CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network. The al Qaeda network update includes detailed assessments of al Qaeda’s affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. CTP’s Iran team follows developments on the internal politics, nuclear negotiations, and regional conflicts closely. Below are the top three takeaways from the week: 1. Al Qaeda issued a call for Muslims to mobilize to fight in al Sham. Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri urged Muslims to fight in Syria and for the factions in Syria to unify. Zawahiri described the Syrian uprising as the only one from the Arab Spring to have continued along the right path. He sought for Muslims to defend the gains made in Syria against other actors like Russia, Iran, and the West, and stated the objective of a governing entity establishing itself in the territory. Hamza bin Laden, Osama bin Laden’s son, echoed the call for mobilization. He also called on Muslims to unify in Iraq and Syria and for those who cannot travel to conduct lone-wolf attacks. 2. A pro-Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) cell attempted to weaponize anthrax and plan a mass-casualty attack similar to the 2013 Westgate Mall attack, according to Kenyan and Ugandan authorities. The cell’s ringleader may have communicated with ISIS militants in Libya and Syria, indicating an expansion of ISIS’s influence in East Africa. Governments seeking counterterrorism funding may also exaggerate ISIS’s presence, however. 3. ISIS resumed a territorial growth strategy in Libya after planned offensives on its stronghold in Sirte stalled. ISIS militants seized strategically located towns from Misratan militias to the west of Sirte as part of efforts to expand its contiguous zone of control in central Libya. ISIS is also bolstered by the support of tribal leaders and elders, representing factions of a large tribal federation that has suffered since the fall of Qaddafi. These tribal leaders are aligning with ISIS against opponents in both the Libyan National Army bloc in the east and the Misratan bloc in the west in order to protect their political and economic interests.

1. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT
May 10, 2016

2. TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
2
1
2
1. Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri called for Muslims to mobilize to Syria and unite in their
jihad in order to set conditions for a future emirate.
2. A pro-ISIS cell attempted to weaponize anthrax and plan a mass-casualty attack in Kenya and
Uganda, signaling possible ISIS expansion into East Africa.
3. ISIS is resuming a territorial growth strategy in Libya, bolstered by support from tribal factions
in central Libya.
3

3. ASSESSMENT:
al Qaeda Network
Al Qaeda continues to prioritize its efforts and the jihad in al Sham (Syria), calling for Muslims to mobilize. Al Qaeda leader
Ayman al Zawahiri described the uprising in Syria as the only Arab Spring uprising that took the right path and called for
Muslims to mobilize to Syria and for Muslims in Syria to unite in their fight against those seeking to repress Muslims, including
the West, Iran, Turkey, and Russia. Zawahiri framed the fight in Syria as one to free Syria of the regime so that a “mujahid
entity” will rise in it to govern. Zawahiri did not indicate that Jabhat al Nusra would be the governing force and acknowledge
ambilavence to the organization behind the governance as long as it supported Islam. Zawahiri’s statement reinforced a
massive campaign in Syria to mobilize Muslims against the regime. Hamza bin Laden, the son of Osama bin Laden, echoed the
call to mobilization, calling on those unable to join the jihad in theater to conduct lone-wolf attacks.
Outlook: Al Qaeda is still setting the conditions for an emirate in Syria, but is calling for the defense of its positions and the
unification of the fight.
3
AL QAEDA

4. ASSESSMENT:
Political
Attempts to resolve Yemen’s political crisis are ongoing outside of the UN framework. Former Yemeni vice president and prime
minister Khaled Bahah, whom President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi replaced in an April 2016 cabinet reshuffle, met with Saudi
Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, in Riyadh. UN-
led talks continued in Kuwait, but the al Houthi-Saleh delegations have sustained their objectives to the agenda.
Outlook: The Kuwait talks will continue at the tactical level to negotiate prisoner exchanges and local ceasefires, but are
unlikely to yield a negotiated political settlement.
Security
Clashes intensified in Taiz, Ma’rib, and Sana’a governorates, but remained below pre-ceasefire levels. Fissures between the
Aden security elements and the Hadi government were evident when Aden security and police forces began expelling residents
from northern governorates, which the Hadi government condemned. Southern powerbrokers are consolidating power in the
city and undermining the Hadi government’s authority.
Outlook: Clashes will likely continue at present levels with localized exchanges between the coalition and al Houthi-Saleh
forces. Southern officials will likely continue to foster regional constituencies and may attempt to sideline sources of opposition.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
AQAP is consolidating in historical safe havens in central and northwestern Shabwah. Tribal and military leaders seek to avert
coalition intervention through mediation with AQAP. Limited U.S. military deployments to Yemen will likely accelerate coalition
operations as well as local efforts to preempt them. A Salafi-jihadi cell, possibly including AQAP militants from al Mukalla,
launched IED attacks on civilians and local officials in Ma’rib city. Islamist militants continue to target Aden security officials.
Outlook: AQAP will negotiate to maintain its presence in Shabwah, absent indicators of coalition operations in the area, and
will continue to carry out attacks in Aden in order to undermine the consolidation of a strong state.
4
YEMENGULF OF ADEN

5. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
5
YEMENGULF OF ADEN
1
4
3
2
1) 05 MAY: U.S.
forces deployed to al
Anad base, Lahij.
2) 08 MAY: Southern
security forces
expelled northern
Yemenis from Aden.
3) 05 MAY: AQAP
began to withdraw
from Zinjibar, Abyan.
4) 09 MAY: Al
Houthi-Saleh forces
fired ballistic missile
toward Saudi Arabia.
5) 06 MAY: Possible
AQAP militants
detonated IED in a
qat market in Ma’rib
city.
5

6. ASSESSMENT:
Political
The Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) allegedly exploited underage, former al Shabaab members to
identify active militants, according to the Washington Post. The UN has likened the practice to the use of child soldiers. A
senior NISA official claimed that the CIA has full knowledge of all NISA activities, including this program. The UN began caring
for the former militants when NISA halted the program in late 2015.
Outlook: The allegations may harm Somali counter-radicalization efforts, but will not impact NISA-CIA cooperation.
Security
The Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) may be expanding its influence in East Africa, though governments seeking
counterterrorism funding may also exaggerate its presence. Kenyan and Ugandan security forces arrested three members of
an ISIS-linked cell in Nairobi, Kenya and Kampala, Uganda. Kenyan authorities said the cell planned to carry out an attack
similar to the 2013 Westgate Mall attack and may have sought to weaponize anthrax. The cell was reportedly communicating
with ISIS in Libya and Syria. Ugandan police also increased security at Entebbe Airport after a “credible” al Shabaab threat.
Outlook: ISIS will court support in East Africa to compete with al Qaeda, but is unlikely to dedicate significant resources there.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab is attempting to prevent security forces from operating effectively in Mogadishu. Militants conducted a complex
attack with a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) on the traffic police headquarters. The group
targeted Somali National Army (SNA) troops with an improvised explosive device (IED) at Afgoi town, which controls traffic on
the main ground line of communication between Mogadishu and Kismayo. Militants claimed to have shelled the African Union
Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) headquarters in an attempt to threaten a British deployment there.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will attempt to further constrain SNA and AMISOM movement through Mogadishu in order to move
fighters and supplies into the city or its surroundings without interruption.
6
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

7. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
7
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
1) 03 MAY: Al
Shabaab shelled
AMISOM’s Halane
Base in Waberi
District, Mogadishu.
2) 03 MAY: Kenyan
and Ugandan security
forces arrested ISIS-
linked militants in
Nairobi, Kenya and
Kampala, Uganda.
3) 05 MAY: ISIS
claimed an ambush
on NISA officers in
Daynile District,
Mogadishu.
4) 06 MAY: Al
Shabaab attacked
SNA checkpoints in
Bardhere, Gedo
region.
4
3
1
2

8. ASSESSMENT:
Political
The UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) remains weak, especially following allied Misratan forces’ loss of
Abugrein to ISIS. The Libyan National Army (LNA) secured the support of militias in Libya’s oil crescent and is now the only
Libyan force positioned to attack ISIS in Sirte, rendering it unlikely to concede authority to the GNA. Elements of the Libyan
House of Representatives (HoR) support the GNA, but the LNA and its supporters in the HoR remain irreconcilable.
Outlook: The LNA will continue to position itself as an anti-ISIS force to gain political leverage, internally and internationally.
Security
The LNA is poised to attack ISIS’s stronghold in Sirte, but may also be using the impending offensive as cover to gain control in
Libya’s central oil crescent. The LNA claimed complete control over al Jufra district, south of Sirte, including the regional
airbase and nearby oilfields. Misratan militias are counterattacking in an effort to recapture Abugrein and key roads in the area.
Misratan forces are stretched thin, however, because they continue to support the GNA in Tripoli.
Outlook: The LNA will continue to consolidate control in the central oil crescent as well as in al Jufra. The Misratans will
dedicate more resources in an effort to recapture Abugrein, possibly inviting opposition from anti-GNA forces in Tripoli.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
ISIS has resumed its build strategy in Libya following the stalling of LNA and Misratan offensives on Sirte. ISIS is attempting to
consolidate control in Abugrein in order to build its coherent system of control on the central Libyan coast. ISIS is also bolstered
by the support of tribal leaders and elders, representing factions of a large tribal federation that has suffered since the fall of
Qaddafi. These tribal leaders are aligning with ISIS against opponents in both the LNA and Misratan blocs, and may support
ISIS-led campaigns on Libya’s oil infrastructure.
Outlook: ISIS will conduct explosive attacks to disrupt Misratan counterattacks on Abugrein and may pursue a similar strategy
to fix the LNA to the south and east of Sirte.
8
LIBYAWEST AFRICA

9. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
9
LIBYAWEST AFRICA
1) 05 MAY: ISIS
seized Abugrein and
several nearby towns
from Misratan forces.
2) 05 MAY: A large
ISIS convoy traveled
south toward al
Jufra.
3) 03 MAY: Misratan-
linked forces clashed
with LNA-affiliated
forces in Zillah.
4) 06-07 MAY:
Misratan forces
counterattacked
against ISIS militants
near Abugrein.
5) 08-09 MAY: ISIS
detained individuals
for Misratan and LNA
ties in Abugrein.
4
3
1
2
5

10. ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
AQIM is working to increase its military capabilities in El Oued province, eastern Algeria. The Algerian military is responding to
this uptick in AQIM activity, however, and killed the group’s arms director, a deputy of AQIM emir Abdelmalik Droukdel. The
leader of a militant group calling itself the “Islamic State in the Sahara,” who may be the former leader of an AQIM affiliate in the
Sahel, threatened attacks on the UN mission in the Western Sahara and security and tourist targets in Morocco.
Outlook: AQIM will continue to reactivate its networks and build capabilities in Algeria, especially in its center and south.
Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)
ISIS may be preparing to attack Jewish targets in Tunisia before or during Ramadan season. The Israeli Counter-terrorism
Bureau issued a travel warning for Djerba Island, Tunisia, citing a “severe concrete threat” to an annual Jewish festival on 25-
26 MAY. The warning comes a week after Tunisian security forces dismantled a cell in Djerba and interdicted a planned attack
on a synagogue in La Marsa. ISIS traditionally surges before or during Ramadan, and the holiday’s juxtaposition with the
Sykes-Picot centennial anniversary increases the incentive to attack. The AQIM-affiliated Uqba Ibn Nafa’a brigade continued
efforts to build its support zone in the Tunisian-Algerian border region, where Tunisian security forces recently dismantled
several logistical cells.
Outlook: ISIS will likely attack symbols of Western colonialism in northern Tunisia in the near term. Uqba Ibn Nafa’a will
continue to build its support base and defend its safe haven in western Tunisia.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)
AQIM-linked groups in Mali are developing robust media arms, indicating a dedicated source of funding and a concerted effort to
distribute a cohesive message. Ansar al Din likely shifted some of its media capabilities to its southern affiliate, the Macina Liberation
Front, to help build up the group’s media production capabilities.
Outlook: AQIM affiliates will conduct coordinated messaging campaigns in order to market their brand and drive recruitment.
.
10
MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

11. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
11
MAGHREBWEST AFRICA
2
3
4
1
1) 03 MAY: Tunisian
security forces
dismantled a four-
person terrorist cell
in Sidi Bouzid.
2) 04 MAY:
Moroccan security
forces arrested a
suspected pro-ISIS
militant in Saidia.
3) 05 MAY: Tunisian
security forces
dismantled an Uqba
Ibn Nafa’a cell in Kef.
4) 07 MAY: Algerian
forces seized a large
weapons cache in El
Oued, Algeria.
5) 09 MAY: Israel
warned against travel
to Djerba Island.
5

12. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
12
SAHELWEST AFRICA
3
2
1
4
1) 03 MAY: A UN
vehicle struck a
landmine in Agoufou,
Timbuktu region.
2) 04 MAY:
Suspected Macina
Liberation Front
militants raided a
Malian Army post in
Nampala, Mopti
region.
3) 06 MAY: Gunmen
attacked a Malian
Army position in
Asongo, Gao region.
4) 09 MAY: Gunmen
attacked a Malian
Army base near
Bamba, Gao region.

13. ACRONYMS
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African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Pakistani Military (PakMil)
Possible military dimensions (PMD)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

14. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
Katherine Zimmerman
senior al Qaeda analyst
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Paul Bucala
Iran analyst
paul.bucala@aei.org
(202) 888-6573
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Heather Malacaria
program manager
heather.malacaria@aei.org
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
emily.estelle@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
Caitlin Pendleton
Iran analyst
caitlin.pendleton@aei.org
(202) 888-6577
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
fkagan@aei.org
(202) 888-6569
14