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Adapting livestock systems to climate change in South Asia M. Herrero, P. K. Thornton and I. Wright Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the livestock sector 28 th -29 th October 2010 | Kathmandu, Nepal

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<ul><li>Background </li></ul><ul><li>Living with uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>Climate change impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation options </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>Outline

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<ul><li>Agriculture in South Asia is changing rapidly and there are large numbers of people to feed </li></ul><ul><li>Need to try to understand how production systems will change in the future: the target is moving! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>for designing a more coherent and dynamic research and policy agenda that benefits the poor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>for targeting investments more adequately </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For reducing vulnerability and poverty </li></ul></ul>Background

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Lots of drivers of future change <ul><li>Population / Urbanization </li></ul><ul><li>Growth in demand and its nature </li></ul><ul><li>Increased competition for natural resources </li></ul><ul><li>Trade / exchange of knowledge and </li></ul><ul><li>products </li></ul><ul><li>Climate change – warmer and more variable </li></ul>

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Human population UNEP 2007

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Revised demand for livestock products to 2050 Rosegrant et al 2009 Annual per capita consumption Total consumption year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt) Developing 2002 2050 28 44 44 78 137 326 222 585 Developed 2002 2050 78 94 202 216 102 126 265 295

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Cereal yields Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank 2007

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Area under cultivation and rates of growth in cereal yields World Bank 2007

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Mixed intensive systems in the developing World are under significant pressures (Herrero et al. 2010) <ul><li>2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in Asia </li></ul><ul><li>150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry, increasing by 30-40% to 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice </li></ul><ul><li>Others increasing: maize (East Asia) </li></ul><ul><li>All in the same land! </li></ul><ul><li>Severe water constraints in some places </li></ul><ul><li>Soil fertility problems in others </li></ul>

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...and then there’s climate change...

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Why is climate change so important to agriculture-based countries? de Jong (2005), World Bank (2005) Ethiopia: Rainfall Variability and Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

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Climate change: we need to act even when there are still uncertainties...but the science is improving!

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<ul><li>Climate change recognised long ago… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change science timeline </li></ul></ul>Courtesy of R. Conant 2007 IPCC AR4: effects of warming evident; cost of reducing emissions far less than damage they will cause 1859Tyndall: some gases absorb IR; could drive climate change 1897 Chamberlin: model of global C exchange 1956 Phillips: 1 st somewhat realistic global climate model 1938 Callendar: CO 2 greenhouse global warming is underway 1896 Arrhenius: 1 st calculation of anthropogenic global warming 1995 IPCC 2 nd report: “signature of human activities” 1988 IPCC established; 1 st report 1990 1976 Deforestation recognized as important driver of climate change 1958 Keeling: Atm. CO 2 measurements begin at Mauna Loa 1930s Global warming trend since late 19 th century reported

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But the policy frameworks have been slowly implemented Climate policy timeline 1992: Rio Treaty – establishes UNFCCC A modest proposal? N ear-term implementation of a global policy that affects all parts of everyone’s lives. Courtesy of R. Conant 2008-2012: 1 st Kyoto compliance period 2005: Kyoto into effect 2001: Marrakech accords 1997: Kyoto Protocol 1992: US Energy policy act; incl. Section 1605(b)

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P.G. Jones CIAT Land Use Project March 2004 Temperature Random series gently rising Number of high events increases Number of low events decreases Comfort Zone

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What are the impacts of climate change on livestock systems?

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Increases in temperature Increases in boreal winter and summer rainfall in places but more variable More snow melt Higher frequency of extreme events (rainfall and wind – cyclones) Disruption of monsoon patterns Climate change impacts in South Asia (IPCC 2007)

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Asia | Length of growing period | Current conditions

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Asia | Changes in the length of growing period | 2000 – 2050 (Thornton et al 2008)

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Percent change in annual runoff by 2041-60 relative to 1900-70, scenario A1B, using an ensemble of 12 climate models (Milly et al., 2005, as in Fig 3.4 in AR4-WGII) More runoff

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Increases in precipitation may not translate into higher crop yields due to increased rainfall variability...and only if input supply is appropriate

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A game of winners and losers… Simulated percentage maize production changes to 2030 and 2050, by country and system Mean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenario Thornton et al. (2010) Winners Losers National Production Mixed rainfed temperate Mixed rainfed humid Mixed rainfed arid 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 Burundi 9.1 9.1 14.4 18.1 -1.8 -8.8 - - Kenya 15.0 17.8 33.3 46.5 -4.6 -9.8 -1.1 -8.4 Rwanda 10.8 14.9 13.4 18.8 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.7 Tanzania -3.1 -8.1 7.5 8.7 -1.6 -6.4 -5.1 -11.1 Uganda -2.2 -8.6 4.9 3.1 -4.6 -12.9 -1.1 -6.3

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<ul><li>Mostly mediated via changes in land use and ecosystems </li></ul><ul><li>Not completely understood </li></ul><ul><li>Significant implications for: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Land use </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Food security </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Production of feeds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distribution of diseases and/or their vectors (i.e. tryps) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water availability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Biodiversity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Green house gas emissions (i.e methane) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased frequency of climatic extreme events (drought/floods) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>erosion, soil degradation </li></ul></ul>Climate change impacts on livestock systems

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<ul><li>Other key issues in scarce resource situations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Power structures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Governance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Equity / Gender issues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vulnerability </li></ul></ul>Climate change impacts on livestock systems

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Adaptation to climate change in livestock systems

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Adaptation options will depend largely on the how we shape the world <ul><li>Several options exist though largely dependent on our vision of world development and how it plays out in different regions </li></ul><ul><li>Lots of scenarios and uncertainty! </li></ul><ul><li>Different paradigms of agricultural development (industrial vs pro-poor smallholders, large vs family farms) </li></ul><ul><li>Globalisation and trade patterns </li></ul><ul><li>Consumption patterns </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Roles and incentives for technology adoption </li></ul><ul><li>Growth in other sectors </li></ul><ul><li>Power relationships </li></ul>

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Main types of options <ul><li>Sustainable intensification </li></ul><ul><li>Extensification </li></ul><ul><li>Income diversification </li></ul><ul><li>Exit from agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>All require a mixture of management, technology / supporting policies and investments </li></ul><ul><li>No single path best, mixtures required in different parts of the world </li></ul>

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Sustainable intensification Some features <ul><li>Appropriate for some mid to high potential areas </li></ul><ul><li>Technology / management essential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improved feeding systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Better breeds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inputs (fertiliser / supplementation) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Market incentives / creation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Service and input provision </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regulations and standards </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Investment in infrastructure (roads, post-harvest facilities, cooling plants, others) </li></ul>Herrero et al 2010

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Pros and cons <ul><li>Potentially very easy and cheap to increase productivity, especially in smallholder systems with large yield gaps but market incentives are needed </li></ul><ul><li>Some adaptation practices can also lead to mitigation and vice-versa </li></ul><ul><ul><li>i.e. Improved feeding : higher milk yields / lower GHG per unit of product </li></ul></ul><ul><li>How do we define it and when does it become unsustainable? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No guidelines or indicators widely applicable for a range of circumstances / systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Though lots of progress in Europe </li></ul></ul>Herrero et al 2010

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Diversification of livelihood strategies <ul><li>Common in many systems (Thapa et al.) </li></ul><ul><li>Diversification of income with farm or non-farm enterprises </li></ul><ul><li>Income and cash flow stability </li></ul><ul><li>Risk reduction </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced variability of food supply / income (mostly in arid areas) </li></ul>

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Some examples of adaptation options <ul><li>Breed or species changes (crops and livestock) </li></ul><ul><li>Rangeland management </li></ul><ul><li>Development of water sources </li></ul><ul><li>Supplementation strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Disease control and surveillance </li></ul><ul><li>Policies, support tools and regulations (including insurance, early warning, etc) </li></ul><ul><li>Payments for ecosystems services (water, biodiversity, etc) </li></ul><ul><li>Alternative activities: fish farming, more cropping, horticulture where possible, other livestock (chickens) </li></ul><ul><li>Off farm-income </li></ul>

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In intensive systems, feed shortages for ruminants might increase demand for cereals further. If these end up being fed on grains…this might lead to reduce food consumption of poor people further grains livestock products human consumption livestock energy Monogastrics mostly + ruminants Further increases?

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‘ Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk and meat increases India quotes from M Blummel ‘ Stovers transported more than 400 km to be sold’ ‘ Price has doubled in 5 years, now 1/3 (2/3) of grain value of sorghum’ ‘ Farmers paying for stover quality’ Herrero et al. in prep

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Conclusions <ul><li>Climate change is happening but we need to act even if the magnitude of the impacts is uncertain </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts of climate change on livestock and agriculture in South Asia heterogeneous but potentially severe </li></ul><ul><li>A game of winners and losers </li></ul><ul><li>Need significant investment in adaptation (infra-structure, markets will be essential) </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation: No silver bullets, suites of alternatives </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Good development is the best solution for dealing with climate change and variability’ </li></ul><ul><li>Large role for research (crops, livestock, systems, value chains, markets, innovation systems and others) </li></ul>

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Thank you