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QLFS Q3:2018
Quarterly Labour
Force Survey
Q3:2018
Risenga Maluleke
Statistician-General
#StatsSA
QLFS Q3:2018
27,2%
27,5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SOUTH AFRICA’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE INCREASED BY 0,3 OF A PERCENTAGE
POINT TO 27,5% IN Q3 OF 2018. The unemployment rate has fluctuated between the
20% and 30% band for the last 10 years.
Unemployment rate from
Q1:2008 to Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
24,5
27,5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
22,8
27,5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Unemployment rate from
Q3:2008 to Q3:2018
27,7
27,5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS REMAINED STAGNANT YEAR ON YEAR. There has
been a 0,2 of a percentage point decrease between Q3:2017 and Q3:2018.
10 Years 5 Years 1 Year
Q3
2008
Q3
2018
Q3
2018
Q3
2018
Q3
2013
Q3
2017
QLFS Q3:2018
UnemployedEmployed
16,4 6,2
2,7
12,7
Other NEA
Not Economically Active
discouraged
workseekers
15,4 million
ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed
and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged
job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups.
Cannot be in two groups at the same time,
Labour force
22,6 million
38,0 million
People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds)
M
M
M
Employed Unemployed
South Africa’s
official
unemployment rate
stands at
27,5%
M
Increased by 0,3 ppt
between
Q2:2018 and Q3:2018
THE WORKING AGE POPULATION (15-64 YEARS) IN Q3:2018 WAS 38,0 MILLION
QLFS Q3:2018
2008
+65 000 q/q
+ 92 000 q/q
+ 127 000 q/q
Other Not Economically
Active
Unemployed
Employed
LabourForce
-131 000 q/q
Discouraged work
seekers
NotEconomically
Active
THERE WAS AN INCREASE OF 153 000 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE IN SOUTH
AFRICA (15 – 64 YEAR OLDS) BETWEEN Q2:2018 AND Q3:2018
Labour market indicators between
Q1:2008 and Q3:2018
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan-Mar
Jul-Sep
Jan-Mar
Jul-Sep
Jan-Mar
Jul-Sep
Jan-Mar
Jul-Sep
Jan-Mar
Jul-Sep
Jan-Mar
Jul-Sep
Jan-Mar
Jul-Sep
Jan-Mar
Jul-Sep
Jan-Mar
Jul-Sep
Jan-Mar
Jul-Sep
Jan-Mar
Jul-Sep
2018
Changes between Q2:2018 and
Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
EMPLOYMENT
&
LABOUR MARKET RATES
QLFS
Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYED PERSONS INCREASED BY 92 000 TO 16,4 MILLION IN
Q3:2018
Number of employed
From Q3:2008 to Q3:2018
The number of employed people
increased from 14,5 million in
Q3:2008 to 16,4 million in Q3:2018
14,5
16,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
15,0
16,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
16,2
16,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
10 Years 5 Years 1 Year
The number of employed people
increased from 16,2 million in
Q3:2017 to 16,4 million in
Q3:2018
Employment increased by about 1,4
million jobs from 15,0 million in
Q3:2013 to 16,4 million in Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
45,7%
43,1%
59,2%
59,5%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Labour force participation rate Employed / population ratio (Absorption)
THE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE INCREASED BY 0,4 OF A PERCENTAGE
POINT FROM 59,2% IN Q3:2008 TO 59,5% IN Q3:2018
Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age
population that is employed.
Labour force participation rate is the proportion of
the working-age population that is either employed
or unemployed.
13,5 % Points
difference 16,4
% Points difference
QLFS Q3:2018
71,0%
83,6%
48,8%
33,4%
16,9%
6,4%
29,4%
31,9%
85,4%
89,4%
69,1%
49,1%0,0
+1,0
-0,4
+0,3
+0,2
-0,2
+0,6
-0,4
+0,3
+0,7
+0,2
-0,2
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q2:2018 to Q3:2018
LABOUR MARKET RATES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON EDUCATION LEVEL
Labour market rates by
education level, Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
52,8%
34,0%
22,0%
16,1%
9,8%
27,5%
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
25,8%
74,3%
80,3%
74,4%
44,9%
59,5%
12,2%
49,1%
62,7%
62,5%
40,5%
43,1%
+0,1
0,0
+0,7
+0,3
-0,8
-0,2
+0,5
-0,9
0,0
+0,6
-0,2
+0,6
-0,4
+0,4
+0,7
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q2:2018 to Q3:2018
Labour market rates by age
group, Q3:2018
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THOSE AGED 25-34 IS DOUBLE THAT OF THE 45-54
YEAR OLDS.
QLFS Q3:2018
45,2%
27,7%
53,6%
54,9%
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
24,3%
9,4%
33,4%
40,1%
9,3%
3,9%
17,9%
23,2%-2,0
0,0
-2,9
+1,9
+0,6
+0,4
+0,6
-1,6
-0,3
+1,8
-0,5
+1,1
15 – 24 years 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years
Change: Percentage points
Q2:2018 to Q3:2018
Unemployment rate by education
level and age group, Q3:2018
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AMONG THE YOUTH IS HIGHER IRRESPECTIVE OF
EDUCATION LEVEL
QLFS Q3:2018
PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN
EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR
TRAINING
(NEET)
QLFS
Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
EducationWork
NEET
Those young people
(15-24 years) who are
categorised as NEET
are considered to be
disengaged from both
work and education.
Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total
youth-specific working-age population
?
NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET)
QLFS Q3:2018
27,6%
28,7%
33,0%
33,6%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
2017:Q3 2018:Q3
NEET (15-24 years) by sex
APPROXIMATELY 3,2 MILLION (31,1%) OUT OF 10,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED
15-24 YEARS WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET). The
overall NEET rate increased by 0,8 of a percentage point in Q3:2018 compared to Q3:2017.
FEMALE NEET
Up by 0,6 of a
percentage point
MALE NEET
Up by 1,1
percentage points
15-24 YEARS
QLFS Q3:2018
26,4%
27,1%
29,0%
29,7%
31,1%
32,8%
33,5%
34,3%
35,0%
35,8%
LP
WC
FS
GP
RSA
KZN
MP
NW
EC
NC
(+1,0)
(-5,0)
(-2,2)
(+3,9)
(+1,2)
(+0,8)
(+1,4)
(-1,4)
(-0,3)
(+1,5)
( ) Y/Y Change
Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year
Change Q3:2017 – Q3:2018)
ALTHOUGH NC RECORDED THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24
YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING, THIS IS 5 PERCENTAGE
POINTS LOWER THAN Q3:2017.
QLFS Q3:2018
34,3%
35,1%
42,4% 43,0%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2017 Q3 2018 Q3
FEMALE NEET
MALE NEET
NEET (15-34 years) by sex
APPROXIMATELY 7,9 MILLION (39,0%) OUT OF 20,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED
15-34 YEARS, WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET).
The overall NEET rate increased by 0,7 of a percentage point y/y.
Female NEET
Up by 0,6 of a
percentage point
Male NEET
Up by 0,8 of a
percentage point
15-34 YEARS
QLFS Q3:2018
Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year
Change Q3:2017 – Q3:2018)
THE EC PROVINCE HAD THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34
YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING AT 45,2%. The rate
increased by 2,4 percentage points year-on-year.
30,7%
36,7%
36,9%
38,1%
39,0%
40,7%
41,3%
42,0%
42,2%
45,2%
WC
GP
LP
FS
RSA
MP
NW
KZN
NC
EC
( ) Y/Y Change
(+2,4)
(-4,0)
(+0,9)
(-1,7)
(+1,6)
(+0,7)
(+1,5)
(+1,5)
(+1,1)
(-1,7)
QLFS Q3:2018
EMPLOYMENT
QLFS
Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
65 000 1 000
Agriculture
Private
households
Formal Sector
(Non agricultural)
Informal Sector
(Non agricultural)
30 000
(11,3 million jobs) (3,0 million jobs) (1,3 million jobs)(842 000 jobs)
increased bydecreased by decreased by decreased by
THE NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED GREW BY 92 000 IN Q3:2018 TO 16,4
MILLION.
Q/Q Q/QQ/Q Q/Q
188 000
QLFS Q3:2018
Other
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Services
Employment shares, Q3:2018
0,1%
1,0%
2,5%
5,1%
6,1%
7,7%
9,2%
10,5%
15,3%
20,2%
22,4%
Share of
Nominal
GDP
(Q2:2018)
24%
15%
20%
13%
4%
9%
4%
7%
4%
CONSTRUCTION, TRADE AND AGRICULTURE HAVE HIGHER EMPLOYMENT
SHARES RELATIVE TO THEIR GDP CONTRIBUTION
Employment and GDP share
per industry
QLFS Q3:2018
-30
-29
-25
-18
-17
-5
-1
27
86
102
Private households
Mining
Manufacturing
Transport
Community and social services
Utilities
Agriculture
Construction
Trade
Finance
Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000)
-46
-40
-30
3
8
20
32
38
59
137
Private households
Mining
Manufacturing
Utilities
Transport
Trade
Agriculture
Finance
Community and social services
Construction
Year-on-year change (‘000)
THE BIGGEST QUARTER-ON-QUARTER EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE RECORDED
IN FINANCE, TRADE AND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIES
Employment changes by
industry
QLFS Q3:2018
102 000
Mainly driven by gains in:
 Other business
activities.
 Financial intermediation
 Insurance and pension
funding
Finance ConstructionTrade
Mainly driven by gains in:
 Building of complete
construction
Mainly driven by gains in:
 Sales and repairs
 Retail trade
27 00086 000
Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q
EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE FINANCE, TRADE AND
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIES
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Gains
R
QLFS Q3:2018
- 30 000
Q/Q Q/Q
- 25 000
Q/Q
Private households ManufacturingMining
Mainly driven by losses in:
Manufacturing of:
 Food, food products, beverages
and tobacco products
 Textile, clothing and leather
goods
 Transport equipment
Mainly driven by losses in:
 Gold and uranium ore
 Mining and quarrying NEC
 Non-ferrous metal ores
- 29 000
EMPLOYMENT LOSSES WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE MANUFACTURING, PRIVATE
HOUSEHOLD AND MINING INDUSTRIES
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Losses
QLFS Q3:2018
0,4%
5,8%
6,0%
8,4%
8,5%
8,7%
10,3%
12,3%
16,2%
23,3%
Skilled agriculture
Professional
Domestic worker
Plant and machine…
Technician
Manager
Clerk
Craft and related trade
Sales and services
Elementary
Elementary and domestic work
occupations
Employment share by
occupation, Q3:2018
CLOSE TO A THIRD (29,3%) OF ALL PEOPLE EMPLOYED IN Q3:2018 WERE
EMPLOYED IN ELEMENTARY AND DOMESTIC WORK OCCUPATIONS
QLFS Q3:2018
2,3M
3,0M
10,1M
11,3M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Million
Informal sector employment
Formal sector employment
Informal sector employment has increased from
2,3 million in Q3:2008 to 3,0 million in Q3:2018
Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend,
increasing from 10,1 million in Q3:2008 to 11,3 million
in Q3:2018
THE FORMAL SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA ACCOUNTS FOR 68,7% OF TOTAL
EMPLOYMENT
Q3:2008 Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
UNEMPLOYMENT
QLFS
Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
4,3M
6,2M
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
31,2%68,8%
Long Term Unemployed*
Short Term Unemployed
40,6%59,4%
Q3
2008
Q3
2018
THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE IN SOUTH AFRICA INCREASED FROM
4,3 MILLION IN Q3:2008 TO 6,2 MILLION IN Q3:2018. The proportion of those in long-term
unemployment increased from 59,4% in Q3:2008 to 68,8% in Q3:2018
* Unemployed for a year or longer
Number of unemployed
Number of unemployed for one
year or longer
QLFS Q3:2018
23,2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
30,9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
6,2 million
people were unemployed in Q3:2018
An increase of 127 000 q/q
9,8 million
people were unemployed in Q3:2018
An increase of 125 000 q/q
29,4%
25,9%
SA: 27,5%
41,2%
33,9%
SA: 37,3%
Expanded Definition includes the following
- Official unemployment (searched and available)6,2 M
- Available to work but are/or
• Discouraged work-seekers 2,7 M
• Have other reasons for not searching 0,8 M
Official Unemployment Rate
27,5% (+0,3 % Point Change Q/Q)
Expanded Unemployment Rate
37,3% (+0,1 % Point Change Q/Q)
Q3:2018
Q3:2018
QLFS Q3: 2018
8,0%
10,4%
23,3%
30,5%
27,2%
7,1%
10,1%
21,8%
31,1%
27,5%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black
African
Both sexes
Unemployment Rate
by Population Group
Q3:2018 Q2:2018
8,5%
9,4%
23,6%
28,2%
25,3%
7,1%
9,1%
21,6%
29,3%
25,9%
Male Unemployment Rate
By Population Group
Q3:2018 Q2:2018
Black women are the most vulnerable
with unemployment rate of over 30%.
7,4%
12,2%
22,9%
33,2%
29,5%
7,1%
11,9%
21,9%
33,3%
29,4%
Female Unemployment Rate
by Population Group
Q3:2018 Q2:2018
OFFICIAL unemployment rate
by population group and sex
BLACK WOMEN ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE WITH AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF
OVER 30%.
QLFS Q3:2018
11,7%
16,4%
27,7%
41,5%
37,2%
9,3%
17,5%
27,6%
41,8%
37,3%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black
African
Both sexes
Expanded unemployment
rate by population group
Q3:2018 Q2:2018
11,0%
13,4%
27,4%
37,6%
33,7%
9,1%
15,0%
26,1%
38,1%
33,9%
Male expanded
unemployment rate
Q3:2018 Q2:2018
12,5%
21,4%
28,1%
45,8%
41,2%
9,5%
21,6%
29,3%
45,9%
41,2%
Female expanded unemployment
rate
Q3:2018 Q2:2018
IRRESPECTIVE OF SEX, THE BLACK AFRICAN AND COLOURED POPULATION
GROUPS REMAIN VULNERABLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET
EXPANDED unemployment rate by
population group and sex
QLFS Q3:2018
18,9%
20,4%
23,0%
27,0%
27,5%
28,0%
29,6%
32,5%
35,6%
36,3%
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0
Limpopo
Western Cape
KwaZulu Natal
Northern Cape
South Africa
North West
Gauteng
Mpumalanga
Eastern Cape
Free State
(-0,3)
(+1,4)
(-1,9)
(-0,1)
(-0,4)
(+1,2)
(+1,9)
(-0,7)
(+0,3)
( ) Q/Q Change
(+1,9)
Provincial unemployment rate:
Official Q3:2018
FIVE OUT OF NINE PROVINCES SHOWED DECREASES IN THEIR UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE BETWEEN Q2:2018 AND Q3:2018 (MP, GP, NC, WC AND LP)
QLFS Q3:2018
38,1%
23,7%
41,2%
40,1%
37,3%
43,9%
34,3%
41,3%
46,0%
41,5%
18,9%
20,4%
23,0%
27,0%
27,5%
28,0%
29,6%
32,5%
35,6%
36,3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Limpopo
Western Cape
KwaZulu-Natal
Northern Cape
South Africa
North West
Gauteng
Mpumalanga
Eastern Cape
Free State
15,9% points difference
19,2% points difference
18,2% points difference
13,1% points difference
Official Expanded
FS HAS THE HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BASED ON THE OFFICIAL DEFINITION
OF UNEMPLOYMENT. EC recorded the highest expanded unemployment rate while LP, KZN, NW and
NC provinces all have more than 13% points difference between their expanded and official unemployment
rates
Provincial unemployment rate:
Official vs Expanded Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
UNDERSTANDING
NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE
(NEA)
QLFS
Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
Student
40,6%
Discouraged work
seekers
17,8%
Home-maker
16,6%
Illness/disability; 10,2%
Too old/young to work; 9,1%
Q2:2018 to Q3:2018
% Change5 main reasons for NEA
NEA
M
M
M
M
15,4 M
Quarter-on-quarter changes
Thousand
Student 32
Homemaker -16
Illness/disability 68
Too young/too old to work -49
Discouraged work seekers -131
Other 30
Down 0,3 of
a % Point
Up 0,5 %
Point
Q2:2018 to Q3:2018
Change in levels
Down 0,8 of
a % Point
Up 0,4 of a
% Point
No change
15,4 MILLION PEOPLE AGED 15 – 64 YEARS WERE NOT ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE. This
is a decrease of 66 000 q/q
Reasons why – Not economically
active (NEA)
QLFS Q3:2018
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
EMPLOYMENT
GAINS
EMPLOYMENT
LOSSES
NOT IN
EMPLOYMENT,
EDUCATION AND
TRAINING
Unemployment rate
increased by 0,3 of a
% point to 27,5% .
Absorption rate remained
unchanged while labour
force participation rate
increased 0,4 of a
percentage point
Employment gains were
only recorded in
Finance (102 000),
Trade (86 000) and
Construction (27 000)
Largest employment
losses were observed in
Private households
(30 000), Mining
(29 000), and
Manufacturing (25 000)
Of the 10,3 million
persons aged 15-24
years, 31,1% were
not in employment,
education or
training.
Recap
Q3:2018
QLFS Q3:2018
THANK YOU
QLFS
Q3:2018

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  • 1. QLFS Q3:2018 Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q3:2018 Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General #StatsSA
  • 2. QLFS Q3:2018 27,2% 27,5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SOUTH AFRICA’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE INCREASED BY 0,3 OF A PERCENTAGE POINT TO 27,5% IN Q3 OF 2018. The unemployment rate has fluctuated between the 20% and 30% band for the last 10 years. Unemployment rate from Q1:2008 to Q3:2018
  • 3. QLFS Q3:2018 24,5 27,5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 22,8 27,5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Unemployment rate from Q3:2008 to Q3:2018 27,7 27,5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS REMAINED STAGNANT YEAR ON YEAR. There has been a 0,2 of a percentage point decrease between Q3:2017 and Q3:2018. 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year Q3 2008 Q3 2018 Q3 2018 Q3 2018 Q3 2013 Q3 2017
  • 4. QLFS Q3:2018 UnemployedEmployed 16,4 6,2 2,7 12,7 Other NEA Not Economically Active discouraged workseekers 15,4 million ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time, Labour force 22,6 million 38,0 million People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) M M M Employed Unemployed South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at 27,5% M Increased by 0,3 ppt between Q2:2018 and Q3:2018 THE WORKING AGE POPULATION (15-64 YEARS) IN Q3:2018 WAS 38,0 MILLION
  • 5. QLFS Q3:2018 2008 +65 000 q/q + 92 000 q/q + 127 000 q/q Other Not Economically Active Unemployed Employed LabourForce -131 000 q/q Discouraged work seekers NotEconomically Active THERE WAS AN INCREASE OF 153 000 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE IN SOUTH AFRICA (15 – 64 YEAR OLDS) BETWEEN Q2:2018 AND Q3:2018 Labour market indicators between Q1:2008 and Q3:2018 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jan-Mar Jul-Sep Jan-Mar Jul-Sep Jan-Mar Jul-Sep Jan-Mar Jul-Sep Jan-Mar Jul-Sep Jan-Mar Jul-Sep Jan-Mar Jul-Sep Jan-Mar Jul-Sep Jan-Mar Jul-Sep Jan-Mar Jul-Sep Jan-Mar Jul-Sep 2018 Changes between Q2:2018 and Q3:2018
  • 7. QLFS Q3:2018 THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYED PERSONS INCREASED BY 92 000 TO 16,4 MILLION IN Q3:2018 Number of employed From Q3:2008 to Q3:2018 The number of employed people increased from 14,5 million in Q3:2008 to 16,4 million in Q3:2018 14,5 16,4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million 15,0 16,4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million 16,2 16,4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year The number of employed people increased from 16,2 million in Q3:2017 to 16,4 million in Q3:2018 Employment increased by about 1,4 million jobs from 15,0 million in Q3:2013 to 16,4 million in Q3:2018
  • 8. QLFS Q3:2018 45,7% 43,1% 59,2% 59,5% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Labour force participation rate Employed / population ratio (Absorption) THE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE INCREASED BY 0,4 OF A PERCENTAGE POINT FROM 59,2% IN Q3:2008 TO 59,5% IN Q3:2018 Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed. Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed. 13,5 % Points difference 16,4 % Points difference
  • 9. QLFS Q3:2018 71,0% 83,6% 48,8% 33,4% 16,9% 6,4% 29,4% 31,9% 85,4% 89,4% 69,1% 49,1%0,0 +1,0 -0,4 +0,3 +0,2 -0,2 +0,6 -0,4 +0,3 +0,7 +0,2 -0,2 Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate Change: Percentage points Q2:2018 to Q3:2018 LABOUR MARKET RATES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON EDUCATION LEVEL Labour market rates by education level, Q3:2018
  • 10. QLFS Q3:2018 52,8% 34,0% 22,0% 16,1% 9,8% 27,5% 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs 25,8% 74,3% 80,3% 74,4% 44,9% 59,5% 12,2% 49,1% 62,7% 62,5% 40,5% 43,1% +0,1 0,0 +0,7 +0,3 -0,8 -0,2 +0,5 -0,9 0,0 +0,6 -0,2 +0,6 -0,4 +0,4 +0,7 Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate Change: Percentage points Q2:2018 to Q3:2018 Labour market rates by age group, Q3:2018 THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THOSE AGED 25-34 IS DOUBLE THAT OF THE 45-54 YEAR OLDS.
  • 11. QLFS Q3:2018 45,2% 27,7% 53,6% 54,9% Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total 24,3% 9,4% 33,4% 40,1% 9,3% 3,9% 17,9% 23,2%-2,0 0,0 -2,9 +1,9 +0,6 +0,4 +0,6 -1,6 -0,3 +1,8 -0,5 +1,1 15 – 24 years 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years Change: Percentage points Q2:2018 to Q3:2018 Unemployment rate by education level and age group, Q3:2018 THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AMONG THE YOUTH IS HIGHER IRRESPECTIVE OF EDUCATION LEVEL
  • 12. QLFS Q3:2018 PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET) QLFS Q3:2018
  • 13. QLFS Q3:2018 EducationWork NEET Those young people (15-24 years) who are categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population ? NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET)
  • 14. QLFS Q3:2018 27,6% 28,7% 33,0% 33,6% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 2017:Q3 2018:Q3 NEET (15-24 years) by sex APPROXIMATELY 3,2 MILLION (31,1%) OUT OF 10,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24 YEARS WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 0,8 of a percentage point in Q3:2018 compared to Q3:2017. FEMALE NEET Up by 0,6 of a percentage point MALE NEET Up by 1,1 percentage points 15-24 YEARS
  • 15. QLFS Q3:2018 26,4% 27,1% 29,0% 29,7% 31,1% 32,8% 33,5% 34,3% 35,0% 35,8% LP WC FS GP RSA KZN MP NW EC NC (+1,0) (-5,0) (-2,2) (+3,9) (+1,2) (+0,8) (+1,4) (-1,4) (-0,3) (+1,5) ( ) Y/Y Change Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q3:2017 – Q3:2018) ALTHOUGH NC RECORDED THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24 YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING, THIS IS 5 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN Q3:2017.
  • 16. QLFS Q3:2018 34,3% 35,1% 42,4% 43,0% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 FEMALE NEET MALE NEET NEET (15-34 years) by sex APPROXIMATELY 7,9 MILLION (39,0%) OUT OF 20,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34 YEARS, WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 0,7 of a percentage point y/y. Female NEET Up by 0,6 of a percentage point Male NEET Up by 0,8 of a percentage point 15-34 YEARS
  • 17. QLFS Q3:2018 Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year Change Q3:2017 – Q3:2018) THE EC PROVINCE HAD THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34 YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING AT 45,2%. The rate increased by 2,4 percentage points year-on-year. 30,7% 36,7% 36,9% 38,1% 39,0% 40,7% 41,3% 42,0% 42,2% 45,2% WC GP LP FS RSA MP NW KZN NC EC ( ) Y/Y Change (+2,4) (-4,0) (+0,9) (-1,7) (+1,6) (+0,7) (+1,5) (+1,5) (+1,1) (-1,7)
  • 19. QLFS Q3:2018 65 000 1 000 Agriculture Private households Formal Sector (Non agricultural) Informal Sector (Non agricultural) 30 000 (11,3 million jobs) (3,0 million jobs) (1,3 million jobs)(842 000 jobs) increased bydecreased by decreased by decreased by THE NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED GREW BY 92 000 IN Q3:2018 TO 16,4 MILLION. Q/Q Q/QQ/Q Q/Q 188 000
  • 20. QLFS Q3:2018 Other Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Services Employment shares, Q3:2018 0,1% 1,0% 2,5% 5,1% 6,1% 7,7% 9,2% 10,5% 15,3% 20,2% 22,4% Share of Nominal GDP (Q2:2018) 24% 15% 20% 13% 4% 9% 4% 7% 4% CONSTRUCTION, TRADE AND AGRICULTURE HAVE HIGHER EMPLOYMENT SHARES RELATIVE TO THEIR GDP CONTRIBUTION Employment and GDP share per industry
  • 21. QLFS Q3:2018 -30 -29 -25 -18 -17 -5 -1 27 86 102 Private households Mining Manufacturing Transport Community and social services Utilities Agriculture Construction Trade Finance Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000) -46 -40 -30 3 8 20 32 38 59 137 Private households Mining Manufacturing Utilities Transport Trade Agriculture Finance Community and social services Construction Year-on-year change (‘000) THE BIGGEST QUARTER-ON-QUARTER EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE RECORDED IN FINANCE, TRADE AND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIES Employment changes by industry
  • 22. QLFS Q3:2018 102 000 Mainly driven by gains in:  Other business activities.  Financial intermediation  Insurance and pension funding Finance ConstructionTrade Mainly driven by gains in:  Building of complete construction Mainly driven by gains in:  Sales and repairs  Retail trade 27 00086 000 Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE FINANCE, TRADE AND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIES Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Gains R
  • 23. QLFS Q3:2018 - 30 000 Q/Q Q/Q - 25 000 Q/Q Private households ManufacturingMining Mainly driven by losses in: Manufacturing of:  Food, food products, beverages and tobacco products  Textile, clothing and leather goods  Transport equipment Mainly driven by losses in:  Gold and uranium ore  Mining and quarrying NEC  Non-ferrous metal ores - 29 000 EMPLOYMENT LOSSES WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE MANUFACTURING, PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD AND MINING INDUSTRIES Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Losses
  • 24. QLFS Q3:2018 0,4% 5,8% 6,0% 8,4% 8,5% 8,7% 10,3% 12,3% 16,2% 23,3% Skilled agriculture Professional Domestic worker Plant and machine… Technician Manager Clerk Craft and related trade Sales and services Elementary Elementary and domestic work occupations Employment share by occupation, Q3:2018 CLOSE TO A THIRD (29,3%) OF ALL PEOPLE EMPLOYED IN Q3:2018 WERE EMPLOYED IN ELEMENTARY AND DOMESTIC WORK OCCUPATIONS
  • 25. QLFS Q3:2018 2,3M 3,0M 10,1M 11,3M 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Million Informal sector employment Formal sector employment Informal sector employment has increased from 2,3 million in Q3:2008 to 3,0 million in Q3:2018 Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend, increasing from 10,1 million in Q3:2008 to 11,3 million in Q3:2018 THE FORMAL SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA ACCOUNTS FOR 68,7% OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Q3:2008 Q3:2018
  • 27. QLFS Q3:2018 4,3M 6,2M 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 31,2%68,8% Long Term Unemployed* Short Term Unemployed 40,6%59,4% Q3 2008 Q3 2018 THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE IN SOUTH AFRICA INCREASED FROM 4,3 MILLION IN Q3:2008 TO 6,2 MILLION IN Q3:2018. The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 59,4% in Q3:2008 to 68,8% in Q3:2018 * Unemployed for a year or longer Number of unemployed Number of unemployed for one year or longer
  • 28. QLFS Q3:2018 23,2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 30,9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 6,2 million people were unemployed in Q3:2018 An increase of 127 000 q/q 9,8 million people were unemployed in Q3:2018 An increase of 125 000 q/q 29,4% 25,9% SA: 27,5% 41,2% 33,9% SA: 37,3% Expanded Definition includes the following - Official unemployment (searched and available)6,2 M - Available to work but are/or • Discouraged work-seekers 2,7 M • Have other reasons for not searching 0,8 M Official Unemployment Rate 27,5% (+0,3 % Point Change Q/Q) Expanded Unemployment Rate 37,3% (+0,1 % Point Change Q/Q) Q3:2018 Q3:2018
  • 29. QLFS Q3: 2018 8,0% 10,4% 23,3% 30,5% 27,2% 7,1% 10,1% 21,8% 31,1% 27,5% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes Unemployment Rate by Population Group Q3:2018 Q2:2018 8,5% 9,4% 23,6% 28,2% 25,3% 7,1% 9,1% 21,6% 29,3% 25,9% Male Unemployment Rate By Population Group Q3:2018 Q2:2018 Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%. 7,4% 12,2% 22,9% 33,2% 29,5% 7,1% 11,9% 21,9% 33,3% 29,4% Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group Q3:2018 Q2:2018 OFFICIAL unemployment rate by population group and sex BLACK WOMEN ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE WITH AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF OVER 30%.
  • 30. QLFS Q3:2018 11,7% 16,4% 27,7% 41,5% 37,2% 9,3% 17,5% 27,6% 41,8% 37,3% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes Expanded unemployment rate by population group Q3:2018 Q2:2018 11,0% 13,4% 27,4% 37,6% 33,7% 9,1% 15,0% 26,1% 38,1% 33,9% Male expanded unemployment rate Q3:2018 Q2:2018 12,5% 21,4% 28,1% 45,8% 41,2% 9,5% 21,6% 29,3% 45,9% 41,2% Female expanded unemployment rate Q3:2018 Q2:2018 IRRESPECTIVE OF SEX, THE BLACK AFRICAN AND COLOURED POPULATION GROUPS REMAIN VULNERABLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET EXPANDED unemployment rate by population group and sex
  • 31. QLFS Q3:2018 18,9% 20,4% 23,0% 27,0% 27,5% 28,0% 29,6% 32,5% 35,6% 36,3% 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 Limpopo Western Cape KwaZulu Natal Northern Cape South Africa North West Gauteng Mpumalanga Eastern Cape Free State (-0,3) (+1,4) (-1,9) (-0,1) (-0,4) (+1,2) (+1,9) (-0,7) (+0,3) ( ) Q/Q Change (+1,9) Provincial unemployment rate: Official Q3:2018 FIVE OUT OF NINE PROVINCES SHOWED DECREASES IN THEIR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BETWEEN Q2:2018 AND Q3:2018 (MP, GP, NC, WC AND LP)
  • 32. QLFS Q3:2018 38,1% 23,7% 41,2% 40,1% 37,3% 43,9% 34,3% 41,3% 46,0% 41,5% 18,9% 20,4% 23,0% 27,0% 27,5% 28,0% 29,6% 32,5% 35,6% 36,3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Limpopo Western Cape KwaZulu-Natal Northern Cape South Africa North West Gauteng Mpumalanga Eastern Cape Free State 15,9% points difference 19,2% points difference 18,2% points difference 13,1% points difference Official Expanded FS HAS THE HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BASED ON THE OFFICIAL DEFINITION OF UNEMPLOYMENT. EC recorded the highest expanded unemployment rate while LP, KZN, NW and NC provinces all have more than 13% points difference between their expanded and official unemployment rates Provincial unemployment rate: Official vs Expanded Q3:2018
  • 34. QLFS Q3:2018 Student 40,6% Discouraged work seekers 17,8% Home-maker 16,6% Illness/disability; 10,2% Too old/young to work; 9,1% Q2:2018 to Q3:2018 % Change5 main reasons for NEA NEA M M M M 15,4 M Quarter-on-quarter changes Thousand Student 32 Homemaker -16 Illness/disability 68 Too young/too old to work -49 Discouraged work seekers -131 Other 30 Down 0,3 of a % Point Up 0,5 % Point Q2:2018 to Q3:2018 Change in levels Down 0,8 of a % Point Up 0,4 of a % Point No change 15,4 MILLION PEOPLE AGED 15 – 64 YEARS WERE NOT ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE. This is a decrease of 66 000 q/q Reasons why – Not economically active (NEA)
  • 35. QLFS Q3:2018 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS EMPLOYMENT LOSSES NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION AND TRAINING Unemployment rate increased by 0,3 of a % point to 27,5% . Absorption rate remained unchanged while labour force participation rate increased 0,4 of a percentage point Employment gains were only recorded in Finance (102 000), Trade (86 000) and Construction (27 000) Largest employment losses were observed in Private households (30 000), Mining (29 000), and Manufacturing (25 000) Of the 10,3 million persons aged 15-24 years, 31,1% were not in employment, education or training. Recap Q3:2018