On August 8, 2018, the reimplementation of U.S. sanctions against Iran is expected to fuel economic protests that hardliners may leverage to challenge President Rouhani. Al-Qaeda's leadership is increasingly focusing on East Africa, highlighting al-Shabaab's role in promoting jihad in the region. Meanwhile, tensions between Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen are rising, but significant escalations are unlikely due to differing local engagement strategies.

1. 1
Threat Update: August 8, 2018
Iran
Iranian hardliners will use the reimplementation of U.S. sanctions
lifted under the nuclear deal and the continuation of economic
protests as political fodder to advance efforts to impeach President
Hassan Rouhani. The August 7 reimplementation of U.S. sanctions may
spark large economically-focused protests throughout Iran. Regime
hardliners capitalized on the merchant-class protests in late June in
order to push for changes in the Rouhani administration.
Al Qaeda
Network
Al Qaeda senior leadership is elevating the importance of East
Africa in its strategic communications. Al Qaeda emir Ayman al
Zawahiri emphasized al Shabaab’s role in expanding the East African
Salafi-jihadi movement in a video released ahead of the
20th anniversary of the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya
and Tanzania. The film featured al Shabaab propagandists discussing
the potential for jihad to unify East Africans, not just Somalis.
Yemen
Differences in AQAP’s and ISIS’s approaches on the ground in
Yemen generated friction between the groups that is unlikely to
escalate significantly. AQAP and ISIS criticized each other in a series
of propaganda pieces following minor clashes in central Yemen on July
10. ISIS is unlikely to overtake AQAP in Yemen because ISIS rejects the
practice of following local customs.

2. 2Mike Saidi and Nicholas Carl
Currency crisis spurs protests and changes
in political leadershipIran
Economic Protests July 30 – August 6
25 JUL: Central Bank of Iran
(CBI) head Valiollah Seif resigned.
31 JUL: Planning and Budgeting Organization
head Mohammad Bagher Nobakht resigned as
government spokesperson.
2
1
Present

3. Al Qaeda
Network
3Emily Estelle
Al Qaeda strategic communications
emphasize East Africa
18 MAR 2018: Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri
called on East African Muslims to wage jihad
against apostates and corrupt leaders.
1
02 AUG 2018: Zawahiri emphasized al Qaeda’s relationship with al
Shabaab and framed East Africa as a foundation for jihad in a video
released days before the 20th anniversary of the 1998 embassy
bombings. The video featured clips from al Shabaab’s media
organization, signaling propaganda cooperation between al
Shabaab and al Qaeda leadership. Al Shabaab members in the
video emphasized the group’s role throughout East Africa.
2
Present

4. Yemen
4Maher Farrukh
AQAP and ISIS escalate rhetoric after clashing
in central Yemen
06 AUG: An alleged AQAP defector
criticized AQAP for allowing shari’a
violations and urged AQAP
members to defect to ISIS.
12 JUL: An al Qaeda-linked media
group reported that AQAP attacked
ISIS positions after ISIS allegedly
killed AQAP members.
15 JUL: ISIS released footage of captured
AQAP militants, denying that ISIS killed the
AQAP members and blaming AQAP for
instigating the clashes.
04 AUG: AQAP formally blamed
ISIS for instigating the clashes and
criticized ISIS for not doing more
to fight al Houthi forces.
4
1
3
2
Present

5. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISGS: ISIS in the Greater Sahara
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
ISWA: ISIS West Africa Province
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
5

6. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
6
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Jake Barnett
Iran Analysts
Mike Saidi
Nicholas Carl
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly