Iran may have approved an Israeli-Russian agreement to remove Iranian forces from southwestern Syria while seeking to address U.S. and European concerns over its regional activities. In Yemen, pressure on the Houthis is increasing due to an Emirati-backed advance towards al Hudaydah port, with the UN proposing its administration to prevent conflict. Additionally, salafi-jihadi groups are intensifying attacks in the Mali-Burkina Faso border region, and ISIS is regaining strength in central Libya, threatening oil production.

1. 1
Threat Update: June 5, 2018
Tehran may have surreptitiously approved an Israeli-Russian agreement
geared at expelling Iranian and Iranian-backed forces from
southwestern Syria. Iran seeks to conciliate U.S. and European concerns
over Iran’s regional activities in order to elicit European assurances
during the ongoing negotiations over the nuclear deal. Russian
Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya confirmed the
agreement on June 1 after Iranian and Israeli officials reportedly conducted
“indirect negotiations” in late May regarding Iranian activities in southern
Syria.
Iran
Yemen
An Emirati-backed advance up Yemen's Red Sea coast has increased
pressure on the al Houthis and mobilized the UN to attempt to avoid
a direct contest over al Hudaydah port city. The UN Special Envoy to
Yemen proposed transferring the port to the UN’s administration to the al
Houthis as a preventative measure. Emirati officials have sought U.S.
military support and pledged not to proceed into the city without U.S.
backing. Emirati-backed forces will likely resume the offensive
should the al Houthis retain control of the port city.

2. 2
Threat Update: June 5, 2018
Salafi-jihadi groups are weakening local government and religious
leadership networks in the Malian-Burkinabe border region. Militants
have killed or abducted local officials, religious leaders, and community
notables with heightened frequency since the end of April 2018. Salafi-
jihadi groups may attempt to replace local governance structures with
their own administration in order to build their vision of an Islamic state.
Sahel
Morocco
Moroccan anti-government protests are gaining broader support but will
not threaten the stability of the government in the near term. The
government has failed to respond to a nationwide boycott against
Moroccan businesses linked to the palace. The boycott has revitalized
protests in a marginalized region of northern Morocco that the
government has attempted to quell several times since 2016.
ISIS is regaining strength in central Libya and may destabilize a key
oil-producing region. ISIS has escalated attacks against security
checkpoints in the past three months, indicating that it may be attempting to
disrupt oil production and re-establish positions near its former stronghold in
Sirte city. ISIS’s campaign exploits security gaps exacerbated by the Libyan
National Army’s campaign to seize Derna city in the northeast.
Libya

3. Yemen
3Maher Farrukh
UN attempts to prevent offensive on al
Hudaydah port
24-28 MAY: Emirati-backed
Yemeni forces seized 30 miles of
the main coastal road leading to al
Hudaydah port.
1
30 MAY: Emirati-backed Yemeni
forces attacked al Houthi forces
four miles from al Hudaydah airport.
2
02-03 JUN: UN Special Envoy to
Yemen Martin Griffiths proposed
placing al Hudaydah port under UN
administration during meetings with
al Houthi officials in Sana’a.
3
03 JUN: Emirati officials requested
U.S. assistance to seize al
Hudaydah and pledged not to attack
the port without American backing.
4

4. Libya
4
ISIS disrupts the Libyan oil crescent as the LNA
concentrates on the east
Wiam Aimade
1. 30 MAR: ISIS Wilayat Barqah
detonated an SVBIED on LNA forces
near the Salama checkpoint.
2. 08 MAY: ISIS conducted an
SVBIED attack on the LNA’s
checkpoint 90.
3. 22 MAY: ISIS conducted an
SVBIED attack on the LNA’s
checkpoint 60.
4. 22 MAY: ISIS militants attacked
LNA forces in Ajdabiya.
5. 02 JUN: ISIS militants attacked a
police station in al Qanan.
Salama checkpoint
Al Qanan
Checkpoint 60
Ajdabiya
Checkpoint 90
Toward Sirte
LNA forces
advance toward al
Sahel al Sharqi
and hotel Bab
Derna
LNA forces
advance toward
and seize Western
al Shiha
02-04 JUN: LNA forces make significant advances toward
residential areas in Derna
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
4
5

5. Maghreb
5Wiam Aimade
Nationwide boycott revives protests in
northern Morocco
d Nador sablanca
strike trike
1. 02 JUN: Miners deaths caused Hirak protests in 2017. Another death may cause an
escalation in the current protests in light of the government’s lack of response.
2. 23 MAY: Police forces often raid Imzouren and al Hoceima, where the first Hirak
protests started in late 2016.
1 rada
2
Present

6. Sahel
6
Salafi-jihadi groups target community leaders
in Malian-Burkinabe border area
Reilly Andreasen
1
2
3
4
5
1. 25 APR: Suspected JNIM militants
abducted the sub-prefect of Hombori, Mali.
2. 14 MAY: Militants killed the prefect of
Oursi, Burkina Faso and set fire to his home.
3. 20 MAY: Suspected JNIM or Macina
Liberation Front militants abducted a Catholic
leader and his wife in Basnere, Burkina Faso.
4. 26 MAY: Ansar al Islam militants killed a
village chief, his son, and a militiaman in
Niafo, Burkina Faso. They also kidnapped a
local medicine man.
5. 04 JUN: Ansar al Islam militants abducted
a local pastor and his family in Arbinda,
Burkina Faso.
BURKINA FASO
MALI
NIGER
Hombori
Oursi
Basnere
Niafo
Arbinda

7. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
7

8. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
8
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
Nicholas Carl
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly