Eros International IPOnote

IPO Note | Media

Eros International Media SUBSCRIBE
Issue Open: September 17, 2010
IPO Note Issue close: September 21, 2010
Rationale for our Subscribe view
Iss u e D eta il s
Indian film industry poised for growth, EIML well placed to reap benefits:
According to FICCI-KPMG, the Indian film industry would post 9% CAGR during Face Value: Rs10
CY2009-14E. Eros International Media (EIML), which has an impressive movie Present Eq. Paid up Capital: Rs71.4r
pipeline for FY2011 and FY2012 with prominent superstars, catering to varied
genre and broad distribution reach is well placed to register strong revenues and Offer Size: 2.0cr-2.2cr Shares*
margins going ahead. Post Eq. Paid up Capital*: Rs91.4cr-Rs93.6cr
De-risked business model ensures revenue visibility: EIML sources content
Issue size (amount): Rs350cr
primarily through acquisitions and co-production agreements, which benefits it to
share risks, aids in building scale (as the company can work on more than one Price Band: Rs158-175
production simultaneously) and entails revenue visibility (EIML receives 50% share Promoters holding Pre-Issue: 100%
in the IPR of the film in exchange of film co-production, and in case of acquisition
only pays 35-50% of the film cost to the producer). Moreover, the company has a Promoters holding Post-Issue: 76% - 78%
diversified portfolio of over 1,000 films and has entered into a settlement No te:*at Upper and Lo wer price band respectively

agreement with the multiplexes for revenue-sharing on standardised basis.
Non-theatrical revenues through exploitation of library provides competitive edge: B o o k B u i l d in g
EIML monetises its contents from the library through television, DTH, video on
demand, IPTV, DVD and VCD. This augurs well for the company as it allows it to QIBs At least 50%
have a diversified revenue stream. The company’s strategy of releasing over 50 Non-Institutional At least 15%
new films including Hindi, Tamil and other regional language films with a mix of
Retail At least 35%
high, medium and low budget films would provide the opportunity to exploit the
portfolio through new film releases and acquisition of content.
Synergies with parent, Eros Plc: EIML has significant synergies with parent, Eros Po s t Iss u e Sh a reh o ld in g Pa ttern
Plc in terms of both revenues and distribution. Under the relationship agreement
Promoters Group 78.1%
with the Eros Group, EIML recovers ~40% of the cost of the film thereby freeing
MF/Banks/Indian
capital for further acquisitions and venturing into co-production activities. EIML
FIs/FIIs/Public & Others 21.9%
also benefits from Eros Group’s global distribution network as it is able to
simultaneously release its movies worldwide, resulting in strong earnings returns
in the first week of the release.
Outlook and Valuation: EIML has a proven track record of robust growth both on
the top-line and bottom–line fronts. Going forward, we estimate the company to
record revenue and earning CAGR of ~21% and ~29% respectively, over
FY2010-12E. At the upper price band of Rs175, EIML is available at 19.4x
FY2010 fully diluted EPS of Rs9, which we believe is reasonable given: 1) valuable
and diversified content library of over 1,000 titles, 2) de-risked business model -
co-productions and acquisition, 3) promising movie pipeline (including 8
big-budget Hindi language films), 4) proven execution skills (has successfully
Anand Shah
released Om Shanti Om, Love Aaj Kal, Karthik Calling Karthik, etc), and
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 334
5) derives synergistic advantages from parent Eros plc.
anand.shah@angeltrade.com
We have valued EIML at 9x EV/EBITDA and 25% discount to UTV Software, as it is
a pure play on movie production/distribution, while UTV Software is a diversified
Chitrangda Kapur
entertainment conglomerate. We have arrived at a fair value of Rs203, translating
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 323
into ~16% upside from the upper price band. We recommend a Subscribe view
to the IPO. chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Key risks to our recommendation: 1) Relative success of films at the box-office, 2)
Sreekanth P.V.S
Any delay in the release of a film, 3) Failure in effectively exploiting film content in
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 331
the international market, 4) High dependence on maintenance of IPR/piracy, and
5) Inexperience in movie production. sreekanth.s@angeltrade.com

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Eros International Media | IPO Note

Company Background
EIML is a subsidiary of Eros International Plc (AIM listed entity with ~£306mn
market capitalisation), which is a reputed brand name overseas on account of the
strong industry relationships developed over three decades. The company has an
extensive film library of over 1,000 titles and is in the business of sourcing
Indian/other film content and exploiting it worldwide through its offices in India,
UK, USA, UAE, Singapore, Australia, the Isle of Man and Fiji across formats such
as theatres, home entertainment, television and digital new media. One of the
market leaders in the Indian film industry, EIML releases 12-15 Hindi movies per
year and exclusively sources all Indian film content for the Eros Group and exploits
such content across formats within India, Nepal and Bhutan.

Exhibit 1: EIML - Business model

EIML

Sourcing Content End-End Distribution New Initiatives

International India

Through licensing
Existing Content New Content and syndication

TV
Media Library Acquisitions Home Entertainment
Music
Digital Distribution
Co-Production

Eros Plc. EyeQube Studio

Production

EMI tie up with Eros
Music

Source: RHP, Angel Research

Sourcing content: The company sources content primarily through acquisitions
from third parties and co-productions, and occasionally through own productions.
Only one own production to-date has been released, namely Aa Dekhen Zara, as
the company relies more on acquisitions and co-productions to source content.
EIML also has a co-production tie-up with Big Screen Entertainment in which it has
64% stake. Along with Hindi films, it also acquires regional language films mainly
Tamil, Marathi and Punjabi. EIML through its 100% subsidiary, Copsale, has
acquired 51% stake in Ayngaran International, which produces and distributes
Tamil films.

September 17, 2010 2


End-to-end distribution: The company exploits and distributes end-to-end Indian
film content within India, Nepal and Bhutan through multiple formats such as
theatres, home entertainment, principally by way of DVDs, VCDs and audio CDs,
and television syndication, which primarily involves licensing the broadcasting
rights to major satellite television broadcasting channels, cable television channels
and terrestrial television channels.

It also exploits and distributes content via digital new media such as mobile ring
tones, wallpapers and download, internet protocol television (IPTV), direct-to-home
(DTH) and other internet channels. Moreover, it licenses films to airlines for
in-flight viewing. The international rights for distribution of Indian film content for
the entire world excluding India, Nepal and Bhutan are licensed to the Eros
International Group in accordance with the terms of the Relationship Agreement
effective from October 1, 2009 between the company and its promoters, Eros
Worldwide and Eros plc. However, the Tamil language films are distributed
globally by Ayngaran and therefore arrangements for their distribution are not
governed by the relationship agreement.

New Initiatives: The company’s visual effects facility, EyeQube worked on three
films in 2009 (including Aladin, Drona and Madras Patnam) and also provided
production planning services.

The company has a 50:50 joint venture (JV) with Universal Music India, which
seeks to identify, nurture and manage new acting and/or singing talent and
provide them with film and music platforms to showcase their talent. The JV has
still to commence operations.

Eros Music UK, which has a strategic tie-up with EMI, has assigned rights for
administering and collecting the music publishing royalties for EMI‘s India
catalogues to Eros Music Publishing Private Limited.



Issue Details
EIML is making a Rs350cr IPO with a price band of Rs158-175/share, resulting in
a public issue of 2.0cr and 2.2cr equity shares with a face value Rs10, resulting in
promoter shareholding dilution of 22% and 24% at the upper and lower price
band, respectively. The company plans to use the IPO proceeds for acquiring and
co-producing Indian films, primarily Hindi language films as well as certain Tamil
and other regional language films. The company has already deployed ~Rs54cr
towards Hindi and Marathi film projects as on July 31, 2010. However, no funds
have been deployed for Tamil films.

Exhibit 2: Objects of the Issue
Particulars Amount (Rs cr)
Acquiring & co-production of movies 280.0
General Corporate Purpose 70.0
Total 350.0

Exhibit 3: Shareholding pattern (Pre and Post Issue)
Pre-Issue Post-Issue
Particulars No. of Shares % No. of Shares %
Promoter
Eros Digital Pvt. Ltd. 21,700,000 30.39 21,700,000 23.74
Eros Worldwide 49,700,000 69.60 49,700,000 54.37
Individuals 7,000 0.01 7,000 0.01
Arjan Lulla 1,400 1,400
Sunil Lulla 1,400 1,400
Krishika Lulla 1,400 1,400
Meena Lulla 1,400 1,400
Nitu Lulla 1,400 1,400
Public (at upper price band) - - 20,000,000 21.88
Total 71,407,000 100.00 91,407,000 100.00



Rationale for our Recommendation
Indian film industry poised for growth, EIML well placed to reap benefits

According to FICCI-KPMG report, the film industry which saw a decline of 14% yoy
in CY2009 largely on account of lower domestic theatrical collections is expected
to rebound and register 9% CAGR over CY2009-14E. Eros, which has already
released movies like Om Shanti Om, Devdaas, Paatshala, Karthik Calling Karthik,
Love Aaj Kal and boasts of an impressive movie pipeline for FY2011 and FY2012
including eight big-budget Hindi movies, 50 Tamil movies and two Marathi
movies, is in our opinion well placed to register strong revenues going forward.

Exhibit 4: Promising Bollywood movie pipeline for FY2011 and FY2012
Film Name Cast Production/Acquisition Genre Release#
Anjaana Anjani Ranbir Kapoor, Priyanka Chopra Co-production with Sajid Nadiadwala Romance FY2011
Golmaal 3 Ajay Devgan Acquisition from Shree Ashtavinayak Comedy FY2011
Toonpur Ka Superhero Ajay Devgan Co-production Family/Animation FY2011
RA One Shahrukh Khan Acquisition from Red Chillies Entertainment Family Entertainment FY2012
Agent Vinod Saif Ali Khan Co-production with Illuminati Films Action FY2012
Rockstar Ranbir Kapoor Acquisition Romance FY2012
Desi Boyz Akshay Kumar, John Abraham Co-production Youth FY2012
Mausam Shahid Kapoor, Sonam Kapur Co-production Romance FY2012
Source: RHP, Angel Research; Note: # Tentative release date

As is evident from the above list, Eros either through co-production or acquisition
has a strong movie pipeline with prominent superstars in varied genres thereby
reaching a wider audience base. Thus, aided by a broad distribution channel
probability of films succeeding is much higher, which could result in strong
revenues and margins for the company going ahead.

Co-production/acquisition entails revenue consistency

EIML works on the co-production and acquisition models. In the co-production
model, it secures the world-wide distribution rights for a specified period,
pre-determined production fees for co-production services and minimum 50%
share in the IPR of the film in exchange of film co-production. The company is also
entitled to an additional distribution commission of 10-20% of the investment. The
co-production model thus allows EIML to build scale (as it can work on more than
one production simultaneously), share risks and entails revenue visibility.

In the acquisition model, 35-50% of a film‘s cost is only payable when the film is
delivered by the producer near its release date, by which time EIML would usually
have already started the pre-sales process for that film. Thus, EIML benefits from
reigned in costs in its books.

Portfolio approach to business…

The company maintains a portfolio of movies, which further de-risks its business
model by ensuring less dependence on a particular language/genre of movies.
The company also focuses on product and regional diversification by ensuring
sizable regional movies in its portfolio.



Exhibit 5: By 1QFY2011 10 regional movies already released
Number of films released FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 1QFY2011
Hindi 23 20 13 4
Regional 1 1 5 1
Tamil 41 73 97 9
Total 65 94 115 14
Acquisition 62 85 100 13
Co-Production 3 6 12 1
Production - 3 3 -

…and settlement agreement with multiplexes to de-risk business

EIML has also entered into a settlement agreement (effective June 2009) governing
revenue sharing with the national multiplex operators on a standardised basis, as
compared to the film-by-film negotiated arrangements that prevailed earlier.

Exhibit 6: Aggregate net revenues received from multiplex operators
Period % of net box office receipt
1st week 50.0
2nd week 42.5
3rd week 37.5
4th week onwards 30.0

Non-theatrical revenues through exploitation of library provides
competitive edge

EIML has a diversified library of over 1,000 films, which gives it competitive edge
over competition as it tends to increase its non-theatrical revenues by monetising
this content through diverse platforms like television, DTH, video on demand, IPTV,
DVD and VCD. This augurs well as it allows the company to have a diversified
revenue stream. The company’s strategy of releasing over 50 new films including
Hindi, Tamil and other regional language films with a mix of high, medium and
low-budget films provides an opportunity to exploit the portfolio through new film
releases and acquisition of content.

Synergies with parent Eros plc

The company is a part of Eros plc, and derives significant synergies with its parent
in terms of both revenue and distribution. EIML entered into a relationship
agreement with Eros Worldwide effective October 1, 2009, wherein Eros
Worldwide has agreed to acquire exclusive distribution rights for the Indian films
(excluding Tamil films) for which EIML holds distribution rights outside India, Nepal
and Bhutan. Under this agreement EIML recovers ~40% of the cost of the film
thereby freeing capital for further acquisitions and venturing into co-production
activities. Further, in terms of distribution, Eros Group’s global distribution network
is a key advantage as EIML is able to offer global end-to-end distribution solution
to content partners or co-producers. This allows for a simultaneous worldwide
co-ordinated release of movies (either acquired or co-produced), resulting in
strong earnings returns in the first week of the release. Moreover, EIML owns
distribution offices in the key markets of Mumbai, Delhi and Punjab and through its
51% subsidiary, Ayngaran International, which has a strong foothold in distribution
of Tamil movies.



Outlook and Valuation
EIML has a proven track record of strong growth both on the top-line and
bottom–line fronts. During FY2006-10, the company posted revenue and earnings
CAGR of 58.3% and 155%, respectively. The company’s strategy of building and
augmenting its media library and extend its footprint into the regional language
film markets (Marathi, Punjabi, Telugu and Kannada) underpins our confidence on
its growth prospects. The company also intends to further explore and monetise
digital distribution opportunities riding on the experience of the Eros International
Group in international markets including opportunities in mobile, DTH, digital
cable and IPTV and consolidate its music catalogues to exploit growth from radio,
mobile, public performances and internet. Hence, going forward, we estimate the
company to record revenue and earnings CAGR of ~21% and ~29% respectively,
over FY2010-12.

At the upper price band of Rs175, EIML is available at 19.4x FY2010 fully diluted
EPS of Rs9, which we believe is reasonable given: 1) Valuable and diversified
content library of over 1,000 titles, 2) De-risked business model - works on
co-production and acquisition models, 3) Promising movie pipeline (including eight
big-budget Hindi language titles), 4) Proven execution skills (has successfully
released Om Shanti Om, Love Aaj Kal, Karthik Calling Karthik, etc), and
5) Derives synergistic advantages from parent, Eros plc.

Exhibit 7: Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 475 627 641 755 938
% chg 117.8 32.0 2.3 17.8 24.2
Net Profit 41.1 73.3 82.3 103.1 136.0
% chg 210.8 78.3 12.2 25.3 31.9
OPM (%) 11.6 18.2 17.3 19.7 20.6
FDEPS (Rs) 4.5 8.0 9.0 11.3 14.9
P/E (x) 38.9 21.8 19.4 15.5 11.8
P/BV (x) 19.6 10.1 6.7 2.3 1.9
RoE (%) 50.4 46.4 34.7 14.9 16.4
RoCE (%) 24.6 27.1 20.9 15.3 17.9
EV/Sales (x) 3.4 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 29.1 15.6 15.4 10.2 7.7
Source: RHP, Angel Research; Note: Valuation parameters stated at upper price band of Rs175

We have valued EIML at 9x EV/EBITDA and 25% discount to UTV software, as it is
a pure play on movie production/distribution, while UTV Software is a diversified
entertainment conglomerate. We have arrived at a fair value of Rs203, translating
into ~16% upside to the upper price band. We recommend a Subscribe view on
the Issue.

Key risks to our recommendation: 1) Relative success of a film at the box-office, 2)
Any delay in the release of a film, 3) Failure in effectively exploiting film content in
the international market, 4) High dependence on maintenance of IPR/piracy, and
5) Inexperience in movie production.



Exhibit 8: Peer Valuation
MCap P/E (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR % (FY10-12E)
Company
(Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Sales EBITDA
Domestic
Eros Int Media 1,600 15.5 11.8 14.9 16.4 10.2 7.7 21.0 31.8
UTV Software 2,247 19.1 13.0 9.3 11.8 16.3 11.7 45.8 131.8
International
Cineworld Group (£ mn) 287 11.9 10.8 27.6 NA 6.9 6.5 3.6 10.2
Walt Disney Co ($ mn) 65,354 16.4 14.3 11.6 11.2 8.7 7.8 5.9 12.4
Time Warner Inc ($ mn) 18,112 12.3 10.9 8.2 8.6 7.6 7.1 4.5 6.6
Viacom Inc ($ mn) 21,360 12.2 11.0 18.0 19.0 7.6 7.1 5.1 9.5
Source: RHP, Angel Research, Bloomberg consensus estimates



Annexure

Eros International Plc

Established in 1977, Eros has been a market leader since last three decades and
has created a global platform for Indian cinema. The Group has an enviable
distribution network that spans across 50 countries and 27 dubbed foreign
languages, with offices in India, UK, USA, Dubai, Australia, Fiji, Isle of Man and
Singapore. Eros has built a successful business model by combining the release of
a portfolio of over 70 new films every year by exploiting its valuable film library of
over 2,000 film titles, making it undisputedly one of the largest content owners in
the business.

Exhibit 9: Eros Plc Financials
($ mn) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010
Equity Capital (FV £0.1/share) 20.9 21.2 21.3
Reserve and Surplus (exceeding valuation reserve) 192.3 234.1 282.5
Sales/Turnover 113 156.7 149.7
PAT 39.5 40.8 42.4
EPS (US cents) 33.5 35.1 36.5

The company is promoted by Beech Investments (Isle of Man), which holds 68.8%
of the issued share capital of Eros plc. Arjan Lulla is the founder of the Eros Group.
Eros plc was incorporated as a limited company in the Isle of Man on March 31,
2006, under the Isle of Man Companies Act, 1931 and in July 2006 became the
first Indian media company to obtain listing on the Alternative Investment Market
(AIM) at the London Stock Exchange. The stock is currently trading at £2.6,
commanding a market cap of £306mn.

Exhibit 10: Snapshot of Eros Plc’s stock performance on AIM since listing

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research; Note Currency denoted in British pound (GBp)



Profit and Loss (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (Rs cr) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 1QFY2011
Net Sales 102 218 475 627 641 126
% chg - 113.5 117.8 32.0 2.3 -
Within India 21 88 301 243 264 64
Outside India 83 137 189 385 391 64
Other Income 2 7 18 8 18 3
Total Income 104 225 492 635 659 129
Operating Expenses 84 180 366 422 447 84
Amortization of Film 5 73 210 205 194 45
Purch. of Films/Serial 62 82 114 159 207 29
(Inc.)/Dec. in Inventories 3 1 (40) (22) 1 0
Others 14 24 83 80 45 10
Staff Costs 2 4 8 15 20 6
Selling & Dist Expenses 9 18 45 75 63 12
Total Expenditure 95 202 420 513 530 102
EBIDTA 7 16 55 114 111 24
(% of Net Sales) 7.0 7.4 11.6 18.2 17.3 19.1
Depreciation & Amortisation 1 1 2 5 4 1
Interest 5 6 5 13 13 3
PBT 3 17 66 104 112 23
(% of Net Sales) 3.1 7.8 13.9 16.6 17.5 18.2
Tax 1 3 23 29 29 8
(% of PBT) 39.3 20.2 35.3 28.0 26.2 36.7
Less: Minority Interest (MI) (0) 0 2 1 1 (1)
PAT (reported) 2 13 41 73 82 16
% chg - 579.9 210.8 78.3 12.2 -
(% of Net Sales) 1.9 6.1 8.7 11.7 12.8 12.3



Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (Rs cr) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 1QFY2011
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 5 5 5 5 71 71
Stock Options Outstanding - - - - 1 2
Reserves& Surplus 23 36 76 153 165 182
Shareholders Funds 28 41 82 158 237 256
Total Loans 89 69 124 212 218 236
Minority Interest 0 1 2 4 4 3
Deferred Tax Liability (net) (0) (1) 9 28 50 55
Total Liabilities 117 109 216 402 509 549
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 57 189 466 772 1,005 1,066
Less: Acc. Depreciation 44 117 324 553 733 783
Net Block 13 72 142 219 272 282
Capital Work-in-Progress - - - - 0 1
Investments - 4 6 8 8 8
Current Assets 134 290 657 893 725 736
Inventories 4 17 70 98 41 41
Sundry Debtors 75 77 105 159 130 158
Cash and Bank 13 33 118 36 107 41
Loans and Advances 42 163 365 601 447 497
Current Liabilities & Prov 30 257 589 719 496 478
Current liabilities 28 253 586 715 486 465
Provisions 2 4 2 4 11 12
Net Current Assets 104 33 69 174 229 258
Total Assets 117 109 216 402 509 549



Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com

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Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
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