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Cees de Haan Consultant World Bank Where are the livestock - in what systems, what genetic background and what do they eat?   With some implications
Overview of presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Production and consumption trends
Trends World Meat Production and Trade  Source FAOSTAT
Consumption levels  Source FAOSTAT
Trends  Global food consumption growth Source OECD-FAO 2008
Drivers
Demand drivers  Population Growth  Source: UN 2003 millions
Demand drivers Urbanization number of persons Source: UN 2003
Demand drivers  Higher income, higher meat consumption Source Delgado et al (1999)
Demand drivers Income Growth Per capita GDP growth rates at market prices Source: WB 2005
Supply Drivers:   Livestock Technology index; 1961=100 Source:  LLS (2006)
Supply drivers Genetics Source Collin et al (2008)
Supply drivers Narrowing genetic base ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  FAO (2007)
Supply Drivers   Grain prices and regional use Maize, US, US$ per bushel, deflated Source:  LLS (2006) and FAOSTAT
Supply drivers Feed categories consumption Source FAOSTAT
Where are they?
Where are they? Estimated distribution of livestock production systems Source:  LLS (2006)
Trends Regional meat production Million metric tons Source:  LLS (2006)
Where are they? Production systems Source:  LLS (2006)
Where are they?  Geographical shift over time ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where are they? Location of industrial pig sector in southern Viet Nam Source:  LLS (2006)
Where are they? South Brazil - Geographical shifts  1992 - 2001 period  Hens birds/year/mun. Soy bean tons/year/mun. Humans persons/year/mun. Swine heads/year/mun.
Where are they? Enterprise form ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some Implications for global public goods Environment Social equity Public Health
Environmental effects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],GHG emission per kg product declining?
The equity implications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The health implications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Editorial: Meat and the Planet  …… ..  There are no easy trade-offs when it comes to global warming — such as cutting back on cattle to make room for cars. The human passion for meat is certainly not about to end anytime soon. As “Livestock’s Long Shadow” makes clear, our health and the health of the planet depend on pushing livestock production in more sustainable directions.   NYT, December 27, 2006

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Trends in Livestock Production and Consumption - Cees de Haan, World Bank

  • 1. Cees de Haan Consultant World Bank Where are the livestock - in what systems, what genetic background and what do they eat? With some implications
  • 2.
  • 4. Trends World Meat Production and Trade Source FAOSTAT
  • 5. Consumption levels Source FAOSTAT
  • 6. Trends Global food consumption growth Source OECD-FAO 2008
  • 8. Demand drivers Population Growth Source: UN 2003 millions
  • 9. Demand drivers Urbanization number of persons Source: UN 2003
  • 10. Demand drivers Higher income, higher meat consumption Source Delgado et al (1999)
  • 11. Demand drivers Income Growth Per capita GDP growth rates at market prices Source: WB 2005
  • 12. Supply Drivers: Livestock Technology index; 1961=100 Source: LLS (2006)
  • 13. Supply drivers Genetics Source Collin et al (2008)
  • 14.
  • 15. Supply Drivers Grain prices and regional use Maize, US, US$ per bushel, deflated Source: LLS (2006) and FAOSTAT
  • 16. Supply drivers Feed categories consumption Source FAOSTAT
  • 18. Where are they? Estimated distribution of livestock production systems Source: LLS (2006)
  • 19. Trends Regional meat production Million metric tons Source: LLS (2006)
  • 20. Where are they? Production systems Source: LLS (2006)
  • 21.
  • 22. Where are they? Location of industrial pig sector in southern Viet Nam Source: LLS (2006)
  • 23. Where are they? South Brazil - Geographical shifts 1992 - 2001 period Hens birds/year/mun. Soy bean tons/year/mun. Humans persons/year/mun. Swine heads/year/mun.
  • 24.
  • 25. Some Implications for global public goods Environment Social equity Public Health
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. Editorial: Meat and the Planet …… .. There are no easy trade-offs when it comes to global warming — such as cutting back on cattle to make room for cars. The human passion for meat is certainly not about to end anytime soon. As “Livestock’s Long Shadow” makes clear, our health and the health of the planet depend on pushing livestock production in more sustainable directions. NYT, December 27, 2006

Editor's Notes

  1. Basically the story for the meat sector is that the growth which characterised the previous decade will slow and growth in the various meats while lower will be more stable cross meats. Review the figures.