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16 November
2018
PAGE 2
•
(1) (2) (3)
10 12
3.125%
•
2016
7 2017 4
0.66%
•
0.66%
0.64%
0.24% 0.06%
0.35%
Bloomberg 2018/11/15
商品 資金流向
-1.48
-1.63
-1.64
-1.10
0.06
0.07
-1.80
-0.11
0.79
-0.25
-0.33
-0.53
0.10
-0.01
0.35
-1.49
-1.49
-1.43
-0.66
-0.64
-0.63
-0.46
-0.24
-0.03
0.06
0.17
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.63
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
iPhone
NASDAQ 3.61%
S&P 500 2.73%
•
600 2.36% 225
3.04%
•
1.23%
• 10 6%
1.48%
Bloomberg 2018/11/15
商品 資金流向
-2.10
-0.75
-1.15
-0.31
-0.24
-4.39
-1.36
-2.24
-0.93
4.05
0.94
-0.75
1.72
1.13
3.13
3.90
-3.04
-2.73
-2.54
-2.38
-2.36
-2.26
-2.09
-1.51
-1.48
-1.38
-1.28
-1.20
-0.80
0.06
0.41
1.23
Nikkei 225
500
MSCI
MSCI
600
MSCI
RTS
DAX
H
MSCI
MSCI
SENSEX
BOVESPA
% %
PAGE 4
• 12
12
OPEC
5%
• (EIA)
11 9 1,027 ( )
8 2017 2
Bloomberg EIA 2018/11/15
12
商品 資金流向
-21.34
-17.53
-10.74
-3.14
-4.83
-7.11
-2.84
-1.13
-3.71
-1.86
-0.31
-0.88
-6.94
-5.70
-4.41
-3.49
-3.07
-2.20
-1.61
-0.87
-0.44
0.47
1.11
2.12
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 11 14 46
26 0.4
12 5
13
• 52 8 7
20 23
6
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2018/11/15
商品 資金流向
PAGE 7
•
David Malpass
• 10 10
0.3%
CPI 0.2%
CPI 2.1% 9 2.2%
2.2%
•
Jamal Khashoggi
17
Shaham
al-Qahtani
Bloomberg 2018/11/15
( 1) S&P 500 K
( 2)
PAGE 8
• Lipper
11/7 1 10.4
10.4
• FCC Sprint T-Mobile
(FCC)
9 180
FCC 12 4
Sprint T-Mobile FCC
• GE (GE)
Baker Hughes 40
GE
GE ( 2) GE
Bloomberg Refinitiv Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2018/11/15
PAGE 9
•
May
11/25
Raab
• 3
GDP 0.2% 2015
GDP
GDP 0.2% 2014
•
11/21
• GDP GDP
-0.3% 0.7%
GDP
Bloomberg 2018/11/15
GDP
PAGE 10
•
•
6% 6
4.75%
•
Obrador
Obrador
•
1 8.0%
Bloomberg 2018/11/15
( 1)
( 2)
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2018/11/23
/ / 本益比 風險
/ /
11/19 10 -¥70.0b ¥131.3b
11/20 10 1230k 1201k
11/20 10 ( ) 0.20% 0.50%
11/20 10 PPI( ) 3.30% 3.20%
11/21 11 98.3 98.3
11/21 10 -2.10% 0.70%
11/21 10 0.10% 0.50%
11/21 10 5.20m 5.15m
11/22 11 -3 -2.7
11/22 10 1.40% 1.20%
11/22 11 -- 32.64
11/22 11 -- 57.3
11/23 11 Markit 55.9 55.7
11/23 11 Markit 55 54.8
11/23 11 Markit 51.7 52
11/23 11 Markit 53.5 53.7
11/23 11 -- 52.9
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 128.0 (11/15) 5 : 125.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.34 (11/15)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.00 (11/15)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 289.07 (11/15) 5 : 320.4
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.05 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 449.6 (11/15) 5 : 451.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.14 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 404.0 (11/15) 5 : 436.2
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.70 (11/15)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 436.0 (11/15) 5 : 362.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.93 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 589.7 (11/15) 5 : 503.4
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.91 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 378.87 (11/15) 5 : 337.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 6.35 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 330.49 (11/15) 5 : 331.4
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 8.35 (11/15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 535.0 (11/15) 5 : 573.1
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.82 (11/15)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 277.77 (11/15) 5 : 255.2
PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.3 (11/15) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.7 (11/15) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.8 (11/15) 5 : 15.4
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 15.6 (11/15) 5 : 17.7
PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.5 (11/15) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.3 (11/15) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 20.1 (11/15) 5 : 18.0
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.1 (11/14) 5 : 12.7
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.98 (11/15) 5 : 14.67
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 56.2 (11/15) 5 : 65.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 62.3 (11/15) 5 : 72.5
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 392.1 (11/15) 5 : 362.4
PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15
2018/11/15
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR107204
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
101 013
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20181116

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • (1) (2) (3) 10 12 3.125% • 2016 7 2017 4 0.66% • 0.66% 0.64% 0.24% 0.06% 0.35% Bloomberg 2018/11/15 商品 資金流向 -1.48 -1.63 -1.64 -1.10 0.06 0.07 -1.80 -0.11 0.79 -0.25 -0.33 -0.53 0.10 -0.01 0.35 -1.49 -1.49 -1.43 -0.66 -0.64 -0.63 -0.46 -0.24 -0.03 0.06 0.17 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.63 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • iPhone NASDAQ 3.61% S&P 500 2.73% • 600 2.36% 225 3.04% • 1.23% • 10 6% 1.48% Bloomberg 2018/11/15 商品 資金流向 -2.10 -0.75 -1.15 -0.31 -0.24 -4.39 -1.36 -2.24 -0.93 4.05 0.94 -0.75 1.72 1.13 3.13 3.90 -3.04 -2.73 -2.54 -2.38 -2.36 -2.26 -2.09 -1.51 -1.48 -1.38 -1.28 -1.20 -0.80 0.06 0.41 1.23 Nikkei 225 500 MSCI MSCI 600 MSCI RTS DAX H MSCI MSCI SENSEX BOVESPA % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • 12 12 OPEC 5% • (EIA) 11 9 1,027 ( ) 8 2017 2 Bloomberg EIA 2018/11/15 12 商品 資金流向 -21.34 -17.53 -10.74 -3.14 -4.83 -7.11 -2.84 -1.13 -3.71 -1.86 -0.31 -0.88 -6.94 -5.70 -4.41 -3.49 -3.07 -2.20 -1.61 -0.87 -0.44 0.47 1.11 2.12 LME LME CRB LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 11 14 46 26 0.4 12 5 13 • 52 8 7 20 23 6 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2018/11/15 商品 資金流向
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • David Malpass • 10 10 0.3% CPI 0.2% CPI 2.1% 9 2.2% 2.2% • Jamal Khashoggi 17 Shaham al-Qahtani Bloomberg 2018/11/15 ( 1) S&P 500 K ( 2)
  • 9. PAGE 8 • Lipper 11/7 1 10.4 10.4 • FCC Sprint T-Mobile (FCC) 9 180 FCC 12 4 Sprint T-Mobile FCC • GE (GE) Baker Hughes 40 GE GE ( 2) GE Bloomberg Refinitiv Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2018/11/15
  • 10. PAGE 9 • May 11/25 Raab • 3 GDP 0.2% 2015 GDP GDP 0.2% 2014 • 11/21 • GDP GDP -0.3% 0.7% GDP Bloomberg 2018/11/15 GDP
  • 11. PAGE 10 • • 6% 6 4.75% • Obrador Obrador • 1 8.0% Bloomberg 2018/11/15 ( 1) ( 2)
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2018/11/23 / / 本益比 風險 / / 11/19 10 -¥70.0b ¥131.3b 11/20 10 1230k 1201k 11/20 10 ( ) 0.20% 0.50% 11/20 10 PPI( ) 3.30% 3.20% 11/21 11 98.3 98.3 11/21 10 -2.10% 0.70% 11/21 10 0.10% 0.50% 11/21 10 5.20m 5.15m 11/22 11 -3 -2.7 11/22 10 1.40% 1.20% 11/22 11 -- 32.64 11/22 11 -- 57.3 11/23 11 Markit 55.9 55.7 11/23 11 Markit 55 54.8 11/23 11 Markit 51.7 52 11/23 11 Markit 53.5 53.7 11/23 11 -- 52.9
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE 10 (%) (bp) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 128.0 (11/15) 5 : 125.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 4.34 (11/15) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 6.00 (11/15) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 289.07 (11/15) 5 : 320.4
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 7.05 (11/15) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 449.6 (11/15) 5 : 451.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 7.14 (11/15) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 404.0 (11/15) 5 : 436.2 (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 4.70 (11/15) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 436.0 (11/15) 5 : 362.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 8.93 (11/15) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 589.7 (11/15) 5 : 503.4
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 6.91 (11/15) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 378.87 (11/15) 5 : 337.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 6.35 (11/15) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 330.49 (11/15) 5 : 331.4
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 8.35 (11/15) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 535.0 (11/15) 5 : 573.1 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 5.82 (11/15) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 277.77 (11/15) 5 : 255.2
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 15.3 (11/15) 5 : 16.6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 16.7 (11/15) 5 : 17.5 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.8 (11/15) 5 : 15.4 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 15.6 (11/15) 5 : 17.7
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.5 (11/15) 5 : 12.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.3 (11/15) 5 : 12.6 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 20.1 (11/15) 5 : 18.0 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.1 (11/14) 5 : 12.7
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 19.98 (11/15) 5 : 14.67 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 56.2 (11/15) 5 : 65.5 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 62.3 (11/15) 5 : 72.5 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 : 392.1 (11/15) 5 : 362.4
  • 22. PAGE 21 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% '13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '13/11/15 '14/11/15 '15/11/15 '16/11/15 '17/11/15 '18/11/15 2018/11/15 * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR107204 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 101 013 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898