The document provides an update and assessment of various terrorist activities and geopolitical developments as of July 26, 2016. Key findings include Iran's continued sanctuary for senior al Qaeda operatives, increasing violence from al Shabaab and ISIS in Yemen and Libya, and the ineffectiveness of UN-led peace talks in Yemen. The outlook suggests an escalation of regional conflicts and terrorist activities, particularly with al Qaeda growing its leadership and influence amidst ongoing global counterterrorism efforts.

1. AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Update and Assessment
July 26, 2016

2. 2
TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
1. Iran continues to provide sanctuary to senior al Qaeda operatives who hold
financial, communications, and logistical roles within the organization.
2. Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the AQIM-affiliated al Murabitoun emir, denounced
France’s intervention in Libya in a written statement.
3. Al Shabaab suicide bombers targeted an AMISOM base in Mogadishu, killing
13 people, but failing to breach the compound’s perimeter.
3
1
2

3. 3
| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA
al Qaeda Network
Iran continues to provide senior al Qaeda operatives sanctuary. Al Qaeda’s network in Iran is a pipeline through which al
Qaeda can move money, facilitators, and operatives. The U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions on three
senior al Qaeda members operating in Iran on July 20, describing one of the designees as “part of a new generation of al
Qaeda operatives.” The other operatives served as mediators between al Qaeda and Iranian authorities and held financial,
communications, and logistical roles for the group.
Al Qaeda attacked the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham’s (ISIS) religious positions in four statements released by al
Qaeda’s al Sahab Media Foundation between July 19 and July 22. Al Qaeda refuted ISIS’s allegations of heresy and
accused ISIS of harboring Ba’athist intelligence officers. It also accused al Baghdadi and his followers of hypocrisy and
failing to abide by shari’a.
Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri reiterated his call for militants to kidnap Westerners for prisoner swaps, embedded in a
July 23 statement released by al Sahab. Recent Zawahiri statements focused on the “Islamic Spring,” and there is a notable
shift to focusing on a call to jihad and recognizing martyrs. Zawahiri mentioned two deceased al Qaeda hostages, American
Warren Weinstein and Italian Giovanni Lo Porto. Zawahiri also eulogized leaders from al Qaeda affiliates in Somalia and the
Caucasus and an al Qaeda-associated group in Egypt.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) continues to provide global guidance to the Salafi-jihadi movement. It analyzed
the tactics used in the July 15 Nice vehicular terrorist attack in the second edition of its “Inspire Guide,” a short series that
provides advice for future operations. An AQAP-influenced Telegram account, “Inspire the Believers,” published methods for
lone-wolf attacks at the Rio 2016 Olympics on July 20 and July 21. The account praised the attack methods of the 1972
Munich Olympics massacre and encouraged attackers to obtain guns, use weaponized drones, and instigate car crashes.
Outlook: Al Qaeda will continue to cultivate the next generation of its leadership in its Iranian safe haven and use
aggressive counter-messaging to combat ISIS propaganda, especially as ISIS loses terrain in Iraq and Syria.

4. 4
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
The UN-led peace talks in Kuwait are unlikely to yield an agreement. The Kuwaiti government expressed frustration with the
talks’ fruitlessness and issued an August 4 deadline for a resolution, at which time the al Houthi-Saleh delegation and
President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s delegation must leave Kuwait. President Hadi replaced four members of his
negotiating delegation and promoted four al Islah-affiliated and independent politicians in their place. Hadi’s reshuffle signals
an expanded role for the Islamist al Islah party, which is supported by Saudi Arabia and linked to Hadi’s vice president.
Outlook: The Hadi and al Houthi-GPC delegations will not agree to a lasting agreement before August 4.
Security
Al Houthi-Saleh forces launched an offensive campaign targeting Saudi Arabia following rhetoric denouncing Saudi
intervention in Yemen. Al Houthi-Saleh forces resumed cross-border attacks into southern Saudi Arabia after a six-week
pause and launched missiles or shells across the border every day between July 22 and July 26. Clashes slowed to a
normal tempo northeast of Sana’a, indicating that a large-scale offensive on Sana’a is no longer imminent. Violence rose in
Aden, Hadi’s de facto capital, where militants conducted eight explosive attacks and assassinations in one week.
Outlook: The Saudi-led coalition will escalate its air campaign in northern Yemen in response to cross-border attacks.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan is attempting to undermine local support for the internationally recognized government in Aden.
ISIS conducted an IED attack targeting military personnel on July 20 in Aden city and assassinated a Salafi militia
commander who cooperated with the Saudi-led coalition in Aden on July 21. AQAP continued a campaign of assassinations
to eliminate opposition leadership in Abyan and Aden governorates. Abyan is a historical support base for AQAP.
Outlook: AQAP will continue to target local leaders in Abyan and Lahij governorates, and ISIS will attack a military or
government target in Aden or al Mukalla in coming weeks.
GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

5. 5
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
1
2
54
3
1) 20 JUL: ISIS
militants detonated an
IED in al Mansoura,
Aden.
2) 21 JUL: ISIS
militants assassinated
Salafi leader in Sheikh
Othman, Aden.
3) 22 JUL: Militants
detonated a VBIED in
Sana’a city.
4) 25 JUL: Al Houthi-
Saleh forces launched
a Tochka missile
toward Jazan
province, Saudi
Arabia.
5) 25 JUL: Al Houthi-
Saleh fighters clashed
with Saudi border
guards near Najran
province, Saudi
Arabia.

6. 6
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
Officials from the self-declared independent region of Somaliland and the semi-autonomous Puntland state reached an
agreement to prevent the outbreak of a border war on July 23. Clashes over disputed land killed ten individuals and
displaced hundreds from July 18 to 21. Both states claim sovereignty of the Sanaag and Sool regions of northern Somalia.
Outlook: Conflict between Somaliland and Puntland will likely reignite in the future and risks enmeshing other regional
actors including Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
Security
Somali security services have not disrupted fully the lines of communication that allow al Shabaab to bring suicide vehicle-
borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) into Mogadishu. Al Shabaab militants conducted an explosive attack on a
UN and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) base in Mogadishu on July 26, killing 13 individuals and wounding 17
others. Somali intelligence officials seized an SVBIED in Bondhere district, Mogadishu on July 24 after local civilians
informed security officials about the planned attack.
Outlook: Al Shabaab may intensify its SVBIED campaign targeting UN, AMISOM, and Somali officials in Mogadishu in the
run-up to federal elections, scheduled to begin in August 2016.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab maintained control of strategic positions throughout central and southern Somalia. Al Shabaab has resisted
AMISOM and SNA efforts to recapture Marka, a key port city in Lower Shabelle region, since July 11. AMISOM forces are
preparing for an offensive on the port town. Al Shabaab fighters also occupied a village near Adale town in Middle Shabelle
region on July 21, and recaptured Berhani village in Lower Juba region on July 24 after being driven out by AMISOM forces.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely retreat from Marka before the AMISOM offensive, but will return if AMISOM or SNA forces
do not hold the town.
GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

7. 7
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
1
2
3
4
HoA SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 19 JUL - 25 JUL
1) 21 JUL: Puntland
and Somaliland
security forces
mobilized near Labho
area in Sanaag region.
2) 24 JUL: Somali
National Intelligence
and Security Agency
forces (NISA)
interdicted SVBIED in
Bondhere district of
Mogadishu.
3) 24 JUL: Al
Shabaab militants
reoccupied Berhani in
Lower Jubba region.
4) 25 JUL: AMISOM
and SNA forces
launched siege of al
Shabaab-controlled
Marka town in Lower
Shabelle region.

8. 8
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
Western counterterrorism operations in Libya are delegitimizing the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). Anti-
GNA protests broke out across Libya after France confirmed the presence of its troops in Benghazi alongside the Libyan
National Army (LNA), which contests the GNA’s authority. Protests in Misrata supported the Benghazi Defense Brigade
(BDB), an Islamist coalition with ties to al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia that is fighting against the LNA. The GNA
designated the BDB as a terrorist organization to legitimize the French intervention, but now risks straining ties with the
powerful Misratan militias that comprise its only military forces.
Outlook: Anti-LNA factions in western Libya will continue to support Islamist coalitions fighting against the LNA, further
undermining the unity government.
Security
Islamist coalitions supported by the Ansar al Sharia network are continuing efforts to reestablish safe havens in eastern
Libya. The LNA blocked militants from marching northward on Benghazi, but fighting is ongoing in the city. A statement
attributed to Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the emir of AQIM affiliate al Murabitoun, praised the militants fighting in Benghazi.
Outlook: The al Qaeda network will increase rhetorical and possibly material support for militants in eastern Libya,
especially as Western powers intervene.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
The counter-ISIS fight in Sirte remains stalled. Misratan forces operating under the GNA seized strategic locations in the city
but suffered heavy casualties. Another Misratan militia mobilized from southwestern Libya to reinforce the Sirte frontline.
Outlook: ISIS will take advantage of the new security vacuum in southwestern Libya to establish new bases, from which it
will seek to conduct attacks in northern Libya and in neighboring states.
WEST AFRICA LIBYA

9. 9
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA
1 2
3
4
1) 25 JUL: Misratan
forces seized an IED
factory and a security
headquarters in Sirte.
2) 20 JUL: The LNA
forced the Benghazi
Defense Brigade to
retreat from al Maqrun
between Ajdabiya and
Benghazi.
3) 19 JUL: The
Benghazi
Revolutionary Shura
Council advanced into
the Garyounis district
in Benghazi.
4) 25 JUL: The
Misratan Military
Council ordered the
Libyan Third Force to
move from Sebha to
Sirte.

10. 10
| ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the emir of AQIM-affiliated al Murabitoun, denounced the French military presence in Libya and urged
Libyan Muslims to fight against the West . The release of the written statement by al Murabitoun’s media wing strengthens
CTP’s assessment that Belmokhtar survived the June 15, 2015, U.S. airstrike that targeted a meeting of Islamist leaders in
Ajdabiya, Libya. AQIM has sanctuary in southern Libya and supports Islamist groups operating in the country’s northeast.
Outlook: AQIM will use the southern Libyan desert as a support zone for regional operations.
Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)
Tunisian authorities cracked down on suspected Salafi-jihadi militants and smuggling networks, which ISIS and other Salafi-
jihadi groups use to move operatives and weapons across the Libyan-Tunisian border. Tunisian security forces detained
more than thirty suspected militants since the government extended a nationwide state of emergency last week. Tunisian
security forces clashed with smugglers near the Libyan border three times since July 21, provoking villagers to riot after the
death of a smuggler.
Outlook: Popular unrest and ISIS recruitment may accelerate in the marginalized Tunisian interior due to the crackdown on
smuggling, which is the main source of economic activity in Tunisia’s impoverished regions.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)
Salafi-jihadi groups are co-opting local grievances in central Mali to attack Malian military and government targets. AQIM,
Ansar al Din, and a secular militia group associated with the Fulani tribe conducted a large-scale assault on a military base
in the Segou region of central Mali. Fighting broke out between signees to the 2015 Mali Peace Accord for control of Kidal
city in northern Mali. This outbreak of violence is the first test of the new MINUSMA mandate, which approved expanded
responsibilities for UN peacekeepers on June 29.
Outlook: AQIM affiliates will coordinate attacks in central Mali while security forces concentrate on curbing the violence in
northern Mali.
WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

11. 11
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB
1
3
2 4
1) 19 JUL: Tunisian
security forces
dismantled a
suspected Salafi-jihadi
cell in Kalaa Seghira,
Tunisia.
2) 20 JUL: The
Algerian People’s
National Army killed
one suspected militant
in Bouzeguene,
Algeria.
3) 21 JUL: Tunisian
border police clashed
with smugglers on the
Tunisian-Libyan
border near Ben
Guerdane, Tunisia.
4) 22 JUL: Militants
detonated an IED in
the Jebel Samama
region, Tunisia.

12. 12
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA SAHEL
1
3
4
2
1) 19 JUL: Militants,
including elements
from AQIM and Ansar
al Din, raided a Malian
military base in
Nampala, Mali.
2) 20 JUL: Malian and
French forces secured
territory in Ansongo,
Mali as part of
Operation Etoile.
4) 22 JUL: A coalition
of ex-separatist
groups took control of
Kidal, Mali after
clashes with a pro-
government militia.
4) 15 JUL: Militants
with ties to AQIM
raided a CMA outpost
near Ber, Mali.

13. 13
ACRONYMS
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Pakistani Military (PakMil)
Possible military dimensions (PMD)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

14. 14
Katherine Zimmerman
research manager
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Paul Bucala
Iran analyst
paul.bucala@aei.org
(202) 888-6573
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Heather Malacaria
program manager
heather.malacaria@aei.org
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
emily.estelle@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
Caitlin Pendleton
Iran analyst
caitlin.pendleton@aei.org
(202) 888-6577
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
fkagan@aei.org
(202) 888-6569

15. 1515
al Qaeda Team Analysts
Katherine Zimmerman
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda Team Interns
Alix Halloran
Kristen Johnson
Nick Jonsson
Colin Lahiff
Sarah Lossing
Bailey Palmer
Dan Toubman
Iran Team Analysts
Paul Bucala
Marie Donovan
Caitlin Pendleton
Iran Team Interns
Shayan Enferadi
Communications & Technology Interns
Margot Grubert
Ikaasa Suri
Research Teams