Idea 2 qfy2011 result update -291010

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
(` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % qoq 2QFY11E Var. (%)
Revenue 3,659.2 3,654.2 0.14 3,828.0 (4.4)
EBITDA margin (%) 24.0 24.3 (30)bp 24.2 (18)bp
PAT 179.7 201.9 (11.0) 192.5 (6.6)
Source: Company, Angel Research
No growth in revenue due to erosion in key performance indicators (KPIs): For
2QFY2011, Idea reported dismal numbers with revenue flat at `3,659cr (v/s our
estimate of `3,828cr), primarily on the back of tumbling minutes of usage (MOU)
and fall in average revenue per minute (ARPM). MOU dropped by 5% qoq to
394mins (v/s our estimate of 411mins). ARPM also slipped to `0.42/min with a
4.5% qoq decline (v/s our estimate of `0.43/min). Subscriber growth stood at
7.7% qoq, taking the overall subscriber base to 74.2mn. Average revenue per
user (ARPU) slipped by 8.2% qoq to `167 (v/s our estimate of `178).
Decline in EBITDA margin restricted even with poor KPIs: Despite significant
erosion in KPIs of the mobility business in 2QFY2011, EBITDA per minute (EPM)
fell only by 3.4% qoq to `0.10/min because of significant improvement in EBITDA
margin for new service areas as well as the Indus Tower business. These
operational gains helped Idea’s overall operational profitability, leading to a
30bp qoq decline in EBITDA margin to 24%, despite poor KPIs and cost pressures
such as annual wage increment, which negatively affected margin by 123bp qoq.
Outlook and valuation: We expect MOU to expand moderately in 2HY2011;
however, growth is likely to cease beyond that because of the further increase in
capacity due to launch by various new operators in new circles. Voice ARPM is
likely to remain under pressure. At the CMP, the stock is trading at EV/EBITDA of
8.2x FY2012, which is on the higher side compared to Indian Telecom leader
Bharti Airtel, which is trading at EV/EBITDA of 6.6x FY2012, even with superior
KPIs and better balance sheet. Further erosion in KPIs due to over capacity and
increased leverage relating to 3G rollout makes the stock expensive at these
levels. Hence, valuing Idea at EV/EBITDA of 7.5x FY2012, we maintain our
Reduce rating with a Target Price of `59.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net revenue 10,131.3 12,447.1 15,280.3 17,171.2
% chg 50.8 22.9 22.8 12.4
Net profit 881.1 953.9 735.6 557.7
% chg (15.6) 8.3 (22.9) (24.2)
EBITDA margin (%) 27.8 27.4 24.6 25.1
EPS (`) 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.7
P/E (x) 23.7 23.2 30.1 39.8
P/BV (x) 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7
ROE (%) 9.4 7.4 6.0 4.3
ROCE (%) 5.3 4.6 3.4 2.3
EV/Sales (x) 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.0 8.7 9.7 8.2
REDUCE
CMP `67
Target Price `59
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 47.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 7.8
FII / NRIs / OCBs 7.6
Indian Public / Others 37.7
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 11.3 24.8 0.3
Idea (2.2) 21.1 (49.7)
10
20,032
6,018
IDEA.BO
IDEA@IN
22,177
0.7
80/47
1097375
Telecom
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (` cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Srishti Anand
+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 345
srishti.anand@angelbroking.com
Ankita Somani
+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 329
ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
Idea Cellular
Performance highlights
2QFY11 Result Update | Telecom
October 29, 2010

Idea Cellular | 2QFY11 Result Update
October 29, 2010 2
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011– Financial performance (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
(` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 2QFY10 % chg (yoy) 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg( yoy)
Net revenue 3,659.2 3,654.2 0.1 2,973.9 23.0 7,313.3 5,949.8 22.9
Operating Expenditure 2,780.4 2,765.3 0.5 2,164.4 28.5 5,545.7 4,280.4 29.6
EBITDA 878.8 888.9 (1.1) 809.5 8.6 1,767.7 1,669.5 5.9
Depreciation & Amortisation 582.0 565.6 2.9 479.7 21.3 1,147.6 935.2 22.7
Interest charges 102.8 114.2 (10.0) 105.7 (2.8) 216.9 192.6 12.6
EBIT 194.0 209.1 (7.2) 224.2 (13.4) 403.2 541.6 (25.6)
Other Income - - 31.7 - 31.7
PBT 194.0 209.1 (7.2) 255.9 (24.2) 403.2 573.3 (29.7)
Income Tax 14.3 7.3 97.1 35.7 (60.0) 21.5 56.1 (61.6)
PAT 179.7 201.9 (11.0) 220.2 (18.4) 381.6 517.2 (26.2)
Minority Interest - - - - - - - -
Adj PAT 179.7 201.9 (11.0) 220.2 (18.4) 381.6 517.2 (26.2)
EPS (`) 0.5 0.6 (11.0) 0.7 (23.3) 1.2 1.7 (30.7)
EBITDA margin (%) 24.0 24.3 (31)bp 27.2 (320)bp 24.2 28.1 (389)bp
EBIT margin (%) 5.3 5.7 (42)bp 7.5 (223)bp 5.5 9.1 (359)bp
PAT margin (%) 4.9 5.5 (62)bp 7.4 (249)bp 5.2 8.7 (348)bp
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2011 – KPI data for mobility business
2QFY11 2QFY11E Var. (%) 1QFY11 2QFY10 % chg (qoq) % chg (yoy)
ARPM (`/min) 0.42 0.43 (2.3) 0.44 0.56 (4.5) (25.0)
MOU 394 411 (4.1) 415 375 (5.1) 5.1
ARPU (`) 167 178 (6.2) 182 209 (8.2) (20.1)
EPM (`/min) 0.1 0.1 - 0.11 0.14 (9.1) (28.6)
Subscriber base (mn) 74.2 74.7 (0.7) 68.9 46.8 7.7 58.5
No growth in mobility revenue due to erosion in KPIs
The mobility segment’s revenue remained flat qoq at `3635.6cr on the back of
tumbling MOU as well as falling ARPM. MOU witnessed a fall on the back of
seasonally weak quarter as well as over capacity created due to new operators
launching in various circles. This resulted in a steep decline in MOU by 5.1% qoq
to 394mins (v/s our estimate of 411mins).

October 29, 2010 3
Exhibit 3: Trend in MOU
During the quarter, the tail-end effect of the price war continued, with voice ARPM
still under pressure. However, improvement in VAS share arrested the decline in
overall ARPM. During 2QFY2011, Idea managed to improve its VAS share by
30bp qoq to 12.9%, with ARPM declining by 4.5% qoq to `0.42/min.
Exhibit 4: Trend in ARPM
(2.3)
(1.2)
(3.4)
(0.7)
3.7
2.3
4.3
(5.1)
(6)
(3)
0
3
6
350
375
400
425
450
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
(
%
)
(mins)
MOU qoq growth
(4.6)
3.2
(1.6)
(7.9)
(3.4)
(8.9)
(7.8)
(6.4)
(4.5)
(12)
(8)
(4)
0
4
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
(
%
)
(`/min)
ARPM qoq growth

October 29, 2010 4
Exhibit 5: Trend in VAS share in mobility revenue
Net addition in subscriber base tapered off in 1HFY2011, as compared to
2HFY2010. However, additions on a qoq basis stood higher at 5.3mn subscribers
(v/s only 5mn subscribers in 1QFY2011), an increase of 5.3% qoq. Thus, higher
net additions in subscriber base in 2QFY2011 arrested the steep downfall in ARPU,
which was negatively affected by poor MOU and lower ARPM.
Exhibit 6: Trend in subscriber net additions
9.8
9.5 9.4
10.1
10.6
11.2
12.4
12.6
12.9
9
10
11
12
13
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
(%)
VAS share
6.8
4.0
5.0
4.1
4.4
6.2 6.2
5.1 5.3
0
2
4
6
8
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
No.ofsubscribers(mn)

October 29, 2010 5
Exhibit 7: Trend in ARPU
EBITDA margin’s decline restricted even with poor KPIs
Despite significant erosion in the KPIs of the mobility business in 2QFY2011, EPM
fell by only 3.4% qoq to `0.10/min because of significant improvement in EBITDA
margins for the NSA and Indus Tower businesses. During the quarter, revenue for
established services areas (ESA) stood at `3,350.7cr, down 1% qoq, with EBITDA
margin slipping by 60bp to 27% in 2QFY2011. During the quarter, revenue of the
NSA business grew by 10.5% qoq to `338.4cr, with EBITDA losses declining to
42.2% from 45.7% in 1QFY2011. In addition, the Indus Tower business showed
8.7% qoq revenue growth to `277cr on the back of improved tenancy ratio. In
fact, EBITDA margin expanded by 510bp qoq to 42.2% for the Indus Tower
business. These operational gains in NSA business and the Indus Tower business
helped the overall operational profitability, leading to a 30bp decline in EBITDA
margin despite poor KPIs as well as cost pressures such as annual wage increment,
which negatively affected the margin by 123bp qoq.
Exhibit 8: Trend in EPM
(6.1)
1.9
(4.5)
(8.7)
(9.9)
(4.3)
(7.5)
(1.4)
(8.4)
(12)
(6)
0
6
150
200
250
300
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
(
%
)
(`/subscriber)
ARPU qoq growth
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.14
0.13 0.13
0.11 0.10
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
(`/min)

October 29, 2010 6
Exhibit 9: Trend in EBITDA margin
NLD revenue growing at a strong pace
Idea has been witnessing a secular trend of strong growth in minute on network
for national long distance (NLD) calls. Growth was subdued at 3.6% qoq in
2QFY2011 due to the seasonality effect, but operational performance was strong
with 230bp qoq improvement in EBIT margin to 44.9%.
Exhibit 10: Trend in NLD revenue and profitability
2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
NLD revenue (` cr) 269 364 415 440 477
% qoq growth 24.8 35.2 14.1 6.1 8.2
Minutes on network (mn) 32,789 37,496 42,883 53,681 55,593
% qoq growth 3.6 14.4 14.4 25.2 3.6
EBIT margin (%) 36.2 48.2 40.1 42.6 44.9
Investment arguments
Overall ARPU to remain under pressure
Going forward, we expect MOU to expand at a moderate pace in 2HY2011.
However, growth is expected to cease beyond that because of the ever-increasing
over capacity. Voice ARPM is expected to remain under pressure. However,
improvement in VAS share will help to arrest the downfall in overall ARPM. Thus,
we expect ARPU to continue its free fall, with decent subscriber growth rate
supporting growth in the mobility segment’s revenue, which is expected to witness
an 18.6% CAGR over FY2010–12.
30 30 32
28 27
(46)
(54) (52)
(46) (42)
32 35 36 37
42
27 26 28 24 24
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)
Established serviceareas New service areas Indus Consolidated

October 29, 2010 7
Exhibit 11: Assumptions for KPIs
FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E % CAGR
ARPM (`/min) 0.64 0.53 0.42 0.40 (14.2)
VAS share (%) 9.4 11.1 13.2 14.4 500 bp
MOU 421 393 407 401 (1.6)
ARPU (`) 268 208 172 161 (15.6)
Subscriber base (mn) at EOP 43.0 63.8 82.8 96.6 30.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: EOP refers to end of period.
EBITDA margin to rebound in FY2012
Idea’s EBITDA margin attained a new lower orbit in 1HFY2011 at 24.2% v/s
27.4% in FY2010 on the back of increased license and spectrum-related charges
as well as increasing roaming and access charges due to the entry of new
operators. Going forward, we expect EBITDA margin to expand primarily due to
network rollout expected to be done, with the backhaul being the company’s
owned sites, which will result in lower network operating expenditure. Hence, we
expect EBITDA margin to rebound only in FY2012 to 25.1% after slumping to
24.6% in FY2011.
3G rollout – Heavy on balance sheet, likely to erode profitability due to
higher capital charges
In 2QFY2011, Idea was awarded the 3G spectrum in all the 11 important service
areas, where it is in the process of rolling out extensive 3G networks. Further, Idea
is pursuing long-term arrangements with select quality operators for service areas
where the company was not awarded 3G spectrum. The launch of 3G services is
expected any time around the end of CY2010.
In 1QFY2011, Idea had taken a debt of `5,768cr to fund the buyout of 3G license
in 11 circles, which escalated its net debt–to-EBITDA from 2.2x to 3.2x FY2010
EBITDA. The rollout needs additional capex of `3,200cr in 2HFY2011, which will
be again funded through debt escalating this ratio further to 4.3x. Also, net
profitability will erode as capital charges such as amortisation of 3G license fee
and interest expense (~`160cr for 1HFY2011) on debt-related to procurement of
the same, which is getting capitalised as of now, will start getting charged directly
to the company’s profit and loss account. Thus, we expect net profit margin to be
nearly halved from 7.7% in FY2010 to 3.3% in FY2012E.
Valuations
At the CMP, the stock is trading at EV/EBITDA of 8.2x FY2012, which is on the
higher side compared to Indian Telecom leader Bharti Airtel, which is trading at
EV/EBITDA of 6.6x FY2012, even with superior KPIs and better balance sheet. The
stock has been trading at 5–10x one-year forward EV/EBITDA since the past one
year. Further erosion in KPIs due to over capacity and further increase in leverage
relating to 3G rollout makes the stock expensive at these levels. Hence, we value
the stock at EV/EBITDA of 7.5x FY2012E, i.e. average of the above band
mentioned. At current levels, we continue to maintain our Reduce rating on the
stock with a Target Price of `59.

October 29, 2010 8
Exhibit 12: One year forward EV/EBITDA
Exhibit 13: Valuations
` cr FY2012E
EBITDA 4307
Target EV/EBITDA (x) 7.5
Target EV 32302
Debt 13400
Cash 605
Target Mcap 19507
Target price (`) 59
Exhibit 14: Change in estimates

FY2011E FY2012E
Parameter Earlier Revised Variation Earlier Revised Variation
(` cr) estimates estimates (%) estimates estimates (%)
Net revenue 15,500 15,280 (1.4) 18,045 17,171 (4.8)
EBITDA 3,794 3,762 (0.8) 4,702 4,307 (8.4)
Other income - - - - - -
PBT 898 798 (11.1) 1,236 634 (48.7)
Tax 93 62 (32.9) 185 76 (59.0)
PAT 805 736 (8.6) 1,051 558 (46.9)
Exhibit 15: Recommendation summary
Company Reco. CMP Tgt. price Upside FY2012E P/BV FY2012E P/E FY2010-12E FY2012E RoCE FY2012E RoE
(`) (`) (%) (x) (x) EPS CAGR (%) (%) (%)
Bharti Airtel Buy 326.0 360.0 10.4 2.1 13.3 2.5 10.9 17.6
Idea Cellular Reduce 67.2 59.0 (12.2) 1.7 39.8 (23.5) 2.3 4.3
Reliance Communication Sell 180.0 140.0 (22.2) 0.8 19.5 (34.7) 4.9 4.9
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10EV(`cr)
EV 25 20 15 10 5

October 29, 2010 9
Profit and loss account (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Net sales 10,131 12,447 15,280 17,171
Network operating expenditure 2,108 3,127 4,114 4,512
% of net sales 20.8 25.1 26.9 26.3
License and WPC charges 1,124 1,347 1,758 1,975
% of net sales 11.1 10.8 11.5 11.5
Roaming and access charges 1,844 1,800 2,460 2,812
% of net sales 18.2 14.5 16.1 16.4
Other expenses 2,242 2,766 3,186 3,565
Total expenditure 7,318 9,040 11,518 12,864
% of net sales 72.2 72.6 75.4 74.9
EBITDA 2,813 3,407 3,762 4,307
% of net sales 27.8 27.4 24.6 25.1
Depreciation and amortisation 1,403 2,015 2,432 2,867
Interest charges 495 401 533 806
EBIT 916 992 798 634
% of net sales 9.0 8.0 5.2 3.7
Other Income, net 23 84 - -
Profit Before Tax 939 1,075 798 634
Provision for Tax 58 121 62 76
% of PBT 6.1 11.3 7.8 12.0
PAT 881 954 736 558
Share in earnings of associate - - - -
Minority interest - - - -
Profit after minority interest 881 954 736 558
Fully diluted EPS (`) 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.7

October 29, 2010 10
Balance sheet (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Liabilities
Share Capital 3,100 3,300 3,301 3,300
Reserves & Surplus 10,671 8,530 9,265 9,823
Additional in paid up capital - - - -
Stock Option Outstanding 18 44 44 44
Total Shareholders’ funds 13,790 11,874 12,611 13,167
Convertible preference shares 2 2 2 2
Secured Loans 6,545 7,317 7,500 6,400
Unsecured Loans 2,367 543 7,000 7,000
Total Debt 8,912 7,859 14,500 13,400
Deferred Tax Liabilities 113 214 214 214
Other Liabilities - - - -
Total Liabilities 22,817 19,950 27,327 26,784
Assets
Gross Block - Fixed Assets 20,523 27,059 28,055 30,247
Accumulated Depreciation 5,997 8,891 8,384 10,670
Net Block 14,526 18,168 19,672 19,577
Capital WIP 2,141 547 400 400
Total Fixed Assets 16,667 18,714 20,072 19,977
Net Intangible Assets 6,955 6,576
Investments 2,045 1,130 426 305
Goodwill on Consolidation 2,246 6 6 6
Non Compete fees - - - -
Current Assets
Inventories 52 54 55 55
Debtors 362 466 502 565
Cash 3,086 290 300 300
Loans and Advances 1,682 2,556 3,056 3,434
Other Current Assets 186 298 381 429
Total Current Assets 5,369 3,663 4,295 4,783
Less:- Current Liab 3,864 3,845 4,733 5,287
Less:-Provisions 172 223 260 292
Net Current Assets 1,332 (405) (698) (796)
Profit and Loss account 526 504 566 715
Total Assets 22,817 19,950 27,327 26,784
Cash flow statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)

October 29, 2010 11
Pretax profit from operations 916 992 798 634
Depreciation 1,403 2,015 2,432 2,867
Expenses (deferred)/written off/others - - - -
Pre tax cash from operations 2,319 3,007 3,230 3,501
Other income/prior period ad 23 84 - -
Net cash from operations 2,342 3,090 3,230 3,501
Tax (58) (121) (62) (76)
Cash profits 2,284 2,969 3,167 3,425
(Inc)/Dec in
Current assets (1,230) (1,091) (622) (488)
Current liabilities 1,334 32 925 585
Net trade working capital 104 (1,059) 304 97
Cash flow from operating activities 2,389 1,910 3,471 3,522
(Inc)/Dec in fixed assets (7,354) (4,062) (3,789) (2,772)
(Inc)/Dec in intangibles - - (6,955) 379
(Inc)/Dec in investments (1,489) 915 704 121
(Inc)/Dec in net Deferred Tax assets 47 101 - -
(Inc)/Dec in Minority interest - - - -
(Inc)/Dec in profit and loss account 882 23 (63) (148)
(Inc)/Dec in other non-current assets (2,240) 2,240 - -
Cash flow from investing activities (10,154) (784) (10,102) (2,421)
Inc/(Dec) in debt 2,397 (1,053) 6,641 (1,100)
Inc/(Dec) in equity/premium 7,956 (2,869) 1 (1)
Dividends
Cash flow from financing activities 10,353 (3,923) 6,642 (1,101)
Cash generated/(utilised) 2,587 (2,797) 10 0
Cash at start of the year 497 3,086 290 300
Cash at end of the year 3,084 290 300 300

October 29, 2010 12
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 23.7 23.2 30.1 39.8
P/CEPS 9.7 7.5 7.0 6.5
P/BVPS 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EV/Sales 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.1
EV/EBITDA 10.0 8.7 9.7 8.2
EV/Total assets 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3
Per share data (`)
EPS(Fully diluted) 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.7
Cash EPS 6.9 9.0 9.6 10.4
Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Book value 41.8 36.0 38.2 39.9
DuPont analysis
Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0
EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6
Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.0
Operating ROE 6.4 8.0 5.8 4.2
Return ratios (%)
ROCE (pre-tax) 5.3 4.6 3.4 2.3
Angel ROIC 6.3 5.1 3.2 2.1
ROE 9.4 7.4 6.0 4.3
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset turnover (fixed assets) 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2
Receivables days 10 12 12 11
Payable days 162 156 150 150

October 29, 2010 13
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Idea Cellular
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Idea 2 qfy2011 result update -291010

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Idea 2 qfy2011 result update -291010