CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: July 10, 2018
Yemen
The al Houthi movement deployed new missile and drone
capabilities likely facilitated by Iran. The al Houthi movement used an
unmanned aerial vehicle to drop explosives on targets on the Red Sea
coast and in Aden and unveiled an underground missile launcher. The
UAE may accelerate an offensive on al Hudaydah port in order to disrupt
Iranian support to al Houthi forces in response to these new capabilities.
Iran
Iranian hardliners are capitalizing on recent protests over
government mismanagement to discredit President Hassan Rouhani’s
government and policies, setting the stage for the possible
impeachment of a senior Rouhani official. Parliament will question
Finance Minister Massoud Karbasian in the coming days and may
impeach him. Economically driven protests occurred in several large
cities, including Tehran, in late June 2018.
An uptick in JNIM suicide attacks indicates that the group will likely
conduct attacks intended to disrupt the upcoming presidential
elections in Mali. JNIM, al Qaeda’s Malian affiliate, conducted two suicide
attacks on international security forces to protest the French president’s
visit to the African Union summit. JNIM often coordinates attacks with
major political events and has already condemned Mali’s elections.
Sahel

2. 2
ISIS’s West Africa Province (ISWA) may be developing ties with
Salafi-jihadi groups in the Sahel, indicating the group seeks to improve
its capabilities and coordinate its insurgency with other regional groups. A
trial of Boko Haram suspects in Niger—most likely members of the ISWA
faction—included multiple Malians. Boko Haram briefly had ties with al
Qaeda affiliates in Mali in 2012-2013.
Threat Update: July 10, 2018
Nigeria
The Libyan National Army recaptured key oil ports and has blockaded
exports in a bid for political power, undermining Libya’s already fragile
economy and increasing the likelihood of renewed civil war over the
country’s resources. The blockade deals a critical blow to the UN-backed
Government of National Accord, the U.S. counterterrorism partner in Libya,
which lacks local support and relies on international recognition.
Libya
Somalia
Al Shabaab is sustaining dual campaigns against the Somali and
Kenyan governments. The group focused its attacks on Kenya during
the month of Ramadan, during which it has surged in the past, and
has continued frequent attacks on Kenyan security forces into July. Al
Shabaab demonstrated its ability to destabilize the capital on July 7
with simultaneous attacks on Somalia’s interior and security ministries.

3. 3
Threat Update: July 10, 2018
South Asia
The sentencing and return of former Pakistani Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif may exacerbate political upheaval alongside the
upcoming general election in Pakistan. A Pakistani court sentenced
Sharif to a ten-year prison sentence for corruption on July 6. Pakistan-
based militant groups may be able to rebuild safe havens in the
country if military resources are diverted to address political instability for
an extended period.
Al Qaeda
Network
Continued pressure on Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) senior
leadership will disrupt the group’s operations in the short term. A
U.S. airstrike killed a senior TTP operational commander from the
Swat faction in eastern Afghanistan. The TTP may be susceptible to
splintering if the number of Swat members in leadership positions
continues to decrease and the Mehsud faction gains more influence.
AQIM’s Tunisian affiliate may be resuming offensive operations. The
Uqba ibn Nafa’a Brigade conducted two attacks in two weeks. The
second was the deadliest attack in Tunisia since 2015. Recent Uqba ibn
Nafa’a attacks have focused on acquiring supplies and defending its safe
haven. Continued offensive attacks would indicate the strengthening
of the group.
Tunisia

4. Yemen
4
03 JUL: Al Houthi forces unveiled an
underground ballistic missile launcher.
27 JUN and 28 JUN: Griffiths met with
Hadi government and al Houthi officials
to negotiate an al Houthi withdrawal
from Hudaydah.
02 JUL: Al Houthi forces distributed
footage of an unmanned aerial vehicle
(UAV) dropping explosives on Emirati-
backed forces for the first time.
Anmar Jerjees
New al Houthi weaponry may disrupt
Hudaydah negotiations
1 2
3
Present
05 JUL: An al Houthi UAV bombed a
coalition base in Aden governorate.
4

5. Sahel
5
JNIM attacks coincide with major political
events
Reilly Andreasen
1. 22 MAR: JNIM attacked the
MINUSMA Kidal base during the
Malian Prime Minister’s visit to Kidal.
2. 02 JUN: JNIM attacked the
MINUSMA Kidal base after the UN
Secretary-General’s visit to Mali.
3. 12 JUN - 16 JUN: Suspected JNIM
militants attacked the MINUSMA
Timbuktu base after an International
Criminal Court on-site investigation.
4. 29 JUN - 01 JUL: JNIM attacked
the G5 Sahel Force base and French
Barkhane patrol with SVBIEDs during
the French president’s visit to the
African Union Summit.
3
2
1
4
MALI
BURKINA FASO

6. Libya
6
LNA commander Haftar seeks leverages oil
takeover for political gains
Caitlin McMahon
26 JUN: Haftar transferred control of oil to a
parallel National Oil Corporation (NOC) in
Benghazi amid condemnation from the west.
02 JUL: The internationally-recognized NOC
announced a force majeure on oil from Hariga and
Zueitina, the last remaining open ports in Libya.
27-28 JUN: The U.S., France, Italy, UK,
UN, and EU condemned Haftar’s
decision, calling it illegitimate.
05 JUL: Haftar stated that production would
resume once the governor of the Central
Bank was replaced by an LNA ally.
Key
PFG/BDB
attack
GNA political
move
LNA attack
LNA political
move
1
2
3
4

7. Horn of
Africa
7
01 JUL: Al Shabaab conducted a mortar
attack on a Somali Independence Day
ceremony in Wadajir district in Mogadishu.
Isabelle Astier-Ibrahim
Al Shabaab conducts operations in Somalia
and Kenya
Present
07 JUL: Al Shabaab militants
detonated two VBIEDs at the interior
and security ministries in Mogadishu.
Al Shabaab Attacks in July 2018
1 2
Key
IED
Assassination
Ground assault

8. 8Jake Barnett
ISWA seeks to expand operations in Nigeria
and build ties with regional groups
Nigeria
1. 05 MAY: Nigerian security
forces arrested two ISWA
commanders near Abuja in
Gwagwalada, Federal Capital
Territory, Nigeria.
2. 19 JUN: ISWA militants
killed nine Nigerian soldiers in
attack on Army base in
Gaijram, Borno State, Nigeria.
3. 01 JUL: ISWA militants
killed ten Nigerien soldiers in
an attack on a military base in
Bla Brin, Niger.
4. 09 JUL: A Nigerien court
sentenced 17 members of
Boko Haram in Diffa, Niger.
The trial included Malians,
Nigeriens, and Nigerians.
ISWA kinetic engagement
Arrest or trial of ISWA members
MALI
NIGER
1
2
34
NIGERIA

9. Al Qaeda
Network
9
08 FEB: A U.S. airstrike killed TTP deputy
leader Khan Said Sajna in North Waziristan.
Mackenzie Robinson
U.S. airstrikes eliminate senior TTP
leadership
1
04 JUL: A U.S. airstrike killed TTP-
aligned commander Qari Abdullah Dawar
in North Waziristan.
4
04 JUL: A U.S. airstrike killed TTP
Swati commander Umar Rahman Fateh
in Kunar province, eastern Afghanistan.
3
13 JUN: A U.S. airstrike killed
TTP emir Fazlullah in Kunar
province, eastern Afghanistan.
2

10. 10Mackenzie Robinson
Sentencing of former Prime Minister Sharif
may exacerbate political instability
South
Asia
04 APR 2016: The leaked Panama Papers
revealed Sharif’s family purchased luxury
flats in London using corrupt funds.
28 JUL 2017: The Supreme Court
disqualified Sharif from office for not declaring
income from a company in the UAE.
1 2
3
Present
06 JUL 2018: The National Accountability
Bureau convicted Sharif of corruption and
sentenced him to 10 years in prison.
25 JUL 2018: Pakistan will
hold general elections.
4

11. Maghreb
11Bibi Lichauco
AQIM’s Tunisian affiliate reemerges
08 JUL: The Uqba ibn Nafa’a
Brigade killed nine Tunisian
security forces in an IED attack
near Ghardimaou.
26 JUN: The Uqba ibn Nafa’a
Brigade killed a shepherd
accused of spying for the
military near Mount Chaambi.
Significant Uqba ibn Nafa’a Attacks:
2012-2018
1
2

12. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISGS: ISIS in the Greater Sahara
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
ISWA: ISIS West Africa Province
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
12

13. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
13
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Jake Barnett
Iran Analysts
Mike Saidi
Nicholas Carl
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly