The document outlines a critical threats assessment focusing on the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Somalia, and Libya as of April 2016. Key highlights include the holding of a UN-brokered ceasefire in Yemen, increased violence from al-Shabaab in Somalia, and the consolidation of authority by the Libyan Government of National Accord. The report also discusses the strategies of al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates across the region, their targeted attacks, and the evolving political and security dynamics.

1. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT
April 12, 2016

2. TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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1. The UN-brokered ceasefire in Yemen is holding in advance of the April 18 talks in Kuwait,
despite ongoing fighting in key areas.
2. Al Shabaab launched two vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in Mogadishu
this week, displaying an inflection in its bomb-producing capabilities.
3. Key Libyan factions backed the UN-recognized Libyan unity government, which will probably
become a critical counter-terrorism partner in the counter-ISIS fight.
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3. ASSESSMENT:
al Qaeda Network
Al Qaeda is actively distancing itself from attacks against selected targets in Yemen and Tunisia, a continuation of al Qaeda’s
strict vision of who is and is not a legitimate target. The purpose is to ensure that al Qaeda’s actions are not alienating toward
the local population. Al Qaeda groups are also continuing to issue warnings to Muslim civilians to avoid potential attack sites,
such as embassies, tourist areas, and foreign companies. Al Qaeda groups have disciplined members within their ranks who
have deviated from approved targets.
Outlook: Al Qaeda-linked groups will continue to conduct their local and regional military campaigns, building strength and
local resilience.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associates
Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) declared war on atheists in Bangladesh, incorporating its ongoing campaign of
assassinations of secular bloggers into a broader effort. Ansar al Islam, the AQIS affiliate in Bangladesh, killed law student
Nazimuddin Samad in Dhaka. Samad was an outspoken atheist and is the latest in a number of killings of atheist bloggers
perpetrated by ISIS and Ansar al Islam.
Outlook: Pakistani security forces will continue the crackdown on radical militant Islamist groups in Punjab.
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AL QAEDA

4. ASSESSMENT:
Political
The UN-brokered ceasefire that began on April 10 is holding despite minor reports of ongoing fighting. President Abdu Rabbu
Mansour Hadi’s government, the al Houthis, and former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s General People’s Congress party have
all expressed formal support for the ceasefire agreement, though each has reserved a right to take defensive action should
violations occur. Reports of ongoing high-level meetings within each faction indicate preparations for the April 18 UN-led talks.
Outlook: Al Houthi-Saleh and Hadi government delegates will participate in the scheduled UN-led talks in Kuwait.
Security
Al Houthi and Saudi officials deescalated violence along the border, resuming an unofficial ceasefire established in early March,
and a nation-wide ceasefire depressed the overall level of violence. Clashes continued in Taiz, Sana’a, Ma’rib, Shabwah, and al
Jawf through the beginning of the ceasefire as ground forces continued efforts to consolidate gains. Al Houthi-Saleh forces
successfully contested the main road into southwest Taiz city, which coalition-backed forces had seized in mid-March.
Outlook: Fighting will likely occur in Taiz and Ma’rib. Attacks along the Saudi-Yemeni border are unlikely.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
AQAP used a security narrative to help justify its presence and expansion in Abyan governorate. The group denied involvement
in an attack on pro-Hadi forces in Ahwar, Abyan, suggesting ISIS or other militant groups were active in the area and that it was
actively seeking to remove them. AQAP also asserted control over al Mahfad, Abyan governorate after clashes with tribal
militants at a tribal checkpoint. AQAP’s Ansar al Sharia may be further consolidating control in al Mukalla, where it seized the
headquarters of a local writers’ union.
Outlook: AQAP will use local intermediaries to negotiate its freedom of movement in Abyan governorate.
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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

5. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
5
YEMENGULF OF ADEN
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1) 10 APR: Al Houthi-
Saleh forces seized
control of al Dhabab
road in Taiz city.
2) 09 APR: Gunmen
executed 15 pro-Hadi
soldiers in Ahwar,
Abyan.
3) 11 APR: AQAP
asserted control in al
Mahfad, Abyan,
following clashes
with local tribesmen.
4) 06 APR: AQAP
seized a writers’
union in al Mukalla,
Hadramawt.
5) 08 APR: Likely
AQAP militants
shelled Aden from
southern Lahij.
UN-sponsored
ceasefire began.
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6. ASSESSMENT:
Political
The Somali Federal Government (SFG) is mediating a new round of state formation talks between the Hiraan and Middle
Shabelle regions following disagreements over the planned state’s electoral system. Concerns over power sharing with local
powerbrokers have hindered the progress of the talks.
Outlook: It is unlikely that the current round of talks will generate consensus across powerbrokers in Hiraan and Middle
Shabelle regions on the terms of the new Federal Member State.
Security
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and Somali National Army (SNA) forces have begun to pressure al Shabaab’s
historical stronghold in Dinsor district in Bay region. The anti-al Shabaab forces have sustained a high operational tempo in the
area and have cleared and secured several small villages nearby. U.S. official statements on U.S. drone strikes in Somalia
indicate a shift in policy whereby the U.S. is now conducting strikes against al Shabaab forces to protect ground partners.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely fight to hold settlements in Dinsor district as SNA and AMISOM forces advance.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab may be improving its bomb-making capabilities in the vicinity of Mogadishu. It detonated two vehicle-borne
improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in Mogadishu within three days. The last time it launched two VBIEDs in Mogadishu
within a similar time period was June. Separately, a new Salafi-jihadi group, “Jabha East Africa,” announced its existence and
pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), probably an ISIS response to al Shabaab’s al Muhajiroun in
East Africa. The ISIS-linked group is unlikely to challenge al Shabaab’s dominant position in the region.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will target officials to further undermine security in Mogadishu. Al Shabaab will also crack down on
militants who try to defect to ISIS.
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

7. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
1) 09, 11 APR: Al
Shabaab detonated
two VBIEDs in
Mogadishu.
2) 07 APR: A
reported U.S.
airstrike and
unidentified SOF
targeted al Shabaab
near Jilib, Middle
Shabelle.
3) 06, 08 APR: Al
Shabaab ambushed
two Ethiopian
AMISOM convoys.
4) 10 APR:
Approximately 100 al
Shabaab fighters
raided a police
station in Diff town,
Wajir County, Kenya.
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8. ASSESSMENT:
Political
The UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) continues to consolidate authority in Tripoli following the dissolution of
the oppositional General National Congress (GNC). Libya’s Central Bank and the National Oil Company endorsed the GNA,
giving it the opportunity to build legitimacy by addressing Libya’s economic crisis. The GNA still needs the endorsement of the
House of Representatives (HoR), which likely hinges on the fate of General Khalifa Haftar, the HoR’s primary military backer.
Outlook: The success or failure of the GNA’s first economic policies will determine whether opposition powerbrokers fall in line.
Security
The Libyan National Army (LNA), Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (MSCD), and ISIS Wilayat Barqa are vying for control of
Derna, where the MSCD remains the dominant force on the ground. LNA forces seized the main supply line leading into the
city. Wilayat Barqa may be stepping up its offensive operations against the MSCD in an effort to reclaim territory in the city,
which it held from late 2014 until mid-2015. Separately, the LNA continued clearing operations in Benghazi.
Outlook: The LNA will expand its operations in Derna with a focus on ISIS Wilayat Barqa before taking on the MSCD.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
ISIS Wilayat Tarablus continues to mobilize its forces south of Sirte, likely to secure lines of communication between Sirte and
southwestern Libya, where it is developing an affiliate. ISIS militants continued to clash with security forces guarding oil
infrastructure in central Libya, and recent reports of troop mobilizations in ISIS-held terrain suggests that the group may be
shaping for a sustained campaign in the oil crescent. ISIS may also launch spoiler attacks on LNA targets following reports that
the LNA and LNA-affiliated forces are preparing to attack ISIS’s stronghold in Sirte.
Outlook: ISIS will increase its presence in key southwestern cities, including Sebha. It will conduct attacks on LNA targets,
likely in Benghazi, should the LNA mobilize against Sirte.
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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

9. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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LIBYAWEST AFRICA
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1) 08 APR: ISIS
Wilayat Tarablus
militants recaptured
the Khashum Khail
checkpoint from local
security forces.
2) 05-12 APR: LNA
forces continued
clearing operations in
Benghazi.
3) 07 APR: ISIS
Wilayat Barqa
militants attacked
MSCD positions in
Derna.
4) 09 APR: ISIS
militants attacked
LNA forces outside of
Derna.

10. ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
Recent media publications underscore the enduring collaboration within the al Qaeda network. AQIM’s al Andalus Media
released condolences for Sheikh Abu Firas al Suri, a senior al Qaeda leader killed by a U.S. airstrike in Syria on April 5. AQIM
affiliate al Murabitoun released images of the March 18 AQIM attack on the In Salah gas plant in Krechba, central Algeria. Al
Murabitoun typically operates in the Sahel, where it has collaborated with AQIM on its hotel attack campaign. This collaboration
helps both AQIM and al Murabitoun maintain organizational capabilities in a very large attack zone.
Outlook: AQIM and al Murabitoun will launch joint media campaigns and attacks in the Sahel and possibly in southern Algeria.
Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)
Militant activity continued in central and western Tunisia, following renewed AQIM-linked Uqba Ibn Nafa’a activity there last
week. Tunisian forces clashed with militants in Sakiet Sidi Youssef, Kef governorate, near the Algerian border in northwest
Tunisia, and Tunisian residents captured a suspected terrorist in Sidi Bouzid, central Tunisia. Both AQIM and ISIS have recently
increased activity in Uqba Ibn Nafa’a’s area of operations and are likely competing for the support of Tunisian militants there.
Outlook: Uqba Ibn Nafa’a militants will continue clashing with Tunisian security forces conducting clearing operations along the
Tunisian-Algerian border.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)
Ansar al Din has likely increased its capabilities to conduct improvised explosive device (IED) attacks. The group carried out
three IED attacks targeting UN forces on consecutive days near Taglit, Kidal region, northeastern Mali, a step-change in its
capabilities. Malian security forces continued to put pressure on militants operating in central Mali. Malian security forces
arrested eight suspected members of the Ansar al Din affiliate, the Macina Liberation Front (MLF), in Diabali, Segou region.
Outlook: Ansar al Din will conduct more frequent IED attacks on UN peacekeeping forces in northeastern Mali.
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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

11. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA
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1) 05 APR: Tunisian
security forces
dismantled a pro-ISIS
cell in Zaghouan.
2) 07 APR: Tunisian
forces clashed with
suspected terrorists
in Sakiet Sidi Youssef,
Kef governorate.
3) 07 APR: Algerian
forces dismantled a
weapons
manufacturing
workshop in Setif.
4) 11 APR:
Suspected militants
sent a death threat to
a retired Tunisian
police officer in Sidi
Bouzid governorate.

12. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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SAHELWEST AFRICA
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1) 05 APR: French
Special Forces killed
suspected jihadists in
Ozene, Kidal region.
2) 06-08 APR: Ansar
al Din detonated
three IEDs targeting
UN vehicles near
Aguelhok, Kidal
region.
3) 08 APR: Malian
security forces
arrested eight
suspected MLF
militants in Diabali,
Segou region.
4) 10 APR: Gunmen
ambushed a UN
convoy near Bambara
Maoude, Timbuktu
region.

13. ACRONYMS
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African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Pakistani Military (PakMil)
Possible military dimensions (PMD)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

14. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
Katherine Zimmerman
senior al Qaeda analyst
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Paul Bucala
Iran analyst
paul.bucala@aei.org
(202) 888-6573
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Heather Malacaria
program manager
heather.malacaria@aei.org
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
emily.estelle@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
Caitlin Pendleton
Iran analyst
caitlin.pendleton@aei.org
(202) 888-6577
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
fkagan@aei.org
(202) 888-6569
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