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4QFY2010 Result Update I Real Estate

                                                                                                                           May 17, 2010




  DLF                                                                                   NEUTRAL
                                                                                        CMP                                        Rs287
  Performance Highlights                                                                Target Price                                   -
  DLF reported 4QFY2010 results that were marginally below our expectations,            Investment Period                               -
  on account of higher interest and tax expenses. The DAL/Caraf merger and
  purchase of Compulsorily Convertible Preference shares (CCPS), which were             Stock Info
  earlier issued by DAL to SC Asia (to the tune of Rs3,085cr), are set to increase
                                                                                        Sector                                 Real Estate
  the net debt level to 0.65-0.75x in 1QFY2011 from the current level of 0.53x.
  The monetising from non-core assets was Rs1,800cr (much below initial                 Market Cap (Rs cr)                        48,707
  guidance) in FY2010, of which Rs566cr was reported in 4Q. The
                                                                                        Beta                                          1.8
  management has given strong sales volume guidance of 15-18mn sq ft in
  FY2011E. We believe that the stock’s performance hinges on recovery in the            52 WK High / Low                        491/259
  commercial segment, non-core assets sales and successful new launches,
  which can hive off the high debt level. We recommend a Neutral on the stock.          Avg. Daily Volume                       3207926

                                                                                        Face Value (Rs)                                 2
  Strong growth, albeit on low base: Revenues for 4QFY2010 grew by 77.7%
  yoy to Rs1,994cr, driven by an improvement in volumes and pricing in the              BSE Sensex                                16,836
  residential segment, albeit on a low base; however, they declined by 1.6%             Nifty                                      5,060
  qoq. Operating margins came in at 50.1%, higher by 851bp qoq and
  3,637bp yoy, on account of revenue recognition from the Shivaji Road project          Reuters Code                            DLFL.BO
  in Delhi, where margins were in the mid-40s. Interest costs grew by 93.6% yoy
                                                                                        Bloomberg Code                          DLFU@IN
  to Rs315cr, as a result of increased leverage due to the DLF-DAL integration.
  The tax rate stood at 31.8% in 4QFY2010 (against 0% in 4QFY2009 and                   Shareholding Pattern (%)
  26.6% in 3QFY2010). Consequently, the reported PAT came in at Rs426cr, up
  by 168% yoy but down by 8.9% qoq.                                                     Promoters                                   78.6

                                                                                        MF/Banks/Indian FIs                           2.3
  Outlook and Valuation: We estimate DLF to sell 16.4mn sq ft in FY2011E, of            FII/NRIs/OCBs                               14.9
  which 13mn sq ft is from the residential segment. In our view, there is a
  limited upside to our launch estimates, considering the steep price rise in           Indian Public                                 4.2
  recent months. We have assumed a 5% reduction in commercial and retail                Abs. (%)            3m           1yr          3yr
  prices, but a 5% rise in residential prices, from current level, in FY2011E. DLF
  has underperformed the Sensex over the last six months, on concerns of a              Sensex              2.5          38.3        22.0
  weak operating cash flow and increasing gearing levels. The stock is trading
  at a 4% discount to our 1-year forward NAV of Rs298. Hence, we recommend              DLF               (6.1)          11.2       (49.7)*
  a Neutral on the stock.
                                                                                        *Since listing on July 5, 2007


   Key Financials (Consolidated)
   Y/E March (Rs cr)               FY2009         FY2010E         FY2011E   FY2012E
   Net Sales                         10,035          7,421          9,668    14,413
   % chg                              (30.5)         (26.1)          30.3      49.1
   Net Profit                         4,470          1,730          2,338     4,049
   % chg                              (42.8)         (61.3)          35.1      73.2
   EBITDA Margin (%)                   55.8            47.2          46.6      50.4
   FDEPS (Rs)                          26.2            10.2          13.8      23.9
   P/E (x)                             10.9            28.2          20.8      12.0
   P/BV (x)                             2.0             1.6           1.5       1.3
   RoE (%)                             19.9             6.2           7.2      11.5
   RoCE (%)                            14.6             6.7           7.4      11.7
                                                                                      Param Desai
   EV/Sales (x)                         6.4             9.4           7.1       4.8
                                                                                      Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 310
   EV/EBITDA (x)                       11.4            19.8          15.2       9.4
                                                                                      E-mail: paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
   Source: Company, Angel Research



                                                                                                                                            1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                          Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update


                   Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance (Consolidated)
                   (Rs cr)                                        3QFY10      4QFY09          4QFY10           %yoy    %qoq
                   Revenues                                          2,026          1,122       1,994          77.7     (1.6)
                   Total expenditure                                 1,183           968            994         2.8    (15.9)
                   EBIDTA                                             843            155        1,000         546.9     18.6
                   EBIDTA margin (%)                                  41.6           13.8           50.1   3,637bp     851bp
                   Depreciation                                        80              52            95        83.4     18.4
                   Interest                                           257            163            315        93.6     22.5
                   Other income                                       126            229            152       (33.8)    20.4
                   PBT                                                633            170            742       337.9     17.4
                   Tax                                                168              (0)          236                 40.3
                   Tax rate (%)                                       26.6           (0.1)          31.8
                   Share of ass / Minority Int/ EO                      4            (11)           (80)
                   Adj PAT                                            464            170            506       198.3      9.1
                   PAT margin (%)                                     22.9           15.1           25.4     1026bp    247bp
                   Reported PAT                                       468            159            426       168.1     (8.9)
                   Reported EPS (Rs)                                   2.8            0.9            2.5
               Source: Company, Angel Research


               Deleveraging holds the key for the stock’s performance

               The DAL/Caraf merger and purchase of Compulsorily Convertible Preference shares
               (CCPS), which were earlier issued by DAL to SC Asia (to the tune of Rs3,085cr), are
               set to increase the net debt level to 0.65-0.75x from the current level of 0.53x. This
               will result in gross debt of ~Rs24,000cr by the end of 1QFY2011E. DLF repaid
               Rs5,600cr debt in FY2010, against the mandatory debt payable of Rs3,550cr. Debt
               repayments due in FY2011E are Rs26bn. DLF is targeting to reduce its net
               debt/equity to 0.4-0.5x by the end of FY2011E. The reduction in the gearing level
               will depend on hiving off non-core assets, successfully new launches, like the
               Mumbai NTC mill, and a recovery in the commercial leasing segment.

               Exhibit 2: Integration with DAL/Caraf led to higher Debt

                             17,000            0.58                                                                    0.60

                                                                                             0.48     0.53
                             15,000
                                                           0.48              0.49                                      0.50
                             13,000
                   (Rs cr)




                                                                                                                              (x)


                             11,000                                                                                    0.40

                              9,000
                                                                                                                       0.30
                              7,000

                              5,000                                                                                    0.20
                                      4QFY09          1QFY10          2QFY10         3QFY10                4QFY10
                                                          Net Debt        Net Debt: Equity
               Source: Company, Angel Research
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
May 17, 2010                                                                                                                  2
 
                                                                    DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update
                
                
               Update on Non-core assets

               The monetising from non-core assets was Rs1800cr (much below the initial guidance
               of Rs5,500cr in FY2010), of which Rs566cr was reported in 4Q. The management
               has decided to retain its wind business, as it is getting 15% post-tax returns on these
               assets. In FY2011E, the management has earmarked Rs2,700cr from the sale of
               non-core assets, largely from Dwarka (Rs800cr) and TIDCO (Rs900cr).

               Expects commercial demand to pick up over the next 12 months

               DLF’s non-residential segment accounts for 55% of our GNAV. After the sharp
               decline in the past few quarters, capital values have started to strengthen and have
               registered marginal appreciation across most micro markets in the NCR. Industry
               participants have indicated that the surge in leasing enquiries has come on the back
               of a renewed interest from corporates. Recovery in the Commercial and Retail
               Segments generally lag a recovery in the economy. Accordingly, we believe that
               demand in office space will start picking up from 2HFY2011E onwards. Cushman
               and Wakefield estimates pan-India cumulative demand for office space during
               CY2009-13E to be 196mn sq ft. We expect a net employee addition of 15% in the
               IT/ITES sector over FY2010-12E.

               Rental visibility to improve after the merger of DLF-DAL/Caraf

               DLF reported ~Rs750cr of rental income in FY2010. After the merger of DLF and
               DAL/Caraf, the company has 19mn sq ft of rent-yielding assets, which will generate
               Rs1,500-1,600cr of rental income in FY2011E. The company expects to list DAL by
               the end of FY2011E, which can be value accretive for DLF shareholders at the lower
               cap rate. However, this will depend on a recovery in the commercial leasing
               segment.

               Execution gradually picking up

               DLF has 56 mn sq ft of projects under execution as of 4QFY2010 (compared to
               51mn sq ft as of 3QFY2010), as it added 5.4mn sq ft comprising of homes and
               commercial complexes in Capital Greens (2mn sq ft), SIEL (0.5mn sq ft) and 2.8mn
               sq ft in Bangalore.

               Exhibit 3: Projects under construction

                               60
                                                                                            56
                               55
                                                                            51
                                                             49
                               50
                   (mn sqft)




                               45
                                                   42

                               40
                                      36
                               35

                               30

                               25
                                    4QFY09       1QFY10   2QFY10          3QFY10         4QFY10

               Source: Company, Angel Research




May 17, 2010                                                                                        3
DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Outlook and Valuation
               DLF has a challenging task in FY2011E to bring down its gearing levels, for getting
               fast approvals in order to have successful new launches and for monetizing its non-
               core assets at a reasonable value. We estimate DLF to sell 16.4mn sq ft in FY2011E,
               of which 13mn sq ft is from the residential segment. In our view, there is a limited
               upside to our launch estimates, considering the steep price rise in recent months. We
               have assumed a 5% reduction in commercial and retail prices, but a 5% rise in
               residential prices, from the current level, in FY2011E. DLF has underperformed the
               Sensex over the last six months, on concerns of a weak operating cash flow and
               increasing gearing levels. The stock is trading at a 4% discount to our 1-year
               forward NAV of 298. Hence, we recommend a Neutral on the stock.

               Exhibit 4: Sales assumptions
                           25.0
                                                                                          22.6
                                  21.8

                           20.0
                                                                           16.4

                           15.0
               (mn sqft)




                                                 12.4       12.5

                           10.0


                            5.0


                            0.0
                                  FY08           FY09      FY10           FY11E          FY12E

               Source: Company, Angel Research




May 17, 2010                                                                                      4
DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)                                                     (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                             FY2007    FY2008    FY2009    FY2010E    FY2011E    FY2012E
                Net Sales                              2,637    14,437    10,035      7,421      9,668     14,413
                Other operating income                      -         -         -          -          -             -
                Total operating income                 2,637    14,437    10,035      7,421      9,668     14,413
                % chg                                  226.4     447.4     (30.5)     (26.1)      30.3        49.1
                Total Expenditure                      1,120     4,722     4,438      3,920      5,159       7,150
                Const. costs incl land costs            632      3,785     2,859      2,074      3,374       4,794
                Other expenditure                       396        638     1,125      1,376      1,049       1,369
                Personnel                                 92       300       454        469        736         987
                EBITDA                                 1,518     9,715     5,597      3,501      4,509       7,264
                % chg                                  219.0     540.2     (42.4)     (37.4)      28.8        61.1
                (% of Net Sales)                        57.5      67.3      55.8       47.2       46.6        50.4
                Depreciation& Amortisation                57        90      239        325        463          576
                EBIT                                   1,460     9,625     5,358      3,177      4,046       6,688
                % chg                                  232.2     559.0     (44.3)     (40.7)      27.4        65.3
                (% of Net Sales)                        55.4      66.7      53.4       42.8       41.9        46.4
                Interest & other Charges                308        310       555      1,108      1,311       1,431
                Other Income                           1,416       246       396        433        415         394
                (% of PBT)                              55.1       2.6       7.6       17.3       13.2          7.0
                Recurring PBT                          2,569     9,561     5,200      2,502      3,150       5,651
                % chg                                  614.5     272.2     (45.6)     (51.9)      25.9        79.4
                Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)                -         -         -          -          -             -
                PBT (reported)                         2,569     9,561     5,200      2,502      3,150       5,651
                Tax                                     606      1,739       681        696        787       1,582
                (% of PBT)                              23.6      18.2      13.1       27.8       25.0        28.0
                PAT (reported)                         1,963     7,822     4,518      1,807      2,362       4,069
                Add: Share of earnings of associate     (1.3)     26.4     (21.1)       0.5        0.5          5.5
                Less: Minority interest (MI)            (1.1)    (35.5)    (27.5)       9.8      (25.0)      (25.0)
                Prior period items                          -     (1.2)         -     (87.0)          -             -
                PAT after MI (reported)                1,961     7,812     4,470      1,730      2,338       4,049
                ADJ. PAT                               1,963     7,822     4,518      1,807      2,362       4,069
                % chg                                  922.7     298.5     (42.8)     (61.3)      35.1        73.2
                (% of Net Sales)                        74.3      54.1      44.5       23.3       24.2        28.1
                Basic EPS (Rs)                          12.8      45.8      26.2       10.2       13.8        23.9
                Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)                  11.6      46.0      26.3       10.2       13.8        23.9
                % chg                                   26.3     298.5     (42.8)     (61.3)      35.1        73.2




May 17, 2010                                                                                                        5
DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Balance Sheet (Consolidated)                                                                          (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                                FY2007           FY2008     FY2009    FY2010E    FY2011E    FY2012E
                SOURCES OF FUNDS
                Equity Share Capital*                      1,256            1,291     1,735      6,259      6,259      6,259
                Preference Capital                                    -          -         -          -          -             -
                Reserves& Surplus                          2,712           18,398    22,419     24,513     26,464     30,126
                Shareholders Funds                         3,967           19,688    24,154     30,772     32,723     36,385
                Minority Interest                                 9           389       634        629        654         679
                Total Loans                                9,933           12,277    16,320     21,677     21,677     21,677
                Deferred Tax Liability                           19            36       (41)       262        262         262
                Total Liabilities                         13,928           32,391    41,067     53,340     55,316     59,003
                APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                Gross Block                                1,779            5,163     8,487     17,874     19,133     22,780
                Less: Acc. Depreciation                        241            343       574      1,326      1,789      2,365
                Net Block                                  1,538            4,819     7,913     16,548     17,344     20,416
                Capital Work-in-Progress                   2,650            5,184     5,688     11,182     12,859     14,145
                Goodwill                                       894          2,093     2,265      1,267      1,267      1,267
                Investments                                    211            910     1,402      5,520      5,520      5,520
                Current Assets                            12,879           26,600    31,623     28,074     27,996     29,104
                Cash                                           416          2,142     1,196        913      1,695      1,912
                Loans & Advances                           5,237            7,369     9,712      8,600      6,880      6,192
                Other                                      7,227           17,089    20,715     18,561     19,421     21,000
                Current liabilities & Provisions           4,243            7,216     7,824      9,251      9,671     11,449
                Net Current Assets                         8,637           19,384    23,799     18,823     18,325     17,655
                Mis. Exp. not written off                             -          -         -          -          -             -
                Total Assets                              13,928           32,391    41,067     53,340     55,316     59,003
               Note: * Includes redeemable preference shares

               Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)                                                                      (Rs cr)
                Y/E March                               FY2007            FY2008     FY2009    FY2010E    FY2011E    FY2012E
                Profit before tax                         2,540             9,559     5,200      2,486      3,150      5,651
                Depreciation                                   58              90       239        326        463        576
                Change in Working Capital                (7,481)          (10,581)   (3,862)     5,779      1,280        887
                Less: Other Adjustments                  (1,077)              157       348        921      1,311      1,431
                Direct taxes paid                          (603)           (1,821)   (1,112)      (908)     (787)     (1,582)
                Cash Flow from Operations                (6,563)           (2,597)      813      8,604      5,416      6,963
                (Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets              (1,096)           (4,768)   (3,822)   (14,401)    (2,936)    (4,933)
                (Inc.)/Dec in Investments                 1,243            (1,442)    (444)     (2,073)          -             -
                Interest received                              89             195       103        193           -             -
                Other                                             -              -         -          -         1              6
                Cash Flow from Investing                       236         (6,014)   (4,163)   (16,281)    (2,936)    (4,928)
                Issue of Equity                                950          9,196       304      4,524           -             -
                Inc./(Dec.) in loans                      5,801             2,318     4,113      5,405           -             -
                Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)                       (2)          (798)    (372)       (385)     (387)       (387)
                Interest Paid                              (290)             (279)   (1,667)    (2,151)    (1,311)    (1,431)
                Cash Flow from Financing                  6,459            10,437     2,378      7,393     (1,699)    (1,818)
                Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                            132          1,826     (972)       (284)       782        217
                Opening Cash balances                          283            316     2,168      1,096        913      1,695
                Closing Cash balances                          416          2,142     1,196        812      1,695      1,912




May 17, 2010                                                                                                                   6
DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update



               Key Ratios
                Y/E March                             FY2007   FY2008   FY2009   FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
                Valuation Ratio (x)
                P/E (on FDEPS)                          22.4      6.3     10.9      28.2      20.8      12.0
                P/CEPS                                  21.8      6.2     10.4      23.7      17.4      10.5
                P/BV                                    12.3      2.5      2.0       1.6       1.5       1.3
                Dividend yield (%)                         -      1.4      0.7       0.7       0.7       0.7
                EV/Sales                                22.1      4.1      6.4       9.4       7.1       4.8
                EV/EBITDA                               38.4      6.1     11.4      19.8      15.2       9.4
                EV / Total Assets                        4.2      1.8      1.6       1.3       1.2       1.2
                Per Share Data (Rs)
                EPS (Basic)                             12.8     45.8     26.2      10.2      13.8      23.9
                EPS (fully diluted)                     11.6     46.0     26.3      10.2      13.8      23.9
                Cash EPS                                13.2     46.4     27.6      12.1      16.5      27.3
                DPS                                        -      4.0      2.0       2.0       2.0       2.0
                Book Value                              23.4    116.0    142.3     181.3     192.8     214.4
                Dupont Analysis
                EBIT margin                             55.4     66.7     53.4      42.8      41.9      46.4
                Tax retention ratio                      0.8      0.8      0.9       0.7       0.8       0.7
                Asset turnover (x)                       0.3      0.7      0.3       0.2       0.2       0.3
                ROIC (Post-tax)                         12.1     36.0     13.3       5.0       5.7       8.7
                Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                  6.7      2.3      3.4       4.2       4.5       4.8
                Leverage (x)                             1.3      0.8      0.6       0.6       0.6       0.6
                Operating ROE                           19.2     63.5     18.9       5.5       6.5      10.9
                Returns (%)
                ROCE (Pre-tax)                          19.6     41.6     14.6       6.7       7.4      11.7
                Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)                    21.7     58.4     19.5       8.8      10.2      16.5
                ROE                                     79.5     65.0     19.9       6.2       7.2      11.5
                Turnover ratios (x)
                Asset Turnover (Gross Block)             1.7      4.2      1.5       0.6       0.5       0.7
                Inventory / Sales (days)               508.0    191.6    370.7     574.0     505.2     377.3
                Receivables (days)                     150.7    115.4    177.8      94.2      67.9      61.0
                Payables (days)                        791.1    294.1    345.6     447.2     401.6     345.9
                Working cap cycle (ex-cash) (days)     673.9    321.9    724.6     996.3     652.0     409.9
                Solvency ratios (x)
                Net debt to equity                       2.4      0.5      0.6       0.5       0.6       0.5
                Net debt to EBITDA                       6.3      1.0      2.7       5.9       4.4       2.7
                Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)      4.7     31.0      9.7       2.9       3.1       4.7




May 17, 2010                                                                                              7
DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update




Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800                                          E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                       Website: www.angeltrade.com


DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved),
and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true,
and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly,
we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel
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use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                                                   DLF
 1.    Analyst ownership of the stock                                                                               No
 2.    Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                                                         Yes
 3.    Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock                                              No
 4.    Broking relationship with company covered                                                                    No
 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.




                                Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                                    Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800



    Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
    INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
    Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
    CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302



May 17, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                8

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Dlf ru4 qfy2010-17052010

  • 1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I Real Estate May 17, 2010 DLF NEUTRAL CMP Rs287 Performance Highlights Target Price - DLF reported 4QFY2010 results that were marginally below our expectations, Investment Period - on account of higher interest and tax expenses. The DAL/Caraf merger and purchase of Compulsorily Convertible Preference shares (CCPS), which were Stock Info earlier issued by DAL to SC Asia (to the tune of Rs3,085cr), are set to increase Sector Real Estate the net debt level to 0.65-0.75x in 1QFY2011 from the current level of 0.53x. The monetising from non-core assets was Rs1,800cr (much below initial Market Cap (Rs cr) 48,707 guidance) in FY2010, of which Rs566cr was reported in 4Q. The Beta 1.8 management has given strong sales volume guidance of 15-18mn sq ft in FY2011E. We believe that the stock’s performance hinges on recovery in the 52 WK High / Low 491/259 commercial segment, non-core assets sales and successful new launches, which can hive off the high debt level. We recommend a Neutral on the stock. Avg. Daily Volume 3207926 Face Value (Rs) 2 Strong growth, albeit on low base: Revenues for 4QFY2010 grew by 77.7% yoy to Rs1,994cr, driven by an improvement in volumes and pricing in the BSE Sensex 16,836 residential segment, albeit on a low base; however, they declined by 1.6% Nifty 5,060 qoq. Operating margins came in at 50.1%, higher by 851bp qoq and 3,637bp yoy, on account of revenue recognition from the Shivaji Road project Reuters Code DLFL.BO in Delhi, where margins were in the mid-40s. Interest costs grew by 93.6% yoy Bloomberg Code DLFU@IN to Rs315cr, as a result of increased leverage due to the DLF-DAL integration. The tax rate stood at 31.8% in 4QFY2010 (against 0% in 4QFY2009 and Shareholding Pattern (%) 26.6% in 3QFY2010). Consequently, the reported PAT came in at Rs426cr, up by 168% yoy but down by 8.9% qoq. Promoters 78.6 MF/Banks/Indian FIs 2.3 Outlook and Valuation: We estimate DLF to sell 16.4mn sq ft in FY2011E, of FII/NRIs/OCBs 14.9 which 13mn sq ft is from the residential segment. In our view, there is a limited upside to our launch estimates, considering the steep price rise in Indian Public 4.2 recent months. We have assumed a 5% reduction in commercial and retail Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr prices, but a 5% rise in residential prices, from current level, in FY2011E. DLF has underperformed the Sensex over the last six months, on concerns of a Sensex 2.5 38.3 22.0 weak operating cash flow and increasing gearing levels. The stock is trading at a 4% discount to our 1-year forward NAV of Rs298. Hence, we recommend DLF (6.1) 11.2 (49.7)* a Neutral on the stock. *Since listing on July 5, 2007 Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 10,035 7,421 9,668 14,413 % chg (30.5) (26.1) 30.3 49.1 Net Profit 4,470 1,730 2,338 4,049 % chg (42.8) (61.3) 35.1 73.2 EBITDA Margin (%) 55.8 47.2 46.6 50.4 FDEPS (Rs) 26.2 10.2 13.8 23.9 P/E (x) 10.9 28.2 20.8 12.0 P/BV (x) 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 RoE (%) 19.9 6.2 7.2 11.5 RoCE (%) 14.6 6.7 7.4 11.7 Param Desai EV/Sales (x) 6.4 9.4 7.1 4.8 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 310 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.4 19.8 15.2 9.4 E-mail: paramv.desai@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research 1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2. DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance (Consolidated) (Rs cr) 3QFY10 4QFY09 4QFY10 %yoy %qoq Revenues 2,026 1,122 1,994 77.7 (1.6) Total expenditure 1,183 968 994 2.8 (15.9) EBIDTA 843 155 1,000 546.9 18.6 EBIDTA margin (%) 41.6 13.8 50.1 3,637bp 851bp Depreciation 80 52 95 83.4 18.4 Interest 257 163 315 93.6 22.5 Other income 126 229 152 (33.8) 20.4 PBT 633 170 742 337.9 17.4 Tax 168 (0) 236 40.3 Tax rate (%) 26.6 (0.1) 31.8 Share of ass / Minority Int/ EO 4 (11) (80) Adj PAT 464 170 506 198.3 9.1 PAT margin (%) 22.9 15.1 25.4 1026bp 247bp Reported PAT 468 159 426 168.1 (8.9) Reported EPS (Rs) 2.8 0.9 2.5 Source: Company, Angel Research Deleveraging holds the key for the stock’s performance The DAL/Caraf merger and purchase of Compulsorily Convertible Preference shares (CCPS), which were earlier issued by DAL to SC Asia (to the tune of Rs3,085cr), are set to increase the net debt level to 0.65-0.75x from the current level of 0.53x. This will result in gross debt of ~Rs24,000cr by the end of 1QFY2011E. DLF repaid Rs5,600cr debt in FY2010, against the mandatory debt payable of Rs3,550cr. Debt repayments due in FY2011E are Rs26bn. DLF is targeting to reduce its net debt/equity to 0.4-0.5x by the end of FY2011E. The reduction in the gearing level will depend on hiving off non-core assets, successfully new launches, like the Mumbai NTC mill, and a recovery in the commercial leasing segment. Exhibit 2: Integration with DAL/Caraf led to higher Debt 17,000 0.58 0.60 0.48 0.53 15,000 0.48 0.49 0.50 13,000 (Rs cr) (x) 11,000 0.40 9,000 0.30 7,000 5,000 0.20 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 Net Debt Net Debt: Equity Source: Company, Angel Research                 May 17, 2010   2
  • 3.     DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update     Update on Non-core assets The monetising from non-core assets was Rs1800cr (much below the initial guidance of Rs5,500cr in FY2010), of which Rs566cr was reported in 4Q. The management has decided to retain its wind business, as it is getting 15% post-tax returns on these assets. In FY2011E, the management has earmarked Rs2,700cr from the sale of non-core assets, largely from Dwarka (Rs800cr) and TIDCO (Rs900cr). Expects commercial demand to pick up over the next 12 months DLF’s non-residential segment accounts for 55% of our GNAV. After the sharp decline in the past few quarters, capital values have started to strengthen and have registered marginal appreciation across most micro markets in the NCR. Industry participants have indicated that the surge in leasing enquiries has come on the back of a renewed interest from corporates. Recovery in the Commercial and Retail Segments generally lag a recovery in the economy. Accordingly, we believe that demand in office space will start picking up from 2HFY2011E onwards. Cushman and Wakefield estimates pan-India cumulative demand for office space during CY2009-13E to be 196mn sq ft. We expect a net employee addition of 15% in the IT/ITES sector over FY2010-12E. Rental visibility to improve after the merger of DLF-DAL/Caraf DLF reported ~Rs750cr of rental income in FY2010. After the merger of DLF and DAL/Caraf, the company has 19mn sq ft of rent-yielding assets, which will generate Rs1,500-1,600cr of rental income in FY2011E. The company expects to list DAL by the end of FY2011E, which can be value accretive for DLF shareholders at the lower cap rate. However, this will depend on a recovery in the commercial leasing segment. Execution gradually picking up DLF has 56 mn sq ft of projects under execution as of 4QFY2010 (compared to 51mn sq ft as of 3QFY2010), as it added 5.4mn sq ft comprising of homes and commercial complexes in Capital Greens (2mn sq ft), SIEL (0.5mn sq ft) and 2.8mn sq ft in Bangalore. Exhibit 3: Projects under construction 60 56 55 51 49 50 (mn sqft) 45 42 40 36 35 30 25 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 Source: Company, Angel Research May 17, 2010 3
  • 4. DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update Outlook and Valuation DLF has a challenging task in FY2011E to bring down its gearing levels, for getting fast approvals in order to have successful new launches and for monetizing its non- core assets at a reasonable value. We estimate DLF to sell 16.4mn sq ft in FY2011E, of which 13mn sq ft is from the residential segment. In our view, there is a limited upside to our launch estimates, considering the steep price rise in recent months. We have assumed a 5% reduction in commercial and retail prices, but a 5% rise in residential prices, from the current level, in FY2011E. DLF has underperformed the Sensex over the last six months, on concerns of a weak operating cash flow and increasing gearing levels. The stock is trading at a 4% discount to our 1-year forward NAV of 298. Hence, we recommend a Neutral on the stock. Exhibit 4: Sales assumptions 25.0 22.6 21.8 20.0 16.4 15.0 (mn sqft) 12.4 12.5 10.0 5.0 0.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Source: Company, Angel Research May 17, 2010 4
  • 5. DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 2,637 14,437 10,035 7,421 9,668 14,413 Other operating income - - - - - - Total operating income 2,637 14,437 10,035 7,421 9,668 14,413 % chg 226.4 447.4 (30.5) (26.1) 30.3 49.1 Total Expenditure 1,120 4,722 4,438 3,920 5,159 7,150 Const. costs incl land costs 632 3,785 2,859 2,074 3,374 4,794 Other expenditure 396 638 1,125 1,376 1,049 1,369 Personnel 92 300 454 469 736 987 EBITDA 1,518 9,715 5,597 3,501 4,509 7,264 % chg 219.0 540.2 (42.4) (37.4) 28.8 61.1 (% of Net Sales) 57.5 67.3 55.8 47.2 46.6 50.4 Depreciation& Amortisation 57 90 239 325 463 576 EBIT 1,460 9,625 5,358 3,177 4,046 6,688 % chg 232.2 559.0 (44.3) (40.7) 27.4 65.3 (% of Net Sales) 55.4 66.7 53.4 42.8 41.9 46.4 Interest & other Charges 308 310 555 1,108 1,311 1,431 Other Income 1,416 246 396 433 415 394 (% of PBT) 55.1 2.6 7.6 17.3 13.2 7.0 Recurring PBT 2,569 9,561 5,200 2,502 3,150 5,651 % chg 614.5 272.2 (45.6) (51.9) 25.9 79.4 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - - PBT (reported) 2,569 9,561 5,200 2,502 3,150 5,651 Tax 606 1,739 681 696 787 1,582 (% of PBT) 23.6 18.2 13.1 27.8 25.0 28.0 PAT (reported) 1,963 7,822 4,518 1,807 2,362 4,069 Add: Share of earnings of associate (1.3) 26.4 (21.1) 0.5 0.5 5.5 Less: Minority interest (MI) (1.1) (35.5) (27.5) 9.8 (25.0) (25.0) Prior period items - (1.2) - (87.0) - - PAT after MI (reported) 1,961 7,812 4,470 1,730 2,338 4,049 ADJ. PAT 1,963 7,822 4,518 1,807 2,362 4,069 % chg 922.7 298.5 (42.8) (61.3) 35.1 73.2 (% of Net Sales) 74.3 54.1 44.5 23.3 24.2 28.1 Basic EPS (Rs) 12.8 45.8 26.2 10.2 13.8 23.9 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 11.6 46.0 26.3 10.2 13.8 23.9 % chg 26.3 298.5 (42.8) (61.3) 35.1 73.2 May 17, 2010 5
  • 6. DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update Balance Sheet (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital* 1,256 1,291 1,735 6,259 6,259 6,259 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 2,712 18,398 22,419 24,513 26,464 30,126 Shareholders Funds 3,967 19,688 24,154 30,772 32,723 36,385 Minority Interest 9 389 634 629 654 679 Total Loans 9,933 12,277 16,320 21,677 21,677 21,677 Deferred Tax Liability 19 36 (41) 262 262 262 Total Liabilities 13,928 32,391 41,067 53,340 55,316 59,003 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 1,779 5,163 8,487 17,874 19,133 22,780 Less: Acc. Depreciation 241 343 574 1,326 1,789 2,365 Net Block 1,538 4,819 7,913 16,548 17,344 20,416 Capital Work-in-Progress 2,650 5,184 5,688 11,182 12,859 14,145 Goodwill 894 2,093 2,265 1,267 1,267 1,267 Investments 211 910 1,402 5,520 5,520 5,520 Current Assets 12,879 26,600 31,623 28,074 27,996 29,104 Cash 416 2,142 1,196 913 1,695 1,912 Loans & Advances 5,237 7,369 9,712 8,600 6,880 6,192 Other 7,227 17,089 20,715 18,561 19,421 21,000 Current liabilities & Provisions 4,243 7,216 7,824 9,251 9,671 11,449 Net Current Assets 8,637 19,384 23,799 18,823 18,325 17,655 Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - - Total Assets 13,928 32,391 41,067 53,340 55,316 59,003 Note: * Includes redeemable preference shares Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 2,540 9,559 5,200 2,486 3,150 5,651 Depreciation 58 90 239 326 463 576 Change in Working Capital (7,481) (10,581) (3,862) 5,779 1,280 887 Less: Other Adjustments (1,077) 157 348 921 1,311 1,431 Direct taxes paid (603) (1,821) (1,112) (908) (787) (1,582) Cash Flow from Operations (6,563) (2,597) 813 8,604 5,416 6,963 (Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (1,096) (4,768) (3,822) (14,401) (2,936) (4,933) (Inc.)/Dec in Investments 1,243 (1,442) (444) (2,073) - - Interest received 89 195 103 193 - - Other - - - - 1 6 Cash Flow from Investing 236 (6,014) (4,163) (16,281) (2,936) (4,928) Issue of Equity 950 9,196 304 4,524 - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 5,801 2,318 4,113 5,405 - - Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (2) (798) (372) (385) (387) (387) Interest Paid (290) (279) (1,667) (2,151) (1,311) (1,431) Cash Flow from Financing 6,459 10,437 2,378 7,393 (1,699) (1,818) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 132 1,826 (972) (284) 782 217 Opening Cash balances 283 316 2,168 1,096 913 1,695 Closing Cash balances 416 2,142 1,196 812 1,695 1,912 May 17, 2010 6
  • 7. DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 22.4 6.3 10.9 28.2 20.8 12.0 P/CEPS 21.8 6.2 10.4 23.7 17.4 10.5 P/BV 12.3 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 Dividend yield (%) - 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 EV/Sales 22.1 4.1 6.4 9.4 7.1 4.8 EV/EBITDA 38.4 6.1 11.4 19.8 15.2 9.4 EV / Total Assets 4.2 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 12.8 45.8 26.2 10.2 13.8 23.9 EPS (fully diluted) 11.6 46.0 26.3 10.2 13.8 23.9 Cash EPS 13.2 46.4 27.6 12.1 16.5 27.3 DPS - 4.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Book Value 23.4 116.0 142.3 181.3 192.8 214.4 Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 55.4 66.7 53.4 42.8 41.9 46.4 Tax retention ratio 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 ROIC (Post-tax) 12.1 36.0 13.3 5.0 5.7 8.7 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.7 2.3 3.4 4.2 4.5 4.8 Leverage (x) 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Operating ROE 19.2 63.5 18.9 5.5 6.5 10.9 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 19.6 41.6 14.6 6.7 7.4 11.7 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 21.7 58.4 19.5 8.8 10.2 16.5 ROE 79.5 65.0 19.9 6.2 7.2 11.5 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.7 4.2 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 Inventory / Sales (days) 508.0 191.6 370.7 574.0 505.2 377.3 Receivables (days) 150.7 115.4 177.8 94.2 67.9 61.0 Payables (days) 791.1 294.1 345.6 447.2 401.6 345.9 Working cap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 673.9 321.9 724.6 996.3 652.0 409.9 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 2.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 Net debt to EBITDA 6.3 1.0 2.7 5.9 4.4 2.7 Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 4.7 31.0 9.7 2.9 3.1 4.7 May 17, 2010 7
  • 8. DLF 4QFY2010 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited nor its directors, employees and affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement DLF 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 May 17, 2010 8