SlideShare a Scribd company logo
24 April
2020
PAGE 2
•
10
0.6015%
10 -0.424%
•
1.24%
762 1.09%
924
•
1.26%
Bloomberg 2020/4/23
7.52
13.23
11.49
8.02
1.07
11.55
1.19
10.13
3.69
7.06
12.62
8.17
2.46
6.38
2.78
4.00
-1.26
-1.24
-1.09
-0.48
-0.37
-0.24
-0.08
0.02
0.04
0.04
0.07
0.12
0.19
0.29
0.33
0.47
-
ESG ( )
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
• 4,840
(Gilead Sciences)
S&P 500
0.06%
•
600 2.56%
•
225
0.72%
LPR
300 0.72%
SENSEX 4.12%
• 0.25%
Bloomberg 2020/4/23
15.38
16.61
25.05
23.48
10.88
22.54
8.48
15.05
17.62
18.03
20.28
25.33
18.83
19.96
24.43
22.64
-1.73
-0.09
-0.06
0.25
0.32
0.54
0.72
0.72
0.79
1.01
2.06
2.39
2.56
2.65
3.07
4.12
MSCI
S&P 500
BAML
H
MSCI
300
Nikkei 225
MSCI
MSCI
DAX
BOVESPA
600
MSCI
RTS
SENSEX
% %
PAGE 4
•
OPEC+
(WTI) 5
4 20
OPEC+
• 4 17
1,502.2 ( )
1,400
Bloomberg 2020/4/23
-21.09
-29.37
-9.00
2.97
-3.27
-7.06
-5.06
11.46
11.41
-2.76
11.85
9.07
-23.33
-16.96
-8.20
-3.38
-0.17
-0.16
0.30
0.40
0.75
3.26
3.44
7.75
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 73 17
7 19
74
• 107
59 43
7
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/4/23
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
•
4,840
Trump
3
6.62 ( 1)
• 4 PMI
36.9 PMI 27.4
PMI 27 2009
( 2)
• Trump
Salami
Trump
Bloomberg 2020/4/23
( 1)
( 2) Markit PMI
PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
250
Univision Adient Cedar Fair
• S&P 500
AT&T Coca-Cola Travelers
Delta Airlines 8 Q2
9 Credit Suisse Intel
Texas Instrument
Xilinx
Netflix Snap
• 11
442.7 ( 2)
2,650
2009 4
20% 2009
Bloomberg 2020/4/23
( 1)
( 2) ( )
PAGE 9
Bloomberg 2020/4/23
( 1) Markit PMI
( 2) 225
• (ECB)
ECB
• (Fitch)
• 4 PMI
13.5 3 29.7
4 PMI 17.1 11.2
•
10
117
(4 27 )
PAGE 10
GDP
( 1) (%)
( 2) (%)
Bloomberg 2020/4/23
• GDP 1 GDP
6.8% 1992
• LPR (LPR)
1 LPR 20
3.85% 5 LPR 10 4.65%( 1)
LPR
LPR
LPR
•
25 3.75%
1
• 4 4
9.75% 8.75%( 2)
4
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/4/24
/ /
4/27 - -0.10%
4/28 4 88.4 120.0
4/28 3 2.5% 2.4%
4/29 1 GDP( ) -3.4% 2.1%
4/29 3 M3 ( ) - 5.5%
4/29 4 - -22.7
4/30 FOMC ( ) 0.25% -
4/30 3 -2.3% 0.6%
4/30 3 -4.5% 0.2%
4/30 1 GDP ( ) -3.6% 1.0%
4/30 3 - 7.3%
4/30 4 CPI( ) - 1.0%
4/30 ECB 0.00% 0.00%
4/30 3 ( ) -4.5% -0.3%
4/30 3 ( ) -3.9% 1.7%
4/30 4 PMI 51.7 52.0
5/1 4 ISM 36.7 49.1
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.72 (4/23)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 208.0 (4/23) 5 : 129.3
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.31 (4/23)
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 479.10 (4/23) 5 : 355.0
/ /
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 9.69 (4/23)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 924.0 (4/23) 5 : 470.1
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.27 (4/23)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 762.0 (4/23) 5 : 443.9
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.51 (4/23)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 669.0 (4/23) 5 : 385.1
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 9.25 (4/23)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 872.7 (4/23) 5 : 524.8
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.02 (4/23)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 635.25 (4/23) 5 : 352.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.12 (4/23)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 557.61 (4/23) 5 : 340.9
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 13.99 (4/23)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1347.0 (4/23) 5 : 569.9
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.65 (4/23)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 411.54 (4/23) 5 : 260.8
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.6 (4/23) 5 : 15.8
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 19.4 (4/23) 5 : 16.8
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.8 (4/23) 5 : 14.5
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 15.6 (4/23) 5 : 16.2
/ /
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ /
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.4 (4/23) 5 : 11.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 11.2 (4/23) 5 : 12.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 16.1 (4/23) 5 : 17.2
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.5 (4/23) 5 : 11.9
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ /
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 41.38 (4/23) 5 : 16.23
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 67.3 (4/23) 5 : 65.1
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 52.4 (4/23) 5 : 66.0
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 659.9 (4/23) 5 : 373.8
PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/4/23 '16/4/23 '17/4/23 '18/4/23 '19/4/23 '20/4/23
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/4/23 '16/4/23 '17/4/23 '18/4/23 '19/4/23 '20/4/23
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/4/23 '16/4/23 '17/4/23 '18/4/23 '19/4/23 '20/4/23
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/4/23 '16/4/23 '17/4/23 '18/4/23 '19/4/23 '20/4/23
5 1
26.4% 0.3%
28.6% 0.0%
5 1
16.4% -0.8%
30.9% 0.1%
5 1
21.4% -0.3%
29.7% 0.1%
5 1
11.3% -0.9%
25.9% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR109107
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
/
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20200424

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 0.6015% 10 -0.424% • 1.24% 762 1.09% 924 • 1.26% Bloomberg 2020/4/23 7.52 13.23 11.49 8.02 1.07 11.55 1.19 10.13 3.69 7.06 12.62 8.17 2.46 6.38 2.78 4.00 -1.26 -1.24 -1.09 -0.48 -0.37 -0.24 -0.08 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.19 0.29 0.33 0.47 - ESG ( ) - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • • 4,840 (Gilead Sciences) S&P 500 0.06% • 600 2.56% • 225 0.72% LPR 300 0.72% SENSEX 4.12% • 0.25% Bloomberg 2020/4/23 15.38 16.61 25.05 23.48 10.88 22.54 8.48 15.05 17.62 18.03 20.28 25.33 18.83 19.96 24.43 22.64 -1.73 -0.09 -0.06 0.25 0.32 0.54 0.72 0.72 0.79 1.01 2.06 2.39 2.56 2.65 3.07 4.12 MSCI S&P 500 BAML H MSCI 300 Nikkei 225 MSCI MSCI DAX BOVESPA 600 MSCI RTS SENSEX % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • OPEC+ (WTI) 5 4 20 OPEC+ • 4 17 1,502.2 ( ) 1,400 Bloomberg 2020/4/23 -21.09 -29.37 -9.00 2.97 -3.27 -7.06 -5.06 11.46 11.41 -2.76 11.85 9.07 -23.33 -16.96 -8.20 -3.38 -0.17 -0.16 0.30 0.40 0.75 3.26 3.44 7.75 CRB LME LME LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 73 17 7 19 74 • 107 59 43 7 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/4/23 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • 4,840 Trump 3 6.62 ( 1) • 4 PMI 36.9 PMI 27.4 PMI 27 2009 ( 2) • Trump Salami Trump Bloomberg 2020/4/23 ( 1) ( 2) Markit PMI
  • 9. PAGE 8 • ( 1) • 250 Univision Adient Cedar Fair • S&P 500 AT&T Coca-Cola Travelers Delta Airlines 8 Q2 9 Credit Suisse Intel Texas Instrument Xilinx Netflix Snap • 11 442.7 ( 2) 2,650 2009 4 20% 2009 Bloomberg 2020/4/23 ( 1) ( 2) ( )
  • 10. PAGE 9 Bloomberg 2020/4/23 ( 1) Markit PMI ( 2) 225 • (ECB) ECB • (Fitch) • 4 PMI 13.5 3 29.7 4 PMI 17.1 11.2 • 10 117 (4 27 )
  • 11. PAGE 10 GDP ( 1) (%) ( 2) (%) Bloomberg 2020/4/23 • GDP 1 GDP 6.8% 1992 • LPR (LPR) 1 LPR 20 3.85% 5 LPR 10 4.65%( 1) LPR LPR LPR • 25 3.75% 1 • 4 4 9.75% 8.75%( 2) 4
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/4/24 / / 4/27 - -0.10% 4/28 4 88.4 120.0 4/28 3 2.5% 2.4% 4/29 1 GDP( ) -3.4% 2.1% 4/29 3 M3 ( ) - 5.5% 4/29 4 - -22.7 4/30 FOMC ( ) 0.25% - 4/30 3 -2.3% 0.6% 4/30 3 -4.5% 0.2% 4/30 1 GDP ( ) -3.6% 1.0% 4/30 3 - 7.3% 4/30 4 CPI( ) - 1.0% 4/30 ECB 0.00% 0.00% 4/30 3 ( ) -4.5% -0.3% 4/30 3 ( ) -3.9% 1.7% 4/30 4 PMI 51.7 52.0 5/1 4 ISM 36.7 49.1
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE (%) (bp) (%) (bp)* 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 2.72 (4/23) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 208.0 (4/23) 5 : 129.3 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.31 (4/23) 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 479.10 (4/23) 5 : 355.0 / /
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 9.69 (4/23) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 924.0 (4/23) 5 : 470.1 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 8.27 (4/23) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 762.0 (4/23) 5 : 443.9
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.51 (4/23) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 669.0 (4/23) 5 : 385.1 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 9.25 (4/23) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 872.7 (4/23) 5 : 524.8
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.02 (4/23) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 635.25 (4/23) 5 : 352.3 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.12 (4/23) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 557.61 (4/23) 5 : 340.9
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 13.99 (4/23) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 1347.0 (4/23) 5 : 569.9 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.65 (4/23) 0 100 200 300 400 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 411.54 (4/23) 5 : 260.8
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 500 600 225 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 17.6 (4/23) 5 : 15.8 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 19.4 (4/23) 5 : 16.8 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 15.8 (4/23) 5 : 14.5 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 15.6 (4/23) 5 : 16.2 / /
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.4 (4/23) 5 : 11.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 11.2 (4/23) 5 : 12.2 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 16.1 (4/23) 5 : 17.2 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.5 (4/23) 5 : 11.9
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 41.38 (4/23) 5 : 16.23 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 67.3 (4/23) 5 : 65.1 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 52.4 (4/23) 5 : 66.0 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 659.9 (4/23) 5 : 373.8
  • 22. PAGE 21 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '15/4/23 '16/4/23 '17/4/23 '18/4/23 '19/4/23 '20/4/23 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '15/4/23 '16/4/23 '17/4/23 '18/4/23 '19/4/23 '20/4/23 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/4/23 '16/4/23 '17/4/23 '18/4/23 '19/4/23 '20/4/23 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '15/4/23 '16/4/23 '17/4/23 '18/4/23 '19/4/23 '20/4/23 5 1 26.4% 0.3% 28.6% 0.0% 5 1 16.4% -0.8% 30.9% 0.1% 5 1 21.4% -0.3% 29.7% 0.1% 5 1 11.3% -0.9% 25.9% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR109107 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited / 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898