Socio-economic and agrodevelopment trends and drivers for
Asia

INTERVENTIONS
AGRARIAN SYSTEM
CROPS
LIVESTOCK
FOREST
OFF-FARM
MARKETS
SHOCKS
WATER
SOCIAL RELATIONS
FARM SYSTEM
ORGANISATIONS
TRENDS
LAND
VILLAGE SYSTEM
TRAJECTORIES

Levels of drivers
1. Global drivers of change
2. Country specific drivers of change
– Infrastructure and policies,
3. Local drivers of change

Global drivers
• Rising energy costs
• World trade and globalisation
– Increased distance food travels
– What does WTO mean for Lao
• World prices
• Biotec
• Climate change

Population growth and demography
•
•
•
•
Total
Urban:rural
Aging work force in rural areas
Currently low dependency ratio is some
countries like Laos….that is going to change

Consumption
•
•
•
•
•
Change in incomes
Substitution between foods
Food quality
Food safety
Ethical, environmental issues

Labour
•
•
•
•
Availability of labour
Cost of labour
Mechanisation
Diversified rural livelihoods

Rising input costs
• Fertiliser
– Linked to energy (reductions from highs on the
last decade)
• Irrigation

Access to land
•
•
•
•
Urbanisation
Consolidation
Concessions
Enclosure of the commons
• Process of bringing smallholders back into
systems in former colonials
• Land grabs in new areas

Access to finance

Biofuels
• Crops now linked to energy markets
• Crops linked to developments in other
crop/tree markets
– Already were linked in the starch market
– Now linked in biofuel sector

National food security
• Main crops
• Secondary crops not given preference
– Inefficiencies
• What happens if China gives up on selfsufficiency objectives

Price controls vs support for farmers
• Concern over rising prices
– Price controls along the value chain
• Thailand rice support

Infrastructure
• Access to remote areas
– Market access
– Changing commodities (from subsistence to
commercialisation
– Differential impacts
• Potential for a backwash effect