4QFY2010 Result Update I Capital Goods
                                                                                                                             May 14, 2010




  Graphite India                                                                             BUY
                                                                                             CMP                                     Rs99
  Performance Highlights                                                                     Target Price                           Rs117
  Graphite India’s (GIL) 4QFY2010 Sales growth of 66% yoy, on a Standalone                   Investment Period                    12 Months
  basis, came in line with our estimates. However, FY2010 Sales (Consolidated)
  fell slightly more than our expectation due to the lower-than-expected                     Stock Info
  production at the company’s Nuremberg facility. Nevertheless, going forward,
                                                                                             Sector                         Capital Goods
  we believe that the company is well placed on account of strengthening
  demand for graphite electrodes from the Steel industry and large capacity                  Market Cap (Rs cr)                      1,695
  expansion in the Durgapur plant. We maintain our Earnings estimates for
                                                                                             Beta                                       0.7
  FY2011E and FY2012E. At current levels, the stock is available at attractive
  valuations. We maintain a Buy on the stock.                                                52 WK High / Low                       112/38

  Muted Sales, Strong Margins: FY2010 Sales (Consolidated) fell 10.1%, much                  Avg. Daily Volume                     152,552
  lower than our estimates, mainly because of the 50% drop in production at its              Face Value (Rs)                             2
  German facility. Production at the Indian plants fell 24% yoy. However, OPM
  for FY2010 increased to a strong 29.4% (24.4%) owing to higher realizations.               BSE Sensex                             16,995
  Interest cost for the year fell to Rs14.5cr (Rs35.1cr) mainly due to lower                 Nifty                                   5,094
  working capital requirements. Consequently, PAT for the year came in line
  with our estimate at Rs235cr.                                                              Reuters Code                         GRPH.BO

                                                                                             Bloomberg Code                        GRIL@IN
  Outlook and Valuation: Going ahead, we expect the demand for graphite
  electrodes to be strong as steel manufacturing through the EAF route picks up              Shareholding Pattern (%)
  and the effect of de-stocking of inventories reverses. The company’s move to
  increase capacity at the Durgapur facility by 22,000MT/year as against the                 Promoters                                 63.6
  earlier plan to increase it by 10,500MT/year would provide a major boost to                MF/Banks/Indian FLs                      14.3
  the company’s future growth prospects. Margins are expected to stay strong at
  over 24% levels during the next few years. Overall, we expect GIL to register a            FII/NRIs/OCBs                              8.1
  CAGR of 19.1% in Top-line and 8.2% in Profit over FY2010-12E. At the                       Indian Public                            14.0
  current levels, the stock is trading at 1.2x and 1.1x FY2011E and FY2012E
  P/BV, respectively. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of                 Abs. (%)            3m         1yr        3yr
  Rs117.
                                                                                             Sensex              5.2    43.1           21.7

                                                                                             Graphite          18.0     138.2          71.8

   Key Financials (Consolidated)
   Y/E March (Rs cr)                 FY2009        FY2010         FY2011E    FY2012E
   Net Sales                          1,498          1,347          1,600      1,910
   % chg                               12.6          (10.1)          18.8       19.3
   Net Profit                           237            235            239        275
   % chg                               66.4           (0.9)            1.6      15.1
   EBITDA Margin (%)                   24.4           29.4           24.4       24.2
   FDEPS (Rs)                          11.6            10.7          12.2       14.0
   P/E (x)                               8.3            9.0            7.9        6.8
   P/BV (x)                              1.5            1.3            1.2        1.1
   RoE (%)                             25.3           19.6           16.7       16.6
   RoACE (%)                           20.4            20.4          19.5       20.2        Jai Sharda
   EV/Sales (x)                          1.1            1.2            1.3        1.0       Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 305
   EV/EBITDA (x)                        4.6             4.1            5.3        4.2       E-mail: jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
   Source: Company, Angel Research




                                                                                                                                          1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                               Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Rallis I 4QFY2010 Result Update



 Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance (Standalone)
 Y/E March (Rs cr)                              4Q FY10   3Q FY10   % chg    4Q FY09    % chg      FY10      FY09     % chg
                                                                    (qoq)                (yoy)
 Net Sales                                        338.6     278.9    21.4      203.3     66.5    1,131.2   1,125.9       0.5
 Consumption of RM                                141.3      97.2    45.4       67.9    108.2     417.2     380.7        9.6
 (% of Sales)                                      41.7      34.8               33.4                36.9      33.8
 Staff Costs                                       19.8      18.7     5.7       17.2     15.0      74.3      75.0      (0.9)
 (% of Sales)                                       5.8       6.7                8.4                 6.6       6.7
 Other Expenses                                    79.3      60.4    31.4       85.2     (6.9)    261.0     438.1     (40.4)
 (% of Sales)                                      23.4      21.6               41.9                23.1      38.9
 Total Expenditure                                240.4     176.2    36.4      170.3     41.2     752.5     893.8     (15.8)
 Operating Profit                                  98.2     102.7    (4.4)      33.1         -    378.7     232.1      63.1
 OPM                                               29.0      36.8               16.3               33.5      20.6
 Interest                                           1.8       1.7     7.0        7.8    (76.5)     10.5      25.9     (59.6)
 Depreciation                                      10.3       9.8     5.2        9.3      9.9      39.5      34.4      15.1
 Other Income                                       2.2       5.9   (62.5)      14.9    (85.2)     30.6      28.9        5.8
 PBT (excl. Extr. Items)                           88.3      97.2    (9.1)      30.8    186.2     359.3     200.8      79.0
 Extr. Income/(Expense)                               -         -                   -                  -         -
 PBT (incl. Extr. Items)                           88.3      97.2    (9.1)      30.8         -    359.3     200.8      79.0
 (% of Sales)                                      26.1      34.8               15.2                31.8      17.8
 Provision for Taxation                            32.7      34.2    (4.4)     (51.7)        -    127.1        7.2   1,670.1
 (% of PBT)                                        37.0      35.2                   -               35.4       3.6
 Reported PAT                                      55.6      63.0   (11.7)      82.6         -    232.2     193.6      19.9
 PATM                                              16.4      22.6               40.6               20.5      17.2
 Equity shares (cr)                                17.2      17.1               15.1               17.2      15.1
 EPS (Rs)                                           3.2       3.7   (12.0)       5.5         -     13.6      12.6        8.2
 Adjusted PAT                                      55.6      63.0   (11.7)      82.6         -    232.2     193.6      19.9
 Source: Company, Angel Research.


                                    Key Highlights

                                    For 4QFY2010, the company’s Sales grew at an impressive 66.5% yoy and 21.4%
                                    qoq albeit on a low base due to the slowdown in 4QFY2009. In 4QFY2010, OPM at
                                    29.0% fell from the high of 36.8% in 3QFY2010. For FY2010, Standalone OPM
                                    stood at the historical high of 33.5%. This came primarily due to the fact that
                                    globally graphite electrode prices increased in CY2009 on higher needle coke
                                    prices, but other raw material and manufacturing costs fell during the year. Going
                                    ahead, OPMs are expected to further correct to more reasonable levels of around
                                    24.0%. PAT Margin for 4QFY2010 was 16.4% compared to 22.6% in 3QFY2010.
                                    Sales in FY2010 were boosted by the availability of the High Speed Steel
                                    manufacturing capacity throughout the year. Steel Division Sales registered 145.0%
                                    yoy and 32.4% qoq increase in Sales for 4QFY2010.




May 14, 2010                                                                                                              2
Rallis I 4QFY2010 Result Update




               Exhibit 2: Segment-wise Performance (Standalone)
               Y/E March (Rs cr)                          4QFY09      3QFY10      4QFY10        % chg      % chg
                                                              Rs cr       Rs cr      Rs cr        qoq        yoy
               Total Revenue
               A) Graphite & Carbon                         170.5       242.2       280.8        15.9       64.7
               B) Power                                       10.0         9.4        8.6        (8.3)     (13.7)
               C) Steel                                        9.2        17.0       22.6        32.9      145.0
               D) Others                                      30.8        22.7       32.1        41.1        4.4
               Total                                        220.4       291.4       344.1        18.1       56.1
               Less: Inter-Segmental Revenue                  17.1        12.5        5.5       (55.7)     (67.7)
               Net Sales                                    203.3       278.9       338.6        21.4       66.5
               EBIT Margin (%)
               A) Graphite & Carbon                           22.5        34.4       27.2     (726bp)     467bp
               B) Power                                       26.4        76.2       62.0    (1,420bp)   3,559bp
               C) Steel                                     (16.7)        (2.1)       8.5     1,061bp    2518bp
               D) Others                                      10.4        24.3       22.6     (173bp)    1,215bp
               Source: Company, Angel Research.


                          Key takeaways from Management discussion

                          •    Global leaders like SGL and GrafTech have shown more aggression to win
                              orders in the last few months to ensure better capacity utilisation. Consequently,
                              graphite electrode prices have declined by 8-10% over the last few months.
                          •   Management expects downside in pricing to be minimal, 3-4% at most, over the
                              next couple of quarters. Post that, as demand for graphite electrodes increases,
                              capacity utilisation of the global players will increase and prices would start
                              firming up again.
                          •   Currently, graphite electrodes contracts are quarterly or half-yearly in nature.
                          •   Management expects the contracts to remain quarterly, till there is volatility in
                              prices. Once there is stability in prices and buyers expect secular firming of
                              prices, the contracts are expected to return to annual basis.
                          •   Currently, expansion at the Durgapur facility is progressing slowly. However, it is
                              expected to pick up from 1Q or 2Q of FY2011E to get completed within the
                              targeted time frame.


                          Other developments

                          The company has announced final dividend of Rs3.5/share for FY2010, viz. 175% of
                          the Face Value. Last year, the Dividend was Rs3.0/share.




May 14, 2010                                                                                                    3
Rallis I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Outlook and Valuation

               The outlook for GIL remains promising over the next few years, as steel production
               through the EAF route is expected to increase. In fact, current overall steel production
               is near its pre-crisis levels of 2007 and 2008. We maintain our estimates for
               FY2011E and FY2012E. We expect Sales to increase at a CAGR of 19.1% over
               FY2010-12E. OPMs are expected to be 24.4% and 24.2% in FY2011E and FY2012E
               respectively. We expect the company to post an EPS of Rs12.2 in FY2011E and
               Rs14.0 in FY2012E. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.2x and 1.1x FY2011E and
               FY2012E P/BV, respectively. Given the company’s strong growth potential and
               attractive valuations, we maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs117.

               Exhibit 3: One-year forward P/BV band
                                  140
                                  120
                                  100
               Share Pirce (Rs)




                                  80
                                  60
                                  40
                                  20
                                    0
                                        Apr-02



                                        Apr-03



                                        Apr-04



                                        Apr-05



                                        Apr-06



                                        Apr-07



                                        Apr-08



                                        Apr-09



                                        Apr-10
                                        Aug-02
                                        Dec-02

                                        Aug-03
                                        Dec-03

                                        Aug-04
                                        Dec-04

                                        Aug-05
                                        Dec-05

                                        Aug-06
                                        Dec-06

                                        Aug-07
                                        Dec-07

                                        Aug-08
                                        Dec-08

                                        Aug-09
                                        Dec-09
                                        Price   0.2x   0.5x       0.8x         1.1x        1.5x
               Source: Company, Angel Research




May 14, 2010                                                                                         4
Rallis I 4QFY2010 Result Update



               Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)                                                    (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                             FY2007    FY2008    FY2009   FY2010    FY2011E    FY2012E
                Gross sales                             1,171    1,388     1,558    1,394      1,684      2,008
                Less: Excise duty                        53.2     57.1      59.5     47.0       84.0       98.8
                Net Sales                               1,118    1,331     1,498    1,347      1,600      1,910
                Other operating income                      -         -        -         -          -          -
                Total operating income                  1,118    1,331     1,498    1,347      1,600      1,910
                % chg                                             19.1      12.6    (10.1)      18.8       19.3
                Total Expenditure                        893     1,054     1,133      951      1,210      1,448
                Net Raw Materials                        358       468      487       480       512         611
                Other Mfg costs                          301       321      381       350       376         450
                Personnel                                117       130      135       122       157         191
                Other                                    117       134      130          -      165         196
                EBITDA                                   225      278       366      396        390         461
                % chg                                             23.5      31.8      8.3       (1.5)      18.3
                (% of Net Sales)                         20.1     20.9      24.4     29.4       24.4       24.2
                Depreciation& Amortisation                38        41       44        50         49         62
                EBIT                                     187      237       322      346        341         400
                % chg                                             26.4      36.0      7.6       (1.4)      17.2
                (% of Net Sales)                         16.7     17.8      21.5     25.7       21.3       20.9
                Interest & other Charges                  37        43       35        14         17         22
                Other Income                             131        29       25        32         32         32
                (% of PBT)                               46.7     13.2       8.1      8.9        9.0        7.9
                Share in profit of Associates               -         -        -         -          -          -
                Recurring PBT                            281      223       312      364        356         410
                % chg                                            (20.7)     39.8     16.6       (2.1)      15.1
                Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)                -         -      57          -          -          -
                PBT (reported)                           281      223       255      364        356         410
                Tax                                       59        81       18       129       118         135
                (% of PBT)                               20.9     36.2       7.1     35.5       33.0       33.0
                PAT (reported)                           223      142       237      235        239         275
                Add: Share of earnings of associate         -         -        -         -          -          -
                Less: Minority interest (MI)                -         -        -         -          -          -
                Prior period items                        75        (0)      (1)         -          -          -
                PAT after MI (reported)                  223      142       237      235        239         275
                ADJ. PAT                                 147      143       238      235        239         275
                % chg                                             (3.3)     67.3     (1.5)       1.6       15.1
                (% of Net Sales)                         13.2     10.7      15.9     17.4       14.9       14.4
                Basic EPS (Rs)                           15.1      9.6      15.3     13.7       12.2       14.0
                Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)                   12.5      8.0      11.6     10.7       12.2       14.0
                % chg                                            (36.2)     45.4     (7.6)      14.1       15.1




May 14, 2010                                                                                                  5
Rallis I 4QFY2010 Result Update



               Balance Sheet (Consolidated)                                                           (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                            FY2007   FY2008   FY2009   FY2010   FY2011E   FY2012E
                SOURCES OF FUNDS
                Equity Share Capital                     29       30       34       34        39        39
                Preference Capital                        -        -        -        -         -          -
                Reserves& Surplus                       614      725    1,085    1,249     1,527     1,710
                Shareholders Funds                      643      755    1,119    1,283     1,566     1,750
                Minority Interest
                Total Loans                             706      619      528      324       170       320
                Deferred Tax Liability (Net)             64       70       62       74        74        74
                Total Liabilities                     1,413    1,444    1,709    1,681     1,810     2,144
                APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                Gross Block                             815      834      995    1,010     1,030     1,535
                Less: Acc. Depreciation                 262      303      435      485       534       596
                Net Block                               553      531      559      524       495       939
                Capital Work-in-Progress                  8        9       14       20       257        15
                Goodwill                                  -        -        -        -         -          -
                Investments                             111      106      101      187       100       100
                Current Assets                          993    1,133    1,336    1,230     1,334     1,520
                Cash                                     92       66      177       80        85        31
                Loans & Advances                        118      108      132      119       141       168
                Inventories                             439      534      695      729       640       764
                Debtors                                 344      412      318      291       457       546
                Other                                     -       13       14       11        11        11
                Current liabilities                     252      335      301      281       377       430
                Net Current Assets                      741      798    1,035      949       958     1,089
                Mis. Exp. not written off                 -        -        -        -         -          -
                Total Assets                          1,413    1,444    1,709    1,681     1,810     2,144


               Cash Flow (Consolidated)                                                               (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                            FY2007   FY2008   FY2009   FY2010   FY2011E   FY2012E
                Profit before tax                      281      223      254      364       356       410
                Depreciation                            38       41       44       50        49        62
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Working Capital       (166)     (92)    (103)     (23)       18      (158)
                Less: Other income                     131       29       25       32        32        32
                Direct taxes paid                       59       81       18      129       118       135
                Cash Flow from Operations              (38)      62      151      229       273       146
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets           (76)     (21)    (165)     (21)     (257)     (263)
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments            (98)       5        5      (86)       87          -
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and advances     (29)      10      (24)      13       (22)      (27)
                Other income                           131       29       25       32        32        32
                Cash Flow from Investing               (72)      23     (158)     (62)     (160)     (258)
                Issue of Equity                           -      23        4        3       133          -
                Inc./(Dec.) in loans                    89      (86)     (91)    (204)     (154)      150
                Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)               51       53       60       70        92        92
                Others                                  11        6      265        8         4          -
                Cash Flow from Financing                49     (111)     118     (264)     (109)       58
                Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                    (60)     (25)     111      (97)        4       (54)
                Opening Cash balances                  152       92       66      177        80        85
                Closing Cash balances                   92       66      177       80        85        31

May 14, 2010                                                                                                  6
Rallis I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Key Ratios                                                                            (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                             FY2007   FY2008   FY2009   FY2010   FY2011E   FY2012E
                Valuation Ratio (x)
                P/E (on FDEPS)                           7.7     12.1      8.3      9.0       7.9        6.8
                P/E (on basic, reported EPS)             6.4     10.0      6.3      7.0       7.9        6.8
                P/CEPS                                   5.4      7.9      5.9      5.8       6.5        5.6
                P/BV                                     2.2      1.9      1.5      1.3       1.2        1.1
                Dividend yield (%)                       3.1      3.1      3.1      3.6       4.2        4.2
                Market cap. / Sales                      1.3      1.1      1.1      1.2       1.2        1.0
                EV/Sales                                 1.7      1.3      1.1      1.2       1.3        1.0
                EV/EBITDA                                8.3      6.1      4.6      4.1       5.3        4.2
                EV / Total Assets                        1.3      1.2      1.0      1.0       1.1        0.9
                Per Share Data (Rs)
                EPS (Basic)                             15.1      9.6     15.3     13.7      12.2      14.0
                EPS (fully diluted)                     12.5      8.0     11.6     10.7      12.2      14.0
                Cash EPS                                17.7     12.1     16.4     16.6      14.7      17.2
                DPS                                      3.0      3.0      3.0      3.5       4.0        4.0
                Book Value                              36.1     42.2     55.0     58.4      80.1      89.5
                ROE Decomposition (%)
                EBIT margin                             16.7     17.8     21.5     25.7      21.3      20.9
                Tax retention ratio                     79.1     63.8     92.8     64.5      67.0      67.0
                ROCE (Post Tax)                         12.2     11.9     20.9     15.8      14.1      13.3
                Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                  4.4      4.1      5.7      2.2       4.7        6.0
                Leverage (x)                             0.7      0.6      0.3      0.1       0.0        0.1
                Operating ROE                           18.0     16.7     25.6     17.4      14.2      13.7
                Returns (%)
                ROCE (Pre-tax)                          14.7     16.6     20.4     20.4      19.5      20.2
                Angel ROIC                              15.6     18.7     22.7     24.8      24.9      20.0
                ROE                                     26.3     20.4     25.3     19.6      16.7      16.6
                Turnover ratios (x)
                Asset Turnover (Gross Block)             1.5      1.6      1.6      1.3       1.6        1.5
                Asset Turnover (Net Block)               2.1      2.5      2.7      2.5       3.1        2.7
                Operating Income / Invested
                                                         0.9      1.1      1.1      1.0       1.2        1.0
                Capital
                Inventory / Sales (days)                125      133      150      193       156        134
                Receivables (days)                       96      104       89       83        85          96
                Payables (days)                          79       82       77       79        67          69
                Working capital cycle (ex-cash)
                                                        180      189      194      234       199        185
                (days)
                Solvency ratios (x)
                Gross debt to equity                     1.1      0.8      0.5      0.3       0.1        0.2
                Net debt to equity                       0.8      0.6      0.2      0.0         -        0.1
                Net debt to EBITDA                       2.2      1.6      0.7      0.1         -        0.4
                Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)      5.1      5.5      9.2     23.9      19.7      18.1




May 14, 2010                                                                                              7
Rallis I 4QFY2010 Result Update



Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800                                           E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                       Website: www.angeltrade.com


DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved),
and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true,
and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we
cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel
Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other
reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services
in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the
use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




    Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                                    Graphite India
    1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                                           No
    2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                                                     No
    3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock                                          No
    4. Broking relationship with company covered                                                                No
    Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.
.




                                  Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                                      Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800



      Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
      INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
      Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
      CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302




May 14, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                  8

Graphite india ru4 qfy2010-140510

  • 1.
    4QFY2010 Result UpdateI Capital Goods May 14, 2010 Graphite India BUY CMP Rs99 Performance Highlights Target Price Rs117 Graphite India’s (GIL) 4QFY2010 Sales growth of 66% yoy, on a Standalone Investment Period 12 Months basis, came in line with our estimates. However, FY2010 Sales (Consolidated) fell slightly more than our expectation due to the lower-than-expected Stock Info production at the company’s Nuremberg facility. Nevertheless, going forward, Sector Capital Goods we believe that the company is well placed on account of strengthening demand for graphite electrodes from the Steel industry and large capacity Market Cap (Rs cr) 1,695 expansion in the Durgapur plant. We maintain our Earnings estimates for Beta 0.7 FY2011E and FY2012E. At current levels, the stock is available at attractive valuations. We maintain a Buy on the stock. 52 WK High / Low 112/38 Muted Sales, Strong Margins: FY2010 Sales (Consolidated) fell 10.1%, much Avg. Daily Volume 152,552 lower than our estimates, mainly because of the 50% drop in production at its Face Value (Rs) 2 German facility. Production at the Indian plants fell 24% yoy. However, OPM for FY2010 increased to a strong 29.4% (24.4%) owing to higher realizations. BSE Sensex 16,995 Interest cost for the year fell to Rs14.5cr (Rs35.1cr) mainly due to lower Nifty 5,094 working capital requirements. Consequently, PAT for the year came in line with our estimate at Rs235cr. Reuters Code GRPH.BO Bloomberg Code GRIL@IN Outlook and Valuation: Going ahead, we expect the demand for graphite electrodes to be strong as steel manufacturing through the EAF route picks up Shareholding Pattern (%) and the effect of de-stocking of inventories reverses. The company’s move to increase capacity at the Durgapur facility by 22,000MT/year as against the Promoters 63.6 earlier plan to increase it by 10,500MT/year would provide a major boost to MF/Banks/Indian FLs 14.3 the company’s future growth prospects. Margins are expected to stay strong at over 24% levels during the next few years. Overall, we expect GIL to register a FII/NRIs/OCBs 8.1 CAGR of 19.1% in Top-line and 8.2% in Profit over FY2010-12E. At the Indian Public 14.0 current levels, the stock is trading at 1.2x and 1.1x FY2011E and FY2012E P/BV, respectively. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Rs117. Sensex 5.2 43.1 21.7 Graphite 18.0 138.2 71.8 Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 1,498 1,347 1,600 1,910 % chg 12.6 (10.1) 18.8 19.3 Net Profit 237 235 239 275 % chg 66.4 (0.9) 1.6 15.1 EBITDA Margin (%) 24.4 29.4 24.4 24.2 FDEPS (Rs) 11.6 10.7 12.2 14.0 P/E (x) 8.3 9.0 7.9 6.8 P/BV (x) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 RoE (%) 25.3 19.6 16.7 16.6 RoACE (%) 20.4 20.4 19.5 20.2 Jai Sharda EV/Sales (x) 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 305 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.6 4.1 5.3 4.2 E-mail: jai.sharda@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research 1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2.
    Rallis I 4QFY2010Result Update Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance (Standalone) Y/E March (Rs cr) 4Q FY10 3Q FY10 % chg 4Q FY09 % chg FY10 FY09 % chg (qoq) (yoy) Net Sales 338.6 278.9 21.4 203.3 66.5 1,131.2 1,125.9 0.5 Consumption of RM 141.3 97.2 45.4 67.9 108.2 417.2 380.7 9.6 (% of Sales) 41.7 34.8 33.4 36.9 33.8 Staff Costs 19.8 18.7 5.7 17.2 15.0 74.3 75.0 (0.9) (% of Sales) 5.8 6.7 8.4 6.6 6.7 Other Expenses 79.3 60.4 31.4 85.2 (6.9) 261.0 438.1 (40.4) (% of Sales) 23.4 21.6 41.9 23.1 38.9 Total Expenditure 240.4 176.2 36.4 170.3 41.2 752.5 893.8 (15.8) Operating Profit 98.2 102.7 (4.4) 33.1 - 378.7 232.1 63.1 OPM 29.0 36.8 16.3 33.5 20.6 Interest 1.8 1.7 7.0 7.8 (76.5) 10.5 25.9 (59.6) Depreciation 10.3 9.8 5.2 9.3 9.9 39.5 34.4 15.1 Other Income 2.2 5.9 (62.5) 14.9 (85.2) 30.6 28.9 5.8 PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 88.3 97.2 (9.1) 30.8 186.2 359.3 200.8 79.0 Extr. Income/(Expense) - - - - - PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 88.3 97.2 (9.1) 30.8 - 359.3 200.8 79.0 (% of Sales) 26.1 34.8 15.2 31.8 17.8 Provision for Taxation 32.7 34.2 (4.4) (51.7) - 127.1 7.2 1,670.1 (% of PBT) 37.0 35.2 - 35.4 3.6 Reported PAT 55.6 63.0 (11.7) 82.6 - 232.2 193.6 19.9 PATM 16.4 22.6 40.6 20.5 17.2 Equity shares (cr) 17.2 17.1 15.1 17.2 15.1 EPS (Rs) 3.2 3.7 (12.0) 5.5 - 13.6 12.6 8.2 Adjusted PAT 55.6 63.0 (11.7) 82.6 - 232.2 193.6 19.9 Source: Company, Angel Research. Key Highlights For 4QFY2010, the company’s Sales grew at an impressive 66.5% yoy and 21.4% qoq albeit on a low base due to the slowdown in 4QFY2009. In 4QFY2010, OPM at 29.0% fell from the high of 36.8% in 3QFY2010. For FY2010, Standalone OPM stood at the historical high of 33.5%. This came primarily due to the fact that globally graphite electrode prices increased in CY2009 on higher needle coke prices, but other raw material and manufacturing costs fell during the year. Going ahead, OPMs are expected to further correct to more reasonable levels of around 24.0%. PAT Margin for 4QFY2010 was 16.4% compared to 22.6% in 3QFY2010. Sales in FY2010 were boosted by the availability of the High Speed Steel manufacturing capacity throughout the year. Steel Division Sales registered 145.0% yoy and 32.4% qoq increase in Sales for 4QFY2010. May 14, 2010 2
  • 3.
    Rallis I 4QFY2010Result Update Exhibit 2: Segment-wise Performance (Standalone) Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY09 3QFY10 4QFY10 % chg % chg Rs cr Rs cr Rs cr qoq yoy Total Revenue A) Graphite & Carbon 170.5 242.2 280.8 15.9 64.7 B) Power 10.0 9.4 8.6 (8.3) (13.7) C) Steel 9.2 17.0 22.6 32.9 145.0 D) Others 30.8 22.7 32.1 41.1 4.4 Total 220.4 291.4 344.1 18.1 56.1 Less: Inter-Segmental Revenue 17.1 12.5 5.5 (55.7) (67.7) Net Sales 203.3 278.9 338.6 21.4 66.5 EBIT Margin (%) A) Graphite & Carbon 22.5 34.4 27.2 (726bp) 467bp B) Power 26.4 76.2 62.0 (1,420bp) 3,559bp C) Steel (16.7) (2.1) 8.5 1,061bp 2518bp D) Others 10.4 24.3 22.6 (173bp) 1,215bp Source: Company, Angel Research. Key takeaways from Management discussion • Global leaders like SGL and GrafTech have shown more aggression to win orders in the last few months to ensure better capacity utilisation. Consequently, graphite electrode prices have declined by 8-10% over the last few months. • Management expects downside in pricing to be minimal, 3-4% at most, over the next couple of quarters. Post that, as demand for graphite electrodes increases, capacity utilisation of the global players will increase and prices would start firming up again. • Currently, graphite electrodes contracts are quarterly or half-yearly in nature. • Management expects the contracts to remain quarterly, till there is volatility in prices. Once there is stability in prices and buyers expect secular firming of prices, the contracts are expected to return to annual basis. • Currently, expansion at the Durgapur facility is progressing slowly. However, it is expected to pick up from 1Q or 2Q of FY2011E to get completed within the targeted time frame. Other developments The company has announced final dividend of Rs3.5/share for FY2010, viz. 175% of the Face Value. Last year, the Dividend was Rs3.0/share. May 14, 2010 3
  • 4.
    Rallis I 4QFY2010Result Update Outlook and Valuation The outlook for GIL remains promising over the next few years, as steel production through the EAF route is expected to increase. In fact, current overall steel production is near its pre-crisis levels of 2007 and 2008. We maintain our estimates for FY2011E and FY2012E. We expect Sales to increase at a CAGR of 19.1% over FY2010-12E. OPMs are expected to be 24.4% and 24.2% in FY2011E and FY2012E respectively. We expect the company to post an EPS of Rs12.2 in FY2011E and Rs14.0 in FY2012E. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.2x and 1.1x FY2011E and FY2012E P/BV, respectively. Given the company’s strong growth potential and attractive valuations, we maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs117. Exhibit 3: One-year forward P/BV band 140 120 100 Share Pirce (Rs) 80 60 40 20 0 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Aug-02 Dec-02 Aug-03 Dec-03 Aug-04 Dec-04 Aug-05 Dec-05 Aug-06 Dec-06 Aug-07 Dec-07 Aug-08 Dec-08 Aug-09 Dec-09 Price 0.2x 0.5x 0.8x 1.1x 1.5x Source: Company, Angel Research May 14, 2010 4
  • 5.
    Rallis I 4QFY2010Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 1,171 1,388 1,558 1,394 1,684 2,008 Less: Excise duty 53.2 57.1 59.5 47.0 84.0 98.8 Net Sales 1,118 1,331 1,498 1,347 1,600 1,910 Other operating income - - - - - - Total operating income 1,118 1,331 1,498 1,347 1,600 1,910 % chg 19.1 12.6 (10.1) 18.8 19.3 Total Expenditure 893 1,054 1,133 951 1,210 1,448 Net Raw Materials 358 468 487 480 512 611 Other Mfg costs 301 321 381 350 376 450 Personnel 117 130 135 122 157 191 Other 117 134 130 - 165 196 EBITDA 225 278 366 396 390 461 % chg 23.5 31.8 8.3 (1.5) 18.3 (% of Net Sales) 20.1 20.9 24.4 29.4 24.4 24.2 Depreciation& Amortisation 38 41 44 50 49 62 EBIT 187 237 322 346 341 400 % chg 26.4 36.0 7.6 (1.4) 17.2 (% of Net Sales) 16.7 17.8 21.5 25.7 21.3 20.9 Interest & other Charges 37 43 35 14 17 22 Other Income 131 29 25 32 32 32 (% of PBT) 46.7 13.2 8.1 8.9 9.0 7.9 Share in profit of Associates - - - - - - Recurring PBT 281 223 312 364 356 410 % chg (20.7) 39.8 16.6 (2.1) 15.1 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - 57 - - - PBT (reported) 281 223 255 364 356 410 Tax 59 81 18 129 118 135 (% of PBT) 20.9 36.2 7.1 35.5 33.0 33.0 PAT (reported) 223 142 237 235 239 275 Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - - Prior period items 75 (0) (1) - - - PAT after MI (reported) 223 142 237 235 239 275 ADJ. PAT 147 143 238 235 239 275 % chg (3.3) 67.3 (1.5) 1.6 15.1 (% of Net Sales) 13.2 10.7 15.9 17.4 14.9 14.4 Basic EPS (Rs) 15.1 9.6 15.3 13.7 12.2 14.0 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 12.5 8.0 11.6 10.7 12.2 14.0 % chg (36.2) 45.4 (7.6) 14.1 15.1 May 14, 2010 5
  • 6.
    Rallis I 4QFY2010Result Update Balance Sheet (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 29 30 34 34 39 39 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 614 725 1,085 1,249 1,527 1,710 Shareholders Funds 643 755 1,119 1,283 1,566 1,750 Minority Interest Total Loans 706 619 528 324 170 320 Deferred Tax Liability (Net) 64 70 62 74 74 74 Total Liabilities 1,413 1,444 1,709 1,681 1,810 2,144 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 815 834 995 1,010 1,030 1,535 Less: Acc. Depreciation 262 303 435 485 534 596 Net Block 553 531 559 524 495 939 Capital Work-in-Progress 8 9 14 20 257 15 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 111 106 101 187 100 100 Current Assets 993 1,133 1,336 1,230 1,334 1,520 Cash 92 66 177 80 85 31 Loans & Advances 118 108 132 119 141 168 Inventories 439 534 695 729 640 764 Debtors 344 412 318 291 457 546 Other - 13 14 11 11 11 Current liabilities 252 335 301 281 377 430 Net Current Assets 741 798 1,035 949 958 1,089 Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - - Total Assets 1,413 1,444 1,709 1,681 1,810 2,144 Cash Flow (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 281 223 254 364 356 410 Depreciation 38 41 44 50 49 62 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Working Capital (166) (92) (103) (23) 18 (158) Less: Other income 131 29 25 32 32 32 Direct taxes paid 59 81 18 129 118 135 Cash Flow from Operations (38) 62 151 229 273 146 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (76) (21) (165) (21) (257) (263) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (98) 5 5 (86) 87 - (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and advances (29) 10 (24) 13 (22) (27) Other income 131 29 25 32 32 32 Cash Flow from Investing (72) 23 (158) (62) (160) (258) Issue of Equity - 23 4 3 133 - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 89 (86) (91) (204) (154) 150 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 51 53 60 70 92 92 Others 11 6 265 8 4 - Cash Flow from Financing 49 (111) 118 (264) (109) 58 Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (60) (25) 111 (97) 4 (54) Opening Cash balances 152 92 66 177 80 85 Closing Cash balances 92 66 177 80 85 31 May 14, 2010 6
  • 7.
    Rallis I 4QFY2010Result Update Key Ratios (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 7.7 12.1 8.3 9.0 7.9 6.8 P/E (on basic, reported EPS) 6.4 10.0 6.3 7.0 7.9 6.8 P/CEPS 5.4 7.9 5.9 5.8 6.5 5.6 P/BV 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 Dividend yield (%) 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.6 4.2 4.2 Market cap. / Sales 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 EV/Sales 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 EV/EBITDA 8.3 6.1 4.6 4.1 5.3 4.2 EV / Total Assets 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 15.1 9.6 15.3 13.7 12.2 14.0 EPS (fully diluted) 12.5 8.0 11.6 10.7 12.2 14.0 Cash EPS 17.7 12.1 16.4 16.6 14.7 17.2 DPS 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.0 Book Value 36.1 42.2 55.0 58.4 80.1 89.5 ROE Decomposition (%) EBIT margin 16.7 17.8 21.5 25.7 21.3 20.9 Tax retention ratio 79.1 63.8 92.8 64.5 67.0 67.0 ROCE (Post Tax) 12.2 11.9 20.9 15.8 14.1 13.3 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 4.4 4.1 5.7 2.2 4.7 6.0 Leverage (x) 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 Operating ROE 18.0 16.7 25.6 17.4 14.2 13.7 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 14.7 16.6 20.4 20.4 19.5 20.2 Angel ROIC 15.6 18.7 22.7 24.8 24.9 20.0 ROE 26.3 20.4 25.3 19.6 16.7 16.6 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.5 Asset Turnover (Net Block) 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.5 3.1 2.7 Operating Income / Invested 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 Capital Inventory / Sales (days) 125 133 150 193 156 134 Receivables (days) 96 104 89 83 85 96 Payables (days) 79 82 77 79 67 69 Working capital cycle (ex-cash) 180 189 194 234 199 185 (days) Solvency ratios (x) Gross debt to equity 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 Net debt to equity 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 - 0.1 Net debt to EBITDA 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 - 0.4 Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 5.1 5.5 9.2 23.9 19.7 18.1 May 14, 2010 7
  • 8.
    Rallis I 4QFY2010Result Update Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement Graphite India 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies. . Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 May 14, 2010 8