The document outlines multiple critical threats related to terrorism, including a Tunisian ISIS cell's cross-border attack from Libya, al Shabaab's bomb attempts in Somalia, and direct negotiations by the al Houthis in Yemen. It assesses ongoing security dynamics, highlighting the continued operations of al Qaeda-affiliated groups and escalating militant activities in various regions, particularly in Libya and West Africa. The overall outlook suggests persistent threats from these groups despite military and diplomatic efforts to contain them.

1. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT
March 8, 2016

2. TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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3
1. A Tunisian ISIS cell operating from a Libyan safe-haven launched a coordinated cross-border
attack into Tunisia and will generate more attacks on Tunisia in the future.
2. Al Shabaab attempted to move explosive devices onto a plane in Somalia for the second time,
indicating a concerted effort to develop and refine the capability.
3. The al Houthis entered into direct negotiations to resolve the Yemeni conflict by sending a
delegation to Saudi Arabia for the first time. Previous talks ran through intermediaries.
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3. ASSESSMENT:
al Qaeda Network
Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Lisa Monaco stated that the Islamic State of Iraq and al
Sham (ISIS) has “eclipsed core al Qaeda as the principal terrorist threat” the U.S. faces. She added, however, that the threat
from al Qaeda remains. The affiliates, which have largely escaped intense military operations that placed pressure on al Qaeda
senior leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan, remain active and the U.S. continues to disrupt plots from them.
Outlook: Al Qaeda-linked groups will continue to conduct their local and regional military campaigns, building strength and
local resilience.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda Associates
Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) released the first episode of a series, “al Hadeed,” intended to report on AQIS
operations and promote its propaganda material. The first episode, produced by “al Sahab Media Subcontinent,” featured an
audio clip with AQIS leader Asim Umar and focuses on the assassinations of Bangladeshi bloggers.
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a splinter faction of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) conducted a suicide attack in a local court in Charsadda,
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The suicide attack killed 17 people and injured 30 others.
Outlook: Pakistani security forces will sustain increased ground and air operations in the FATA, as it enters the final phase of
Operation Zarb-e-Azb.
3
AL QAEDA

4. ASSESSMENT:
Political
The opening of direct talks between al Houthi representatives and Saudi officials in Saudi Arabia is a marked shift in how
political negotiations for a resolution to the Yemen crisis had been structured. It is not clear whether former president Ali
Abdullah Saleh, a critical powerbroker in the conflict, has representatives present at the talks. Separately, both Saleh and
General Ali Mohsen al Ahmar, aligned with President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, have been attempting to secure the loyalty of
northern tribes.
Outlook: The al Houthi-Saudi talks are unlikely to reach a rapid political settlement. Even should they resolve the national-level
conflict, neither the al Houthi-Saleh alliance nor Hadi or the coalition exercise direct control over factions on the ground, and will
likely continue to fight for their own interests.
Security
Coalition-backed forces pushed northward in Hajjah and al Jawf governorates in northern Yemen, while fighting continued along
established frontlines in central Yemen. Militants in Aden meanwhile assassinated two high-level officials with responsibility for
countering militancy in southern Yemen. U.S. and coalition airstrikes targeted AQAP in Shabwah and near al Mukalla,
Hadramawt, respectively.
Outlook: The coalition will continue to pressure al Houthi forces in the north as President Hadi struggles to secure Aden.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
Gunmen believed to be affiliated with ISIS executed residents at a Christian nursing home in Aden. AQAP’s Ansar al Sharia
denied involvement in the attack, which is outside of AQAP’s attack signature. AQAP displayed its continued strength in al
Mukalla by holding a two-day rally and also posted pictures of a tribal gathering in Abyan.
Outlook: AQAP will continue to operate among tribal groups and militias, drawing strength from relations built on the ground.
4
YEMENGULF OF ADEN

5. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
5
YEMENGULF OF ADEN
1
5
4
3
2
1) 04 MAR: Militants
stormed a nursing
home in Aden.
2) 04 MAR: A
reported U.S.
airstrike killed four
AQAP militants in
Rudum, Shabwah.
3) 01 and 03 MAR:
Coalition airstrikes
targeted AQAP
weapons stores near
al Mukalla,
Hadramawt.
4) 05 MAR: Gunmen
assassinated a police
chief in Aden.
5) 02 MAR: The
coalition ordered
vessels to leave al
Hudaydah port.

6. ASSESSMENT:
Political
The composition of the Galmudug State administration remains contentious. Galmudug State officials attempted to negotiate
the assimilation of the Sufi Ahlu Sunna Wa al Jama’a (ASWJ) group into the regional administration’s security forces in
Dhusamareb on March 2. The talks dissolved and ASWJ forces drove Somali army troops from Dhusamareb.
Outlook: ASWJ will likely continue to tie up Galmudug’s security resources, hindering efforts against al Shabaab.
Security
The U.S. targeting of al Shabaab militants at a camp in Hiraan region on March 6 indicates a shift in the U.S. target set in
Somalia. A Pentagon official claimed the militants posed an imminent threat to U.S. troops and African Union Mission in
Somalia (AMISOM) forces in Somalia. The airstrike, reportedly conducted in collaboration with Somali intelligence assets, killed
approximately 150 militants. Al Shabaab confirmed the strike, but denied the high casualty count.
Outlook: The U.S. will sustain a counterterrorism mission in Somalia oriented against direct and imminent threats.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab may be refining its ability to move explosive devices aboard planes. Al Shabaab attempted to smuggle several
explosive devices concealed in electronics aboard a passenger plane at Beledweyne’s Ugas Khalif Airport. One device
prematurely detonated at a screening checkpoint. Two additional concealed explosives were found and cleared by security
personnel. This attempt is similar to the group’s Daallo Airlines bombing in Mogadishu on February 2, when an al Shabaab
suicide bomber detonated a laptop bomb mid-flight, forcing the plane to land. The attempt indicates a trend in attacks against
commercial airliners, and also shows increasing sophistication in al Shabaab’s ability to manufacture concealed explosives.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely strive to conduct a successful passenger plane bombing in order to increase its global notoriety.
6
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

7. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
7
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
4
3
1
2
1) 06 MAR: U.S.
airstrikes targeted an
al Shabaab camp in
Hiraan region.
2) 07 MAR: Al
Shabaab attempted
to smuggle an IED
onto an airplane at
Beledweyne Airport,
Hiraan region.
3) 03 MAR: Al
Shabaab detonated
an IED targeting the
Somali Defense
Minister’s convoy
near Kismayo Airport,
Lower Jubba region.
4) 07 MAR: Kenyan
police arrested ISIS
recruits in Busia
County, Kenya.

8. ASSESSMENT:
Political
The Libyan House of Representatives has yet to reach a consensus on the cabinet for the Government of National Accord.
Outlook: Spoilers will continue to hinder the implementation of the GNA due to conflicting political interests.
Security
LNA forces have cleared the majority of Benghazi of Islamist militants, including ISIS, Ansar al Sharia, and affiliated groups.
The remaining militants in the city are trapped in the al Sabri district as well as isolated positions in the western periphery of the
city. Convoys of ISIS militants have reportedly fled from Benghazi to Sirte due to the ongoing LNA offensive. LNA forces and
local police are now coordinating to secure the areas of the city that have been cleared.
Outlook: LNA forces will continue to target the remaining Islamist militant strongholds in Benghazi. However, the LNA will
struggle to control and retain the city because of entrenched Salafi-jihadi networks that will facilitate retaliatory attacks.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
A Tunisian ISIS cell based near Sabratha attacked Tunisian security targets across the border in Ben Guerdane, signaling that
the group is using its Libyan sanctuary as a support zone for a Tunisia-focused campaign. Allied Sabrathan militias are
contesting the cell’s current positions near Sabratha. ISIS Wilayat Tarablus militants continue to target local opposition and
project their influence from their base in Sirte. Western leaders remain hesitant to intervene in Libya in the absence of a unified
Libyan government. American, French, British, and Italian special operations personnel continue to conduct reconnaissance on
ISIS targets and provide covert support for Libyan forces in Misrata and Benghazi.
Outlook: ISIS will continue to use its Libyan sanctuary to generate attacks both inside Libya and throughout the region.
International forces will continue to conduct airstrikes on high-value ISIS targets and provide limited support to local forces.
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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

9. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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LIBYAWEST AFRICA
4
3
1
2
5
1) 03 MARCH: LNA
forces seized a
militant-held military
base in Benghazi,
Libya.
2) 03 MARCH: ISIS
militants fled from
Benghazi to Sirte.
3) 06 MARCH: LNA
forces clashed with
an ISIS convoy south
of Ajdabiya.
4) 02-04 MARCH:
Sabrathan Joint
Taskforce fighters
clashed with ISIS
militants in Sabratha.
5) 02 MARCH: ISIS
militants killed two
Italian hostages near
Sabratha.

10. ASSESSMENT:
AQIM
AQIM remained quiet this week as Algerian security forces destroyed numerous suspected terrorist bunkers and killed two
suspected terrorists during clearing operations in Bouira, northern Algeria. It is likely the clearing operations are routine and in
reaction to clashes with ISIS-linked militants last month.
Outlook: AQIM and its affiliates will maintain focus on expanding in Mali and opposing Western influence through recruitment. .
Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)
Increased militant activity in the mountains of Sidi Bouzid and Kasserine provinces, Tunisia, signals an operational step-change
in territory frequented by Uqba Ibn Nafa’a members. At least twenty militants attacked a Sidi Bouzid town on March 4, less than
a week after Tunisian security forces in the same area killed four suspected terrorists, including Mohammed al Basdouri, who is
linked to the Bardo and Sousse attacks. Basdouri’s connections to ISIS give credence to reports of internal conflict between
AQIM-linked Uqba militants and pro-ISIS defectors. Further defections to ISIS may presage the creation of a new wilayat in
Tunisia, which is increasingly likely following an organized ISIS attack in Ben Guerdane, southeast Tunisia, on March 7.
Outlook: ISIS will conduct more attacks in both central Tunisia and along the Tunisian-Libyan border.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)
Ansar al Din and its southern affiliate, the Macina Liberation Front (MLF), launched a series of attacks against Malian and UN
security forces this week. Ansar al Din detonated IEDs targeting UN vehicles in Kidal and near Tessalit in northeastern Mali.
The group also launched mortars at a UN camp in Kidal and was likely responsible for shelling near a UN camp in Tessalit. The
MLF attacked a police checkpoint, killing three soldiers, in Macina, Segou Region, central Mali.
Outlook: Ansar al Din and its affiliates will continue to coordinate attacks against local and international security forces in order
to destabilize the region and to expand their area of operations.
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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

11. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
11
MAGHREBWEST AFRICA
2
3
1
4
1) 01 MAR: Tunisian
security forces killed
a suspected ISIS
militant in Sidi
Bouzid.
2) 01-02 MAR:
Algerian security
forces killed two
suspected terrorists
and destroyed
bunkers in Bouira.
3) 04 MAR: Militants,
likely from the ISIS-
linked Fallujah
Brigade, attacked
homes in Sidi Bouzid.
4) 07 MAR: ISIS
militants conducted
an organized attack
on Tunisian military
and police posts in
Ben Guerdane.

12. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
12
SAHELWEST AFRICA
2
3
1
4
1) 01 MAR: Ansar al
Din detonated an IED
targeting a UN
vehicle near Tessalit,
Kidal region.
2) 02 MAR: MLF
militants attacked a
police checkpoint in
Macina, Segou
region.
3) 04 MAR: Ansar al
Din launched mortars
at a UN camp in
Kidal.
4) 07 MAR: Militants
attacked a Malian
army camp in
Misseni, Sikasso
region.

13. ACRONYMS
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African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Pakistani Military (PakMil)
Possible military dimensions (PMD)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

14. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
Katherine Zimmerman
senior al Qaeda analyst
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Paul Bucala
Iran analyst
paul.bucala@aei.org
(202) 888-6573
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Heather Malacaria
program manager
heather.malacaria@aei.org
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
emily.estelle@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
Caitlin Pendleton
Iran analyst
caitlin.pendleton@aei.org
(202) 888-6577
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
fkagan@aei.org
(202) 888-6569
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