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Program Evaluation & Review
                                                                                         Technique (PERT)
                                                                            • PERT was developed by the US Navy for the
                                                                              planning and control of the Polaris missile
           Program Evaluation & Review                                        program
                 Technique (PERT)                                           • The emphasis of PERT is on completing the
                                                                              program in the shortest possible time.
                               Presented by:                                • PERT has the ability to cope with uncertain
                                           Anupam Kumar                       activity completion times.
                                                  Reader                    • e.g.
                                             SMS Varanasi                        – for a particular activity the most likely completion
                                                                                   time is 4 weeks but it could be anywhere between 3
                                                                                   weeks and 8 weeks.




           Program Evaluation & Review
                                                                                                               PERT
                 Technique (PERT)
       • In PERT activities are shown as                                    • The procedure of PERT takes into
          – a network of precedence relationships using                       consideration the following time estimates:
          – activity-on-arrow network construction
                                                                            Te = Expected activity time
       • PERT is used in Project management
                                                                            To = Optimistic time
          – for non-repetitive jobs (research and development work),
                                                                            Tp = Pessimistic time
          – where the time and cost estimates tend to be quite
            uncertain.                                                      Tm = Most likely time
          – This technique uses probabilistic time estimates.               σ = Event Standard Deviation
       • PERT has                                                           Te = (To + 4Tm + Tp) / 6
          – Multiple time estimates                                         σ = (Tp - To) / 6
          – Probabilistic activity times




                            Illustration 1                                                      Illustration 1 (Contd.)
                                                                                                    Activity                 Time Estimate
       • Project planners have sought the judgment of
                                                                                          Description          Number   To        Tm         Tp
         various knowledgeable engineers, foremen and
                                                                            Design Plant                        1–2     10        12         16
         vendors and have developed the time estimate as                    Select Site                         2–3     2         8          36
         follows.                                                           Select Vendor                       2–4     1         4          5
          – Determine the critical path.                                    Select Personnel                    2–6     2         3          4
          – What is the probability the project will be finished within 4   Prepare Site                        3–5     8         12         20
            years?                                                          Manufacture Generator               4–5     15        18         30
                                                                            Prepare Manual                      4–6     3         5          8
          – Calculate the overall variance for the project schedule.
                                                                            Install Generator                   5–7     2         4          8
                                                                            Train Operator                      6–7     6         9          12
                                                                            License Plant                       7–8     4         6          14
                                                              Hint




© Copyright 2013 Anupam Kumar                                                                                                                     1
Illustration 1 (Soln.)                                                               PERT
                                                                                       The procedure of PERT takes into consideration the following
                        Activity                          Time Estimate
                                                                                       time estimates:
              Description          Number   To       Tm       Tp          Te    σ2
       Design Plant                 1–2     10       12       16     12.33      1      Te = Expected activity time    σ = (Tp - To) / 6
       Select Site                  2–3     2        8        36     11.67     32.11   To = Optimistic time           Z = (Tx - Te) / σ
       Select Vendor                2–4     1        4        5       3.67     0.44
                                                                                       Tp = Pessimistic time          • Based on the value of Z, one
       Select Personnel             2–6     2        3        4           3    0.11
                                                                                                                          can find the probability of
       Prepare Site                 3–5     8        12       20     12.67      4      Tm = Most likely time              the project getting
       Manufacture Generator        4–5     15       18       30      19.5     6.25
                                                                                       σ = Event Standard                 completed at any time.
       Prepare Manual               4–6     3        5        8       5.17     0.694
       Install Generator            5–7     2        4        8       4.33      1
                                                                                               Deviation              If Tx < Te then value is the
       Train Operator               6–7     6        9        12          9     1      Te = (To + 4Tm + Tp) / 6           probability else probability
       License Plant                7–8     4        6        14          7    2.78
                                                                                                                          is (0.5 – P(Z))




                                   PERT / CPM                                                  Limitation of PERT / CPM
       Benefits                                  Questions that are answered           • The procedures of PERT / CPM can be applied
       • Useful at many stages of                • Completion date?                      only for activities which are clearly defined,
         project management                      • On Schedule?                          independent and stable.
       • Mathematically simple                   • Within Budget?
       • Give critical path and slack
                                                                                       • The activities should have specified
                                                 • Critical Activities?
         time                                    • How can the project be
                                                                                         precedence relationships.
       • Provide project                           finished early at the least         • The procedure lays over emphasis on critical
         documentation                             cost?                                 paths.
       • Useful in monitoring costs




© Copyright 2013 Anupam Kumar                                                                                                                            2

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Programme evaluation and review technique (pert)

  • 1. Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT) • PERT was developed by the US Navy for the planning and control of the Polaris missile Program Evaluation & Review program Technique (PERT) • The emphasis of PERT is on completing the program in the shortest possible time. Presented by: • PERT has the ability to cope with uncertain Anupam Kumar activity completion times. Reader • e.g. SMS Varanasi – for a particular activity the most likely completion time is 4 weeks but it could be anywhere between 3 weeks and 8 weeks. Program Evaluation & Review PERT Technique (PERT) • In PERT activities are shown as • The procedure of PERT takes into – a network of precedence relationships using consideration the following time estimates: – activity-on-arrow network construction Te = Expected activity time • PERT is used in Project management To = Optimistic time – for non-repetitive jobs (research and development work), Tp = Pessimistic time – where the time and cost estimates tend to be quite uncertain. Tm = Most likely time – This technique uses probabilistic time estimates. σ = Event Standard Deviation • PERT has Te = (To + 4Tm + Tp) / 6 – Multiple time estimates σ = (Tp - To) / 6 – Probabilistic activity times Illustration 1 Illustration 1 (Contd.) Activity Time Estimate • Project planners have sought the judgment of Description Number To Tm Tp various knowledgeable engineers, foremen and Design Plant 1–2 10 12 16 vendors and have developed the time estimate as Select Site 2–3 2 8 36 follows. Select Vendor 2–4 1 4 5 – Determine the critical path. Select Personnel 2–6 2 3 4 – What is the probability the project will be finished within 4 Prepare Site 3–5 8 12 20 years? Manufacture Generator 4–5 15 18 30 Prepare Manual 4–6 3 5 8 – Calculate the overall variance for the project schedule. Install Generator 5–7 2 4 8 Train Operator 6–7 6 9 12 License Plant 7–8 4 6 14 Hint © Copyright 2013 Anupam Kumar 1
  • 2. Illustration 1 (Soln.) PERT The procedure of PERT takes into consideration the following Activity Time Estimate time estimates: Description Number To Tm Tp Te σ2 Design Plant 1–2 10 12 16 12.33 1 Te = Expected activity time σ = (Tp - To) / 6 Select Site 2–3 2 8 36 11.67 32.11 To = Optimistic time Z = (Tx - Te) / σ Select Vendor 2–4 1 4 5 3.67 0.44 Tp = Pessimistic time • Based on the value of Z, one Select Personnel 2–6 2 3 4 3 0.11 can find the probability of Prepare Site 3–5 8 12 20 12.67 4 Tm = Most likely time the project getting Manufacture Generator 4–5 15 18 30 19.5 6.25 σ = Event Standard completed at any time. Prepare Manual 4–6 3 5 8 5.17 0.694 Install Generator 5–7 2 4 8 4.33 1 Deviation If Tx < Te then value is the Train Operator 6–7 6 9 12 9 1 Te = (To + 4Tm + Tp) / 6 probability else probability License Plant 7–8 4 6 14 7 2.78 is (0.5 – P(Z)) PERT / CPM Limitation of PERT / CPM Benefits Questions that are answered • The procedures of PERT / CPM can be applied • Useful at many stages of • Completion date? only for activities which are clearly defined, project management • On Schedule? independent and stable. • Mathematically simple • Within Budget? • Give critical path and slack • The activities should have specified • Critical Activities? time • How can the project be precedence relationships. • Provide project finished early at the least • The procedure lays over emphasis on critical documentation cost? paths. • Useful in monitoring costs © Copyright 2013 Anupam Kumar 2