Pinebridge 2020 第一季展望

1. December
2019
2020 1

2. I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.

3. I.

4. PAGE 3
MSCI ACWI S&P 500 ICE 600 MSCI
MSCI 300 SENSEX MSCI BOVESPA MSCI RTSI
-
- - -
- -
Bloomberg 2019/11/19
12.2
3.6
4.8
9.5
20.2
10.9
35.8
19.8
20.5
31.1
13.6
20.1
19.9
16.1
24.5
8.2
3.0
3.1
8.1
13.2
9.1
16.4
11.1
6.4
4.1
13.5
8.5
7.3
1.7
6.7
3 % %
12.0
10.4
10.7
9.7
11.4
11.8
11.7
12.3
10.2
11.7
9.4
8.6
8.6
7.3
2.4
0.4
0.8
2.3
3.3
0.7
1.8
-0.2
2.0
1.6
1.4
-0.4
0.1
-0.7
-
-
3 % %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg 2019/11/19
-2.7
8.4
-3.1
-7.5
-2.1
0.1
-3.2
-3.1
1.3
1.0
-3.4
1.7
4.8
4.8
-0.2
-2.9
0.3
2.7
-0.7
0.9
6.6
-1.7
0.0
-0.5
3 % %
-1.5
14.8
13.2
21.6
4.3
1.7
-1.6
2.0
-1.8
3.7
LME
CRB
3 % %

6. PAGE 5
•
•
•
•
•

7. II.

8. PAGE 7
• 3 GDP IMF 2019
3.0%
•
IMF 2019/10
(IMF )
3.8%
3.6%
3.0%
( 0.2%)
3.4%
( 0.1%)
2.5%
2.3%
1.7%
( 0.2%) 1.7%
4.8%
4.5%
3.9%
( 0.2%)
4.6%
( 0.1%)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2017 2018 2019 ( ) 2020 ( )

9. PAGE 8
• Q3 2020 2.0%
• 2020
Bloomberg 2019/11/19
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) 2.0% (2019/9)
45
50
55
60
65
2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3 2019/9
PMI 48.3 (2019/10) PMI 54.7 (2019/10)
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI 1.8% (2019/10) CPI 2.3% (2019/10)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
3.6% (2019/10)

10. PAGE 9
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
( ) 1.75% (2019/11/19)
• 3
•
Bloomberg PineBridge Investments 2019/11/19 2019/11/29
2020 1 2020 2
1.75% 1.75%
Refreshed

11. PAGE 10
Bloomberg PineBridge Investments 2019/11/19
•
• 2020 1.1%
45
50
55
60
65
2016/11 2017/5 2017/11 2018/5 2018/11 2019/5
PMI 45.9 (2019/10) PMI 52.2 (2019/10)
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) 1.2% (2019/9)
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI 0.7% (2019/10) CPI 1.1% (2019/10)
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
7.5% (2019/9)

12. PAGE 11
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
0.0% (2019/11/19)
• 10 2019 11
• Lagarde Draghi
Bloomberg 2019/11/19
2020 1 2020 2
-0.5% -0.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2019/10 2019/11
2020 3 ( ) 11.9% (2019/11/19)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg PineBridge Investments 2019/11/19
• 10
• 12 26 2020
46
48
50
52
54
56
2016/10 2017/4 2017/10 2018/4 2018/10 2019/4 2019/10
PMI 48.4 (2019/10) PMI 49.7 (2019/10)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI 0.2% (2019/10) CPI 0.3% (2019/10)
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) 1.3% (2019/9)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2.4% (2019/9)

14. PAGE 13
-0.15%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-0.1% (2019/11/19)
• 10 2020 3 0.7% 1.0%
•
Bloomberg 2019/11/19
2020 1 2020 2
-0.2% -0.16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2019/10 2019/11
46.0% (2019/11/19)

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg 2019/11/19
• (PMI )
•
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) 5.0% (2019/9)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI 3.2% (2019/9)
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
2016/11 2017/5 2017/11 2018/5 2018/11 2019/5
PMI 51.0 (2019/10) PMI 51.8 (2019/10)
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4.9% (2019/9)

16. III.

17. PAGE 16
•
• ( )
Bloomberg 2019/11/19
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
10 1.783% (2019/11/19)
2 1.596% (2019/11/19)
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
10 -0.339% (2019/11/19)
2 -0.631% (2019/11/19)

18. PAGE 17
•
•
70bp
90bp
110bp
130bp
150bp
170bp
190bp
210bp
230bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
107bp (2019/11/19)
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2.89% (2019/11/19)
Bloomberg 2019/11/19
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/11/19 2019 2020
785
627
507
399
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2017 2018 2019 2020
( 10 )

19. PAGE 18
•
•
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5.78% (2019/11/19)
200bp
300bp
400bp
500bp
600bp
700bp
800bp
900bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
392bp (2019/11/19)
Bloomberg 2019/11/19
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/10/01
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(12 ) 2.68% (2019/9)

20. PAGE 19
•
• 5
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5.24% (2019/11/19)
200bp
250bp
300bp
350bp
400bp
450bp
500bp
550bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
335bp (2019/11/19)
Bloomberg 2019/11/19 (EMBI)
J.P. Morgan 2019/11/25 2019 2020
127
104 109
77
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2017 2018 2019 2020
( 10 )

21. PAGE 20
• ( )
• 5
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4.67% (2019/11/19)
150bp
200bp
250bp
300bp
350bp
400bp
450bp
500bp
550bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
293bp (2019/11/19)
Bloomberg 2019/11/19 (CEMBI)
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/10/01
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(12 ) 0.68% (2019/9)

22. PAGE 21
•
( ) 2020
• 5
150 bp
170 bp
190 bp
210 bp
230 bp
250 bp
270 bp
290 bp
310 bp
330 bp
350 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
200bp (2019/11/19)
Bloomberg 2019/11/19 (JACI)
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/10/01
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(12 ) 1.79% (2019/9)
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
3.80% (2019/11/19)

23. IV.

24. PAGE 23
•
2020
12
Bloomberg 2019/11/19 500
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
500 18.1 (2019/11/19)
5

25. PAGE 24
•
12
Bloomberg 2019/11/19 600
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
600 15.0 (2019/11/19)
5

26. PAGE 25
• 2019
12
Bloomberg 2019/11/19 300
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
300 10.9 (2019/11/19)
5

27. PAGE 26
• 2019
12
Bloomberg 2019/11/19 MSCI
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MSCI 20.3 (2019/11/19)
5

28. PAGE 27
•
12 2015 EPS 2015 2016 EPS
Bloomberg 2019/11/19 BOVESPA
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
BOVESPA 11.7 (2019/11/19)
5
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
( )

29. PAGE 28
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
2015
•
Bloomberg 2019/10/31 ICE
5.0%
5.2%
5.4%
5.6%
5.8%
6.0%
6.2%
6.4%

30. V.

31. PAGE 30
Bloomberg 2019/11/19
2020 1
• (01/11)
• (01/20-21)
• (01/23)
• (01/30)
• FOMC (01/30)
• (01/31)
2020 2
2020 3
• FOMC (03/19)
• (03/12)
• (03/18-19)
• (03/26)

32. VI.

33. PAGE 32
10
2020
2019/11
1

34. PAGE 33
2019/11
1

35. PAGE 34
2019/12
TR108248
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
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