Monthly summary of the state of the Spanish and international company

1. 40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
Jul-16
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Mar-18
Jul-18
Nov-18
Spain Euro area
18.9 17.5
14.3
10.1
2.7
20.3
16.3 14.9
10.4
2.9
Madrid Catalonia Andalusia Valencia Basque Country
Jan-Nov 2017 Jan-Nov 2018
+7.4%
-6.7%
+4.1%
+3.1%
+4.7%
July August September October November
European Union 10,5 31,2 -23,5 -7,2 -8
Spain 19,3 48,7 -12,6 -6,6 -12,6
France 18,9 40 -12,8 -1,5 -4,7
Italy 4,7 9,5 -25,4 -7,4 -6,3
Germany 12,3 24,7 -30,5 -7,4 -9,9
10.5
19.3
18.9
4.7
12.3
31.2
48.7
40
9.5
24.7
-23.5
-12.6
-12.8
-25.4
-30.5
-7.2
-6.6
-1.5
-7.4
-7.4
-8
-12.6
-4.7
-6.3
-9.9
Business creation
The incorporation of companies in Spain
between January and November reached
88,790 companies, representing an increase
of 0.77% year-over-year.
By Autonomous Community, Castile-La
Mancha and Madrid exhibited marked
progress with 8% and 7.4%, respectively. In
contrast, sharp drops were recorded in
Asturias (-9.7%) and Catalonia (-6.7%).
Manufacturing PMI
In November, Spain’s manufacturing PMI (a
leading indicator for GDP growth or
decline) climbed to 52.6 owing to the
recovery in production and new orders,
despite the deterioration in business
confidence in the face of lower demand
expectations.
The Euro area PMI came in at 51.8 points, a
record low since August 2016, driven by the
contraction of Germany’s GDP in Q3 2018
and the "yellow vests" revolt in France.
Corporation tax
According to the Spanish Tax Agency, the
applicable effective tax rate on a tax base
that already includes taxation in third
countries and prior year tax losses stood at
21.3% in 2016 (the latest data available), in a
context where 68.1% of reporting companies
obtained a tax base ≤ 0. By sectors, insurance
companies and credit institutions are the
ones with the highest effective rates, with
23.6% and 23%, respectively.
Likewise, medium-sized (50-249
employees) and large (250+ employees)
companies, which only represent 1.2% of the
total number of respondents, account for
51.3% of the total income declared in 2016.
Vehicle registration
In November, passenger car registrations in
Spain and the EU decreased by 12.6% and
8% year-on-year, respectively, for the third
consecutive month. This unfolds in part due
to the economic and political uncertainty in
Italy and the United Kingdom, and the
impact of a slowdown of the Chinese market
in the German industry.
Business…
at a glance December 2018
Business creation in the main Autonomous Communities
Thousands of companies, YoY change (%)
Manufacturing PMI
Points
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Markit, 2018
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on European Automobile Manufacture
Association, 2018
Vehicle registration
YoY change
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Informa, 2018

2. ‘Business at a glance’, a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However,
the Círculo de Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the
Círculo de Empresarios is not responsible for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning.
www.circulodeempresarios.org
11.7
3
5
7
9
11
13
+130%
-0.7
3.1
3.5
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-16
Apr-17
Sep-17
Feb-18
Jul-18
London
Great Britain
Great Britain excluding London
439
332 341
242 229 207
254
287
331
388
428
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
1
2
3
4
5 Otros pasivos del Banco Central
Pasivos en euros con entidades de crédito de la Eurozona
Billetes en circulación
4,7
Real estate
Spain
In Q3 2018, the average price of m2
of
housing in Spain reached € 1,590,
undergoing an increase of 3.2% year-on-year
and an estimate of 3.5% for the whole year.
This expansive phase of the real estate
sector is based on the increase in disposable
income of households, the increase in
employment and low interest rates.
On the supply side, from January to
September, the number of completed open-
market housing increased by 22.3% to
44,103.
Moreover, the sale of housing in this period
reached its peak since 2008, accumulating
428,267 transactions (+10.5%). If this trend
continues, it is expected that the number of
mortgages will increase by 10.5% over the
whole year.
Great Britain
Since November 2016, housing prices in
London have risen less than those
throughout the rest of the Great Britain.
Specifically, in July 2018*, they fell in by
0.7% year-on-year while in the rest of the
region they increased by 3.5%.
This divergent development is caused by the
uncertainty associated with Brexit, the fall
in the sale of housing in London (-18.5% in
March) and the rise in the LIBOR (from
0.8% in January to the current 1.16%).
ECB
On 31 December 2018, the ECB will end its
bond purchase programme, which began in
2015 and has reached €2.6bn, in a context in
which inflation is below 2%.
In turn, the ECB foresees a first rate hike
starting in the summer of 2019 as part of its
strategy to normalise monetary policy.
OPEC
Despite OPEC's latest decision to cut
output by 1.2 mbd, the price of crude oil has
been at yearly lows (February WTI futures
contract at $46) due to fears of a global
slowdown in the economy and an increased
oil production in the US.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, 2018
Housing prices index
YoY change (%)
*Last available data
Libor: Reference interest rate for mortgages
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Office for Nationals Statistics, 2018
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Development (Spain), 2018
Number of housing transactions
Thousands, Jan-Sep
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on EIA, 2018
Crude oil production in US
Million barrels per day
ECB´s balance sheet liability accounts
€tn