Hcl tech ru3 qfy2010-22042010

3QFY2010 Result Update I IT
April 22, 2010

HCL Technologies ACCUMULATE
CMP Rs381
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs420

HCL Tech (HCL) delivered better-than-expected results by reporting a strong Investment Period 15 Months
6.9% qoq growth in the constant currency. The growth was supported by an
8.2% jump in the billed efforts, compensating the pricing decline of 1.2%, Stock Info
sequentially. However, the growth in the reported currency was low at 1.4% Sector IT
qoq, on account of the significant appreciation of the Rupee over the USD
(1.6%), Euro (6%) and the GBP (7%). The cross-currency impact was higher Market Cap (Rs cr) 25,776
vis-à-vis the peers, as HCL derives a higher share of Revenue from the Euro
Beta 1.0
zone (28% on LTM basis) and has a lower Fx cover. The EBIT grew by just 1%
qoq on account of a ramp-down in the BPO segment. The Net profit grew by 52 WK High / Low 388/118
15.9% at Rs344cr, sequentially, helped by lower Fx losses (down to Rs62cr
Avg. Daily Volume 212487
from Rs125cr in 3QFY2010). At the current levels, we maintain an Accumulate
on the stock. Face Value (Rs) 2
Reaping the benefits of key, large deal wins: HCL Tech has been clocking a BSE Sensex 17,574
higher revenue growth than its peers in the last few quarters, backed by large
multi-million-dollar deal wins in the recent past. The company has recorded Nifty 5,269
strong revenue growth, backed by a 15% qoq growth in the Media vertical Reuters Code HCLT.BO
and a 9.8% qoq growth in the Manufacturing segment. Infrastructure Services
revenue grew by a strong 15% qoq; however, the BPO vertical was subdued, Bloomberg Code HCLT@IN
with a 13% qoq fall in revenue, as the company has been witnessing a ramp-
Shareholding Pattern (%)
down in one major account. The company bagged 13 new deals across
verticals (offshoring and transformational in nature), and added 39 new Promoters 68.1
clients during the quarter.
MF/Banks/Indian FIs 6.8
Outlook and Valuation: We expect the company to mark a top-line CAGR of
14.7% during FY2009-12E, assuming a 20% CAGR in USD revenues and a FII/NRIs/OCBs 21.6
realisation de-growth of 530bp over the next two years (assuming INR/USD Indian Public 3.5
rate of 44.5). HCL has been operating at an 80%+ utilisation level (overall);
thus, it does not have much room in terms of productivity gains. Hence, the Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
EPS is likely to grow at a slower CAGR of 12.8% over FY2009-12E. The stock
Sensex 4.2 62.5 26.5
is currently trading at 17x on its FY2011E EPS of Rs22.5 and 14.2x on its
FY2012E EPS of Rs27.2. We have valued the stock at 15.5x of its FY2012E HCL Tech (0.5) 204.5 13.6
earnings, in line with its historical average of 15x during FY2006-2010, and
at a 30% discount to our Infosys target P/E multiple of 22x (historical discount
of 32%). We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock, with a Target price
of Rs420.

Key Financials
Y/E June (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 10,591 12,110 13,611 15,903
% chg 40.0 14.3 12.4 16.8
Adj. Net Profit 1,275 1,459 1,634 1,933
% chg 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.2
OPM (%) 21.8 21.6 21.0 20.5
EPS (Rs) 19.1 19.6 22.5 27.2
P/E (x) 20.3 19.7 17.1 14.2 Rahul Jain
P/BV (x) Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 345
4.6 4.1 3.6 3.1
RoE (%) E-mail: rahul.j@angeltrade.com
23.4 24.3 24.1 24.8
RoCE (%) 30.6 38.5 41.8 40.9
Vibha Salvi
EV/Sales (x) 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.5
Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 329
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.5 10.0 8.9 7.4 E-mail: vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research

1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539

HCL Technologies I 3QFY2010 Result Update

Exhibit 1: 3QFY2010 Performance (Consolidated, US GAAP)
Y/E June (Rs cr) FY2010 FY2010 % chg FY2009 % chg 9MFY2010 9MFY2009 % chg
3Q 2Q (qoq) 3Q (yoy)
Revenues 3,076 3,033 1.4 2,862 7.5 9,140 7,682 19.0
Direct Costs 2,038 1,951 4.5 1,801 13.2 5,903 4,735 24.7
Gross Profit 1,038 1,082 (4.1) 1,061 (2.2) 3,236 2,948 9.8
SG&A Expenses 430 443 (2.9) 450 (4.4) 1,302 1,285 1.3
Operating Profit (EBITDA) 607 639 (4.9) 610 (0.5) 1,935 1,662 16.4
Other Income (77) (139) (204) (62.4) (372) (108)
Depreciation & Amortisation 110 136 (19.3) 142 (22.3) 388 329 17.8
Income before Income Taxes 421 364 15.7 265 58.9 1,175 1,225 (4.1)
Tax 77 68 13.3 49 58.6 215 161 33.5
Minority Interest 0.1 1.2 1.7 1 3
Net Income 344 297 15.9 218 57.8 961 1,067 (10.0)
Diluted EPS (Rs) 5.0 4.3 15.6 3.3 51.9 14.1 15.9 (11.2)
Gross Profit Margin (%) 33.7 35.7 37.1 35.4 38.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.7 21.1 21.3 21.2 21.6
Net Profit Margin (%) 11.2 9.8 7.6 10.5 13.9

Strong growth momentum sustained

During 3QFY2010, HCL Tech recorded a Top-line growth of 1.4% qoq (7.5% yoy),
backed by a strong 8.2% qoq growth in volumes. However, the positive impact on
the volume growth was largely curtailed by a pricing decline of 1.1% qoq and a
5.5% qoq impact of cross-currencies, resulting in lower realisations. The average
Rupee realisation rate went down to 44.9 per USD for 3QFY2010. IT services
revenue (USD revenue) continued its steady growth rate, clocking a rise of 6.6%
qoq, supported by strong revenue traction in the infrastructure services segment (up
15% qoq). Revenues in Engineering and R&D services grew by 10.8%; however, BPO
disappointed, with revenue de-growth of 9.8% qoq. The company has been de-
emphasising its focus in the specific service sections in the BPO segment; thus, it has
been seeing a systemic decline quarter after quarter, with the contribution of BPO
going down to 7.6% in 3QFY2010 (as against 10% in 3QFY2009).

Among the various verticals that grew, HCL Tech recorded a strong sequential
growth of 15%, 9.8% and 8.9%, respectively, in Media Publishing, Manufacturing
and the Life Sciences industry. The company is reaping the benefits of its key large
deal wins (specifically its 7-year US $350mn IT infra services deal from Readers
Digest), which have been supporting its revenue growth momentum and
outperformance.

Exhibit 2: Peer USD revenue growth QoQ.
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
AMJ'09 JAS'09 OND'09 JFM'10
Infy HCL Tech Wipro TCS

April 22, 2010 2


In terms of geographies, the growth was led through a continued strong recovery in
the US market, which was up by 9.6% qoq, whereas Asia Pacific revenues expanded
by 7.7% sequentially. The company closed 13 large deals across services and
verticals, and added 39 new clients during the quarter. This comprises of deals
signed with a few marquee clients such as Vodafone, Advanstar, Saint Gobain,
Malaysian Airlines and Sky Italia, among others. The client contribution has been
strengthening, with the average revenue per client growing by 6% yoy to US
$1.69mn as on 3QFY2010 (as against US $1.59mn in 3QFY2009).

Manpower Addition, Re Appreciation and BPO ramp-down hurts margins
The sharp Rupee appreciation and net addition of 2,441 employees (highest over
the last several quarters) resulted in a decline in the gross margins in the current
quarter. Also, a 13% qoq decline in the BPO revenue resulted in losses at the
operational levels in the segmental profitability, resulting in decline in EBIDTA
margins by 140bp sequentially to 19.7%. The EBIDTA margins in the Combined IT
Services segment (Software + Infra Services) were also lower by 60bp at 22.8% in
3QFY2010, on account of lower realisations in software services.

Exhibit 3: EBITDA Margin Trend
24

23

22

21
(%)

20

19

18
1QFY08

2QFY08

3QFY08

4QFY08

1QFY09

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

Lower Amortisation and Declining Fx Losses boost the bottom-line
Despite the fall in operating profits, the company reported a 15.9% qoq growth in
the PAT, supported by a decline in the amortisation charge (Rs17cr in 3QFY2010, as
against Rs 38cr in 2QFY2010) and lower Fx losses (Rs62cr as against Rs125cr in the
same period). The fall in the amortisation costs and improvement in the other
income resulted in an expansion in the PAT margin by 142bp qoq and 358bp yoy.

In the past, HCL Tech has incurred large Fx losses on account of its high hedge
cover ratio, and has been consciously reducing its Fx exposure so as to realign its
hedging strategy in sync with the peers. The company has total outstanding hedge
positions to the tune of ~US $458mn as on 3QFY2010, and is now focusing on
covering exposures of smaller tenure, in view of the volatile movement in currency.
The booked rate on the portfolio is INR 40.5 per USD; thus, the losses on Fx have
been lower on account of the recent INR appreciation. We believe that the no
participation in hedging receivables at high INR/USD levels in LTM would result in
lower realisations vis-à-vis its peers for HCL in the coming period.

Going forward, we expect the current level of profitability to sustain, as the pressure
of wage inflation and currency appreciation would be mitigated by lower Fx losses.
However, the effective tax rate may go up significantly after FY2011E from the
current level of 18% (end of the STPI benefit), and may impact margins.
Strong Lateral Hiring

April 22, 2010 3


Strong Lateral hiring exhibiting incremental focus on high value-addition

During the quarter, HCL added a net of 2,441 employees (historically high), taking
the total headcount to 58,129 employees. The company added 3,152 employees in
the IT Services segment, whereas the employee count was taken down in the BPO
segment by 711, in view of the segmental ramp-down. Of the total gross addition of
7,136 employees during the quarter, 6,379 offers were in lateral hiring. Such strong
lateral hiring highlights the company’s incremental focus in high value-add
segments, which would result in high revenue per employee. However, the higher
proportion of lateral hiring would impact the salary costs, both in terms of wage
inflation and per employee costs.

Exhibit 4: Segment -wise Revenue Break-up
3QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY09 % chg % chg
Rs cr Rs cr Rs cr qoq Yoy
Core Software 2,161 2,150 2,143 0.5 0.8
Infrastructure Services 682 614 433 11.0 57.5
BPO Services 233 268 286 (13.0) (18.3)
Total 3,076 3,033 2,862 1.4 7.5

Exhibit 5: Service-wise Revenue Break-up
Rs cr Rs cr Rs cr qoq Yoy
EAS 658 679 701 (3.1) (6.1)
Engineering and R&D 584 546 630 7.1 (7.2)
Custom Application 920 925 813 (0.6) 13.2
Infrastructure Services 682 614 433 11.0 57.5
BPO Services 233 268 286 (13.0) (18.3)
Total Revenue 3,076 3,033 2,862 1.4 7.5

Exhibit 6: Vertical-wise Revenue Break-up
Rs cr Rs cr Rs cr qoq yoy
Financial Services 784 791 675 (0.9) 16.1
Manufacturing 821 776 867 5.8 (5.3)
Telecom 357 379 346 (5.9) 3.0
Retail & CPG 231 243 197 (4.9) 16.8
Media, Publishing &
Entertainment 243 218 143 11.3 69.8
Life Sciences 231 218 180 5.7 28.0
Energy-Utilities-Public Sector 215 221 255 (2.7) (15.5)
Others 194 185 197 4.7 (1.9)
Total Revenue 3,076 3033 2862 1.4 7.5

Exhibit 7: Geographical break-up
Rs cr Rs cr Rs cr qoq yoy
North America 1,830 1,729 1,746 5.9 4.8
Europe 821 895 790 (8.2) 4.0
Asia Pacific 424 409 326 3.7 30.1
Total Revenues 3076 3,033 2,862 1.4 7.5

April 22, 2010 4


Outlook and Valuation

HCL Tech clocked a strong business growth of 6.9% (constant currency) in the
quarter; however, the growth in reported currency was just 1.4%, on account of the
low hedge cover and the sharp rupee appreciation against major currencies. We
believe that this trend will continue, as the company has not participated in booking
hedges at high levels of 46-52 INR/USD and would thus witness a wider gap
between USD revenues and reported revenues vis-à-vis its peers. Operating
profitability is likely to take a hit by 110bp, as the company would face pressures in
terms of higher wage costs (lateral hiring and wage inflation) and currency
headwinds. However, the PAT margin would remain stable at the current levels, on
account of savings on lower interest costs and Fx losses, as the low-cost hedged
positions would end in 1HFY2011E.

We expect the company to mark a top-line CAGR of 14.7% during FY2009-12E,
assuming a 20% growth in USD revenues and a realisation de-growth of 530bp
over the next two years (assuming INR/USD rate of 44.5). HCL has been operating
at an 80%+ utilisation level (overall); thus, it does not have much room in terms of
productivity gains. Hence, the EPS is likely to grow at a slower CAGR of 12.8% over
FY2009-12E. The stock is currently trading at 17x on its FY2011E EPS of Rs22.5 and
14.2x on its FY2012E EPS of Rs27.2. We have valued the stock at 15.5x of its
FY2012E earnings, in line with its historical average of 15x during FY2006-2010,
and at a 30% discount to our Infosys target P/E multiple of 22x (historical discount of
32%). We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock, with a Target price of
Rs420.

Exhibit 8: PE Band
600
550
500 26x
450
Share Price (Rs)

400
350 19x
300
15x
250
200
150 8x
100
50
0
Apr-01

Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Aug-01

Aug-02

Aug-03

Aug-04

Aug-05

Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09
Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09


Exhibit 9: Discount in HCL Tech P/E v/s Infosys P/E
0

(10)

(20)

(30)
(%)

(40)

(50)

(60)

(70)
Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09
Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Aug-05

Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09

Discount to Infosys Avg. Historical Discount to Infosys


April 22, 2010 5


Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) (Rs crore)
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 7,600 10,608 12,110 13,611 15,903
Less: Excise duty - 33 17 - -
Net Sales 7,567 10,591 12,110 13,611 15,903
Other operating income
Total operating income 7,567 10,591 12,110 13,611 15,903
% chg 25.4 40.0 14.3 12.4 16.8
Total Expenditure 5,946 8,285 9,500 10,752 12,643
Cost of Equipment 4,688 6,548 7,751 8,711 10,257
SGA 1,258 1,736 1,750 2,042 2,385
Cost of IT - - - - -
EBITDA 1,622 2,307 2,610 2,858 3,260
% chg 42.2 13.1 9.5 14.1
(% of Net Sales) 21.4 21.8 21.6 21.0 20.5
Depreciation& Amortisation 303 449 509 662 769
EBIT 1,318 1,857 2,101 2,196 2,491
% chg 21.6 40.9 13.1 4.5 13.4
(% of Net Sales) 17.4 17.5 17.3 16.1 15.7
Interest & other Charges - - - - -
Other Income (64) (328) (350) (200) (70)
(% of PBT) (5.1) (21.4) (20.0) (10.0) (2.9)
Share in profit of Associates - - - - -
Recurring PBT 1,254 1,529 1,751 1,996 2,421
% chg (17.0) 22.0 14.5 14.0 21.3
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - -
PBT (reported) 1,254 1,529 1,751 1,996 2,421
Tax 127 254 292 362 487
(% of PBT) 10.1 16.6 16.7 18.1 20.1
PAT (reported) 1,127 1,275 1,459 1,634 1,933
Add: Share of earnings of
(1.9) 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
associate
Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - -
Prior period items - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 1,125 1,278 1,462 1,637 1,936
ADJ. PAT 1,125 1,278 1,462 1,637 1,936
% chg (17.0) 13.6 14.4 12.0 18.3
(% of Net Sales) 14.9 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.2
Basic EPS (Rs) 16.9 19.1 19.6 22.5 27.2
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 16.5 18.7 19.4 22.2 26.9
% chg (17.0) 12.9 2.7 14.8 21.1

April 22, 2010 6


Balance Sheet (Consolidated) (Rs crore)
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 133 134 135 135 135
Preference Capital - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 5,084 5,550 6,224 7,093 8,281
Shareholders Funds 5,218 5,684 6,359 7,228 8,416
Minority Interest 6 2 2 2 2
Total Loans 27 2,977 2,382 1,786 1,191
Deferred Tax Liability 90 (97) 15 130 304
Total Liabilities 5,340 8,566 8,757 9,146 9,913
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 2,624 3,328 3,916 4,694 5,529
Less: Acc. Depreciation 1,293 1,742 2,148 2,758 3,477
Net Block 1,332 1,586 1,768 1,936 2,052
Capital Work-in-Progress - - - - -
Goodwill 959 4,533 4,235 3,950 3,700
Investments 22 37 920 970 970
Current Assets 4,799 5,678 5,159 5,784 7,236
Cash 1,005 1,877 943 1,058 1,694
Loans & Advances - - - - -
Other 3,794 3,801 4,216 4,725 5,542
Current liabilities 1,771 3,268 3,325 3,495 4,046
Net Current Assets 3,028 2,410 1,834 2,289 3,191
Mis. Exp. not written off -
Total Assets 5,340 8,566 8,757 9,146 9,913

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) (Rs crore)
Profit before tax 1,254 1,529 1,751 1,996 2,421
Depreciation 303 449 509 662 769
Change in Working Capital (375) (160) (1,676) (1,547) (1,867)
Less: Other income (64) (328) (350) (200) (70)
Direct taxes paid 127 254 292 362 487
Cash Flow from Operations 1,120 1,893 642 948 906
Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets (377) (657) (593) (663) (750)
Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments - (3,392) 1,000 - -
Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and advances (500)
Other income (64) (328) (350) (200) (70)
Cash Flow from Investing (313) (4,221) 757 (463) (680)
Issue of Equity - - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans - 3,447 (315) (630) (250)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (585) (638) (503) (666) (700)
Others
Cash Flow from Financing 585 2,810 (818) (1,296) (950)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 2,018 482 (933) 115 636
Opening Cash balances 359 1,005 1,877 943 1,058
Closing Cash balances 1,005 1,877 943 1,058 1,694

April 22, 2010 7


Key Ratios
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 23.1 20.3 19.7 17.1 14.2

P/CEPS 18.2 15.1 14.4 12.1 10.1

P/BV 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.1

Dividend yield (%) 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.1

EV/Sales 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.5

EV/EBITDA 14.2 11.5 10.0 8.9 7.4

EV / Total Assets 37.5 36.4 33.4 29.3 23.6

Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 16.9 19.1 19.6 22.5 27.2

EPS (fully diluted) 16.5 18.7 19.4 22.2 26.9

Cash EPS 20.9 25.3 26.5 31.5 37.7

DPS 9.3 10.7 8.0 8.0 8.0

Book Value 76.4 83.3 93.1 105.9 123.3

DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin 17.4 17.5 17.3 16.1 15.7

Tax retention ratio 89.9 83.4 85.7 83.0 79.0

Asset turnover (x) 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7

ROIC (Post-tax) 24.9 18.6 21.3 21.0 21.3

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.6 6.6

Leverage (x) 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1

Operating ROE 25.8 31.9 40.5 38.7 36.9

Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 25.8 30.6 38.5 41.8 40.9

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 28.8 36.6 46.1 51.0 51.1

ROE 21.6 23.4 24.3 24.1 24.8

Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7

Inventory / Sales (days) - - - - -

Receivables (days) 91.4 93.3 85.0 85.0 85.0

Payables (days) 7.5 11.2 13.7 13.0 11.7

Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) 97.6 44.1 21.5 28.5 31.3

Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity (0.2) 0.2 0.1 (0.0) (0.2)

Net debt to EBITDA (0.6) 0.5 0.2 (0.1) (0.5)

Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.0 0.0 15.0 18.3 24.9

April 22, 2010 8


Research Team Tel: 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com

DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved),
and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true,
and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we
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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).

Disclosure of Interest Statement HCL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.

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Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
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April 22, 2010 9

Hcl tech ru3 qfy2010-22042010

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