1. THE KASHMIR
INSURGENCY
Briefing for the U.S. House of Representatives
Committee on International Relations Subcommittee
on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and
Human Rights
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7. Photo by Bhisham Pratap Prada. Used under Creative Commons license.
8.
9. Flashpoint
Estimated Toll of “Limited” Nuclear War
Killed
Severely Injured
INDIA
Bangalore
315000
175000
Bombay
478000
229000
Calcutta
357000
198000
Madras
364000
196000
New Delhi
177000
94000
India Total
1.7 m
0.9m
Faisalabad
336000
174000
Islamabad
154000
67000
Karachi
240000
127000
Lahore
258000
150000
Rawalpindi
184000
97000
1.2m
0.6 m
2.9 m
1.5 m
PAKISTAN
Pakistan Total
TOTAL
10. U.S. Interests
1.
2.
Avoidance of a nuclear exchange in South
Asia
Use of Kashmir by Islamic extremists
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1.
to distract Pakistan from Al-Qaida
As a training and recruiting ground
Violations by both Islamic militants and Indian
security forces of:
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Human rights
Democratic process
The right of self-determination
13. 1846. Jammu and Kashmir created
1947. Partition and “Document of
Accession”
1949. First Indo-Pak War.
1957. Kashmiri constitution.
1962. Sino-Indian War
1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War
1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of
Control”
1980. Kashmiri insurgency
1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear
weapons
1999. Kargill Conflict
2001. Terrorist attack on Indian
parliament
14. 1846. Jammu and Kashmir created
1947. Partition and “Document of
Accession”
1949. First Indo-Pak War.
1957. Kashmiri constitution.
1962. Sino-Indian War
1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War
1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of
Control”
1980. Kashmiri insurgency
1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear
weapons
1999. Kargill Conflict
2001. Terrorist attack on Indian
parliament
15. 1846. Jammu and Kashmir created
1947. Partition and “Document of
Accession”
1949. First Indo-Pak War.
1957. Kashmiri constitution.
1962. Sino-Indian War
1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War
1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of
Control”
1980. Kashmiri insurgency
1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear
weapons
1999. Kargill Conflict
2001. Terrorist attack on Indian
parliament
16. 1846. Jammu and Kashmir created
1947. Partition and “Document of
Accession”
1949. First Indo-Pak War.
1957. Kashmiri constitution.
1962. Sino-Indian War
1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War
1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of
Control”
1980. Kashmiri insurgency
1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear
weapons
1999. Kargill Conflict
2001. Terrorist attack on Indian
parliament
17. 1846. Jammu and Kashmir created
1947. Partition and “Document of
Accession”
1949. First Indo-Pak War.
1957. Kashmiri constitution.
1962. Sino-Indian War
1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War
1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of
Control”
1980. Kashmiri insurgency
1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear
weapons
1999. Kargill Conflict
2001. Terrorist attack on Indian
parliament
18. 1846. Jammu and Kashmir created
1947. Partition and “Document of
Accession”
1949. First Indo-Pak War.
1957. Kashmiri constitution.
1962. Sino-Indian War
1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War
1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of
Control”
1980. Kashmiri insurgency
1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear
weapons
1999. Kargill Conflict
2001. Terrorist attack on Indian
parliament
20. Pakistan’s Role
Pakistan does not recognize the legitimacy of Kashmir’s
accession to India.
Anti-India terrorist groups continue to operate from within
Pakistan
Although in 2001 Pakistan rejected insurgency, it is
believed to have offered support and training for several
uprisings.
21. Kashmiri Separatist Organizations
Main Armed Militant Groups
Hizbul Mujahideen
Pro-Pak/Islamic vision of Kashmir
Lashkar e-Taiba
Ahle Hadith/wants Pan-Islamic state
Jaish e-Muhammad
Deobandi/wants Pan-Islamic state
Harkat ul-Mujahideen
Deobandi/wants Pan-Islamic state
J&K Liberation Front
Kashmiriyat
Political Umbrella Groups
All Parties Hurriyat Conf.
Some pro-Pakistan, some Kashmiriyat
Muttahida Jihad Council
Supports pro-Pakistan militants
Main Kashmiri Parties
J&K People’s Conference
Kashmiriyat
J&K Liberation Front
Kashmiriyat
Jamaat e-Islami (K)
Some pro-Pakistan, some Kashmiriyat
Jamaat e-Islami (P)
Pro-Pakistan
22. India’s Role
Political Position
1. Jammu and Kashmir are integral parts of India
2. State would have been settled long ago but for
Pakistan’s “terrorist proxy war.”
Handling of Insurgency
1. Massive security force in Kashmir
2. Entice moderate political leaders to participate in
state government
3. Prevent conflict from requiring international
intervention
No International Mediation is Permissible
1. Risk of neo-Colonialism
2. Foreign nations do not have India’s interests at heart
3. Violation of national sovereignty
23. Policy Principles
1. Each stakeholder must be able to claim some benefit
from the settlement
2. The insurgency must be recognized as a key player in
the region.
3. Human rights, democratic process and the right to selfdetermination must be respected.
24. Scenario One:
Formalize Status Quo
• Confirms Simla Agreement
• India has supported
• Rejected by Pakistan
• Rejected by Independence
Movement
25. Scenario Two:
Kashmir Joins Pakistan
• Supported by Pakistan
• Rejected by India
• Ignores Kashmiriyat
independence
movement(s)
• Buddhist and Hindu
populations forced into
Pakistani citizenship
26. Scenario 3:
Kashmir Joins India
• Supported by India
• Rejected by Pakistan
• Ignores Kashmiriyat
independence
movements
• Muslims of Azad
regions forced into
Indian citizenship
27. Scenario 4:
Independent Kashmir
• Rejected by Pakistan
• Rejected by India
• Opposed by many
Buddhist and Hindu
Kashmiris
• Supported by many
independent “Kashmiriyat”
groups
• Raises international
concerns over
• regional “Balkanization”
• Economic instability
30. Advantages
• Leaves Pakistan and India in control of Chinese
borders
• Creates an independent Kashmir
• Leaves Pakistan in control of some Muslim
regions
• Leaves India in control of Hindu and Buddhist
regions
• Allows tourism from both states
• Encourages investment by both states
• Reduction of insurgent pressures
31. Disadvantages
• Loss of control of some land by both Pakistan and India.
• Reduces Indian control of potential terrorist threat.
32. Policy Recommendations
Members of the U.S. House should:
1.Pressure Pakistan on terrorism
2.Continue visits to Kashmir
3.Emphasize U.S. anti-terrorism commitment to India
4.Open dialogue with non-militant Kashmiri political groups