  no rebound effect




   Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions
   AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
Results
                            Commodity price index 2030/2000




  Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions   27
  AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
Results
                   Ruminants distribution across the systems
                     More transitions towards mixed systems




  Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions   28
  AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
Livestock production could increase at a faster pace if crop yields were
                              improved




                        Milk            Ruminant meat               Monogastrics meat & Eggs


    Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions   29
    AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
Results
                               Land cover change 2000-2030




  Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions   30
  AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
Results               Average annual GHG emissions (2000-2030)
                      Difference between scenarios : 2 Gt CO2 eq!




  Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions
  AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
Can we tap the potential for carbon sequestration in
rangeland systems?


Largest land use system

Potentially a large C sink

Could be an important
income diversification
source

Difficulties in:
Measuring and
monitoring C stocks

Establishment of
payment schemes
                             Potential for carbon
Dealing with mobile          sequestration in rangelands
pastoralists                 (Conant and Paustian 2002)
Livelihoods systems = Complex production systems

    Need to think of system-level mitigation practices
Essential for understanding adaptation/mitigation synergies




                                Herrero et al (2010) Science 325, 822-825
Trade-offs, synergies, co-benefits?


Large differences depending on type of livelihood
system and its objectives


                                 income
                                   1
                                 0.5
    external inputs                                 food security
                                    0


                water use                     GHG


GHG mitigation not necessarily a good                    mixed
proxy for overall environmental efficiency!
                                                         pastoral
Some conclusions
• Mitigation in livestock systems: Large potential!

• Mitigation in livestock systems requires the fundamental
  recognition that societal benefits need to be met at the
  same time as the environmental ones

• Essential to link mitigation to broader agricultural
  development efforts to increase adoption rates of key
  practices

• No single option best: need packages of
  technologies, policies, incentives

• Understanding trade-offs requires a ‘multi-currency’
  approach:
  energy, emissions, water, nutrients, incomes, etc along
  value chains (life cycles)…and adaptation/mitigation
Researchable issues
• Social and economic impacts of mitigation

• More needed on scenarios of consumption

• Mechanisms for implementing mitigation schemes
  (policies: carrots, sticks, institutions, etc): need to
  increase adoption rates!

• Carbon sequestration: worth it or not as a practice for
  rangelands?

• What is sustainable intensification? Limits?
Thank you!

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Livestock mitigation- Mario Herrero - Nov 2012

  • 1. Mitigation potentials of the livestock sector Mario Herrero CCAFS Seminar Nairobi 13th November 2012
  • 2. Structure of the talk • Overview of the livestock sector • GHG emissions • Mitigation potentials and option • Mitigation examples • Conclusions
  • 3. The challenge ahead • Need to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050 (1/3 more than now) • At a lower environmental cost (roughly the same land, low emissions, water and nutrient use) • In a socially and economically acceptable way (equitably, at the right prices, etc) • Food systems have been changing and are likely to change even more! • How does this translate locally and into an actionable research agenda?
  • 4. Livestock – the big numbers – 17 billion domestic animals globally! (SOFA 2009) – 30% of the Earth’s ice-free surface occupied by livestock systems (Reid et al 2008) – 1/3 of global cropland used for feed production – 14-18% of global greenhouse gas emissions (FAO 2006) – 32% of global freshwater consumption (Heinke et al, forthcoming)
  • 5. Livestock’s economic benefits – Livestock are a significant global asset: value of at least $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008) – Livestock industries organised in long market chains that employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999) – Livestock GDP: 20-40% of agricultural GDP – Incomes for producers (more constant than crops) – Livestock as a risk management tool, especially for the poor
  • 6. At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on livestock Thornton et al. 2002, revised 2009 6
  • 7. Livestock and nutrition – Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008) – Africa 8% of calories – Providers of food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber – Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in the developing World – . Europe - 2000 SSA - 2000 3% 3% 10% Meat Meat 24% 4% 11% Dairy Dairy 37% Fruit & Vegetables Fruit & Vegetables 5% Cereals Cereals 3% Roots & Tubers Roots & Tubers 47% 1% Dryland crops 16% Dryland crops 31% Others Others 5% Herrero et al 2008a
  • 8. The ‘livestock revolution’: as people get richer they consume more meat People want to eat chicken, pork and milk! FAO: SOFA2011 8
  • 9. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009) Grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 human Livestock consumption 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly 458 million MT biofuels 160 million MT
  • 10. Livestock and GHG emissions
  • 11. Emissions from the agricultural sector Emissions projected to grow as the sector grows due to increased demands for food, feed and other resources Smith et al 2007
  • 12. Livestock’s long shadow A food-chain perspective of GHG emissions • Emissions from feed production – chemical fertilizer fabrication and application – on-farm fossil fuel use – livestock-related land use changes – C release from soils – [Savannah burning] • Emissions from livestock rearing – enteric fermentation – animal manure management – [respiration by livestock] • Post harvest emissions – slaughtering and processing – international transportation Steinfeld et al 2006 – [national transportation]
  • 13. Livestock and GHG: 18% of global emissions ProductionN. fert. production Chemical fertilisants N Energie fossile fuel On-farm fossil ferme Déforestation Deforestation N2O Sol cultivé from ag. soils OM release Pasture degradation Désertification pâturages Transformation fuel Processing fossil Deforestation Transport fossil fuel Transport CO2 Fermentation ruminale Enteric fermentation Manure storage / processing Effluents, stockage/traitement N fertilization Epandage fertilisants N Enteric Legume production Production légumineuses fermentation Manure storage / processing Effluents, stockage/traitement Manure spreading / dropping Effluents, épandage/dépôt Manu indirect emissions Effluents, emission indirecte CH4 Prepared by Bonneau, 2008
  • 14. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced Large inefficiencies in the developing world – an opportunity? Herrero et al. forthcoming (ILRI/IIASA)
  • 15. Mitigation potentials Large potentials associated to livestock Smith et al 2007
  • 16. Mitigation potentials of agriculture (Smith et al 2007)
  • 17. Mitigation options Smith et al 2007
  • 18. Mitigation options • Reductions in emissions: significant potential! – Managing demand for animal products – Structural changes: changing production systems – Improved / intensified diets for ruminants – Reduction of animal numbers – Reduced livestock-induced deforestation – Change of animal species – Feed additives to reduce enteric fermentation – Manure management (feed additives, methane production, regulations for manure disposal) Herrero et al. (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2009, 1: 111-120)
  • 19. Demand management Consuming less meat or different types of meat could lower GHG emissions Less land needed ....but social and economic impacts? ....displacement of people? …nutrition of the poor? Stehfest et al. 2009. Climatic Change
  • 20. Range of GHG intensities for livestock products in OECD-countries 200 180 kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Pig Poultry Beef Milk Eggs Source: DeVries & DeBoer (2009)
  • 21. Feed/land use intensities: key driver for the efficiency of the livestock sector (Herrero et al. PNAS forthcoming) beef dairy Depend on land productivity, feed quality, animal species and others
  • 22. Mitigation 1.01 Sustainable intensification is essential The better we feed cows the less methane per kg of milk they produce 450.00 400.00 350.00 methane - kg CO2 / kg protein produced 300.00 250.00 developed 200.00 developing 150.00 BRICS 100.00 50.00 0.00 7.50 8.50 9.50 10.50 11.50 metabolisable energy (MJ/kg DM) Herrero et al forthcoming (PNAS)
  • 23. Impact of alternative feeding strategies on milk, manure and methane production (% change) (Bryan et al, Climatic Change in press – IFPRI/ILRI) District Scenario Milk production Manure Methane Methane per production production kg milk Garissa Prosopis 1.5 kg 64 0 -2 -40 3 kg 136 0 -5 -60 Gem Desmodium 1 kg 21 5 -3 -20 2 kg 36 10 0 -26 Mbeere Napier grass 2 kg 12 11 3 -8 3 kg 17 16 2 -12 Njoro Hay 1 kg 18 -5 6 -10 2 kg 49 -5 18 -21 Mukurweni Desmodium 1 kg 9 11 2 -7 2 kg 8 11 0 -7 Othaya Hay 2 kg 9 11 2 -7 4 kg 8 11 0 -7 Siaya Napier grass 2 kg 42 0 12 -21 3 kg 79 10 16 -35 6 districts Average 36 6 4 -20
  • 24. Mitigation options – intensifying diets Reduction of animal numbers needs to be considered seriously Increasing adoption rates of mitigation practices essential also Thornton and Herrero 2010 (PNAS 107, 19667-19672)
  • 25. GLOBIOM model results: Annual average GHG emissions over 2020-2030 Reduced emissions from methane but primarily CO2 from land use changes Havlik et al (forthcoming – IIASA/ILRI) 25
  • 26. Crop yield increases can lead to mitigation in the livestock sector • Alternative crop yield scenarios – S0: No crop yield increase – B: Baseline - linear historical trend – S: -50% yield improvement – C: + 100% in developing regions • Fixed demand on B reference: no rebound effect Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
  • 27. Results Commodity price index 2030/2000 Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions 27 AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
  • 28. Results Ruminants distribution across the systems More transitions towards mixed systems Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions 28 AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
  • 29. Livestock production could increase at a faster pace if crop yields were improved Milk Ruminant meat Monogastrics meat & Eggs Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions 29 AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
  • 30. Results Land cover change 2000-2030 Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions 30 AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
  • 31. Results Average annual GHG emissions (2000-2030) Difference between scenarios : 2 Gt CO2 eq! Havlík et al. Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for LUC and GHG Emissions AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, August 12-14, 2012
  • 32. Can we tap the potential for carbon sequestration in rangeland systems? Largest land use system Potentially a large C sink Could be an important income diversification source Difficulties in: Measuring and monitoring C stocks Establishment of payment schemes Potential for carbon Dealing with mobile sequestration in rangelands pastoralists (Conant and Paustian 2002)
  • 33. Livelihoods systems = Complex production systems Need to think of system-level mitigation practices Essential for understanding adaptation/mitigation synergies Herrero et al (2010) Science 325, 822-825
  • 34. Trade-offs, synergies, co-benefits? Large differences depending on type of livelihood system and its objectives income 1 0.5 external inputs food security 0 water use GHG GHG mitigation not necessarily a good mixed proxy for overall environmental efficiency! pastoral
  • 35. Some conclusions • Mitigation in livestock systems: Large potential! • Mitigation in livestock systems requires the fundamental recognition that societal benefits need to be met at the same time as the environmental ones • Essential to link mitigation to broader agricultural development efforts to increase adoption rates of key practices • No single option best: need packages of technologies, policies, incentives • Understanding trade-offs requires a ‘multi-currency’ approach: energy, emissions, water, nutrients, incomes, etc along value chains (life cycles)…and adaptation/mitigation
  • 36. Researchable issues • Social and economic impacts of mitigation • More needed on scenarios of consumption • Mechanisms for implementing mitigation schemes (policies: carrots, sticks, institutions, etc): need to increase adoption rates! • Carbon sequestration: worth it or not as a practice for rangelands? • What is sustainable intensification? Limits?